Member Info for JohnLewis79

Covid-19
05:12
GMT

Total cases 1,274,325
China 81,708 +39
Total deaths 69,474
China 3331 +2

Countries 208
(Selected)

USA 336,830 + 157 (9618)
Spain 131,646 (12,461)
Italy 128,948 (15,887)
Ger 100,123 (1584)
France 92,839 (8078)
UK 47,806 (4934)
Malaysia 3662 (61)
Indonesia 2273 (198)

Total cases per 1m pop.
Spain 2816
Italy 2133
France 1422
Ger 1195
USA 1018
UK 704
Global 163
Malaysia 113
Indonesia 8

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 270
Italy 263
France 124
UK 73
USA 29
Ger 19
Global 9

Summary
Total cases 1,274,325
New cases 1463
Total deaths 69,474
New deaths 49
Recovered 264,837 (21%)

News that Italy and Spain could be over the worst of the effects of the virus sent shares higher this morning in Asia. China & SK recorded just 5 new deaths yesterday and none in Japan.
The postponing of the Oil talks sent shares below $32 (-8%) at open but have recovered to c.$34 in the pm session.

Nos:- Oil $33.53. Vix 47.
Gold $1640. Palm $628.
$ 1.233. € 1.131. PI 6091.
MSCI(W) 425. FF +133.
DF +740.
Morning all.

Covid-19
05:12
GMT

Total cases 1,202,584
China 81,669 +3
Total deaths 64,732
China 3329 +3

Countries 204
(Selected)

USA 311,635 +278 (8454)
Spain 126,168 (11,947)
Italy 124,632 (15,362)
Ger 96,092 (1444)
France 89,953 (7560)
UK 41,903 (4313)
SK 10,327 +81 (183)
Malaysia 3438 (57)
Indonesia 2092 (191)

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 2699
Italy 2061
France 1378
Ger 1147
USA 941
UK 617
SK 200
Global 154

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 256
Italy 254
France 116
UK 64
USA 26
Ger 17
Global 8
SK 4

Summary
Total cases 1,202,574
New cases 1131
Total deaths 64,732
New deaths 44
Recovered 246,638 (20%)

Malaysian Palm Oil refiners have urged Sabah State to revoke orders to shut down plantations as a prolonged closure would have dire consequences for the supply of the world's most consumed veg oil. Sabah has closed estates in 3 districts.

When the fruits cannot be harvested refineries will have no supply of cpo to be made into cooking oil and other baking fats that are essential food products.
That will force refineries to shut leading to lay offs and disruption in the supply chain. Sabah State has c.1.54 mha of planted acerage that's c.21 times the size of Singapore and contributes around 25% of Malaysias cpo output.

Covid-19
05:35
GMT

Total cases 1,117,787
China 81,639 +19
Total deaths 59,197
China 3326 +4

Countries 204
(Selected)

USA 277,475 +314 (7402)
Italy 119,827 (14681)
Spain 119,199 (11,198)
Ger 91,159 (1275)
France 82,165 (6507)
UK 38,168 (3605)
Malaysia 3333 (53)
Indonesia 1986 (181)

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 2549
Italy 1982
France 1259
Ger 1088
US 838
UK 562
Global 143

Total deaths per 1m pop
Italy 243
Spain 240
France 100
UK 53
US 22
Ger 15
Global 8

% Fatality rate.
Italy 12%
Spain 9%
UK 9%
France 8%
Global 5%
US 3%

Summary
Total cases 1,117 787
New cases 1144
Total deaths 59,157
New deaths 36
Recovered 228,975 (20%)

The Dow dropped 585 this week closing at (21052) and ytd has dropped 7486 (26%). Similar ytd nos for the 500 (23%), NSD (18%) but the Small Caps have slumped (37%). Our Small Cap sector ytd down (30%).
The US jobs nos took centre stage a rare event these last six weeks as the March report (through first 2 wks only) increased by a much wider number 700,000 losses against 100,000 forecast which ended a 100 month growth streak. It did not include the c.10m who signed on over the last 2 wks in March.

This was the worst jobs report in 11 years. While most believe the virus will die out in time, the economy might still be on life support in Q1 2021 as the world adjusts to life as we used to know it.
NY Governor Cuomo said that the city had its worst day since the virus appeared by losing 2935 people on Thursday. NY is the epicentre of the virus with more infections and fatalities than any other State. Total US cases top 277,000 with 7402 fatalities as of this morning.

Cpo averages $696.54 ytd.

Not one of palms better weeks sliding $40 (6%) on the wk. Brent fared much better gaining $5.56 (20%). Palm stocks were mixed ANG lost 13, MPE added 60, REA 7 & EPA nearly 1, DKL u/c.
The ftse finished another poor wk at 5415 off 95 the 250 down 671 to (14099). Ytd the 100 has lost 2037 (27%) & the 250, 7784 points (36%).

Indonesian Plantations have no plans to reduce working hours or other activities. Its business as usual though sensible precautions are being taken to monitor the health of estate workers and limiting the in & out movement through estates.
President Widodo has so far resisted a complete lockdown. To date there have been 1986 cases and 181 deaths. In neighbouring Malaysia the nos are 3333 & 53 deaths.

.

Crude off yesterday's highs is settling at $28.91 up over $3 from recent lows. Cpo having a bad day, off $25 (4%) and down $68 wtd (10%) probably the Friday effect as nothing material has been announced to effect a 10% fall this week.

China is almost back to normal, likely take another 4 weeks to unravel the supply chain logjams and hopefully by late summer (Q4) Europe and the US will have started recovering. Next year needs to start free of covid-19 worries!

Covid-19
06:00
GMT
Total cases 1,016,330
China 81,620 +31
Total deaths 53,238
China 3322 +4

Countries 204

(Selected)
USA 245,373 +496 (6095)
Italy 115,242 (13,915)
Spain 112,065 (10,348)
Ger 84,794 (1107)
France 59,105 (5387)
UK 33,718 (2921)

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 2397
Switz 2175
Italy 1906
Ger 1012
France 905
USA 741
UK 497
SK 196
Global 130

Total deaths per 1m pop
Italy 230
Spain 221
France 83
Switz 62
UK 43
USA 18
Ger 13
Global 7
SK 3

% death rate
Italy 12%
Spain 9%
France 9%
UK 9%
Global 3%
Switz 3%
SK 2%
Ger 1%

Summary
Total cases 1,016,330
New cases 1265
Total deaths 53,238
New deaths 71
Recovered 213,132 (21%)

Oils boosted the Dow early on c.70 of the early rise on the DJI after tweets from Trump that a deal is close to being agreed between SA & Russia.
Trump said as much as 10mbopd could be cut which sent Brent soaring 47% ($36.29) & WTI 35% (27.39) to intraday highs.
A move such as that would slam output and send prices back up to more economic levels for some oilies. .Russia dampened the mood by saying talks with SA have not begun and are not planned. Trump later reiterated his comments, but with Trump who knows? Most disbelieve as did the oil price well down on yesterday's Trump booster.

As ever its mostly bad news the mrkts have to contend with the daily drip of virus headlines of more fatalities and now a report from the BofA has forecast alarming numbers of job losses due to the virus. Unemployment rate will rise to c.16% from 4% in Feb which would mean 16-20m job losses as the coming recession will be deeper and more prolonged than first thought. New jobless claims shot up in the last two weeks of March by 4m to over 10m and 1 in 16 Americans have applied for benefits. US GDP is forecast to fall 7%, 30% &1% over the next 3 Quarters for a cumulative decline of 10% the deepest recession on record and 5 times more severe than the post-war average. As we know when America 'sneezes' the World catches cold....The race to find a vaccine continues a pace but I fear it's mostly Lab bench dreams not tested therapies at present.

The Dow ended up on the session near days high as the afternoon crowd turned buyers boosted by Chevron +11%, Exxon 7%, CAT, Cisco & Intel. Amex and Boeing leaders yesterday, laggards today both off c.6%.
At close:
DJ +469 (21413) 2%
SP +56 (2527) 2%
NS +127 (7487) 1%
R2 +14 (1086)

Asia, betwixt and between
this morning 2 up, 2 down
but looking for reasons to buy into thoroughly depressed stocks. Virus nos out of China, 31 new cases and 4 new deaths are encouraging but recessionary fears 'dog' investors. TK had been 300 up now 154 down and SH off just 9 all Pan Pacifics are lower Indonesia the exception.
Near close:-
TK -23
HK -149
SH -9
SK -1

Nos: Oil $28.60. Vix 51.
Gold $1634. Palm $629.
$ 1.237. € 1.141. PI 6043
FP 5982. MSCI(W) 431.
FF -47. DF -280.
Morning all.

Heard that only 2000 of front line NHS staff have been tested that's out of 550,000 total. Hmmm?
I also heard that 85% of staff suspected of the virus who are self isolating may not have it and could return to work once tested.
Whatever availability of kits is crucial, no kit no tests. We are not alone in that regard, America is having problems re tests and ventilators.
The availability of laboratories is also a problem and one does not want thousands of tests clogging up in queues awaiting Lab space. I'm not sure harping on about how more efficient Germany is over us improves our situation. Did they foresee how crucial it was to test, test and test again? How come they had hundreds of thousand of kits and we were scrabbling around looking in cupboards? Where did they get them from?

Makes you wonder. Check their fatalities per 1m, it's just 1% compared to our 9%. Could it be solely down to their early testing regime as their total cases are considerably more than ours (77,000) to (29,000) with a pop of 83m v 68m for UK? Must be the No1 priority now!

China is to start buying a net 90 days of oil for its emergency reserves taking advantage of the oil price crash this year.Wood McKenzie Ltd estimated that China could likely add 80m to 100m boe to reserves before it ran into logistical and operational constraints. On the shopping list will be palm oil as the country opens up factories, restaurants, shops and health care manufacturers.

The jump in UK infections and deaths is i assume non hospitalizations being recorded as these nos have lagged the headline ones. Eventually the virus will have noone to infect which is why the lockdown has been imposed I guess.
My point is how many millions are and have been virus free sitting at home? Is this on a better safe than sorry strategy? How many have had a mild dose and didnt even know it? Lots of questions few answers.

What seems certain is that China failed to report this new virus some 6 weeks after they had identified coronavirus. Had they been upfront immediately instead of harranguing the Doctors and fudging the nos the global spread might never have occurred and thousands of lives could have been saved, 6 per 1m of world population for starters!

Chinas relationship with the rest of the world will never be the same again. Trump will push for all Far Eastern US companies to return to the land of the free and become US based once again especially US pharmas.

Inc yesterdays payment cash total is c £26.7m or 9.6pps or 11%
It all helps whether the mrkt likes it or not is by the by fixated as it is on the fallout from the virus and oil price.

arrived for $14.1m.....NICE!

Covid-19
03:00
GMT

Total cases 935,957
China 81,554
Total Deaths 47,245
China 3312

Countries 203
(Selected)

USA 215,215 +212 (5110)
Italy 110,574 (13,155)
Spain 104,118 (9387)
Ger 77,981 (931)
France 56,989 (4032)
UK 29,474 (2352)
Switz 17768 (488)
SK 9976 +89 (169)
Malaysia 2908 (45)
Indonesia 1677 (169)

Total cases per 1m pop
(Selected)
Spain 2227
Switz 2053
Italy 1829
Ger 931
France 873
USA 650
UK 434
SK 195

Total deaths per 1m pop
(Selected)
Italy 218
Spain 201
France 62
Switz 56
UK 35
US 15
Ger 11
Global 6
SK 3
China 2

% Death rate
Italy 12%
Spain 9%
UK 9%
France 7%
Global 5%
China 4%
Switz 3%
SK 2%
US 2%
Ger 1%

Summary
Total cases 935,957
New cases 760
Total deaths 47,245
New deaths 53
Recovered 194,286 (21%)

Trumps dire warning of a few painful weeks ahead slammed the DJI into reverse hitting a session low of 20,784 (-1133) and the mrkt was in no mood to hear of White House projections of between 100,000 to 240,000 fatalities. All this came on the heels of a disastrous March and the worst ever Q1 in history and if it wasn't the worst ever, it sure was the quickest on record by a street!
The news has been relentlessly dire on the jobs front, the economy, the virus and Co earnings which are going to be horrendous that they may not even be reported due to factors beyond their control, force majeure if you will?

Boeing & Amex led the DJI lower for around a combined 112 points drag on the index and only Walmart was in the blue column. Propping up the laggards was Boeing down 12%. One Broker sees glimmers of light, you guessed it Goldman Sachs who have form in contrary opinions about the markets, say the 500 will see 3000 by year end. That is c.530 (21%) up from here. They say three things must happen.
a) virus spread slowing.
b) fed moves are working.
c) Improving investor sentiment
Not particularly far sighted was it? More of an Old Moore's Almanac of clairvoyancy and wishful thinking.

Oil bulls see no light at all as the crude price has tumbled 50% in March the largest % decline on record. No end in sight as the barrel overhang continues to depress prices and push up storage costs. Some barrels are being sold at $10 last seen in the late 90s low of $10.35. WTI improved and closed up 5% at $21.29. A good time to be a contrarian if you have the 'lalbs' and plenty of loose change. Airlines are an obvious pick, Southwest off $22 and Delta down $36 ytd in the US and perhaps Air France (€4.80) in Europe.
The 'afternoon' crowd right on cue are back selling squeezing the last drop out of another near 1000 point fall taking 550 off the Dow from lunch to close. Q2 starts as Q1 ended. Here's the nos.
DJ -974 (20944) 4%
SP -114 (2470) 4%
NS -340 (7361) 4%
R2 -81 (1072) 7%

Oil $26.10. Gold $1598.
Palm $646. Vix 57. $1.239.
€1.133. PI 6151. FP 6091.
MSCI(W) 426. FF +5. DF +233.
Morning all.

UK death rate rises to 8% as reported cases other than hospitalizations are catching up.
Total fatalities, 2352 as of 19:31.

Unless we get the country back up and running were headed towards another great 1931-41 Great Depression and saving the NHS will....well, forget it there will be no money left to save anything. The NHS will be starved of funds, doctors and nurses and people will have nowhere to turn to in their hour of need.

The health of the country will suffer as jobs and businesses disappear, suicides will reach proportions never envisaged and people will be left to fend for themselves and what all of that might entail is too horrible to contemplate. Banking on the State supporting you? Think again.

Most people who get the virus recover. We must not let headline grabbing news of 2,3,4,5000 deaths bankrupt the country for the consequences of that will be thousands of per cent more damaging than what's happening now. If the NHS is struggling think what might happen if we have a full blown depression. The currency will be worthless penalties for borrowing will be ruinous it'll be the Grapes of Wrath all over again.