Member Info for JohnLewis79

Futures are calling the Dow down 700+ at open today. Why wouldn't it? Up and down around and around some people are making money. If you only catch 50% or less of your pitches your probably doing ok. Not for me as the stats say 60% of traders lose money in cfds etc..., and looking at squiggly lines on a screen all'day is not my idea of a fun time and hell losing 6/10 forget it!Cpo has taken a $20 hit this morning along with Brent ($24.87) and $700 ytd av is out the window. Expect mid/low $690s to be the nos for wk 14. That's a lot better than last year which averaged c.$540.Remember MPE combined costs were $345 against cpo achieved $471 & cpko $345. They still managed to make a profit but borrowings are minuscule compared to REAs.

Futures calling a 700+ fall at open. Why wouldn't it? Follow the trend up and down around and around someone is making a lot of money, even if you catch only 50% of the swings your likely doing ok. Not my game as something like 60% of traders lose on cfds etc...,and tbh who wants to sit in front of a screen all day looking at squiggly lines, not me for sure!
Cpo no chance of averaging $700
ytd as the price is off $17 to $646.
I'm forecasting middle $690s ytd.
That's a lot better than 2019.

Quite right smokey it's a combo of the two, but everything one does has a cost personally and Nationally for better or worse.

Just in case you missed the covid-19 update here's the salient points for the UK. Your chances of dying are less than 1 in 1m. 5Catching the virus 1 in 1m so pretty good odds which are never reflected in the news headlines. For sure it's the only story in town to the exclusion of all else. The hysteria level is off the scale when morning Radio bulletins are led by the unfortunate death of a young boy.

When did you ever hear of Sepsis the UKs silent killer which puts an end to 44,000 people in England every year get reported? Probably never. On my daily walk I pass c.5 people, on one occasion a person masked and hazmatted up crossed the road to avoid me! People are frightened bombarded by the constant bad virus news unnecessarily so imo but understandable as most never compute the odds.

When the virus eventually dies out I wonder what the cost per death will be, £200k per fatality based on 5000 deaths and £1bn?
Will it have been worth the massive damage to the economy the businesses that went to the wall and the huge rise in unemployment for let's face it many jobs will be lost forever.
You might say it was worth the pain as many thousands of lives might have been saved. I guess we'll never know.

Late sell off in Asia prompts a 200+ fall on the ftse at the bell.
The prospect of 4000 looms unless we get some positive news on the virus. At least Italy is showing some better numbers.

Covid-19
05:38
GMT

Total cases 859,359
China 81,518
Total deaths 42,327
China 3303

Countries 204
(Selected)

USA 188,578 +48 (4055)
Italy 105,792 (12,428)
Spain 95,923 (8464)
Ger 71,808 (775)
France 52,128 (3523)
UK 25,150 (1789)
Switz 16,605 (433)
SK 9,887 +101 (165)
Australia 4,860 +97 (20)
Malaysia 2766 (43)
Indonesia 1528 (136)

Total cases per 1m pop.
Spain 2052
Switz 1919
Italy 1750
Ger 857
France 799
USA 570
UK 370
SK 193
Australia 191
Malaysia 85
Global 57
Indonesia 6

Total deaths per 1m pop
Italy 206
Spain 181
France 54
Switz 50
UK 26
USA 12
Ger 9
SK 3
Global 2
Australia 1
Malaysia 1

Summary
Total cases 859,359
New cases 1040
Total deaths 42,327
New deaths 25
Recovered 178,132 (21%)

The oil price crash has left crude at 18 yr lows down some 60% ytd and sinking to below $20 at one time. If you adjust for inflation oil has been more expensive than today 98% of the time since the 1940's. A perfect storm of high supply, shrinking demand and the virus has been responsible not helped by SA trying to corner the oil market.
It's not just oil. Equities in March closed 14% down and just registered its worst Q1 loss since 1987 off 6621 points (23%). The virus free fall has tanked commodities, businesses and global trade to such an extent that China could be GDP negative and US growth is forecast to be 30%+ lower in Q2. Job hiring across the country is down 9% & many large firms, JC Penney, Macy's and GAP are laying off in the thousands. When the worlds 2 largest economies are tanking the rest of the world goes into shock.
At close
DJ -410 (21917)
SP -42 (2585)
NS -74 (7700)
R2 -5 (1153)

A mixed start in Asia this morning, 3 down & 1 up
after the BOJ (Q1) survey of business sentiment called 'tankan' highlighted the gloom over the coming recession in the worlds 3rd largest economy. The index no 'zero' in October is now minus 8 such has business confidence been hammered by the virus.
Late pm
TK -350
HK -270
SH +6
SK -6

Nos:- Oil $25.82. Vix 54.
Gold $1599. Palm $647.
$1.238. €1.127. PI 6191.
FP 6283. MSCI(W) 442.
FF -154. DF -460.
Morning all.

Slightly better vols in REA since the low of 85 (18/3) & Palm $629.
Today vol was 24,772 which inc 2 lates of 2070 & 6662 from Monday. Palm held up off just $7 but looks sure to fall below $700 av ytd this week.
MPE was the highest riser up 41 after F/Y nos followed by Anglo up 17 & REA up 10. Not sure why perhaps the sector was looking cheap and oversold. Brent wasn't helping down 1% on the day. All told a good start to Q2, a lot of catching up to do.

Holy cow Carnival the silver surfers ships of delight are calling for c $6-$7bn in debt/equity, $1.25bn in equity and $1.5bn in convertibles and $3bn in senior notes. Blimey what a time to go looking for money. Seems they had little choice as it was the breakers yards next for Carnival.

Good luck with that. No strike price yet but the stock is off c.105 atm at 804 and ytd from 3600! I think the company are in dreamland if they think the old'uns will risk getting stuck on a liner again. Some brave souls will but the majority will find other ways to see out their remaining days.

A massively underwhelming prospect for holders of Carnival. I sure wouldn't want to be underwriting this offer.

Today at 12:00 am £57.56 on 84,425 volume.

MPE now up 41 (506). MPE shares outstanding 54.4m.
Major holders and the Bod control c.50% of the stock.
Add in others below 3% the free float might be less than 15% say 8m shares. Could be wildly out on the above.
I dont follow MPE religiously outside of what they report might indicate what REA will make known down the line.

From the AR
Av cpo price 2019
$566 ($598)
In Indonesia
Av cpo price $525 (tax etc)
Av cpko price
$668 ($855)

*Rev $119m ($108.6m)

*Cpo group gross margin
...............$127pt $164pt)...............

*Nav $368m ($398m)

*Combined cost of palm product $345 ($320)

..............Achieved prices..............
Cpo $471pt ($499) at Mill.
Cpko $245 ($374) -34%.

2 months into 2020
Own crops +23%
Small hold +27%
Outside +240%
Tons 180,200 (122,200)
Up 47%.

CEO Peter Hadsley-Chaplin commenting on the results said " The board remain confident that in the long term demand for palm oil is well placed to be an early beneficiary of the economic rebound that is likely to occur as the pandemic recedes."

2019 Results in brief:-
Profit $7.5m ($7.2m)
OP $16m ($19m)
Eps 11.6 (9.9)
Fin Div 12.75 (12.75)
Processed 1mt+
Group Crops 663kt +16%
Ex Rate 23.7%
Cpo output 232kt
Group val £11.01 pps.

The market liked what it saw and the sp UP 52 at 508 c.half the NAV.

Previous cases/deaths nos reported were only those of people who had been hospitalised. The new format takes into account from all sources which could lag the current data by 3 weeks so expect a jump in the nos.
Latest nos issued this morning from the ONS at 9:45 are 1455 total deaths up to 20/3 for Eng & Wales only. So since the first reported case it's been 50 days to 20/3 and we have had 1455 deaths, that's at a rate of 29 a day.

No doubt this will increase in the months to come but sooner or later somebody is going to have to decide what daily death rate is acceptable in order to get the country back to work. Should it be 30,50 or whatever is decided it must be taken and soon!
Most people recover from these viruses in pretty short order (Charlie boy was out and about after 1 week of isolation. I'm still indoors after near 4 weeks and I'm fit..ish and well).... ......Unfortunately Economies do not and the cost is multiplying at a shocking rate.

Talk of another 24 weeks of complete lockdown will finish the UK economy and take generations to a) recover and b) paid for. Are we to stay indoors if the death rate is less than 10 a day? For chrissssakes 5 people are killed daily in car accidents . Mind you may just as well because there wont be a High St left and most pubs will have closed and people will be trapped on benefits having lost their homes and got used to surviving on peanuts. This lockdown must be lifted asap even if gradually at first else the outcome will be too ghastly to contemplate.

Last 3 trades not shown up on lse:-
Buy 12,000 @88
Buy 6662 @90.60
Buy 2070 @90

If your a 'roundophobia' man, a person who fixates on round nos, 100,200 etc to help in making investment decisions cpo at average $700 is one 'roundo' pertinent to this board.

The price will have to average $697 this week to close at ytd av $700. Current $662 so looks someway away. In the grand scheme of things $700 or $650 probably means little as 'achieved' prices will be nowhere near those numbers. But
as I said cpo at $800 saw sellers and they did well so $700...who knows could be a trigger for a move lower.

Covid-19
04:30
GMT

Total cases 785,807
China 81,518 +79
Total deaths 37820
China 3305

Countries 200
(Selected)

USA 164 253 +409 (3167)
Italy 101,739 (11,591)
Spain 87,956 (7716)
Ger 66,885 (645)
France 44,550 (3024)
UK 22,141 (1408)
Switz 15,922 (359)
SK 9786 +125 (162)
Malaysia 2626 (37)
Indonesia 1414 (122)
Mexico 1094 +101 (28)

Total cases per 1m pop

Spain 1881
Switz 1840
Italy 1683
Ger 798
France 683
USA 496
UK 326
SK 191
Global 101
Mal 81
Indo 5

Total deaths per 1m pop
Italy 192
Spain 165
France 46
Switz 41
UK 21
USA 10
Ger 8
Global 5
SK 3
Mal 1

Summary
Total cases 785,807
New cases 1092
Total deaths 37,820
New deaths 37
Recovered 165,659 (21%)

US close
DJ +691 (22327) (3%)
SP +85 (2627)
NS +272 (7774)
R2 +26 (1158)

Another up day on the 'Street' (last 4 out of 5) a 3735 points gain helped steady Asian mrkts today.
The manufacturing sector in China is getting back to work not only the large State owned businesses but the small & medium sized firms who employ millions are opening their doors again.
GDP nos will look awful when released. Some say there will be no growth in China this year, others see a 4% hit to 2%. Much depends on how soon the rest of the World resumes normal daily business for if there is noone to buy China goods? Fridays jobs report out of the USA might already be priced in as horrific, so no surprises.
Crude up $1.44 to $21.53
with storage an expensive alternative now nearing capacity and shale and rig counts have collapsed.

2:00pm
TK-167
HK +253
SH +12
SK +20

Nos: Oil $26.84. Vix 57.
Gold $1635. Palm $662.
$1.233. €1.120. PI 6119.
FP 6104. MSCI(W) 445.
FF -44. DF -150.
Morning all.

Malaysia palm futures rose this morning on the BME tracking edible oils higher and a weaker ringgit (2420) / USD (556).
India is now in total lockdown for the next 3 or more weeks.

Indonesian cop exports fell in main mrkts..
China down 381,000t (57%)
EU down 188,000t (30%)
India down 141,000t (22%)
USA down 129,000t (16%)
Bangladesh UP 40,000t (52%)

Worries persist that the virus will continue into May & June when estates face the dry season and forest fires etc...

% death rate worst, best &
UK.

Worst
Italy 10,779/97,689
11%

Best
Ger 541/62,435
1%

UK
1228/19,522
6%