Member Info for JohnLewis79

Dont know what you think, but are we not in the process of bankrupting UK plc due to this virus killing mostly older citizens who in all probability would have died of influenza anyway?Not a popular viewpoint I grant you and the Chancellor must be praying this disease ends tomorrow! The UK death rate is c.9 per 1m of population. On a worst, worst case basis 10,000 deaths would be just 1 in every 6,700 of the pop (0.000148%).You have to ask is it worth the billions spent on protecting the rest of us? The charitable view is yes and I agree for by supporting people laid off work he will speed up the recovery. People will not forget. Nor will I.

Dont know what you think, but are we not in the process of bankrupting UK plc due to this virus killing mostly older citizens who in all probability would have died of influenza anyway? Not a popular viewpoint I grant you and the Chancellor must be praying this disease ends tomorrow! The UK death rate is c.9 per 1m of population. On a worst, worst case basis 10,000 deaths would be just 1 in every 6,700 of the pop (0.000148%). You have to ask is it worth the billions spent on protecting the rest of us? The charitable view is yes and I agree for by supporting people laid off work he will speed up the recovery. People will not forget. Nor will I.

Covid-19
04:36 GMT.
Total cases 532,236
China 85,594 +19
Total deaths 24,090
China 3292 +5

Countries 199
(Selected)
USA 85,594 +159 (1300)
Italy 80,589 (8215)
Spain 57,786 (4365)
Ger 43,938 (267)
UK 11,653 (578)
SK 9,332 +91 (139)
Malaysia 2031 (24)
Indonesia 893 (78)

Total cases per 1m Pop.
(Selected)
Switz 1365
Italy 1333
Spain 1230
Ger 524
France 447
USA 259
SK 182
UK 172

Total deaths per 1m Pop
Italy 136
Spain 93
France 26
Switzerland 22
UK 9
USA 4
Ger 3
SK 3
China 2
Mal 1

Summary
Total cases 532,263
New cases 454
Total deaths 24,090
New deaths 22
Cases per 1m/pop 68
Deaths per 1m/pop 3
Recovered 124,349 (23%)

Asian mrkts had priced in the 'stimulus' package in NY and rises were small and scattered except the ASX 200 which fell near 3%. Most investors are extremely nervous and expect further discouraging news as Q1 earnings nos are reported.
Revenues and the bottom line will be hit and oil at sub $20 will push mrkts lower. Crude (WTI) stood at $22.87 on the NYME.
Chief worry now is storage which is almost at capacity. The Dow hit its recent 52wk low of 18213 and could test this level in the months to come. We ain't out of the doo-doo by a long chalk.
Towards close:
TK +300
HK +110
SH +25
SK -4

Nos: Oil $26.54. Vix 61.
Gold $1640. Palm $656.
$ 1.224. € 1.107. PI 6121.
FP 6514. MSCI(W) 447.
FF -85. DF -338.

Another gang busting day on mrkts the ftse mired in the red most of the day turned up late on to close at 5816 (+127) the 250 climbed 561 to 15381, vraiment tres bien..

As London closed the Dow from the bell was trading up 1043 at (22245) well below the intraday high of 22419 despite increasing infections & fatalities, the US is now the epicentre of the virus. A colossal 3.3m jump in jobless claims for week of March 21st, easily surpassing the previous high of 695,000 in 1982, went by with barely a backward glance from NYSE. The huge rise surprised analysts who estimated c.1m new claims. The rescue package does include posting $1000 cheques to certain claimants and the lost revenue compounded by the give away could cost NY $15bn worst way, multiply that by the other 49 States!!!

The Dow well off days high is still likely to record a "3 in a row rise" last seen back on Feb 3rd when it had a 3-peat gaining 1095. Five days later the DJI hit a record high of 29,951 and all was set fair to blow past 30,000 until....
Nevertheless Q1 has seen many records busted in the corona mrkt....and the Gold Medal goes to the S&P 500 which took just 16 sessions to plunge into bear territory a tad faster than the Oct '29 crash took. Many are bemused at these wild swings up and down when, given economies have all but seized up you should see 1000+ rises. Here's my take. Stock exchanges are future discount machines and as such will hit bottom before economies do and all
investors are trying to do is buy near these lows hence the big upward moves in shares.

In the cut and thrust of the mrkt, Boeing cold shouldered and unloved since the MAX Jet disasters led the risers on the big board for the second day, adding $22 to $180 up 14% and very much back on investor buy lists.
However there's ways to go for Boeing as, a) will people have confidence to fly on the aircraft? b) will airlines buy the airliner?
c) slotting into routes could take time and d) flights would be at much reduced rates and ticket subsidies will cost Boeing a ton of money. Oh well there's always Uncle Sam and a $60bn advance to tide the Co over presumably until the MAX Jet becomes economical to keep in the sky.

The Dow had a bumpy last couple of hours but closed at a satisfying 22,552 (+1352) a new one session record following a 500 jump in the final few minutes. That was a threepeat of 1847 points another record. Wow what a three days!
At close:
DJ +1352 (22552) 6%
SP +155 (2630) 6%
NS + 413 (7798) 6%
R2 +70 (1180) 6%
to be cont...

The money tree printing presses are working overtime going flat out to bail everyone out which essentially inflates the bubble....again! Thus destroying value of money.
So what price Gold when inflation is rampant and the USD is crumbling? Last I knew you couldn't print Gold but it will surely become the reserve currency.

Is all the bad economic news to come priced into the 250 at 14800? I very much doubt it...If we're still battling the virus in 6 months time I can see the 250 at 10800 or lower, that's at 2012 era.
You might think that's fanciful but since Dec 30th, its dropped 7240 or 33%. The absolute low is c.3890 March 2003.
One rules nothing out in these volatile emotional driven markets. Do I think the index will be trashed that low? No, I don't but 10800 that's on the cards which is 27% down from c.here.

...know where I can buy shares in
the Dog Renting Business? Its booming round my place!

....know where I can buy shares in
the Dog Renting business......its
booming.

Oil prices are slipping back. No surprise there as usually a lower oil price is good for the consumer as it leaves more cash in his pocket to spend elsewhere. Good for him. Good for the wider economy.
Ain't happening now with people locked indoors and few driving, demand has tanked leaving prices c.$23 & $26.94 headed South. US shale is in a perilous position massively over leveraged their future may depend on Donald having a pow wow with his mate MBS.
That would be preferable to slapping a tax on SA oil or restricting shale output. Loans from banks are being rolled over for now but down the road if WTI sinks sub $20 the Banks will become oil companies and that would be very bad for palm biodiesel.

Another down start for investors. As WB said, " Socks or Stocks, buy when cheap."
He made his money that way buying quality $s for cents and not the one puff discarded cigar butts that I used to years ago.
My bank has reopened so am off to see if i have any money in my account. One unexpected benefit of the virus....I'm not spending any money atm!

If cpo stays around $655 until Fri close the price will just stay above $700 ytd. Pretty remarkable given many commentators are calling crude at $10 due to massive supply demand imbalances. The virus ain't helping either!

Chinas partial recovery, Malaysia estate lockdown and India heading that way is helping in that regard. H1 is not looking particularly good but by Q4, hopefully we will be back on track.
A reminder cpo Q1 2019 averaged c.$542 and REA couldn't turn a coin. But 'achieved' prices are way lower than the headline price.
In H1 REAs achieved price for cpo was $430 (-20%) & cpko $590 (-40%) resulting in a $29.5m loss at H1. Also not helped by the IDR strength v USD, low prices and a negative FX swing of $16m which holed the numbers.

There's always something to screw up the results low prices, el Nino, coronav, weather & Tom Cobley no doubt. I guess most investors say the same about other companies they are invested in, an occupational par for the course. It never changes.

Covid-19
06:10 GMT
Total cases 471,794
China 81 285 +67
Total deaths 21,297
China 3287 +6

Countries 198
(Selected)
Italy 74,386 (7503 deaths)
USA 68,489 +278 (1032)
Spain 49,515 (3647)
Ger 37,323 (206)
UK 9539 (465)
SK 9241 +104 (131)
Malaysia 1796 (20)
Indonesia 790 (58)

Total cases per 1m Pop
Italy 1230
USA 207
Spain 1059
Ger 445
UK 140
SK 180
Malaysia 55
Indonesia 3
China 56

Total deaths per 1m Pop
Italy 124
USA 3
Spain 78
Ger 2
UK 7
SK 3
China 2

Summary
Total cases 471,794
New cases 826
Total deaths 21,297
New deaths 19
Recovered 114,703 (24%)

Covid-19
06:10 GMT
Total cases 471,794
China 81 285 +67
Total deaths 21,297
China 3287 +6

Countries 198
(Selected)
Italy 74,386 (7503 deaths)
USA 68,489 +278 (1032)
Spain 49,515 (3647)
Ger 37,323 (206)
UK 9539 (465)
SK 9241 +104 (131)
Malaysia 1796 (20)
Indonesia 790 (58)

Total cases per 1m Pop
Italy 1230
USA 207
Spain 1059
Ger 445
UK 140
SK 180
Malaysia 55
Indonesia 3
China 56

Total deaths per 1m Pop
Italy 124
USA 3
Spain 78
Ger 2
UK 7
SK 3
China 2

Summary
Total cases 471,794
New cases 826
Total deaths 21,297
New deaths 19
Recovered 114,703 (24%)

US (close)
DJ +496 (21201)
SP +28 (2476)
NS -33 (7384)
R2 +14 (1110)
A wild frenetic day on US markets the Dow up over 1100 points tanked in the last 30 mins losing over half the gains due to reports the rescue package had hit a snag... since passed. The days range was 1481 points. Currently the Dow is 8350 points (28.25) off it's all time high 13 days ago.

In Asia a mixed picture the Nikkei is down 683 the others flat to slightly up. If Tokyo is fixated over the virus there were only 171 new cases and 11 deaths in China & SK yesterday.
TK -683
HK -68
SH -5
SK +30

Nos: Oil $27.23. Vix 64.
Gold $1624. Palm $659.
$ 1.186. € 1.087. PI 6034.
FP 5983. MSCI(W) 428.
FF -82. DF -140.
Morning all.

Wuhan the city at the epicentre of the virus is set to end the lockdown on April 8th, which has kept its 11m citizens confined to barracks for 76 days.
However many residents fear the city is not clear of the virus and do not believe the authorities who tend to fudge the nos and distort the data.
They fear a "boomerang" effect could reactivate the virus by allowing residents out too early who may still have the virus but dont know it. Also international travellers returning to China could bring the virus back into the country.

On April 8th people will be permitted to travel across and outside Wuhan to visit relatives by car or by other means. Train services into and out of Wuhan have started in a limited fashion. The proof of how successful the Govt have been will be seen in the pudding over the next few months. The world will be looking on.

A known shorter of stocks had big shorts out on a pharma company and had placed a down bet at c.$210.
When the stock hit $8 she was asked "why have you not closed your position?" The reply "theres further to go."
Kinda what I feel about current UK mrkt levels especially the London 250.

Waste of time going to M&S. There were about 20 people buying food not that I could see any. The meat shelfs were empty apart from some scraggy looking chicken pieces. Likewise the veg. Fruit & bread was plentiful.

The only shelfs with any produce were the convenience ready meals section. I looked at a cottage pie I swear 3 spoonfuls tops cost £4.50. FFS I can make a cottage pie with veg that would make me 3 meals for c.£6.
If there was an Iceland within a half mile that place would shut up shop in a week. The place is a total rip off....never again!

I wonder what part of the economy rates a 700 point advance in one and a half sessions?
Must be the casinos cause if you believe the UK economy is going to show any growth for this year or next you must believe in fairies.
Not to put too fine a point on it the UK economy will be paralysed if this virus extends through the summer which would likely show negative 2020 growth. No doubt the ftse will be back over 7000 coining it in.....Happy days.

Am off for my daily walk, think I'll go a bit further and walk down Britain's worst High Rd as voted in 2002.
Streatham High Road has improved a bit since then..... M&S Food Hall is part of a new complex of expensive flats built on the site of the old Mecca Bowling Alley just up from the Locarno/Cats Whiskers dance hall long closed and the grand old historic Streatham Theatre now a run down two bob 'cashino' outfit. Hopefully M&S will have some shelf life if the locusts are still in bed.

Covid-19
05:50 GMT

Total cases 422,966
China 81,218 +47
Total deaths 18,906
China 3281 +4

Countries 197
(Selected)
Italy 69,176 (6820 deaths)
US 54,881 +58 (782)
Spain 42,058 (2991)
Germany 32,991 (159)
SK 9137 +100 (126)
UK 8077 (422)
Malaysia 1624 (16)
Indonesia 686 (55)

Total cases % 1m pop
(Selected)
Italy 1144
Spain 900
Ger 394
SK 178
USA 166
UK 119
Global 54

% death rate
Italy 9.8%
Spain 7%
UK 5%
US 1.4%
SK 1.3%
Ger 0.5%

Summary:
Total cases 422,966
New cases 384
Total deaths 18,906
New deaths 15
Recovered 109,143 (26%)
Total flu deaths this year
112,197.