Member Info for JohnLewis79

Covid-19
03:00
GMT

Total cases 722,196
China 81,470 +31
Total deaths 33,976
China 3304 +4

Countries 199
(Selected)

USA 142,178 +131 (2484)
Italy 97,689 (10779)
Spain 80,110 (6803)
Ger 62,435 (541)
France 40,174 (2606)
UK 19,522 (1228)
Switz 14,829 (300)
SK 9,661+78 (158)
Malaysia 2,470 (35)
Indonesia 1,285 (114)

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 1713
Switz 1713
Italy 1616
Ger 745
France 615
USA 430
UK 288
SK 188
Global 92
Malaysia 76
Indonesia 5

Total deaths per 1m pop.
Italy 178
Spain 146
France 40
Switz 35
UK 18
USA 8
Ger 6
Global 4
SK 3
Mal 1

Summary
Total cases 722,196
New cases 250
Total deaths 33,976
New deaths 10
Recovered 151,766 (21%)

Other pandemics % death
infection rates.
SARS 774/8096 (9.6%)
MERS 858/2494 (34%)
COR 33976/722196 (4.7%)

Stocks in Asia got off to the ever predictable follow my leader merry'-go-round of falling prices this morning. Goodness me why would anybody practice some independent thinking? Unfortunately mrkts rarely practice wilful thought, preferring like lemmings to rush headlong over the cliff. Those taking a contrarian stance are swamped by the mad rush for the exits fearing to be caught in the fire sale of assets.
It's been said, "Men think in herds, it will be seen they go mad in herds, while they recover their senses slowly and one by one." How true!

At mid'day Far Eastern mrkts are marked down between 2% & 4% troubled by the rise in global infections and another sell off in NY on Friday (-916). Yet the DJI gained 2463 over the week thanks to 2113 points gain on Monday. Ytd all US mrkts are in bear territory and heading towards recession. Back in January Q1 earnings were pencilled in at 4% now it's 4% down as many US companies have withdrawn from making revenue or profit forecasts. Crude $20.40 & the 10yr note slipped to 0.65%. These volatile plunges and sky rockets invariably by the bloody machines follow the vole like lack of arbitrary thinking by many investors. Things never change do they?

Mid'day
TK -626
HK -328
SH -43
SK -26

Nos: Oil$ 26.65. Vix 66.
Gold $1626. Palm $656.
$1.236. € 1.115. PI 6025.
IDR 16,300. MSCI(W) 436.
FF -50. DF -133.
Morning all.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

Germany is testing 500,000 a week and as they started early their death rate is a fraction of Italy or Spain. The UK is planning to increase to 25,000 a day, wer'e always late to the start line. Why? When we have one of the best health systems in the world, some of the the best pharmaceutical companies and our scientific base is second to none.That debate will be for another time. Meanwhile millions more people must be tested as soon as front line staff have been tested, for many in the medical profession have been self isolating not knowing if they have been infected or not. Get them the equipment so they can return to work.Local Surgeries should reopen asap to start testing their patients. If we had been prepared two months ago we might not be in this 'ghost town'situation and would not have paralysed our economy by shutting down UK plc.

Cpo prices are expected to trade lower next wk on Sector fundamentals and March supply/demand estimates
ahead of MPOB data due on April 10th. Cpo prices must fall if it is to regain competitiveness v soybean in the cash mrkt.

AmSpec Agri Malaysia indicated export of cpo for March fell 11.7% month on month to 866,270t from 981,073t in Feb.
Meanwhile several estates
in Sabah (Northern Brunei)
have ceased operations due to a number of workers testing positive for covid-19.
Wkly turnover decreased to 305,181 lots from 479,493 lots, while open interest* fell to 262,730 contracts from 303,338 contracts.

*Open interest is the nos of outstanding contracts held by traders at close. It measures the activity level in the futures mrkt. Increasing Open Interest means new money is flowing in and vice versa.
A reminder cpo prices have averaged $700 ytd but 'achieved' prices will be a lot lower perhaps enough to push some estates into losses.

Covid-19
05:07
GMT

Total cases 664,103
China 81,439
Total deaths 30,883 +45
China 3300 +5

Countries 199
(Selected)

USA 123,750+172 (2277)
Italy 92,472 (10,023)
Spain 73,235 (5982)
Germany 57,695 (433)
France 37,575 (2314)
UK 17,089 (1019)
Switz 14,076 (264)
SK 9583 +105 (152) +8
Australia 3969 +334 (16)
Malaysia 2320 (27)
Indonesia 1555 (102)

Total cases per 1m pop
Switz 1626
Italy 1556
USA 1529
Ger 689
France 576
USA 374
UK 252
SK 187
Australia 156
Malaysia 72
Indonesia 4

Total deaths per 1m pop
Italy 166
Spain 128
France 35
Switz 31
UK 15
USA 7
Ger 5
Globally 5
China 4
SK 3
Australia 1

Summary
Total cases 664,103
New cases 1024
Total deaths 30,883
New deaths 26
Recovered 142,361 (21%)

Can you believe that as of last week flights were arriving at UK airports from all parts of the world with nary a ''Hows your Father?" and some of us have been in lockdown for weeks. Given we were so slow out of the box in responding to the events at Wuhan, you wont be surprised we were welcoming all comers with open arms. To make matters worse I read the Govt suspected in early Jan that the virus was alive and spreading among people!

Apparently they were following the 'model' devised for the SARS pandemic which basically said "keep calm and carry on" that the Govt would not impose lockdowns and if your well enough keep working sort of what Trump is saying.
So what changed? Seems Imperial College submitted a report that if the Govt followed the SARS game theory the UK would condemn upwards of 100,000 people to die. Boris panicked at the thought and went the total Wuhan exclusion route....rather be safe than sorry and out of a job.

This has put untold pressure on our NHS already under severe strain due to staff and financial shortages. Routine cancer and other life saving operations are being ditched to accommodate the virus infected, many of whom are elderly and with existing health problems who are likely to die. It's not a choice I would like to make so we must make the best of a bad job. The time for recriminations will come when there is no'-one left to be infected.

God knows what the cost to the Nation of the bail out of UK plc will be? Some say 15% of GDP some a lot more, whatever 40% of $2.825 trillion (£2.280 trn) is a ton of money (£912 bn) and will leave the Govt finances sorely strained for future generations to pick up the tab. Easy to sit indoors and be wise after the event but on balance I think the Govt have blocked a few Yorkers, and swatted away some bumpers. I only wish they had acted 6 weeks ago.

Heard from our Ma'jor- Do'mo H?

Morning guys 'n gals this virus has some very good benefits, well to me that is. Firstly I'm not spending much, secondly i'm on half rations and thirdly i'm a lot fitter, no shortness of breath, no cramp, stitches, pretty much Zero Mostel!

Since the Freedom Pass I have become a right lazy bones taking the bus everywhere. No longer.
My morning walk is c.2 miles and since starting, my times have been:-
44 mins
42 mins
41 mins
37 mins
Outside the 34 mins average for 2 miles but I'm still on my L Plate. My legs almost seized up after my first walk especially the calfs but by Day 4 I hardly feel them. There's something in this walking lark!

Q1 Worlds major markets.

All % nos are down.
Ftse 100 (27%)
All share (28%)
250 (32%)
SC (31%)
Aim (31%)

MSCI(W) (23%)

DJI (24%)
S&P (21%)
NS (16%)
R2 (32%)

TK (18%)
HK (17%)
SH (9%)
SK (21%)

I'll spare you bunks I'm all crashed out.

Covid-19
05:23
GMT

Total cases 597,458
China 81,394 +54
Total deaths 27,370
China 3295 +3

Countries 199
(Selected)
USA 104,256 +130 (1704)
Italy 86,498 (9134)
Spain 65,719 (5138)
Ger 50,871 (351)
France 32,964 (1995)
UK 14,543 (759)
Switz 12,828 (23)
SK 9,478 +146 (144)
Israel 3460 +425)
Malaysia 2,161 (26)
Indonesia 1,046 (87)

Total cases per 1m pop
Switz 1494
Italy 1431
Spain 1406
Ger 607
France 505
Israel 400
USA 315
UK 214
SK 185
Globally 77
Malaysia 67
China 57
Indonesia 4

Total deaths per 1m pop
Italy 151
Spain 110
France 31
Switz 27
UK 11
USA 5
Ger 4
SK 3
Globally 3
China 2
Israel 1

Summary
Total cases 597,458
New cases 1,146
Total deaths 27,370 (4.6%)
New deaths 29
Recovered 133,373 (22%)

Thus ends a miserable first Q for markets and share prices. The year started full of promise a resurgence in palm and other commodities, stocks boosted by the strong US economy and a trade deal signed with China.
And then out of the blue an unknown virus has flattened mrkts, sent economies headlong into recession and billions of people are locked in doors for months on end.
China is showing signs of returning to normal but here in Europe were behind the curve with likely 3 or more months of pain to come. Still industry and the financial mrkts continue to function and figs need reporting however bad.
Q1
Wks1-13Close
Anglo 468 (-20%)
DKL 2.05 (-44%)
Epa 0.385 (-49%)
Mpe 470 (-34%)
Rea 89 (-47%)

Wks 1-13
Close
Cpo $668 (-16%)
Cpko $802 (+7%)
Crude oil $27.54 (-57%)
Gold $1631 (+7%)
Silver $17.35 (u/c)
Cpo av $700.28

Wks 1-13
KLPL 6134 (-8%)
UK(FP) 6192 (-24%)

Wks 1-13
£$ 1.239 (-6%)
£€ 1.119 (-5%)
$IDR 16140 (+16%)

WB rarely if ever talks about Gold and as far as I know has none stashed in BH or under his bed in Omaha.
Obviously it's an asset that a) will never produce anything and b) hopefully someone will pay more for it than you did....Tulip fever comes to mind as in owning Gold, requires an ever expanding pool of buyers who fear paper money and other asset classes in the hope that others will want it in the future and bid up the price.

Gold has always been a favourite of investors especially at times like these but has major shortcomings. It's not of much use apart from decoratively and unproductive outside of a little industrial utility both of which could not soak up new production and if you own 1 ounce of Gold now you will still own 1 ounce in 10 years time whatever the price.

I read somewhere that if all the Gold were melded together it would form a cube c.70ft per side and at $ c.1700 per ounce would be worth $10 trillion give or take. Look at it this way how many Exxons would that buy? I reckon about 50-60 producing c.$20bn in earnings or $1.2trn annually. Which would you choose? The 70ft non productive cube or the Exonns? And in the years to come those Exonns will have paid out millions in dividends and likely hold many billions in other assets, whereas your pyramid of Gold has just sat there doing nothing not earning a red cent. I can't compound the value of the World's Gold stock of 190,000 tons for the next 20 or more years but I bet it's less than the Exonns over any long'term time frame.

The current virus terror has struck fear into currency based assets held by investors and fear of these collapsing causes investors to stampede into sterile Gold, I'm thinking because it's easy and 'that's what Daddy told you to do.' Remember "Cash is King" when the '87 and '08 crash were at their height? It was hoarded or spent on Gold instead of being used to buy up cheap distressed assets which have multiplied many times over the years.

Whatever the 'Exonns' of this World, will cont to deliver services and goods wanted by citizens in ever greater quantities for years to come. Their value will increase by their capacity to produce what people need, be it oil, bubble gum or Big Macs.
Just as the DJI increased from c.66 to c.10800 in the 100 years from 1900 (1626%), Gold has risen over the same 100 years from $21 to $252 (1200%). Add in dividends, scrip & asset values from the Dow and it's no contest. However its sensible to have a spread, some in Gold but not too much.

Further to my post of Thrs 26th, 12.20am. The US Fed Reserve will be printing as much as $5trn
before this mess is cleared up.
Actually it's the Bureau of Engraving and Printing that prints the money and since early 1900s the Fed issues the cash.
Big gainer will be Gold current $1620 up 7% ytd but will go a lot higher imo. Trouble is not many Pure Gold stocks are quoted in London. Two I know of because I was tempted to invest a year ago are Centamin 129 down 8 today and Polymetal 1276 off 29. Both are up ytd 84 & 57 respectively. I did hold Hochschilds a silver stock for about 2 months broke even if a small profit. I'm not tipping them as you know I wouldn't give myself a tip! Offered as info only.

Indonesias cpo exports plunged 35% to 2.39mt in Jan on a monthly basis. Countries cutting imports were the EU, US, China & India all while cpo prices rose to $830 from $787 in Dec.
Indonesias output rose 3.5mt from 3.45mt in Dec and total output in 2019 was up 9% to 47.3mt. Hard to see those nos being replicated in 2020.

As at 27th March £56.90 on 52,957 volume.

Since the UKs first reported coronavirus case on...
Jan 31st
REA 171
Cpo $748
Crude $57.20

March 27
REA 87
Cpo $661
Crude $25.94

Stats %
REA down 49%
Cpo down 12%
Crude down 54%

Virus(UK)
10 per day.
9 deaths per 1m pop
172 cases per 1m pop

Mrkts sink on who'd be wanting to hold these over the wk/end?
Will give the gutter press plenty of time to dig up, invent more virus scare stories like the SCUM headline " 1 Brit dies every 13 minutes" Really?

At that rate we would have had c.6738 deaths since the first death was reported end January. Last I checked we hadn't had 1000. Yer usual headline seeking irresponsible 'ollox reporting. Never let the truth get in the way of a good story!

....gobblegook RNS. Thanx for that..