Member Info for JohnLewis79

The Dow got off to a rocky start following mrkts in London and Asia. The chaotic events in oils continued WTI recovering from (-$37) to trade c.$16boe and Brent c.$20. While the 'surplus' to requirements cont oils are heading only one way. At close WTI traded at $11.27 & Brent $17 its lowest level in nearly 20 years. It's worth noting that oils represent only 2.6% of the 500 val but it's the world importance as an energy force that assumes its constant headline grabbing
"oil cheaper than bottled water"

Early dealings saw the 30 slump 600 as investors cont to dump oils and other asset classes with 29/30 Dow stocks in the red only Travellers in the plus column. Adding to the pain US Home Sales came in 9% lower in March and have frozen stiff as the 'stay-at- homes' hoard cash and watch box sets. On the Co front Coca Cola topped analysts est for top and bottom lines with eps gaining 7c, shares slipped $1 to $45. The Co said vols were 25% lower going forward and Q2 will be materially impacted due to the uncertain outlook.

United Airlines became the first Co to test the public offering mrkts. They are offering c.40m shares at $26.50 hoping to raise $1bn. Treasury are meeting their pay roll to the tune of $4bn. Delta & AT&T report today
Netflix said new paid subscribers had almost doubled in Q1 to push revs to nearly $6bn but warned nos would fall when the lockdown ended.
At close:
DJ - 632 (23019) 3%
SP -87 (2737) 3%
NS -297 (8263) 3%
R2 -28 (1185) 2%

Stocks in Asia are lower relieved the May contract for oil has expired. June nos are looking better WTI at $11 and Brent $17. The mood is downbeat on low vols despite the virus beginning to wane globally.
TK -241
HK -134
SH -4
SK -16

Nos: Oil $16.22. Vix 45.
Gold $1701. Palm $620.
$ 1.228. € 1.132. PI 6094.
FP 6495. MSCI(W) 461.
FF +30. DF +90.
Morning all.

If your worried about the collapse in Oil prices and demand fear not for oil in place and natural gas will not be running out anytime soon. So plenty of time for demand and prices to revert to normal.Heres the fig for nos of boe left:-..............1,511,102,840,000.....................................or....................................................43years.....................Natural gas is estimated to last for at least another......................153 years...................

Crude heading just one way....its on the down escalator currently $23.60 c.$43 down ytd (65%) and c.9% this morning.
Cannot give the stuff away as depots are full, hiring tankers for storage is hugely expensive, if you can find any and buyers are few. A complete shutdown is the only way out until all this surplus oil is absorbed. Shalers wont like it but most of them have upped sticks and thrown away the keys anyway.
BP and Shell are both off
5% this morning. BP is back to prices last seen in May 1996!

London's ftse called c.100 down at the bell following falls in NY & Asia. Sentiment is not at rock bottom but not far off it especially if your 'locked' into oils and are loathe to take a loss.
Big Oil has been hammered thanks to the unprecedented fall in demand from an event in a back street mrkt somewhere in China, Wu where ffs! Shell ytd is down 40% & BP off 36% both will have holed many funds values as they are core dividend holdings.
Palm is down 4% ($637) mirroring the slump in crude which makes palm less competitive with gasoil for those wanting to switch.

So, was this a Black Swan event? Nah, I dont think so, more a Black Bat event!

Covid-19
04:00
GMT

Total cases 2,481,866
China 82,758 +11
Total deaths 170,455
China 4632

Countries
(Selected)

USA 792,913 (42,517)
Spain 200,210 (20,852)
Italy 181,228 (24,114)
France 155,383 (20,625)
Germany 147,065 (4862)
UK 124,743 (16,509)*
Indonesia 6760 (590)
Malaysia 5425 (89)
S.Africa 3300 (58)
Cameroon 1163 (42)
* 449 deaths yesterday

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 4282
Italy 2997
USA 2395
France 2380
UK 1838
Ger 1755
Global 318

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 446
Italy 399
France 310
UK 243
USA 128
Ger 58
Global 22

* fatality rate
Italy 13%
France 13%
UK 13%
Spain 10%
US 5%
Ger 3%

Summary
Total cases 2,481,866
New cases 1362
Total deaths 170,455
New deaths 58
Recovered 651,540 (26%)

For the first time in history the benchmark price of WTI fell below $ zero trading on the spot mrkt at (-$37) as traders rushed to unwind their 'longs' as May contracts expire today. Anyone long must take the physical and short must deliver. Effectively at less than nothing means paying customers to take the oil off your hands as Storage capacity at Cushing, Oklahoma is full so traders are desperate to roll over contracts at a very expensive premium to June futures trading at $22.63. As recently as Jan Brent and WTI were worth over $60 a barrel, if it was beer, one barrel would contain c.340 pints. Now it's cheaper than water, well was at one time. Some quick off the mark dealers have locked in an instant $20+ profit taking the physical oil.

The chaos on NYMEX spread into US equities the 30 trading in a 700 point range closed down 592 pummeled by drops in energy stocks, Exxon and Chevron off 5% & 4% and Boeing the dog of the day down 7% propped up the fallers. Techs led the few gainers, Cisco and IBM were two along with Amazon ($2410) & Netflix ($441) both hitting record highs after close. The Nsadq had traded 30 in credit but was sandbagged by the afternoon crowd losing c.100 in late trade.

On the virus front NY State Gov Cuomo said they were past the high point with fatalities dropping for the first time. Overall US deaths increased slightly over the previous day. In the last 4 weeks job losses have hit a staggering 22m which will help to tank US GDP c.30% in Q2 with a grim outlook into Q3/4 as earnings across whole sectors are crushed.
At close:
DJ -592 (23650)
SP -51 (2823)
NS -89 (8561)
R2 -16 (1213)

Chaotic oil futures (since recovered to c.$21) pulled Asian bourses down. Its expected to be the last class to recover from the lockdown as planes and autos are idled globally. Palm is off 5% following crude. All Pan Pacifics are lower.
Late on prices...
TK -310
HK -553
SH -39
SK -37

Nos:- Oil $25.27. Vix 44.
Gold $1704. Palm $637.
$1.240. €1.144. PI 6244.
FP 6721. MSCI(W) 475.
IDR 15580. FF -108.
DF -270.
Morning all.

How bad is the oil crisis? Look no further....Netflix worth more than Exxon Mobile the second bigest oily in the World.
Unbloodybelieveable!

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 2,407,439
China 82,747 +12
Total deaths 165,073
China 4362

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 764,265 (40,565)
Spain 198,674 (20,453)
Italy 178,972 (23,660)
France 152,894 (19,718)
Germany 145,742 (4642)
UK 120,067 (16,060)*
Ireland 15,251 (610)
Indonesia 6578 (582)
Malaysia 5389 (89)
South Africa 3158 (54)
Cameroon 1017 (42)
* 596 deaths yesterday.

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 4249
Ireland 3089
Italy 2960
France 2342
USA 2309
UK 1769
Ger 1739
Global 309

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 437
Italy 391
France 301
UK 237
Ireland 124
USA 123
Global 21

Summary
Total cases 2,407,439
New cases 864
Total deaths 165,073
New deaths 42
Recovered 625,202 (26%)

A quiet start to the week in Asia which ignored the big rises on the 'Street' on Friday. China cutting its lending rates was largely dismissed. The 1 year rate was cut by 20 basis to 3.85% and the 5 yr by 10 to 4.65%. This was the second cut this year to support the battered economy and encourage businesses and workers to bump start industries.

Most Asian mrkts are higher only the Nikkei and Aust are in the red. With no economic news to move stocks and no momentum for mrkts to move either way investors noted US futures for trade pointers. Late on Sunday evening Dow futures were headed lower and crude contracts for June delivery slumping 15%.
Prices for future delivery have risen above the spot market a situation known as a Contango which encourages traders to store oil. On Friday WTI settled at 18.29 on NYME the June contract $28.08.
Near close:
TK -162
HK +40
SH +9
SK +4

Nos: Oil $27.71. Vix 38.
Gold $1699. Palm $666.
$ 1.248. €1.148. PI 6397.
IDR 15466. MSCI(W) 480.
FF +60. DF +8.
Morning all.

Topping the shock jock phone-ins tomorrow will be the news that the over 70s will be confined indoors until a vaccine has been found to work.....best of luck with that thay ain't found one for SARS yet....
So, breathe a sigh of relief if your 69 and 11 months old! Currently there are 7.4m over 70s in England and 8.4m seniors in the UK. It's going to be interesting to see how they hope to police this, hell I'm 69 and have been for years!

Stupid and unworkable. The Govt will soon be leaf-letting the pop to dob-in any old looking codger having a pint in his local to the authorities. We the people are taking the pain for the Govts complete lack of response in early January to the deadly virus in China. As Boris slept peacefully in his country mansion the silent killer was striking at the heart of this country coming in on planes, trains & automobiles. It's now being called the 'lost 5 weeks'.
Han****'s remarks that '
" the risk to the UK public is low" and others "we are well prepared for any new disease" should have sent alarm bells ringing in Parliament and the wider country.

While Boris dithered backed by a supine cabinet, Italy was in a full blown deadly crisis and still the UK was not on a war footing completely unprepared for the pandemic to come with stockpiles of emergency kits run down or out of date. The warnings were repeated throughout Feb especially on testing which Germany had started even before the UK Govt had thought about it and in an act of crass folly sent c.300,000 items of protective equipment to China.
You can read the full horror story in today's Sunday Times.

Last 24 hours fatality numbers...

Global 5848

USA 1857
UK 888
France 642
Spain 637
Italy 482
Ger 186
China 0

Spain has extended its lockdown through to end May virtually cancelling its 'Holiday' season this year.

According to Energy and Restructuring firm Hayes and Boones, 50 energy cos have filed for bankruptcy inc 33 O&G companies,15 oilfield service companies and 2 midstream firms. The law firm warns that if the crisis in 2020 continues the axe will fall on debt ridden oilfield service companies who just in the US carry debt c.$32bn coming due between 2020-2024. Few realise what a huge part this sector plays in the oil industry.

Just as a VW or Merc will not leave the factory without a guaranteed parts supplier, so O&G expo companies will down tools without an oilfield service parts supplier on hand to supply and mend equipment. No driller in his right mind regardless of the oil price will operate a field without spare parts or replacements to order, so without the oilfield service sector output from fields will stall within months. Big companies like Haliburton have already warned of the coming contraction.
The poor financial state of the Oil field sector is well represented by the
favourite benchmark the VanEck Vectors Oil Service ETF which is down 70% ytd v the SP500. One UK O&G report has already stated the financial contagion is threatening North Sea jobs, shrinking output and undermining security.

As the OPEC++ output cuts and bankcruptcys gather pace a vast part of the overproduction is being removed and the oil glut shrinking to a more manageable level. Some analysts are expecting growth in late 2020.
Currently few see this being a possibility such is the despondency.
Once supply /demand rights itself and the OP rallies above $50 oilers can restart drilling and exploration.

Covid-19
05:20
GMT

Total cases 2,332,456
China 82,735 +16
Total deaths 160,784
China 4632

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 738,913 +121 (39015)
Spain 194,416 (20,639)
Italy 175,925 (23,227)
France 151,793 (19,323)
Germany 143,724 (4538)
UK 114,217 (15,464)*
Brazil 36,925 +203 (2372)
Mexico 7497 +622 (650)
Indonesia 6248 (535)
Malaysia 5305 (88)
South Africa 3034 (52)
Cameroon 1017 (42)
* 888 deaths yesterday

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 4158
Italy 2910
France 2325
USA 2232
Ger 1715
UK 1682
Global 299
Brazil 174
Mexico 58

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 441
Italy 384
France 296
UK 228
USA 118
Global 21
Brazil 11

Summary:-
Total cases 2,332,456
New cases 1663
Total deaths 160,784
New deaths 141
Recovered 600,606 (26%)

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 2,250,790
China 82,719 +27
Total deaths 154,226
China 4362

Countries 210
(Selected)

USA 710,021+286 (37158)
Spain 190,839 (20,002)
Italy 172,434 (22,745)
France 147,969 (18,681)
Germany 141,397 (4352)
UK 108,692 (14,576)*
Brazil 34,221+539 (2171)
Indonesia 5923 (520)
Malaysia 5251 (86)
Cameroon 1017 (22)
*847 deaths yesterday.

Total tests per 1m pop
Ger 20,629
Italy 20,577
Spain 19,896
USA 10,800
France 7103
UK 6467

Total cases per 1m pop
Spain 4082
Italy 2852
France 2267
USA 2145
Ger 1688
UK 1601
Global 289

Total deaths per 1m pop
Spain 428
Italy 376
France 286
UK 215
USA 112
Ger 52
Global 20

Summary
Total cases 2,250,790
New cases 1927
Total deaths 154,266
New deaths 121
Recovered 571,149 (25%)

WTI is getting crushed today, down 9% to $18.19, Brent at $28. US shalers are bust and only the intensive care machines beeping in the dark are keeping them solvent. The outlook is murky, Dec 2020 oil futures at $32 wont pay the cleaners wages.

Regardless US stocks March ever upwards to whose drumbeat is a mystery but drum they did...and Mr Jones jumped 620 at open following China data, talk of an antiviral drug being tested which is showing good results for fever and respiratory symptoms but and I must stress it's not a vaccine. The 3 phase blueprint for some States to return to work cheered traders short on bullish news.

However new global infections (+2144) and new global deaths (+1377) cont to rise as of yesterdays count and noone wants to risk a covid-19 rebound or silent transmission amongst the population once isolation is eased. One would surely need to see a period of no new infections and deaths before considering an all out return to work. NY State for instance has extended its lockdown period as others prepare to return to normality.

Among stocks, Boeing the all time yoyo stock champion gained 15% and topped the leaderboard on news that Seattle will be starting nutting & bolting planes from next week. Others gaining were Exxon & Chevron both up 7% seems a knackered oil price is good for oil shares. JPMC, Amex, Dow inc on the rise, while yesterdays top stocks Apple and UHC are today's dogs off 4% & 7%.
A late 500 point rally sent the DJI up over 700 points closing out a week which historians say has been the best 2 wk stretch since mid 1938 (3190 points). From the virus low on 23/3 the Dow has gained 5650 (30%) that must be a record 3 wk stretch!

Not so WTI which tests new lows at $18.20 as US storage capacity hits 70% and thousands of wells are idled. The Dept of Energy is considering paying oil Cos to keep their reserves undrilled as this would act as 'storage' the oil could then be lifted & sold later and proceeds returned to the Govt. Brent ($28.32) is seeing retail prices c.$6 below the headline number such is the lack of demand and Saudi Arabia
sold $7bn worth of Bonds to raise cash. They are depleting their huge foreign exchange reserves est at $502bn at an alarming rate.
At close:
DJ +705 (24242) 3%
SP +75 (2875) 3%
NS +118 (8650) 1%
R2 + 51 (1229) 4%
Morning all.

As of wk 16 cpo ytd averages $658 ($542). REA attracted zero trades over the week if you exclude the 25,000 late reported sell. Shares u/c. MPE topped our leaderboard gaining 25 on the week....I think, others little changed. KLPI closed at 6336 gaining 52 and ytd is down (22%) with cpo off (20%).

The ftse lost 56 and the 250 lower by 549 points yet I could have sworn London was having a better week but no, even the All, Small caps & Aim lost ground. Today's 159 plus on the ftse faked me out.
Mind you nothing as bad as oil which fell c.$5 (17%) on the week and ytd has slumped c.56%.
Even Gold had a poor week losing $25 but ytd is up 12% better than nowt but you'd kinda expect given the turmoil in equities and Treasuries, it would have been nearer $2000.
Have a good sportingless wk end all. Christ another 3 or more weeks of this.... ffs!!

Interesting from the MPE Annual Report that every scheme small holder receives a monthly dividend of IDR 8.2m. In USD terms that's a weekly div of c.$131 and a weekly estate wage of c.$192 added together its $323 per week well above the minimum wage of $138 and monthly av wage of $333. Remember Housing & Medical is provided free plus associated activities like sports and schooling may bear a small cost.
So living on the estate bears no resemblance to costs of living in towns or cities in Indonesia.

The minimum cost of living in Indonesia is around 500,000 IDR a month ($32) and for a family of 4 c.$1900 which includes food, housing, travel, clothes entertainment etc...

The talk from the 'Greens'
of exploitation of workers while it may be true of some estates it's most certainly not from the UK operated plantations.

The recent RNS proves to me that an investment in G is fraught with too many uncertainties. While there is good'n bad in the announcement it's hardly what shareholders want to hear especially if you want a good nights sleep. The dividend could be pulled at a moment's notice as it's likely to come out of reserves. Jeez I've been looking to buy back in since 200! It's a complete non starter as far as I'm concerned even though a mega low cost producer with free cash flow etc..., the mrkt and most others are none too bothered. That this could hit historic lows of c.74 last seen in May 2015 is now on the cards due to covid-19 and imbalances in the oil mrkt. Here's the thing would I buy at 75? I really dont know.

Trading the moves seems to work for some invested here and perhaps the best way forward because as a medium term investment oil stocks doesn't look too rosey to me. Brent at sub $28 will put many oilers up against debt/equity ratio held by Banks etc..and their ability to repay loans will be in doubt.
G can clear this hurdle but looking out to 2021/2 can you reliably estimate Gs earnings and are you prepared to take the risk especially if your a potential first time investor?

At the moment the dividend is a sweetener slightly compensating you for the risks but if that was cancelled for any reason you might decide enuffs enuff!

Eventually or sometime this century REA will report 2019 numbers. Many companies are already issuing Q1 nos.
Whatever, they say compare like for like so here's MPE headline nos (rounded) for Y/E 2019 as a benchmark.

Revenue $119m
Cost of sales $102m
Gross $17m
OP profit $16m
PBT $13m
PAT $6m
NP $7m
Net debt $67m
Eps 11c
Div 18p

*Total costs of palm group
$345 ($320) pt.

*Cpo gross margin $127pt
*Cpo+Cpko g/margin $84pt
*Cpo Rotterdam price $566
*Cpo Millgate price $471
*Cpko Millgate price $245
*Extraction rate 23.7%

Total equity £298m (547).
Group equity value £600m
(£11 per share).
Shares in issue 54.5m
Current mrk cap £316m.

Bill Gates gave $20m in 'start' up money to fund a synthetic version of palm oil due to palm being a major driver of deforestation and a lead cause of climate change. He claimed that 31mha of forest had been cleared globally for oil palm cultivation in the period (1990-2014) conveniently forgetting other crops. Based on the UN Food & Agri Assoc an additional 30.5mha was cleared for Soyabean in the period (2010-2018).
Oil Palm planted ha account for less than 1% of global agricultural land compared to other oil crops (5%), other food crops (23%) and livestock 71%.

So, can this synthetic substitute match palm oil for its nutritional values and versatility? Palm oil contains vitamin A & E and is one of the richest sources of antioxidants such as carotenoids and is free from cholesterol and trans fatty acids.
The synthetic version cannot produce vitamin A & E and the sources needed to produce it may not be sustainable from a natural & economic standpoint as it requires chemicals, microbes, energy and fermentation.

Most likely a one miss-hit wonder. Gates throws money at lots of these supposed 'breakthrough' products but outside of Msoft has had little success. It may have very limited applications but I very much doubt Gates will see a return on this one.