Member Info for JohnLewis79

Covid-19
04:00
GMT

Total cases 3,646,201
China 82,881 +1
Total deaths 252,407
China 4633

Countries 212
(Selected)
USA 1,212,900 (69,921)
Spain 248,301 (25428)
Italy 211,938 (29,079)
UK 190,584 (28734)*
France 169,462 (25,201)
Germany 166,152 (6993)
Indonesia 11,587 (804)
Malaysia 6353 (105)

* 288 deaths yesterday
* 2807 cases per 1m pop
* 423 deaths per 1m pop
* 1,291,591 total tests
* 19,026 tests per 1m pop

Summary:-
Total cases 3,646,201
New cases 2930
Total deaths 252,407
New deaths 166
Recovered 1,200,170 (33%)

The Dow followed Far Eastern and London advices downwards at the bell led by Boeing, Raytheon & GE. The jet engine maker said it was axing 13,000 from its workforce on lack of orders from carriers another part of the Airline sector that has been decimated since the lockdown. WB quitting the sector didnt help airlines knocking Delta 9%, United7%, American 10% and South West 7%. A lot of innovative thinking will have to take place to entice passengers back to the air space. Like Airlines the holiday cruise business has been annhilated by the virus. Carnival shares down 73% said it will reopen its NorthAmerican holiday routes in August with 8 ships operating cruises. It's going to take a huge leap of faith to book a cruise cooped up with hundreds of others on a floating petri dish. Images of the Diamond Princess all toovisible.Adding to the downbeat sentiment its rumoured that Hertz Car Rental will file for Chapter 11 if they cannot renegotiate debt & extend payments due with creditors by Monday. Not all stocks were going south the techs had a strong session. Going up were the FAANGs led by Msoft, Apple & Nflix and pharmas by United Health. Gilead is ready with its antiviral drug to be distributed having been granted 'emergency use' by the FDA shares u/c at $80. Oils were better crude up 7% ($21.73) & Exxon (+4%) topped the leaders on hopes the demand slump has bottomed. Oil co revs are forecast to be down $1trillion this year and Shell boss says demand will never recover to previous levels.Around 77% of the S&P 500 have reported Q1 nos and 20% have missed consensus estimates. It's been a 'look through' earnings season to date with investors forgiving poor Co returns. A number of analysts have said stocks are in a 'bear market' bounce period and have much further to fall. Conserve cash and downsize is advised, WB sitting on $137bn cash ---- should tell you something.As London closed the 30 was at session low and going nowhere. True to form the 'afternoon' crowd arrived pushing up prices & a rally of sorts was soon underway the Dow near 250 down at 1:00pm was heading into the black. At close the Dow had recouped losses.DJ +26 (23750)SP +12 (2843)NS +106 (8711)R2 +3 (1264)Nos: Oil $28.44. Vix 36.Gold $1705. Palm $593.$1.246. €1.145. IDR 15065.PI 6247. FP 6318. MSCI(W) 475.FF +70. DF +110.Morning all.

Yea and buys 2:1 over sells and the price drops. Just a snapshot in time rugs. I have become immune to daily sp moves which to a long'term holder means diddly. Traders will disagree but then that's always an added risk. Probably a little nervousness over up'coming results saw some more selling but the price is meaningless valuing the co and assets at £22.1m. What does that mean? I have no idea how to assess which part of REA amounts to £22m, the land titles alone are worth more than that. I'm assuming the mrkt has prior knowledge and there is something nasty lurking in the wood'- pile. At 50p that's back to 2002 prices when cpo was c.$310. At current value one has to ask is REA a going concern?

Never fathom out sp movements
doubt many sitting on profits at 49-50 bid. Expect vols to slow considerably for rest of day.

Vols picking up (48,306) a little lower than Friday but no headway for the shares a couple of 10,000 sells knocking the price back.
Atm its trading purely on price and momentum EV is for the birds until the shares start to represent the fundamentals, we may just as well be selling jelly beans.

Agreed MO..., tighter spread better for turnover. Much reduced vols this morning ahead of results .....expected this week?

Evil Knievel picked up some REA at 55 surmising that the fund sell of c.3m was ahead of catastrophic losses (not my words) and likely be an insider who would face the 3° treatment at a Stewards Enquiry.
Not sure about his reasoning losses yes but catastrophic? We will know this week.

The three C's impact on Zams financial performance, Copper, costs and currencies none going the right way will see PBT in the loss column. Oh well cost of doing business I guess?

A record amount of oil is being stored in super tankers at sea as around 80% of the worlds storage capacity is full. It is estimated that 160m barrels are floating about the world with no place to go. As a result the cost of storing the oil has shot up dramatically. A month ago $20,000 a day covered the cost. Not anymore, now more than $200,000 a day.
Cushing the oil storage hub in Oklahoma can hold 90m barrels (13% of US capacity) with another 6m barrels in 24 pipelines.

Factor those costs into the low oil price crushed by supply / demand imbalances and you see the desperate state oil producing countries are in. Heres the break even prices required by various countries to balance their budgets.
S.Arabia $85
UAE $65
Iraq $64
Kuwait $49
Russia $40
Saudi can cope but have been raiding their foreign reserves to plug the gap. Others such as Venezuela which is bust and Nigeria and others are on a knife edge. The collapse in crude has impacted palm prices especially for biofuel and unless crude gets back to $30+ spot futures are only $25 for Sept delivery palm is going to struggle as an alternative to gasoil however much China ramps up palm oil imports.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 3,566,330
China 82,880 +3
Total deaths 248,286
China 4633

Countries
(Selected)
USA 1,188,122 (65,598)
Spain 247,122 (25,264)
Italy 210,717 (28,884)
UK 186,599 (28,446)*
France 168,693 (24,895)
Germany 165,664 (6866)
Indonesia 11,192 (845)
Malaysia 6298 (105)

* 315 deaths yesterday
* 2749 cases per 1m pop
* 419 deaths per 1m pop
* 1,206,405 total tests
* 17,771 per 1m pop

Summary:
Total cases 3,566,330
New cases 2641
Total deaths 248,286
New deaths 140
Recovered 1,154,072 (32%)

Only HK and SK open for business today on a day dominated by the China/ US spat over the origins of the virus. The US contend it started not in a back street wild animal mrkt but a Laboratory in central Wuhan. No evidence provided by Pompeo and Trumpy was in on the act blaming China for covering up the severity of the virus and not acting soon enough an accusation levelled at himself by US citizens.
The blame game rears again as Trump vies for another Presidential term hoping the US electorate will give him the benefit of doubt on his handling of the pandemic. Its likely to hinge on this one fact and not the 30m jobless or the Stock Market crash despite a 30% April revival. No President could get reelected under those circumstances.

Japan and China mrkts are closed today so regional business is much reduced. HK returned from a 2 day break and has slumped near 1000 points led by Petro China down 10% a one time Buffet stock, as fears the current spat could lead to more tariffs being imposed by the US to punish China for the global outbreak. Traders are dumping the Yuan at a 6 wk low of 7.15 to USD and crude is off 4% this morning ($19.06) as the USD rallies v Asian currencies.

SK has followed HK and is off c.2% while mrkts in Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan & Indonesia follow the downtrend. US futures fell on Sunday pointing to a 150 fall at open. Not the best of starts for investors in May to date.

Nos: Oil $ 26.46. Vix 37.
Gold $1709. Palm $603.
$1.246. €1.138. PI 6232.
MSCI(W) 479. IDR 15,110
FF -25. DF -140.
Morning all.

Poor old WB once the worlds richest man on the lowest CEOs annual wage has slipped down the 'rich list' rankings to 4th.
Jeff Bezos of Amazon now sits atop the pile of uberearners worth c.$160bn -- the amount varies by $50bn depending which source you use.... and he's not bothered whether his Co makes money which until recently Amazon never did.
All monies after paying the cleaners went back into R&D as much as $30bn at times and the never ending goal to drive down prices and speed up deliveries of its 600m products to c.300m customers.
The company is full of contradictions, it didnt expand into huge out of town campuses a la Msoft and Starbucks but spent $bns in developing and renovating run down city centre properties. He even found time to rescue the Washington Post saving hundreds of jobs. Not many people know that.

He is accused of demanding tax breaks to set up shop in cities, dodges tax bills and likely true has finished off the High St as we knew it. He's accused of destroying jobs but in fact has created over 500,000 and counting. Personally I use it a lot to order just about all my leisure stuff, books, CDs, DVDs etc with no nonsense credit or lost item replaced immediately no questions asked. The company is moving into new fields, healthcare, banking and insurance, fields which WB dominates through his equity stakes in banks and fully owned Geico Insurance. Little wonder his stock trades at stratospheric levels. At the right place and right time he's here to serve all your needs in fact even before you know you want or need it.

Can you believe Amazons share price was less than $5 in 1997 and 10 years later was under $150. Not till 2015 did the price take off surging to $2286. I swerved the stock thinking no way in hell can he survive by ignoring the bottom line but survive he did. Im in exalted company as WB did likewise. He'd have never made it in Blighty that's for sure we'd have called his bluff and run him out of town.

There are 60 major stock exchanges in the World with a value of $69 trillion as of 2016 so a touch behind the times though after recent events the nos might not be a million miles out.
Sixteen Exchanges are in the $1trillion club and account for c.87% of global values. Here's the list:-

Asia (17) Exchanges
Value $23bn
33% of global

Africa (5)
Val $1.2bn
1.5%

Aus & NZ (2)
Val 1.2bn
1.75%

EU (17)
Val $13.7bn
19%

N.America (5)
Val $28.1bn
41%

S.America (5)
Val $0.9bn
1.4%

The NYSE itself represents c.$18.5 trillion, 27% of the total global mrkt and is bigger than all the 50 smaller bourses added together such is its financial dominance. Only the Far Eastern bourses together (17) out rank the NYSE in value.

No action tomorrow as its May Day holiday just another day off these days. NY & Asia will be trading and Mr Jones called off a touch down 34 atm.

Ytd nos:-
DJ -17%
SP -12%
NS -4%
R2 -24%

MSCI(W) -15%

Ftse -24%
All -24%
250 -26%
Aim -17%

Dax -18%
CAC -24%

Russia -27%

S.Arabia -22%

In the East:
TK -17%
HK -13%
SH -6%
SK -11%
Indonesia -25%
Malaysia -11%
Singapore -19%
Taiwan -8%

ASX 200 -18%
NZX -6%

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 3,484,483
China 82,877 +2
Total deaths 244,780
China 4633

Countries 212
(Selected)
USA 1,160,774 (67,444)
Spain 245,567 (25,100)
Italy 209,328 (28,710)
UK 182,260 (28,131)*
France 168,936 (24,760)
Germany 164,967 (6812)**
Indonesia 10,843 (831)
Malaysia 6176 (103)

* 621 deaths yesterday
* 2685 cases per 1m pop
* 414 deaths per 1m pop
* 1,129,907 total tests
* 16,644 per 1m pop.
* 15.43% fatality rate.

** Ger 30,400 tests per 1m pop.
** 4% fatality rate.

Summary:
Total cases 3,484,483
New cases 3132
Total deaths 244,780
New deaths 117
Recovered 1,121,576 (32%)

I'm sure you have heard the old joke "how do you become a millionaire?" Answer: Start as a billionaire and buy an Airline.

I cant remember when WB
decided to buy US airlines because for many years he wouldn't touch them saying " it's stupid to invest in things with wings" and "even when it's doing well it does poorly" He even had a 1-800 number (US equivalent of Samaritans) to call if he ever bought Airline stocks. He didn't heed his own advice buying US Air and losing a ton of money when it imploded. One of his bigest mistakes he readily concedes. BH did own Netjets the fractional ownership of planes mainly so he could avoid the drudgery of having to fly on regular Airways.

For some reason he changed his mind in 2016 and went on an airline buying spree, picking up large stakes in Delta Airlines (10%) & Southwest (8%) costing near $4.9bn. United, American and more Delta were bought since. He said yesterday he had sold his holdings in Americas 4 largest Airlines as he saw no upside in the sector.
That news coincided with
the annual pilgrimage to Omaha for the BH Agm which had been cancelled. Upwards of 25,000 die hard Buffetonians from all over the world attend this Woodstock for Capitalists on a regular basis to hear WB and sidekick Munger perform a questions & answer marathon lasting many hours.
The jamboree lasts a couple of days for investors to spend money at Nebraska Furniture Mart, Borsheims the jewellers and other BH businesses. BH stock has fallen nearly 20% ytd most of the fall since late Feb. WB reported at the 'virtual' BH Agm the company had posted a record Q1 loss of $50bn and owned up to making a mistake in buying airline stocks.

For a man who once had a license plate THRIFTY that was hard, as he once said " I was wired at birth to not only make money but to hang onto it"
Morning all.

Cpo price ytd averages $655 ($540) my calcs, so do your own checks. Even if I'm wrong the nos are close enough to be of interest.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 3,401,318
China 82,875 +1
Total deaths 239,614
China 4633

Countries 212
(Selected)
USA 1,131,452 (65,776)
Spain 242,988 (24,824)
Italy 207,428 (28,236)
UK 177,454 (27,510)*
France 167,346 (24,594)
Germany 164,077 (6736)
Indonesia 10,551 (800)
Malaysia 6071 (103)

* 739 deaths yesterday
* 2614 cases per 1m pop
* 405 deaths per 1m pop
* 1,023,824 total tests
* 15,082 tests per 1m pop

* Fatality rates
UK 15.5%
France 14.6%
Italy 13.6%
Spain 10%
Global 7%
US 6%
Germany 4%

Summary:
Total cases 3,401,318
New cases 2845
Total deaths 239,614
New deaths 166
Recovered 1,081,705 (32%)

US mrkts started May on the wrong foot slumping 622 wiping out wks gains (May 2019 fell 7%).
Trump, threatening China with punitive tariffs over their handling of the virus spooked equities coming off the best April since the '29 crash and stocks were overdue for some profit taking as investors reassessed tech earnings. Apple & Amazon trimmed $5 ($289) and $188 ($2286) respectively.
Jobless claims hit 30m, I in 5 US workers joined the dole queue with no guarantee of their jobs surviving the economic holocaust. Main and Wall at the opposite ends of the euphoric index.

The 500s forward P/E is c.20x well above historic averages and makes little financial sense in the short term. If the global economy is still in negative growth in 2021 and Trump a bull of the US economy is out of office, stocks will be much lower, perhaps testing 15,000 on the Dow. Several respected economists have doused investors enthusiasm with some down to earth reality talk. Crude rose as output cuts have started to bite and shut-in wells are piling up, WTI at $19 and Brent $26. Gold fell $11 & the 10yr
T/Bill yields 0.615%.
At close:
DJ -622 (23724) 3%
SP -82 (2831) 3%
NS -285 (8605) 3%
R2 -50 (1261) 4%
Morning all.

Not a good wk for REA holders having to contend with a Fund thought to be Capital Group selling out, the weakness in cpo prices and slack global demand for palm oil. Still volumes were huge over 43.3m shares changed hands on Thurs and Friday c.10% of the total issue. The shares had only one way to go falling from 88 to a low 44 before a slight recovery.
So to the nos:
On wk.
Sp -39 (42%)
Cpo -$26 (4%)
Loss value £17m

On ytd
Sp -113 (68%)
Cpo -$189 (24%)
Loss value £49.5m (68%)

Currently the mrkt in its wisdom values REAs landbank of 82,000 ha at c.$35 per ha. Now I know worst way, its got to be worth $5000 per ha so there's a huge disconnect somewhere in the pricing. Either plantation values are fictional and for the birds and the mrkt is right or REAs value is hopelessly mis'priced. It's one or the other. REA wouldn't be the first to suffer at the hands of an ungrateful mrkt. I dont usually give myself tips but on this occasion I will. Strong Buy up to at least $2000 per ha.
Evening all.