Member Info for JohnLewis79

It may have escaped pis notice of REAs new 15%. Indonesianisation has stipulated loosely that more local representation should be on UK plantations boards & share registers. To this effect DMS a natural resource company with plantation interests and listed on the Indonesian Stock exch has been invited aboard.
It has been agreed that DMS may increase its stake to 49% by 2021 on the basis that such increase will be subject to price & other terms prevailing at the time by a vote of the company share holders.

As at 31/12/2019
Emba Holdings 13,022,420
M&G 8,757,630
Nokia Bell 4,068,00
Aberforth 2,946,902
Artemis 2,445,467

Latest (2020)
DNS 6,592,579

Total 37,832,579
Total 86%
Issue 43,950,529.
Free float c.6.117m

Expected falls on back of Walls slump overnight saw Asian mrkts lower across the region. Japan which has not had a lockdown reported 678 deaths and just 16,049 cases.
Nevertheless public discontent is rising on health concerns and a second wave of the coronavirus. Japanese industry has been impacted two of the bell weather stocks Sony & Toyota have announced big falls in Profits.
Japan's PM is to make an announcement later today.

At 1:40pm JST
TK -220
HK -267
SH -15
SK -22

Covid-19
05:30
GMT

Total cases 4,429,744
China 82,929 +3
Total deaths 298,174
China 4633

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 1,430,348 (85,197)
Spain 271,095 (27,104)
Russia 242,271 (2212)
UK 229,705 (33,186)*
Italy 222,104 (31,106)
Brazil 190,137 (13,240)
France 178,060 (27,074)
Germany 174,098 (7861)
Mexico 40,186 (4220)
Indonesia 15,438 (1028)
Malaysia 6779 (111)

* 414 deaths yesterday
* 3384 cases per 1m pop
* 489 deaths per 1m pop
* 2.094m total tests
* 30,849 tests per 1m pop
* 14.4% fatality rate

Summary
Total cases 4,429,774
New cases 4088*
Total deaths 298,174
New deaths 409**
Recovered 1,659,791 (37%)
* Mexico 1862
* Brazil 980
* Pakistan 490

** Mexico 294
** Brazil 82
** Bolivia 14

......are doing the rounds as the June contract for delivery expires on Tuesday. The CFTC has warned brokers to be vigilant and to keep an orderly mrkt. Last month options expiry shambles cost Interactive Brokers $104m having to compensate clients for losses due to incorrect prices being displayed on their website. Apparently their algos couldn't or wouldn't factor in negative oil prices and traders were effectively dealing blind. No rescue from the afternoon crowd traders hit the subways leaving the mrkts dejected, dispirited & down.
At close:
DJ -517 (23,248)
SP -50 (2820)
NS -140 (8863)
R2 -42 (1233)
WTI $25.45
10y/tb 0.64%
Vol 473m

Nos: Oil $29.25. Vix 35.
Gold $1721. Palm $605.
$1.221.€1.130. IDR 14916.
PI 6154. FP 6268. FF -44. DF +2. MSCI(W) 477.
Morning all.

Mrkt news will be mostly on the Airlines as they have been front and centre of the seismic changes during the pandemic.
A major US airline bankruptcy is likely in the next few months so said Boeing CEO Calhoun. He should know as Boeing ($121) has taken a 61% mrkt drubbing this year thanks to Max, crashes & virus, now forced to passing round the 'poor bowl' to keep afloat or is that to keep aflight? Quantas will not be taking any new Boeing or Airbus planes for as long as the pandemic exists and Garuda Air, Indonesias flagship carrier faces a $1.4bn Govt bailout. While not in the top 20 bigest US industries Aerospace in the US generated revenues of c.$408bn in 2017 followed by France ($69bn) & China ($61bn).

New plane builds accounted for $270bn so a huge industry with a massive supply chain and operating revs of $248bn last year mostly from American, United & Delta. There are 213,000 planes and 621,000 pilots ferrying c.681m passenger flights around the US and overseas. The popular US Global Jets Exchange traded fund is down 60% this year. The fund contains 34 of the Airline components along with the DJI Transport Index they cover the entire industry. Among the most actives wk to date on the GJF are American (-5%), Delta (-4.5%) & United (-5%). Southwest (-3%) Jet Blue (-6%) Alaska Air (-7%) are part of the DJIT index.
Optimists who think a quick recovery will happen are few as most think it will be 3 years before 2019 nos are reached, others 4 years or more and then only at c.70% of 2019 levels.
Whether the US can accommodate so many airlines on much reduced passenger traffic is doubtful and supports Calhouns prediction of a Airline heading to the Cemetary in the Nevada desert skys.

The rest of the mrkt were not much bothered about airline woes calling an opening rise of 50 on the 30 as Londons ftse lost c.100 on the 100 before dealers had their scrambled eggs, salmon and bubbly breakfast.
US investors will have noted the large spike in global infections of 24,195. Regardless, mrkts had to deal with negative if hardly surprising comments from Fed Chair Powell who said the depth and length of the downturn could leave lasting damage. Liquidity problems could turn into solvency problems and he explicitly ruled out negative rates saying the Fed had the right tool kit to deal with the economy. Tell that to the 40% of those earning under $40,000 who have lost their jobs. Unfortunately whatever the stock mrkts does, debts, defaults & bankruptcies in whole swathes of businesses will cont into 2021.

The Dow took fright slumping 550 to 23210 low at mid'day. Raytheon, Dow inc, Amex & Exxon all lower and techs off 231 led by Apple, Intel, Msoft, Cisco and Big Blue all c.3%-5% lower. Crude slipped a touch ($25.42) on reports from EIA of a 700,000 barrel inventory decline to wk/end May 8 and talk of prices going negative again...cont

Well at least he's averaging down his cost and sp. As we know av downing is very risky as all your doing is adding to a losing position in the hope the price will recover and give you a better overall profit when you cash out. Great if it works......not so good if the sp stubbornly refuses to do as you wish. It happened to me in Genel the sp never recovered leaving me well out of pocket.
The Co fundamentals were outstanding everything else was ****.
Recent Director purchases one assumes were based on a improving outlook, be silly if they weren't so I am encouraged to stay here and wait and see.
Evening all.

Looks like Emba Holdings have upped their stake in REA from 11,082,420 to 13,022,420 (29.72%) an increase of 1.940m shares. Wouldn't swear to the nos as these have been extracted from internet financial sites.

At 49 REA is testing historic lows valuing the Company at £21.5m.
For a co with revenues of £102m
it must be one of few whose revs
exceed mrkt worth as normally its t'other way round. So you may have stumbled on a good
share if that's a buy signal for you. It's not for me but I sure would want to investigate further.
Undervalued, overvalued, mis'priced, misunderstood you choose.

Ytd nos for the Indonesian archipelago Exchanges as below:

Indonesia JSX (-28%)
Malaysia KLCI (-12%)
Singapore ST index (-20%)

I dont think Director purchases of their company shares have quite the effect of yesteryear, albeit its preferable to them selling.

REA have in fact come off a touch since Chairman Blackett & MSt CG bought shares. Vols have risen to unseen levels of c.297,000 traded on Mon & Tue. Seems a goodly sum of Fund sells landed up with the Jobber boys who are intent on keeping a square book with price movements restricted.

Rugs, I am looking forward to my first glug on you! Double or quits today? Latest JL Bookie odds. Evens (0/0) the shares finish flat to down, 11/10 (52-3), 5/4 (54-6) 3/1 (57-8) & 4s 59-60. Roll up, roll up place your bets.....closing prices only.

Covid-19
05:30
GMT

Total cases 4,342,540
China 82,926 +7
Total deaths 292,893
China 4663

Countries 212
(Selected)
USA 1,408,636 (83,425)
Spain 269,520 (26,920)
Russia 232,243 (2116)
UK 226,463 (32,692)*
Italy 221,226 (30,911)
France 178,225 (26,991)
Brazil 178,214 (12,461)
Germany 173,171(7738)
Indonesia 14,749 (1002)
Malaysia 6742 (109)

* 627 deaths yesterday
* 3336 cases per 1m pop
* 482 deaths per 1m pop
* 2.007m total tests
* 29,556 tests per 1m pop

Summary:
Total cases 4,342,540
New cases 4938*
Total deaths 292,893
New deaths 442**
Recovered 1,602,476 (37%)
* Mexico 1997
* Pakistan 1662
* Brazil 612

** Mexico 353
** Brazil 57
** Pakistan 13

Asia initially followed US mrkts lower on virus and premature reopening worries but local factors have steadied prices and at mid'day JST.
TK-118
HK -18
SH -5
SK -1
A mixed picture among the Pan Pcifics.
ASX200 -21
Indonesia -42
Malaysia +18
Singapore -9
Taiwan +17

US mrkts rose early today on economic recovery hopes at the same time as a slew of business forecasts plumbed new depths of gloom. The Consumer price index sank month on month but matched forecasts. Clothes, cars, insurance, airline fares and bookings all showing steep declines.
A NFIB index of small business optimism dipped further in April as real sales plunged 30 points to a net negative 42% the lowest on record. Given it cant get much worse equities looked on the bright side and early moves on the Dow saw a 135 gain led up by Exxon, IBM & Cisco the tech heavy Nsdq putting on a quick 60 points. Apple ($319) which is all about '5G' is nearing historic highs boosted by news that Swiss Nat Bank has bought its stock and Apple stores are open and selling in China.

On a day of little 'big' corporate news investors looked lower down the leagues for inspiration and shares in Grubhub a food delivery start up valued at c.$4.5bn caught the eye springing to life on rumours of Uber making an offer, shares up 33% to $62. Cant go wrong with a name like that! Musk never out of the news was backed by Trump to reopen his Fremont plant against the State Govt ruling on manufacturing plants from working on social distancing concerns. Musk has threatened to pack his bags and move out of State, shares up $26 to $837.
Crude was showing strength up $1.44 to $25.60 pre BP boss saying the virus has most likely brought about peak oil demand and 100mb/d are history. BP & Shell have both pledged to become net-zero energy companies by 2050 as they rush to invest away from fossil.
Saudi Aramco the worlds bigest oil co reported a 25% earnings slump to $16.7bn ($22bn) in Q1 shares flat at $31. Pre Corona SA had been pumping 13mb/d now down to 7.5mb/d. Good I have no sympathy for SA after the Kashoggi assassination cover up.

As London closed at 5955, the Dow in a choppy few hours to mid'day was dragged down by Goldman and JPMC, off 1% and 3%. In a sector hammered by the virus, Banks are down 40% ytd and are expected to put aside $115bn in loan loss provisions by
Y/E. Add in shrinking dividends and buybacks & investors are going to be much poorer despite the carpet bombing of cash by the Fed, $3 trillion & counting.

From 1.00pm the the Dow started falling and in the last hour slumped c.400 as investors became jittery about the speed of reopening businesses after comments by infectious disease chief Dr Cauci who said the "country faces needless suffering and deaths" Reports that some Senators were urging sanctions against China over the mistreatment of the Uighur minorities & Trump and Biden kneck and kneck in the polls added to the downbeat outlook. The Dow ended at near session lows & the Nsdq snapped a 6 day win streak.
DJ -457 (23764)
SP -60 (2870)
NS -190 (9003)
R2 -46 (1276)

Nos: Oil $29.56. Vix 33.
Gold $1704. Palm $596.
$ 1.227.€1.131. IDR 14872
PI 6258. FP 6394. MSCI(W) 484. 10y/tb 0.659%. FF -82. DF -96
Morning all.

The UK economy is losing c.£2.5bn a day. Boris is right those capable of work should go back now else the cure is going to be worse than the disease. Its est 24% of the workforce are out of work.
The Govt have already borrowed £300bn (around 2.5x what the NHS gets annually) to prop up businesses and supplement earnings from people furloughed. That cant last. Both virus rates were off their peak nos yesterday so good progress is being maintained. Talk of 100,000 UK fatalities look alarmist save a second coming of this or another virus type.

Come tomorrow us Seniors will be officially allowed out. Happy
days. I will be even happier if my local opens in July having undergone a 'spruce up' and a new barbecue area ready for grills and spills....

Morning Ultra investor.Oh dear you know I dont do tips or 'recommends' you will have to weigh up the pluses and minuses of an investment here yourself.No doubt the shares have fallen much further than i expected due to the virus which has impacted demand for palm oil and for biofuel and a fund cashing out which triggered huge volumes in the stock and the c.33p days fall was well overdone. Estate valuations have obviously suffered from a mean of c.$10,700 to maybe $8000-$9000 planted ha and profits cont to be illusory. A valuation of just c.£25m prices in Armageddon and has no bearing on the fundamentals. REA said they can continue to run above breakeven for the foreseeable. Debt is a burden but as long as REA can make the payments and have the time then all should be well. Agri operations are above par on yield p/ha and OER at 23% is ok. With c.50,000 ha in the landbank the scope to be fully planted has slipped from 2025 but if achieved its estimated REA could be earning $100m in fcf.Holder funds of c.450 and a sp of 51 does not make much sense. Fortunately mrkts often mis-price companies in times of turmoil and I believe they have here. I have added.Where the price goes from here I have no idea but my various purchases have avc me at 96 so getting back there would suit but it's going to be a slog.

No deal!

At close of course!

A pint we dont see 60, I'll be generous and give you 59-60.

Covid-19
05:30
GMT

Total cases 4,256,022
China 82,919 +1
Total deaths 287,332
China 4633

Countries 212
(Selected)
USA 1,385,834 (81,795)
Spain 268,143 (26,744)
UK 223,060 (32,065)*
Russia 221,344 (2009)
Italy 219,814 (30,739)
France 177,423 (26,643)
Germany 172,576 (7661)
Brazil 169,594 (11,653)
Indonesia 14,265 (991)
Malaysia 6726 (109)

* 210 deaths yesterday
* 3286 cases per 1m pop
* 472 deaths per 1m pop
* 1.922m total tests
* 28,309 tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 4,256,022
New cases 3697*
Total deaths 287,332
New deaths 195**
Recovered 1,527,517 (36%)

* 1305 Mexico
* 1140 Pakistan
* 451 Brazil

** 108 Mexico
** 39 Pakistan