Member Info for JohnLewis79

M.St Clare George picks up 50,000 at 51.40 to add to the 51,000 he bght at 51.00 a few days ago. Seems the Directors are more confident about REAs prospects than the markets a not uncommon situation.
Could be the floor for REAs sp, as what bad news there was in the AR is done and dusted now.

Added a few more on back of a better cpo price now nearly $50 off covid-19 low $572. Not sure if I'm buying $ for cents but sure feels like it. Risk, reward in my favour sub 150 with cpo averaging c.$649 ytd REA has not a lot to beat (H1 2019) given the low average selling price of $430 and a negative $16m f/ex swing for a loss before tax of $29.5m.

The mrkt won't agree but I'm used to that nowdays.
I'd be really worried if they ever started to concur that would be a red flag sell, sell, sell sign if ever I saw one!

A perennial bull of US mrkts Buffet has turned uber-bearish. Not content with dumping airlines, gold and recently 84% of his core holding in Goldman Sachs, he's outed JPM Chase
Bancorp, Bank of New York, Phillips 66 and a 0.7% stake in Amazon.
Boosting his cash pile of $137.3bn is the Sage of Omaha betting against America fearing a stock mrkt crash?

An Armada of over 100 oil tankers are on the high seas heading for China ports. Its thought as much as 230m b/oil will be offloaded in the next few months.
Much will be heading for storage bght at historic low prices during the oil price panic of negative prices.

Covid-19
05:30
GMT

Total cases 4,804,846
China 82,954.+7
Total deaths 316,711
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 1,527,664 (90,978)
Russia 281,752 (2631)
Spain 277,719 (27650)
UK 243,695 (34,636)*
Brazil 241,080 (16,122)
Italy 225,435 (31,908)
France 179,569 (28,108)
Germany 176,651 (8049)
Indonesia 17,514 (1148)
Malaysia 6894 (113)

* 170 deaths yesterday
* 3592 cases per 1m pop
* 511 deaths per 1m pop
* 2,581m total tests
* 38,040 tests per 1m pop
* 14% fatality rate

Summary
Total cases 4,804,906
New cases 5580*
Total deaths 316,712
New deaths 191**
Recovered 1,858,806 (39%)

* 2075 Mexico
* 1974 Pakistan

** 132 Mexico
** 30 Pakistan

Asian markets took heart from comments on '60 Minutes' by Fed Chair Powell on Sunday night.
Also helping were better crude prices rising to a two month high on back of a 19% jump last week and 11/13 of the regions mrkts were ahead in early dealings, only JSX & Taiex in the red.
News that Japan had entered recession, Q1 had contracted c.4% better than expected and is forecast to slump 20% in Q2. This did not bother the Nikkei, as the nos are part & parcel of the 'look through' forgiveness attitude adopted by investors for the corona-v numbers.

Powell said the Central Bank has plenty of ammunition to fight the recession predicting a 30% fall in GDP in Q2 and unemployment hitting 25% though he expected a relatively quick rebound (V or U he did not say), "you wouldn't want to bet against the American economy" something WB has been saying for years and proved right on every occasion. Stock futures liked what they heard climbing 300 late Sunday night.
At 1.00pm JST.
TK +106
HK +97
SH +17
SK +14

Nos: Oil $33.41. Vix 32.
Gold $1769. Palm $613.
$ 1.210. € 1.118. PI 6292.
IDR 14895. MSCI(W) 478.
FF +90. DF +160.
Morning all.

Life is rarely predictable chance plays a goodly part in your lifelong decisions, relationships, careers and picking stocks as well. So has the Govt corralled us into fearing for our lives when statistically most of us dying from corona-v is very slim, a total of 34,446 deaths gives you a 1: c.2000 chance of survival. I would take those odds.

In hindsight it made little sense to lock up fit and able bodied people en masse on the off chance of catching and dying of the virus. The 'Science' which has guided the Govts decisions on all matters corona-v may have overstated the outcomes such as the 500,000 deaths scare tactic which must have terrified many people.
No doubt the Govt were caught with their pants down and have been fighting a rearguard action ever since. In the circumstances it was probably all they could do but surely quarantining the most vulnerable from the get go and not every Tom, Dick & Harry should have been the starting point. Unfortunately we followed the chaos of Italy where riots broke out causing civil unrest and the ever rising death toll forced his hand when there were no cooler heads to turn to.
Catching a bad case of corona-v didnt help his cause leaving the Govt to drift at the height of the pandemic. Subsequently confusion reigns over his return to work mantra.

Boris ever the optimist spouts the "we'll come out of this stronger, more dynamic and innovative than before" sounds at best wishful thinking, at worst like poppy**** to me. I hope he's right but Boris tends to fly by the seat of his pants and when the final accounting is presented to the British people for repayment heads might roll, if taxes, vat, rates, inflation etc have to go up to pay the bill estimated to reach over £300bn.
I cannot see us being anything but poorer with less choice in our daily lives.

After assessing a number of accounting estimates the Board concluded that the price used in calculating REA Plantation assets was appropriate. As at Dec,31st 2019 the plantation assets which inc, property, plant & equipment, land, intangibles and goodwill was carried on the balance sheet at $444m. At c.£367m this works out at 835pps.

REA estate assets were valued at $333m ($351m) as at Dec 31st, 2019 and at £275m are in at c.626pps. How much these nos have been affected by corona-v would be a guess on my part but given the above nos are not made on a short term basis and plantation assets are valued on what they will return over 10 or more years they might even be under reported but I'll settle for the Boards assumptions.

So you have to ask yourself why is the Co valued at £21m? Even if you deduct the debt of £171m (391pps) from group value you still have c.444pps attributable to holders. Ok, knock off 50% on a doomsday / fire sale scenario and 222pps is left in the kitty a lot more than the 48-51 shown.
A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma or wtf is going on?

As some industries fall by the wayside never to return others take their place. Covid-19 has forced the self isolation of millions of people who have had to work and socialise from home.
Not everyone is wired into social media etc, but if these trends become the 'new normal' certain companies will be in for huge payola jackpots.

One such Co is Zoom the popular video conferencing firm whose users have rocketed up from 10m in Jan to over 300m meeting participants who have been drawn to the App due to its ease of use and ability to support 100 people a time. Obvious benefits are on line teaching and hundreds of others applications.
In January Zoom stock was trading at $68 and had been going nowhere for a year....until this year when it skyrocketed up over 170% to $175 on back of the coronavirus.

Zoom ($49bn) is now worth more than the top 7 world airline companies added together ($46bn) such has been the mass destruction. In Jan they were valued at $121bn. Of course the big question is Zoom a .com over hyped over there about to crash and burn one day wonder?
With revenues of $623m investors are taking a lot on trust that Zoom has the 'first user' advantage and will grow into a global sustainable business such as the Kitty Hawk 1903 air plane.

Covid-19
04:30
GMT

Total cases 4,720,196
China 82,947 +6
Total deaths 313,220
China 4663

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 1,507,773 (90,113)
Spain 276,505 (27,563)
Russia 272,043 (2537)
UK 240,161 (34,466)*
Brazil 233,511 (15,662)
Italy 224,760 (31,763)
France 179,365 (27,625)
Germany 176,247 (8027)
Indonesia 17,025 (1089)
Malaysia 6872 (113)

* 468 deaths yesterday
* 3540 cases per 1m pop
* 508 deaths per 1m pop
* 2.490m total tests
* 36,696 tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 4,720,196
New cases 3183*
Total deaths 313,220
New deaths 318**
Recovered 1,811,674 (38%)

* 2112 Mexico
* 369 Brazil
* 249 Bolivia
* 181 Panama
* 120 Guatemala
* 105 Honduras

** 278 Mexico
** 29 Brazil

Covid-19
07:00
GMT

Total cases 4,628,821
China 82,941 +8
Total deaths 308,654
China 4633

Countries
(Selected)
USA 1,484,285 (88,507)
Spain 274,367 (27,459)
Russia 262,843 (2418)
UK 236,711 (33998)*
Italy 223,885 (31,610)
Brazil 220,291 (14,692)
France 179,506 (27,529)
Germany 175,699 (8001)
Indonesia 16,496 (1079)
Malaysia 6855 (112)

* 384 deaths yesterday
* 3489 cases per 1m pop
* 501 deaths per 1m pop
* 2.353m total tests
* 34,685 tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 4,628,821
New cases 7407*
Total deaths 308,654
New deaths 500**
Recovered 1,759,704 (38%)
* 2437 Mexico
* 2068 Brazil
* 1581 Pakistan
* 205 Bolivia

** 290 Mexico
** 145 Brazil
** 31 Pakistan

A gloomy end to the week as Retail Sales fell 16% in April worse than forecast but who's surprised? E-commerce revs grew 8% over the month thanx to on line spending increases. Stay at home investors are betting or rather praying that the Fed's largess of 'helicopter money' will insulate them from the worst of the economic ravages decimating the US landscape.

If they had been invested in the "sure thaang' Faangs top of the 'popper-must' stocks for pis these last 10 years most will have done incredibly well. How so? Take a look at the 10yr period, to end 2019.
* S&P 500 up 177%
* F/bk up 537% (since 2012 IPO)
* Amazon up 1197%
* Apple up 752%
* Netflix up 3257%
* Google up 332%
Many assert the Faangs and the tech sector are over valued and overdue a big correction as the big 5 Apple, Msoft, Amazon, Google & F/bk make up 20% of the 500 and are over represented Take these 2 ratios:

* F/bk forward pe 17x (IPO at 72x) shares down 46% ytd.
* Google forward pe 21x
shares u/c ytd.
* Apple forward pe 19x
shares up 2% ytd.
* Amazon forward pe 71x
shares up 28% ytd.
* Netflix forward pe 60x
shares up 38% ytd.

If you value them on PEG ratios a better guide as your valuing the growth rate, you will get a better idea of the business as an investment, on that score the nos are:

* F/bk (1)
* Apple (2.2)
* Nflix (1.9)
* Amaz (1.15)
* Google (1.7)
where 1 or lower indicates value, above--- fully valued to pricey, F/bk comes out the overall winner.

Having been 270 down early on, issues with Huawei and China tariffs the Dow is back above the break line led by Disney, UH, 3M, Cat & Msoft, going down Boeing, Intel, Amex, Goldman, JPMC and Coka C. The Dow finished slightly ahead but off 646 on the wk the 500 lost 66 the techs down 107 and small caps 73. Ytd Nsdq is the only sector ahead of last year (+0.50%)
At close:
DJ +60 (23685)
SP +11 (2864)
NS +71 (9014)
R2 + 19 (1257)
Morning all.

London palms were for the most part moribund over the week. Closing prices as below:

Cpo
Ytd av
$649

Wk20
Anglo 460 (u/c)
Dkl 2.20 (u/c)
Epa 0.40 (u/c)
Mpe 520 (-65)
Rea 49 (-2)

Ytd nos
Anglo -132 (21%)
Dkl -1.45 (60%)
Epa -0.35 (47%)
Mpe -191 (27%)
Rea -118 (71%)

Ytd
Cpo $611 (-24%)
Cpko $721 (-26%)
KLPL 6197 (-20%)*
FP 5989 (-27%)*

IDR/USD 14878 (-7%)
GBP/USD 1.213 (-9%)
GPB/EUR 1.121 (-5%)

* KL Plantation index.
* UK Food Products sector

Evening all have a good wk end now that restrictions have been lifted in places. No pub and no sport so pretty much a non event as far as I'm concerned.

Ellie99. Early to bed early to rise that's me these days.
Is it a buy, is it a sell, is it a hold?
Well i've been buying and since REA is unlikely to join the 90% club you could say it's a
recommendation of sorts, more a conviction buy that the mrkt will wake up and see the E/ value
I'm hoping there might be either a merger or better an outright bid for the company this year but that's no reason to buy the stock as you'll likely be disappointed.
Good luck in what you choose to do.
Incidentally 16 would put us in the 90% club, so I'm thinking the worst case scenario low would be c.25p if the global economy tanked to unprecedented levels similar to the Great Depression following the Wall St crash.

Well it's as good a buy as anything else, cos nothing seems to relate to fundamentals so Zam is def a buy if you believe it will get rerated anytime this century.
.....Best cash up and give any pennies left over to holders.
Multiply that by hundreds of companies who shouldn't be listed on any exchange given the costs and the management have long since had their money out leaving the crumbs for you and me, then if you must have a listing do so on the Mogadishu 100 they are very welcoming and have a 'beck and call' trading floor with cash settlement only during the dry season as computers are non existent. So you will have to have an agent to manage your dealings. Gluck!

REA reported av sale price achieved during 2019 was cpo $453 ($472) and cpko $533 ($792). Av cpo price in 2019 c.575.
Cost of sales were:
Buying ext ffbs $17.8m
Estate op costs $67.6m*
Dep & Amorts $27.3m
Stock movmnt $9.1m
Total Co costs. $121.8m*
* mill processing over budget and extra trucking costs due to low river levels. No debt included.

If REA could achieve an av price of $570 theres a very good chance of breaking even. For that to happen cpo would need to av near $700, currently some $100 off that. Reducing costs is obviously priority no 1 and REA are on track to achieve significant reductions this year.

The Indonesian Palm Oil
Associated (Gakpi) reported higher export nos during the corona pandemic. Domestic usage fell by 3.2% ( 65kt) to 721kt in March. Food consumption fell 8% impacted by lockdowns etc. Incidentally Hand Sanitizer Producers need more palm oil to ramp up output.
The Oleochemical Industry uses c.68,000t of palm oil, over half being used for hand sanitizers.

Palm oil exports rose by 185,000t to 2.72mt in March. Cpo exports rose 113kt in Feb mainly to South Africa, Bangladesh & China. Exports to the US p& Pakistan were down the EU & Middle East u/c. At the moment palm oil production is running smoothly despite the pandemic. Borneo figs are lumped in with Indonesias. Brunei (141 cases / 0 deaths) are separate from Malaysia.
It's paramount that improvements in output (y/pha) and Mill efficiencies are achieved to keep the industry viable as the 'dry' season is upon us peaking in Aug. Forest fires will be a major concern and must be guarded against religiously.

Covid-19
06:00
GMT

Total cases 4,526,985
China 82,933 +4
Total deaths 303,407
China 4633

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 1,457,593 (86,912)
Spain 272,646 (27,321)
Russia 252,245 (2305)
UK 233,151 (33614)*
Italy 223,096 (31,368)
Brazil 203,165 (13,999)
France 178,870 (27,425)
Germany 174,975 (7928)
Indonesia 16,006 (1043)
Malaysia 6819 (112)

* 428 deaths yesterday
* 3437 cases per 1m pop
* 495 deaths per 1m pop
* 2.219m total tests
* 32,713 tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 4,526,985
New cases 4996*
Total deaths 303,407
New deaths 325**
Recovered 1,705,686 (38%)
* Mexico 2409
* Pakistan 1430
* Brazil 247
* Bolivia 224
* Panama 174

** Mexico 257
** Pakistan 33
** Bolivia 10

HK has bounced 150 off opening lows on back of properties and techs turning up and recouping a little of the 3 day drop of 1260.
The rest of the region is barely changed Indonesia (JSX Comp) down 19 the only mrkt losing. Japan Govt are advising workers to return for only 3 days a week to minimise commutes. The region (SK) saw only 27 new cases of the virus.
At 1:30 JST
TK +88
HK +96
SH +5
SK u/c

Markets got off to a rocky start when jobless nos hit the wires. Another near 3m signing on taking the jobless total past 22m. More than 36m have applied for benefits since the coronavirus struck 8 wks ago and for the 8th straight week c.3m have been heading to Job Centres.
Many think the nos have been under reported due to antiquated computer systems and lack of staff to do the 'leg work'. However signs are that the jobless count may have peaked as States are starting to recall workers to fill vacancies. BOA reported usage of credit & debit cards had shown meaningful improvement.
What is not showing meaningful improvement are US new cases (+8000) and deaths (+500) at 1:00pm EST.

Two well respected major investors, Appaloosa's David Tepper said "this is the most overvalued market I've seen" and Stanley Druckenmiller dented sentiment further by saying "risk-reward for equity is maybe as bad as i've known it". Traders needed no further hints and dumped stocks from the bell tanking the Dow 450 & the Nsdq 158 by 10:00am. Among the routed were Apple, Nike, Disney, Exxon, Cat, IBM &
Goldman. Early risers were few Cisco (+5% on results), UH, Merck, Amex & Bank stocks were doing well.

Airlines came under pressure as Delta announced it was retiring from service its 18 Boeing 777 fleet as it saw no prospect of long haul travel returning to past booking levels and was also parking the short haul MD-90 single aisle plane made by Boeing.
Not really surprising as Delta has been mainly an Airbus wide body customer and will use the Airbus 330s for long haul when traffic returns, as its more fuel efficient than the 777s. Delta said it needed to eliminate its $50m a day cash burn by year end and downsize the Co to suit current operational demand. Delta had also ceased flying into 10 US airports. Shares slid $0.50 to a 7 yr low of $18.95. Boeing fell $5 to $116 on the news but recovered early falls as the mrkt turned up and went plus at mid'day.

Crude gained (WTI $26.05) on output cuts beginning to take effect on the oversupply though Shalers are in dire straits drowning in bankruptcies and employee lay offs. Just 4 months ago analysts were forecasting $100 a barrel but tbf that was before Saudi Arabia's ill judged attempt to corner the oil mrkt and bury shale. MBS hoisted by his own petard methinks.
A 600 point U turn by the Dow from 10:00am has sent shorters running for cover as big board counters climbed from lunch boosted by Banks.
At close
DJ +377 (23625)
SP +32 (2852)
NS +81 (8940)
R2 +4 (1238)

Oil $31.55. Vix 33. Gold $1741.
Palm $607. $1.221. € 1.130.
PI 6179. FP 5990. IDR 14892.
MSCI(W) 477. 10yr/tb 0.625%
FF +44. DF -3.
Morning all.