Member Info for JohnLewis79

Banks likely to start using negative int rates on customers accounts. Essentially this means charging you for parking your money in their Bank.
Amazed they haven't tried this wheeze before. I've always said they are bigger crooks than the Mafia. I have previous with a major high st Bank.
A small matter of overcharging me c.£12,000 in interest! Took me 2 years to get paid back, no compensation, no redress for virtually bankrupting me, no compensation for emotional distress leaving me jumpy as a jack rabbit. I was advised to take the money and run else the Bank would drag my claim out forever.
Do I invest in Bank stocks?
Do i ucfk!!

Last price a 2150 sell at 54 on days c.177,545 trades. Top buy price 56, low 51.3. Total volume wk to date (545,600) give or take...whatever the merits of the two iis moves it has certainly stoked up interest much of it I suspect to be transient.
That's fine, a turns a turn after all it's just I need my turn to be a lot bigger...

Indonesia cuts 2020 palm oil output by c.12% reported the Estate Crop Fund Agency. Currently it's difficult to export to some countries due to lockdown issues.
Previously they estimated
Total Exports of c.39.94mt. It is hoped that domestic B30 biofuel will take up the slack if competitively priced against gasoil. The gap is narrowing thanx to crude hitting a 2 month high and supply/demand balance to support prices.

Malaysian palm oil exports jumped c.13% in the May 1-20 period. August delivery on BMDE
+25 Ringgit to 2185r ($502).

Covid-19
05:30
GMT
Total cases 5,090,061
China 82,967 +2
Total deaths 329,732
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 1,593,039 (94,941)
Russia 308,705 (2972)
Brazil 293,357 (18,894)
Spain 279,524 (27,888)
UK 248,923 (35,704)*
Italy 227,364 (32,330)
France 181,575 (28,132)
Germany 178,531 (8270)
Indonesia 19,189 (1242)
Malaysia 7009 (114)

* 363 deaths yesterday
* 3660 cases per 1m pop
* 526 deaths per 1m pop
* 2.962m total tests
* 43,661 per 1m pop
* 14.3% fatality rate

Summary
Total cases 5,090,039
New cases 6650*
Total deaths 329,732
New deaths 493**
Recovered 2,024,221 (40%)
* 2248 Mexico
* 2193 Pakistan
* 438 Bolivia
* 410 Sudan
* 316 USA

** 424 Mexico
** 32 Pakistan
** 10 Bolivia
** 10 Sudan

'Dead' is the word from Asia this morning markets idling in neutral. Japans export nos the worst in a decade were well trailed. Exports dropped c.22% and 7% on imports barely budged the Nikkei.
Meanwhile on the mainland with infections at just single figures and no new deaths China is straining to get c.30% of its workforce who have lost their jobs back to work. They will spend heavilly to do so. It's the only way, buy back jobs initially then let mrkt Forces do the rest.

At 1:00pm JST
TK -27
HK -14
SH +1
SK +8
JSX -3
KLCI +14
STI +3

Futures predicted a strong start to trading first thing this morning. The Dow duly obliged opening up 330 led by gains in Boeing, Amex, JPMC & Coca Cola,
just Merck ( healthcare) in the red. No economic news to trouble investors for a change.
With no perceptible spike in virus data and more States returning to some semblance of normality the mrkts are on a steady footing. Virus specialist Moderna ($73) is expected to make a public offering of 20m shares shortly as phase-2 gets underway.

Reporting yesterday *LOWES ($118) the home improvement store akin to our B&Q reported sales up 11% on revs of $19.7bn and the highest in 15 years as stay at home punters spent more on DIY items. *TARGET ($122), the big box retailer of groceries and household items had stayed open during the crisis and added 5m new customers. Sales grew 11% to $19.62bn largely as a result of digital purchases. Target stock hit a recent $125 high for the year and has seen increased options activity most of them 'Calls'. The quixotically named *GRUBHUB being courted by Uber is expected to recommend a $60 a share offer on a 2 for 1 basis, economies of scale being the rationale. Nsdq might be surging but unlucky *LUCK IN dived 32% on resumption of trading to just $2.40 valuing the Co at c.$700m. You'd have to be ripped out of your mind to play with this. A complete wipe out is expected, it's nothing more than flotsam. Nsdq will need to tighten listing requirements for Chinese IPOs in future.

Crude ended at a 10wk high ($33.49) on supply glut easing a 5.5m barrel drop at Cushing and has shifted from contango to backwardation (June contract higher than July contract). Worries over negative oil prices have vanished and demand is slowly adjusting to the new world order.
At close
DJ +369 (24576)
SP +49 (2972)
NS +191 (9376)
R2 +39 (1347
WTI $33.67
10y/tbh 0.0662%

Nos: Oil$ 36.07. Vix 28.
Gold $1742. Palm $623.
$1.220. €1.113. IDR 14727
PI 6704. FP 6029. MSCI(W) 498. FF-26. DF-121.
Morning all.

Regards the t/o it was a quick fix option for distressed holders. But no way would anyone pay e/value under current circumstances and the Robinows would be very unlikely to take a low ball offer. As you say cpo price is crucial as is crude to o..lilies. Cost of sales for REA ($122m) were impacted by outside factors unlikely to be reprocated this year. As to capital structure I cant see any change given the $notes, £notes and Bank borrowings. I'm aghast that the amount borrowed seems to have disappeared down one of the bunds. The Board must think they are allocating the proceeds for our benefit but so far were fattening the creditors bank balances with little to show for it, certainly not in sp terms but wtf has that got to do with anything.
We shall have to see what the H1 nos throw up hopefully before Xmas.

You make some fair points nobull
the prefs should be inc in co value but I lump them in with co debt. Anyone interested in acquiring a c.50,000 ha plantation wont worry to much about the Pref issue.
I don't know why I brought up the t/o option as it's unlikely to happen.
Yet, I have form in picking t/o companies, 4 out of last 6 went to new buyers but 1 went bust which skews my batting average somewhat. Come to think of it there's another one, name escapes me as I'm having an early slurp and my memory is dulled....

3x1 share buys went through late. Used to be code for jobbers short of stock. May not apply these days.
Last trade a 20,000 sell at 50.75 on wk to date total of 367,000 give or take....

Anglo Eastern (470) reported 2019 nos yesterday in a condensed form pre the full AR.

* Revs $219m ($251m)
* OP profit $12.2m (30.9m)
* After BA $15.1m
* FFBs 1,03mt (1.04mt)
* Y/pha 18.1mt.
* Cost $285m.
* Borrowings $8.2m
* Net cash £76.7m

Anglo has a mrkt cap of £188m around 8x REAs mrkt value. Based on the agri figs above that looks unwarranted. However they carry virtually no debt and have c.192p of cash in the Bank so does that make up for the £166m diff in value? Incredible to think Anglo could buy us out from petty cash!

Covid-19
05:30
GMT
Total cases 4,988,994
China 82,965 +5
Total deaths 324,958
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 1,570,583 (93,533)
Russia 299,241 (2837)
Spain 278,803 (27,778)
Brazil 271,885 (17,983)
UK 248,818 (35,341)*
Italy 248,699 (32,169)
France 180,809 (28,022)
Germany 177,827 (8193)
Indonesia 18,496 (1221)
Malaysia 6978n(114)

* 545 deaths yesterday
* 3667 cases per 1m pop
* 521 deaths per 1m pop
* 2.78m total tests
* 40,866 tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 4,988,994
New cases 6057*
Total deaths 324,958
New deaths 404**
Recovered 1,959m (39%)

* 2713 Mexico
* 1932 Pakistan
* 411 India

** 334 Mexico
** 46 Pakistan
** 15 Bolivia

Not much doing in Asia this morning, the PBOC kept rates flat as expected but Japans Machinery orders rebounded strongly from March and Sony Financial Holdings stock jumped 24% on news that parent Sony Corp will tender $3.7bn for the 25% of stock it does not own.

On a downbeat note the Cambridge Centre for Risk
Studies Business School in a report said the global economy would lose $82tr over the next 5 years. Mid range forecast calls for $26.8trn or 5.3% of 5 yr GDP to be lost.
At 1.00pm JST.
TK +201
HK -23
SH -13
SK +5
Taiw +29
**
Indo -23
S'pore -24
Mal +1
Aus +3

Dow futures are veering above and below the gain line at open while I try and interpret and convey the days dealings into readable prose with a few titbits of info thrown in for at least a 45 singles worth of time. This may prove painfully obvious to you dear reader as you dissect and bisect my twisted syntax that gum up overlong waffles. Reviews are written on the hoof with little pre planning and almost zero edits. What was intended to be an occasional mrkt report has now boxed me in to a long run at the Theatre of Absurd. I need a stand-in.

Time, tide and the markets wait for no man, earnings reports from Home Depot and Wallmart both top 30 companies will be the focus of 'look through' nos for investors perhaps not as interesting as Trumps medicinal chest but another scalp on Q1s belt. Mr Jones had enough of the giddy heights and opened 220 lower as *Home Depot shares fell $5 to $241 on net income 11% lower due to extra virus costs but sales were up 7% for the Q. In contrast *Wallmart ($129) topping Walls estimates reported soaring (+70%) e-commerce revenues & $124bn of Co sales but spent $900m on virus related issues shares flat at $128, fell $3 later.

Other retailers fared poorly.
*KOHLs ($17) fell 9% after poor Q1 losing $544m.
*Pier1 Imports is seeking to wind down asap due to covid-19 store closures shares off 62% to 0.16c. *Luckin Coffee a Chinese outfit (suspended since April) disclosed it had rec'd a delisting notice from Nsdq HQ citing fabricated sales by staff and the COO in the 2019 results amounting to c.Yuan 2.2bn. Luck in raised a total of $1.5bn in two tranches and was valued at c$12bn in Jan this year shares ($50) slumped to $4.39 at suspension. Talk about 'yellow peril' jeez! Once viewed as another Starbucks it had 4500 shops in China. A major facemelt for investors.

Up and down like a yoyo the 30 pulled back 180 to trade 60 off at lunch with Raytheon, Nike and Amex top of the board, Home Depot, Exxon & Boeing down among the bottom fishers. Got to level par twice in a choppy 220 range (L<>H) session. Late afternoon a report out of Boston Media STAT News Wire cast doubt on Modernas supporting data for its experimental corona-v treatment drug shares fell 10% ($72). That sent stocks into a tailspin tanking 390 in the last 45 mins.
DJ -391(24207)
SP -31 (2923)
NS -50 (9185)
R2 -26 (1308)
WTI $31.94
10y/tb 0.69%

Nos: Oil $34.83. Vix 31.
Gold $1754. Palm $616.
$1.227. € 1.121. PI 6587.
FP 6074. MSCI(W) 491.
FF-21. DF +184.
Morning all.

Its a combo of all riddler but no doubt the catalyst was the (3m?)
sell by a fund. Future earnings which is the b all and end all of stock analysis only gets a mention when the mrkt wants to remind you! What price fundamentals?

Increased volumes are doing nothing for the sp. I'm not sure that's the function anyways, Director purchases or not--- too many other factors impinge on dealers psyche as to how they evaluate prices. I'm not sure what governs the bloody machines but UP doesn't seem to be in their remittance. They say its supply and demand, more buyers----- shares go up, more sellers----shares down. Well we know that ain't necessarily so....not here anyways, not anywhere in my view!

One thing for sure is we don't value future money as much as we do current, ie..future promises mean zilch (DFCF anyone?). This might in part explain static share prices and the 'quick turn' merchants as there is no one size fits all to explain why shares go up or down so either way best act quick. Any number of causes could explain an under performing sp and a good few apply here but the gloom looks overdone.

Stats say you do better over time, check any graph of the ftse going back 50 years for confirmation. That's fine if you have 50 years in front of you and your an above average stock picker! I'm an average "picker" fairly sure I'm in the plus column (not a lot) since my first buy in the 70s even allowing for my 'blood stock' tanking had it not been for that, i might have been sunning myself on a desert island beach somewhere. Bad stock choices can have a disproportionate affect on your happiness as any investor who has suffered a 'bust' will attest.

The Indonesian Govt is determined that B30 will succeed and have increased the levy by $5 to $55 to support the program. The Govt will contribute $186m and businesses $51m.
A fall of c.20% in orders prompted the move as the lockdown crippled diesel demand in Jakarta.

This should help support B30 prices in the short term especially as the palm oil /gas spread is narrowing. Malaysia has cut its cpo export duty to 0% in June from 4.5% in May.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 4,894,098
China 82,960 +6
Total deaths 320,180
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 1,550,294 (91,981)
Russia 290,678 (2722)
Spain 278,188 (27,709)
Brazil 255,368 (16,853)
UK 246,406 (34,796)*
Italy 225,886 (32,007)
France 179,927 (28,239)
Germany 177,289 (8123)
Indonesia 18,010 (1191)
Malaysia 6952 (113)

* 160 deaths yesterday
* 3632 cases per 1m pop
* 513 deaths per 1m pop
* 2.683m total tests
* 39,542 tests per 1m pop
* 14% fatality rate

Summary
Total cases 4,894,098
New cases 5974*
Total deaths 320,180
New deaths 215**
Recovered 1,908,064 (39%)

* 2414 Mexico
* 1841 Pakistan
* 812 India

** 155 Mexico
** 36 Pakistan
** 7 India

Follow my leader all Asia
legged up early after Walls burst of euphoria on vaccine results. Electronics, Real Estate and energy stocks (BHP/Aus) were all ahead though SoftBank (Japan) took a hammering on a huge year end loss but Nippon Steel gained 7% on increasing industrial output.
At 1:00pm JST
TK +365
HK +415
SH +15
SK +36

Lo and behold stocks soared on opening as news that Moderna's phase-one clinical drugs trial had showed positive results. The company said all 45 participants in the trial had developed antibodies to the virus. The Fed has already agreed to advance phase-two trials as a matter of urgency. Modernas stock shot up 23% to $82. The vaccine mrkt is a crowded one with c.100 companies in various stages of development but just 8 in clinical FDA approved trials. It's a mrkt estimated to be worth c.$10-$30bn and a valuable prize for the first approved vaccine for humans.

With news like that and Sunday nights comments from Powell it was fasten your seat belts as traders and pis headed to Wall in very bullish mood, cheering as buy orders flooded in to Brokers offices. No flagging commercial worries or Bearish Buffet it was buy, buy and buy on a poss 1000 pointer day. Analysts are burning the midnight oil having to rethink changes to Q4 earnings nos such is the optimism for the 'comeback' in, for example 'Beach' stocks.
*Bookings
*Entertainment
*Airways
*Casinos
*Hotels
all gained on the potential vaccine cure and consumer restrictions being relaxed. Passenger traffic increased for the 4th straight week and the SP500 Airlines Index put on 14% followed by energy 7%, Financials 5% & Real Estate 4%.

Banks turned better as more businesses begin to trade again. Wells Fargo & BOA up 6%, Citi up 5% and JPMC +3%. Topping the big board was Boeing (+13%), Dow inc gaining 12%, Disney, Exxon & Raytheon all c.7% not a seller in sight and only Merck in the red. At 6:00 pm UK time the Dow had put on c.4% and 458/500 S&Ps were up but the star was the R2 gaining near 6% reducing those minus 27% ytd nos.
Demand recovery for oil has been boosted by Chinas oil consumption now back at pre Corona-v levels sent WTI up 6% to $31.11 a two month high. Music to the ears of oil bullies. Flat from mid'day the Dow hit 24,709 but lost 112 just before close.
At close
DJ +912 (24597) 4%
SP + 90 (2954) 3%
NS + 220 (9235) 2%
R2 +77 (1334) 6%
WTI $31.46
10y/tb 0.701%

Nos: Oil $34.51. Vix 29.2.
Gold $1739. Palm $612.
$1.219. €1.118. PI 6422. FP 6156.
MSCI(W) 492. FF -7. DF -66.
Morning all.