Member Info for JohnLewis79

Continued good trading in REA yesterday mostly one way it has to be said. Buy volume outpaced sells by c.6:1 (75000:1200) shares edged down 0.50p. Around 87 deals since (18/5) that's a lot in REA speak.
I found some cash in back of my desk drawer so bght a few, my 4th purchase sub 55. The shares might be gummed up and I'm adding to a losing position but at least lowering my avc as I did in my blood thing and look how that turned out.

New York Governor Cumo presided over the ritual ringing of the bell which starts the days business on the NYSE. He received wild cheers from the traders on the floor and Mr Jones joined in surging 500 before the applause died down.
Asia and Europe provided much of the impetus. The virus news is bullish, most States are now open and Amusement Parks, restaurants are operating again. Hotel bookings were ahead 34% over the holiday and Trump is bullying up the economy "next year will be the best ever!" Gotta admire the mans chutzpah! Consumer confidence edged up in May and home sales were slightly up (0.6%) after the awful March nos down 13.6%.
People are more confident of venturing out and gathering in larger groups. Memorial Day travel nos were better than expected and once people are confident enough to start spending the I might turn into a U recovery.

Roundophobes were pleased as the Dow crossed 25,000 and the 500 the 3000. At mid session on the reopened NYSE floor the Dow was 670 ahead, Raytheon & Goldman contributing c.130. JPMC, Dow inc and Boeing all up 5% or better, Msoft, Wallmart, Apple and Cisco in the red.
Corona-v stocks were mixed Moderna slumped 10% on reports that one volunteer had suffered adverse reactions to the drug but Novavax ($50) gained 8% on human trials starting in Australia. Gilead Sciences stock up $1 at $74 after securing approval for a limited test run of its drug in the UK. There are 10 FDA approved drugs in various stages of testing and 114 in pre-clinical trial mode.

Airlines saw some solid gains Southwest added 12%, Delta, 13%, United 15% & American 16% on domestic traffic picking up as restrictions ease and freight trucking has increased an early sign of economic activity.
Hertz talks with creditors were unsuccessful stock crashed 80% to just 0.57c. Three months ago Hertz traded at $20. Debt and the virus fall out ended their 100 year reign. It has been a quick death. Recent duff 'latte' stock Luckin Coffee bounced off $1.33 low to trade at $2.10 now an options chip on the spinning wheel of fortune. Heading towards close the Dow & SP are off best for the day and below the 00 nos.
At close
DJ+530 (24995)
SP +36 (2992)
NS +16 (9340)
R2 +38 (1393)
WTI $34.08
10y/tb 0.69%

Nos: Oil $35.98. Vix 28.
Gold $1703. Palm $622.
$1.232. €1.124. PI 6764.
FP 6343. IDR 14747.
MSCI(W) 502. FF+9
DF+155.
Morning all.

I have no crystal ball TTNY! Zam has never done me any favours these last 3 or more years. My timing has been off. I thought it was cheap at 15 so at current? As good or bad as any other in the mrkt for a pure spin of the wheel punt. If your buying for a turn there are better more volatile shares out there, Zam is a bit of a tortoise in that respect.

However on a 2-3 year look has potential but plenty of headwinds surround this stock.
Politics, currency swings, etc..can knock the price regardless of trading. You have to be very lucky to grab a 'bagger' Do you feel lucky?

Perceived wisdom says and I totally agree 'you shouldn't buy a stock for any other reason than the fact you think its selling for less than it's worth, initially!
Apply the above to REA and buy the stock price to where it's going to be not to where it has been. I'm not passing up what has potential today on the off chance i'll find something more to my taste tomorrow, I likely won't.

I believe returns decrease as trading increases. In my case mainly because I have more ideas than money and anyhow you only need a few great ideas to be in the win column. I've had three and if I'd quit after those I'd be way in the money but....I didn't. I over traded and my increases decreased to near zero.

So I'm looking for 'baggers' or companies that get into temporary trouble.....i stress temporary trouble not terminal or when in the ICU, more like being laid up with a dull headache or in a constipated bind. These offer one better odds of greater returns than ftse 100s. I believe that to be the case here. You don't jump ship because of a temporary leak do you?

Covid-19
05:45
GMT
Total cases 5,590,358
China 82,292 +7
Total deaths 347,907
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 1,706,226 (99,805)
Brazil 376,669 (23,522)
Russia 353,427 (3633)
Spain 282,480 (26,837)
UK 261,184 (36,914)*
Italy 230,158 (32,877)
France 182,942 (28,432)
Germany 180,789 (8428)
Indonesia 22,750 (1391)
Malaysia 7417 (115)

* 239 deaths yesterday
* 3849 cases per 1m pop
* 544 deaths per 1m pop
* 3.533m total tests
* 52,066 tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 5,590,358
New cases 6091*
Total deaths 347,907
New deaths 294**
Recovered 2.367m (42%)

* 2485 Mexico
* 1356 Pakistan
* 506 India

** 239 Mexico
** 30 Pakistan
** 11 Bolivia

All blue in Asia this morning Japans Nikkei leads the way up 500 as Premier Shinzo Abe announces that the State of Emergency is ending. Dept stores and restaurants are opening though people are being tested for headaches before entering.
News that American biotech firm Novavax was starting its first human study of its experimental drug boosted hopes for a vaccine, any vaccine news sends mrkts higher.

HK came off 2 days losses of 1360 gaining 430 with SK and Shanghai better by 20 & 30 points. NY might be closed but Dow futures are rallying, called up 130.
At 1:00 pm JST
TK +500
HK +430
SH +21
SK +31

Nos: Oil $36.01. Vix 28.
Gold $1736. Palm $619.
$1.221. €1.119. PI 6723.
IDR 14758. MSCI(W) 492.
FF+40. DF+130.
Morning all.

The 'Bashers' are out in force giving it large to WB. .They say he's lost his touch, breaks his own rules... "buy when others are fearful" etc... I dont think so. Hes just practising what I like to call some 'masterly inactivity'. Sit on your hands until you see some value, buy it then sit on your ass.

The mrkt may be running ahead of events but if WB a Grand Master of allocating capital cannot see value what's he supposed to do? His mistakes of omission are few, so those betting against Buffet may come unstuck.
I think the odds favour his stance of cash in the Bank while he waits for an elephantine purchase. Fairly sure it wont be an oily or a techy more likely a 'low tech' company that has an lasting competitive advantage. These companies he calls "franchises" not Dunkin bloody Donuts or the like but economic 'fortress-like' firms that will stand the test of time, not be disrupted by a competitor or some sexy new technology.

At the moment mrkts seem to be favouring the 'in & outers' at the expense of 'buy & holders' ------
Buffet watchers will be waiting for him to start buying. It could be a long wait.

Abivax (€20.30) not USD!

Abivax announces German regulatory approval for its ABX464 Covid-19 phase 2b/3 clinical trial. The randomised, double blind placebo control study is investigating early treatment in 1034 covid-19 elderly or high risk patients.
Abivax ($20.30) is listed on Euronext compartment B and is down 13% ytd.

Covid-19
06:30
GMT

Total cases 5,502,590
China 82,985 +11
Total deaths 346,761
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 1,686,436 (99,300)
Brazil 365,213 (22746)
Russia 344,481 (3541)
Spain 282,852 (28752)
UK 259,559 (36,793)*
Italy 229,858 (32,785)
France 182,584 (28,367)
Germany 180,328 (8371)
Indonesia 22,271 (1372)
Malaysia 7245 (115)

* 118 deaths yesterday
* 3853 cases per 1m pop
* 542 deaths per 1m pop
* 3.5m total tests
* 51,000 per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 5,502,590
New cases 8135*
Total deaths 346,761
New deaths 327**
Recovered 2,302,469 (42%)
* 2764 Mexico
* 1748 Pakistan
* 1595 Brazil

** 215 Mexico
** 34 Pakistan
** 30 Brazil
** 19 Sudan
** 10 Bolivia

Markets are quiet but broadly higher except HK which is 200 lower on fears of civil unrest breaking out again, there were trouble on the streets on Sunday when water canons had to be used to disperse unruly crowds of protestors. If China/HK tensions leads to HK losing it's free enterprise system that will be the end of Hong Kongs status as a financial hub. HK is the 7th largest financial centre in the World but faces still competition from Singapore. Billions of $ have been flowing out of HK to Singapore since the pro democracy protests and many of its ablest citizens are moving abroad fearing the worst from China.

News that the US had added 33 companies to the blacklist of Chinese companies for human rights violations passed by unnoticed. MSCI's Asia index was off a touch having opened higher helped by reports from Japan that the Govt will give a further $29bn of financial aid to companies caught up in the virus maelstrom, Japans Nikkei gained c.300, Casio electronics jumping 14% an early beneficiary.

Had it not been for world Govts slashing rates, pumping in huge sums of money into the Banking system and spending to support growth, mrkts would not be anywhere near 30% off lows.
As it is mrkts still have to face the reality of awful Q2 company earnings, tanking GDP, no vaccine and Trump, China tensions. The UK, US, Singapore/Indonesian markets are closed. Europe will open as usual.
At 1.00 JST
TK +296
HK -230
SH -1
SK +15

Nos:- Oil $35.29. Vix 28.
Gold $1727. Palm $608.
$ 1.218. €1.118. PI 6723.
MSCI(W) 492.
Morning all.

Covid-19
0:40
GMT

Total cases 5,404,382
China 82,974 +3
Total deaths 335,882
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 1,666,828 (98,683)
Brazil 349,113 (22,165)
Russia 335,882 (3388)
Spain 282,370 (28,678)
UK 257,154 (36,675)*
Italy 229,327 (32,735)
France 182,469 (28,332)
Germany 179,986 (8366)
Indonesia 21,745 (1351)
Malaysia 7185 (115)

* 282 deaths yesterday
* 3792 cases per 1m pop
* 541 deaths per 1m pop
* 3.35m total tests
* 49,352 tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 5,404,382
New cases 6432*
Total deaths 343,975
New deaths 367**
Recovered 2,247,234 (42%)

* Mexico 3329
* Brazil 1715

** Mexico 190
** Brazil 152

Covid-19
07:00
GMT

Total cases 5,306,237
China 82,971
Total deaths 340,047
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 1,645,094 (97,647)
Brazil 332,382 (21,116)
Russia 326,448 (3249)
Spain 281,904 (28,628)
UK 254,195 (36,393)*
Italy 228,658 (32,616)
France 182,219 (28,289)
Germany 179,713 (8352)
Indonesia 20,796 (1326)
Malaysia 7137 (115)

* 350 deaths yesterday
* 3747 cases per 1m pop
* 536 deaths per 1m pop
* 3.2m total tests
* 47,635 tests per 1m pop
* 14.3% fatality rate

Summary
Total cases 5,306,237
New cases 8,030*
Total deaths 340,047
New deaths 622**
Recovered 2,160m (41%)

* 2960 Mexico
* 1743 Pakistan
* 1492 Brazil

** 479 Mexico
** 68 Brazil
** 34 Pakistan
** 15 Bolivia

No change on Wall St yesterday ahead of the 3 day Memorial Holiday yet equities posted a c.3% gain on a week when China / US tensions surfaced following the Senate passing a bill which hinders Chinese companies from listing on US mrkts. China also failed to provide a Q2 forecast for GDP. Q1 fell nearly 7% so ball park figs would suggest at least 20% if US estimates prove on the money.

Late news the 100 year old Car Hire Co Hertz Corp has filed for bankruptcy. Hertz survived the Great Depression, World War 2 & various oil price shocks but could not survive the clutches of corona-v. Hertz shares have slumped 82% ytd and are likely worthless as the shares fell 33% after hours to $1.82. The Company intends to stay in business and will enter a restructuring process. Hertz owes c.$20bn and legendary investor Carl Ichan owns a big chunk. It's not the end of the road for Hertz as GM went through similar and survived.

Moderna got an unexpected boost from chief 'Medicine Man' Dr Anthony Fauci who said the "drug looks quite promising, better than we thought" shares up a touch to $69. Equities had their best week since wk15 despite the gloom but hopes of a vaccine and people returning to work, most US States are now emerging from lockdown therapy has lifted markets. The question is will mrkts go from a I into a U or an L recovery, V ruled out.
At close:
DJ -9 (24465)
SP +7 (2955)
NS +40 (9325)
R2 +8 (1356)
WTI $33.44
10y/tb 0.657%

The sell in May and go away is inconclusive, mtd the Dow is up 94, early days of course. Last year the Dow put on 320 over the May/Sept period.
Morning all.

A fairly typical "I wouldn't want to be holding these over"...end to wk. Friday tends to see sellers closing out positions and no difference here, just 2 buys among 49,200 sells last trade at 54.50. What looked a promising week petered out to end flat on over 700,000 volume.
Cpo advanced $26 to end the wk at $637 and averages c.$648 ytd. I reckon for May cpo will average c.$640 some $122 more than last year.

Month on month increase over last year:
Jan +$244
Feb +$93
Mar +$132
Apr +$113
May +$122e

London palms were lifeless MPE posting a 60 gain, I wouldn't swear to that...and REA continued to do very good two way business without going anywhere fast.

KLPI +543 (9%)
FP +65 (1%)
IDR +111 (0.75%)

Ftse +195 (3%)
AS +113 (3.5%)
250 +738 (5%)

Gold $1734 (-1.25%)
Brent $34.90 (+9%)
Have a good wk/end all....

Last price a sell (again) 673 at 58.07 not the 40,000 at 53.38 a LR/Sell from Wed. Vols respectable at 73,612 and cpo added $8 to $630. Hold 58 will be c.10 gain on the week it's a long time since we had a rise like that.

Covid-19
04:30
GMT

Total cases 5,194,211
China 82,971 +4
Total deaths 334,621
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 1,620,902 (96,354)
Russia 317,554 (3099)
Brazil 310,921 (20,082)
Spain 280,117 (27,940)
UK 250,908 (36,042)*
Italy 228,006 (32,486)
France 181,826 (28,215)
Germany 179,021 (8309)
Indonesia 20,162 (1278)
Malaysia 7059 (114)

* 338 deaths yesterday
* 3698 cases per 1m pop
* 531 deaths per 1m pop
* 3.1m total tests
* 45,552 tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 5,194,211
New cases 3715*
Total deaths 334,621
New deaths 448**
Recovered 2,081,511 (40%)

* 2973 Mexico
* 363 Kazakhstan
* 268 Bolivia

** 420 Mexico

Only one story in Asia this morning as the Hang Seng slumps 887 (4%) on reports that China is planning to enforce new security laws following last years pro democracy protests which bloodied the dragon's nose.
The laws would ban secession, foreign interference, sedition and terrorism. Not what mrkts want to hear as it risks stoking up US / China conflict and more trouble in the city.
HK has been one of the least affected in the region by corona-v, 1064 infections & 4 deaths.
However jobless rate topped 5% and the economy has tanked as consumer and tourist related spend has dried up. Visitors down 99% just as Ocean Park (Fun/theme park) needs a HK$5.4bn bail out with not a customer in sight.
At 11.30am JST
TK -90
HK -888
SH -31
SK -22

Futures called the mrkt lower and for a brief moment the Dow was down 60 before strong interest in Boeing (+6%) after an analyst upgrade & Mr RYANAIR still wanting MAX steadied invstr nerves. The Labour Dept report on wkly job losses held no surprises for mrkts coming in slightly better than forecast at 2.44m now c.20% of the workforce are laid up or scanning the job ads. The horror is that c.40% of jobs could be lost permanently.
In the last recession it took 10 years to recover 20m lost jobs. Its est that 70% of Americans could not last more than 3 months on savings so a return to work ever more pressing. Ben Bernanke ex Chair of the Fed said "no depression a recession yes." Some 30% of States reopening have reported a spike in new infections. Trump " we are not closing the country."

On the Co front *Astra Zeneca who incidentally invested $240m in a little known Co named Moderna in 2013 gained 3% after the US Govt said it would invest $1.2bn in a corona-v trial by AZ. *Moderna down 11% this morning on stock offering concerns. *Macys the renowned Dept Store warned on a $1bn loss in Q1 due to store closures.
Around 190 have reopened and a further 80 will before Memorial Day holiday, shares up 14c to $5.21
*LUCK IN.... lucks out, tumbling another 29% to $2.01 as co founder Luzhengyao said he will cont to fight for the company. Shorters mainly Inventino (HK) Capital have pocketed close to $1bn of mark to market gains. * BAIDU ($107) the giant Chinese search engine Co mulls delisting from Nsdq saying the Co would be better appreciated trading nearer home, toddle off then. Travel Co *Expedia ($79) swung to a Q1 loss as revs fell 15%, gross bookings down 40% & ebita loss of $76m. *BEST BUY dodged a bullet by some nifty footwork as Q1 nos beat pessimistic estimates by over 50% by shifting all their stores to a curbside only model and were able to match 80% of last years nos even though not a single customer entered the store.

After gaining 140 by mid morning the Dow dropped 240 as traders sold the swings. Oils, Banks, Entertainment & FAANGs all lower. WTI ($33.59) is up for the 6th straight day c.(22%). Remember when everyone said the 'Bull' was dead. Not yet. The mrkts resilience has been astounding so has the corona-v helped an ailing bull mrkt to survive by papering over cracks in the economy?
At close
DJ -102 (24474)
SP -23 (2949)
NS -91 (9285)
R2 +1 (1348)
WTI $33.83
10y/tb 0.667%

Nos: Oil $35.35. Vix 30.
Gold $1724. Palm $630.
$ 1.221. €1.116. PI 6766.
FP 6034. IDR 14,751.
MSCI(W) 494. FF -32.
DF -110.
Morning all.

Clarification required to previous announcements. No change in holding nos for Emba and Aberforth just the % of voting rights.
Proves the forms need updating preferably in language we can understand.