Member Info for JohnLewis79

As London closed down 137 the 30 had lost 280..... traders skimming profits off the first 296 spike of the day. Early afternoon the Dow moved up in fits and starts to 27,400 and the Nsdq Comp crossed the 10,000 milestone for the first time ever but was not able to sustain the upward path yet closed at a new alltime high of 9954.
At close:
DJ -300 (27272)
SP -25 (3207)
NS +29 (9954)
R2 -30 (1507)
WTI $38.28
10y/tb 0.829%

Nos: Oil$ 40.61. Vix 28.
Gold $1724. Palm $676.
$1.274. €1.123. IDR 14020
PI 6838. FP 6771. MSCI(W) 541. FF+12. DF +129.
Morning all.

US equity futures are signalling a pull back to overheated markets sending Treasuries, Gold & the greenback higher, the latter for the first time in nine days. The World Bank has warned of a 5.2% slump in global GDP and output falling for the first time in 60 years. Whatever the opening exchanges look like the major indices are trading above their 50,100 & 200 moving day averages and their is a ton of money waiting on the sidelines. The bull case is for 2021/2 the bears looking for a break, any break and it may come as 21 States have reported a resurgence of infections since lockdown rules were relaxed, one or two as high as 40%.

BEACH stocks will be hardest hit on opening today many have enjoyed the record rally in prices and value of around $21 trillion globally, a nos difficult to get your head around but looks like this,
............21,000,000,000,000...........
Thats too many zeros for me. An overdue pull back is on the cards so expect a 300+ fall at the opening bell rung by Stephen Katsarellis a NYSE Director. Its an honour usually reserved for Listed CEOs, Heads of State, retirees, Astronauts and disgruntled REA holders.

First dealings the Dow tanked 410 with the 500 off 34 and Nsdq down 55. Airlines as expected bore the brunt of selling *American off 10% ($18.21) *Jet Blue 9%, *Delta 8%, *United 8% & *Southwest 4%. *Hertz tags Airline moves fell 13% to $4.80, still some 500% up from stricken low point. Carl Ichan (84) one of the original 1960s corporate raiders built his fortune by taking controlling stakes in Companies. He was the bigest holder in Hertz but cashed in his chips at 70c taking a whopping $1.8bn hit which wont bother him a great deal as his net worth is c.$17bn according to Forbes. He saw too many toll booths ahead. After hours the stock was down 33% on the day at $3.79.
*Luck in Coffee down 11% ($4.28) today but still up c.90% on June 3rd low has a distinctly shaky future as CEO Lu Zhengyao faces a number of writs for alleged misdemeanors. A counter for hard core gamblers only. *Zoom down $5 ($205) has been a 5 Star performer this year up $137 has come off c.$20 since results due in part to people returning to the office and stiffer competition.

On the Co newsfront *Gilead confirmed the possible tie up with AZ has been abandoned it never looked a serious proposition, stock up a $1 at $78. Corona-v shares mixed this morning *Novavax up 6% ($47) & *Moderna u/c ($59). *Macys down 4% ($9.13) after reporting better than expected nos after opening 450 stores on June 1st. *Tiffany sales tanked 45% to $555m but in China are up 30% on same month last year. The Co confirmed the go ahead merger with LVMH. Shares up $2 to ($124).

After the initial mark down of 421 (27,151) *Apple led the bounce back to 27447 gaining 2% to ($339) but true to form *Boeing off 8% ($218) was among the laggards & you guessed it by close was in bottom spot with *Amex, *IBM & *Disney. Cont...

4:1 in favour of sellers this morning on mostly one-way trading but that's show business. Not much doing in Anglo c.4k traded and MPE just 420 dealt, REA 52,500 shares back below last nights close.

Appreciated rickmeister the kites in the post!...as to an successful investor it's been a rocky road for me. I was doing ok till my 'blood thing' went the way of many start ups...down the bloody pan and cost me a lot more than I bargained for despite me telling myself I had called the stock 'right'
That should have alerted me to my being 'wrong'. I am constantly reminded never to back a 'sure thing' and have to say I normally don't but on this occasion the blood rushed to my head! I have papered my flat with duff stock certificates.

I'm in REA, (likely my last tilt at this game) as in another life i managed a rubber/palm estate so know a little about the economics not that it's any benefit here! Anyways good luck & good timing in your investing battles.

Cpo now $110 up from May 6th, low ($571) and hopefully a strong finish to Q2 to average c.$ 660 for the H/Y ($536).

Last trade yesterday sell 23,000 at 59.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 7,199,544
China 83,040
Total deaths 408,737
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,026,493 (113,055)
Brazil 710,887 (37,312)
Russia 476,658 (5971)
Spain 288,797 (27,136)
UK 287,399 (40597)*
Italy 235,278 (33,964)
Germany 186,205 (8783)
France 154,188 (29,209)
Indonesia 32,033 (1883)
Malaysia 8329 (117)

* 55 deaths yesterday
* 1205 infections
* 4235 cases per 1m pop
* 598 deaths per 1m pop
* 5.7m total tests
* 84.5k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 7,199,544
New cases 9676*
Total deaths 408,737
New deaths 497**
Recovered 3.54m (49%)

* 4646 Pakistan
* 2999 Mexico
* 670 India

** 354 Mexico
** 105 Pakistan
** 10 Bolivia

Boeing led the mrkt higher at the off, topping the leaderboard for the 4th time in last 10 days adding 11% from the bell. 'Beach' stocks were snapped up by eager investors wanting exposure to the economy upturn and by 10:00 am the Dow was ahead 240.
Airlines, travel and leisure to the fore with American gaining 5% and 77% up over last 5 days, United put on 7%, Southwest 2% & Jet Blue 6%. Hertz joined in the fun jumping 110% ($5.86) expecting to gain from car hire and passenger traffic at airports. Not long ago Hertz was 84c. Hilton ($89) and Wynn Resorts up $6 ($107) were wanted.
Currently c.$137bn has been added to the Beach sector stocks as these are seen as early drivers of the revival and have outperformed the wider mrkt by some margin.

Corona-v were mixed Gilead up $1 ($77) set the tone on news of a possible merger with AZ. Moderna touted as the main vaccine winner u/c at $59 and Novavax down $3 at $44 and 20% down last 6 days. Big Oils were better and among second liners, Marathon and Noble were in demand gaining 8% & 10% with WTI $38.27 down $1.28.
Boeing has divided opinion like no other top 30 stock. Around 50% of analysts do not rate it a Buy and targets range from 120-270. At the top range Boeing would trade at c.15x FCFs none of which the Co earns at present. Top today, bottom tomorrow, who knows?

Investors will be focussing on the Feds updated policy statement projections on Wed. There will be n/c to rates (0%-0.25%) as equity mrkts have been buoyed by the Feds near $4tn support and the $7.2tn ballooning balance sheet. To change tack at this stage would be fatal. It ''takes what it takes" has been the Feds sacred text and behold it's been wondrous so far.
A note of caution several States Utah, Florida & California have reported a spike in infections since lockdown rules were relaxed. Infections rose 18,905 on Sunday.
A late pm jump of c.200 saw the Dow through 27,500 (6th straight win day) and the the 500 had moved into the black ytd.
At close
DJ +461 (27572)
SP +38 (3232)
NS +111 (9928)
R2 + 30 (1537)
WTI $38.62
10y/tb 0.0844%

Nos: Oil $41.09. Vix 25.8.
Gold $ 1702. Palm $677.
$1.271. €1.226. IDR 13950
PI 6885. FP 6894. MSCI(W) 544.
FF +2. DF -46.
Morning all.

Seems the planets, cpo and REAs sp are aligning up. Is this a flash in the cosmos, a gas giant about to flare out or here to burn brightly?
Gotta think the latter REA always looked oversold at 49 which represented a testing of demand and little else. Trading vols are much higher here than at Anglo & MPE perhaps confirming our undervalued asset or just a cheaper outlay.

Even at 100, value is less than £45m which would still make it one of the cheapest stocks I have owned. I have added a few more for the longterm unfortunately I dont have enough to trade the swings and keep a core holding at the same time so it's in for the long haul. I'm ok with that but would like to see a trading update before Xmas!

Covid-19
05:00
GMT
Total cases 7,091,659
China 83,040 +4
Total deaths 406,195
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,007,449 (112,469)
Brazil 691,962 (37,312)
Russia 467,673 (5859)
Spain 288,630 (27,136)
UK 286,194 (40,542)*
Italy 234,998.(33,899)
Germany 185,869 (8776)
France 153,977 (29,155)
Indonesia 31,186 (1851)
Malaysia 8322 (117)

* 77 deaths yesterday
* 1326 infections
* 4217 cases per 1m pop
* 597 deaths per 1m pop
* 5.6m total tests
* 82.3k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 7,091,659
New cases 9447*
Total deaths 406,195
New deaths 1114**
Recovered 3.461m (49%)

* 4728 Pakistan
* 3484 Brazil
* 285 Bolivia

** 813 Brazil
** 188 Mexico
** 65 Pakistan

Asian investors took their queue from 2.5m US job nos returning in May a turnaround nobody saw coming. That news turbocharged US Exchanges now 4% up on a 52wk view. The Nikkei led the way 212 better in morning business, motors Nissan and Hino up 5% & 6% top the board, followed by HK gaining 151, SHCOMP up 7 & Shenzen Chinas No3 junior mrkt (if you inc HK) adding 9. So called as its situated in the city of Shenzen and is ranked 7th in the world by mrkt cap. China posted a record trade surplus as imports fell. The nos were expected.

As many countries start the process of phasing out lockdowns demand & usage for oil is seen to be increasing. Oils were also boosted by Opec and friends agreeing to extend output cuts for another month. Brent $42.94 up $1.06 and WTI $39.85 added 30c. Brent has gained 51% since equities slumped in March (wk 11).
On currencies 100 Yen buys you c.90c and 100 Yuan gets you $14 if your heading that way.
At 1.00pm JST:
TK +266
HK +39
SH +8
SK +3

Nos: Oil $42.87. Vix 24.5.
Gold $1691..Palm $652.
$1.271. €1.125. IDR 13922
10y/tb 0.902%. PI 6787.
MSCI(W) 539. FF -31. DF +48.
Morning all.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT
Total cases 6,976,045
China 83,036 +6
Total deaths 402,170
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 1,988,544 (112,096)
Brazil 676,494 (36,044)
Russia 458,689 (5725)
Spain 288,390 (27,135)
UK 284,868 (40,465)*
Italy 234,801 (33,846)
Germany 185,696 (8769)
France 153,634 (29,142)
Indonesia 30,514 (1801)
Malaysia 8603 (117)

* 1557 infections
* 204 deaths yesterday
* 4198 cases per 1m pop
* 596 deaths per 1m pop
* 5.44m total tests
* 80.1k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 6,976,045
New cases 7685*
Total deaths 402,170
New deaths 471**
Recovered 3.411m (49%)

* 3593 Mexico
* 2907 Brazil
* 630 Bolivia

** 341 Mexico
** 87 Brazil
** 27 Bolivia

Evil K'nievel is of the opinion that REA is very cheap at up to 100. I agree. The MPE nos provided a good deal of comfort for 'waiverers' undecided about investing in the demon oil.With only 5 'known' palm companies listed in London the selection is limited. Three in Indo/Malaysia and two in West Africa. I dont follow the West African ones but they trade at under 5p so are what used to be called 'penny dreadfuls' counters under 10p. I think shares under 100 are now classed as penny stocks.

Indonesia has cut the cost of converting cpo into B30 biodiesel by 20% to $80 per metric ton so as to make bio more competitive with gasoil.
The black stuff has been climbing strongly these last few weeks, up $16 (62%) since May so with the cpo 20% cost reduction prices are much more competitive. Improving domestic demand for biodiesel will partly offset reduced global demand for palm oil.

Covid-19
0:500
GMT

Total cases 6,850 274
China 83,030 +3
Total deaths 398,244
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 1,965,708 (111,390)
Brazil 646,006 (35,047)
Russia 449,834 (5528)
Spain 288,058 (27,134)
UK 283,311 (40261)*
Italy 234,531 (33,774)
Germany 185,414 (8763)
France 153,055 (29,111)
Indonesia 29,521 (1770)
Malaysia 8266 (116)

* 1650 new infections
* 357 deaths yesterday
* 4175 cases per 1m pop
* 593 deaths per 1m pop
* 5.2m total tests
* 77k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 6,850,274
New cases 10,787*
Total deaths 398,244
New deaths 798**
Recovered 3.351m (49%)

* 4734 Pakistan
* 4346 Mexico
* 483 Bolivia
* 473 India

** 625 Mexico
** 97 Pakistan
** 58 Guatemala
** 12 Bolivia

Theres no stopping equities they keep going higher and higher. The Dow rocketed up 1057 by mid'day the S&P gained 70 techs up 165 and Small Caps (R2) 58, truly shades of the 1960 'Go Go' years.
What shocked traders was the news that the forecast 8m job losses turned in to 2.5m jobs coming back the largest gain on record, lowering the jobless rate to 13% and not the 20% forecast, proof that the economy is recovering quicker than expected. Ok these nos were coming off some diabolically bad nos in May. Nonetheless like the stock market heading in the right direction.

Gains are too numerous to mention but standouts must be the BEACH stocks which have been on the up escalator ever since WB dumped his entire Airways holdings. He's taken a bath on these going down and missed out on the bounce back. American shot up 29%, United 21%, Jet Blue 9% & lagging the others Southwest at 4%. Cruise companies fared well Carnival added 20% & Royal Caribbean 14%. MGM Resorts gained 8% and Banks put on 4% on hopes of a economic revival.

As we have come to expect if Boeing ain't bottom it tops the popper-most board up 11% at $205. The recovery has been remarkable up $84 (69%) since early May ( 37% down ytd). Not quite a Big Board clean sweep as Wallmart & Pfizer slipped into the red. Energy was the best sector WTI gaining 6% ($39.55), Exxon up 8% ($53) & Chevron 5% ($101)
The Nsdq 100 closed at a new record and the Nsdq Composite fell 3 short. Recent punter fave plays Hertz climbed 71% ($2.57)
Luck In Coffee 36% ($5.51) and corona-v stocks were mixed Gilead, Moderna lower Novavax up $2 ($46).

Ending an amazing week here's the nos for the wk and ytd.
Wk 23
DJ +1728 (7%)
SP +150 (5%)
NS +324 (3%)
R2 +113 (8%
Ytd
DJ (27111) (-5%)
SP (3194) (-1%)
NS (9814) (+9%)
R2 (1507) (-10%)
MSCI(W) 539 (-4%)
WT1 $38.94 (-36%)
10y/tb 0.893%
Morning all.

Fridays dealings brought total wks volumes to damn near 500,000 and for an "eventless" week, that's some going in REA speak.
Shares ticked up a touch on the week. The best performers Anglo added 22 & MPE 20, others flat.
Cpo gained $13 on wk closing at $651 and averages c.$647 ytd. From MPEs update they achieved an average selling price of $550 but I dont conclude REA 'achieved' similar given I'm not sure how & where MPE effect cpo sales.

If REA did that would be c.$100 more than rec'd in 2019. Should go someway to reducing losses in H1 ex any 'it didnt rain' impairments etc,... Given the 'allegedly' small free float and buyers trumping sellers by a good margin the shares have performed poorly.
Anglo and MPE quite regularly have double digit sp gains, MPE with larger outstandings & Anglo with similar. I can't remember when REA put on 10p or more it's as if 'mates rates' are the rule here. We're nearly half way through the year and my 125 y/e prediction has bitten the dust. Next best guess 100 tops.

Very good trading update from MPE this morning, shares up 30 on the presentation. REA might catch a bit of 'reflected glory' dont hold your breath.....

It's a Friday so dont expect fireworks...as if you did! Vols drop off as the weekend nears.
Last Friday vols declined to a trickle just 9100 traded but a healthy 345,000 on the wk which has already been exceeded.

It's been more than a month since the flash crash (88-49) and the interest shows no sign of wavering though bargains have dropped off. Have to say that has surprised the hell out of me....long may it continue in REA realms of course!
You could be excused for thinking REA never 'got be the Co they coudda been' ---- a well oiled money machine..... Too long a story but Heh, that's life down at poverty level, worth owning for the love/hate experience.

Labour shortages are impacting Malaysian oil palm estates thanks to the corona-v lockdowns in Bangladesh and India. Around 70% of palm workers come from outside of Malaysias borders. Palm oil collection requires 25x the labour of soy or rapeseed as the bunches are very heavy and grow at heights of 50ft+

In rubber you can stop production, simply stop tapping the rubber trees. In palm you cannot. Fruit will rot if left too long, it will oxidise and increase acidity reducing oil quality.
They must also be pruned to be kept healthy for the years ahead. All very Labour intensive as most is harvested by hand.

Malaysia also suffers from lower wages than Indonesia thus attracting workers is becoming much harder. No doubt output already 10% lower will likely drop by 20% or more by year end.