Member Info for JohnLewis79

An early 36 rise on the Dow as equities try for a 4th straight gain soon went south thanx to 136 new infections in Beijing.
At 10:00 am the 30 had lost 112 points weighed down by Boeing, Exxon, JPMC & IBM. Msoft and Visa cutting the losses to c.30 points kept the techs above par. The info/tech has been the best sector performer up 17% since the WHO called the covid-19 a pandemic. The Dows best is Dow inc up 31% and worst Boeing off 16%.

The Chinese authorities have closed Beijing airport to flights in and out of the city, shut down schools and have restricted movement around the Xinfadi district of Beijing where the latest outbreak occurred. In the US Texas reported an 11% increase of infections with similar flare ups in Arizona & Florida where State Governors are loathe to reinstate lockdowns. As long as negative virus news persists the economy will stall and stocks slump. Despite the Fed's largess it cannot Spirit away the virus. A 'second wave' will surely end Trumps two term ambitions.

Recent punter favourite Hertz now in the dog house slipped to below $2.00 early on and any money made here is staying well away. The 'shorts' see the sp a lot lower particularly because there are major worries as to who owns the rental cars. At 11.45am the NYSE halted trading in Hertz pending a Company announcement. Hertz filed for bankruptcy in late May and has been the subject of intensely negative press reports. Hertz resumed trading after pulling its $500m stock offering and closed at $1.90. Next stop the knackers yard.
Only Novavax up $5 ($57) gained among Corona-v counters. Airlines suffered profit taking most off c.$2-$4 with cruise liner operators Carnival down 6%, RC off 7% & Norwegian 6% as it extended suspension of global trips. Housing starts a bellwether of the economy saw a 4% rise to 970,000 below the 1.1m expected.

At 2:00pm the Dow was up 72 points though decliners outnumbered advances by 1614 to 1314 with 16/30 Dow components in the black. The afternoon crowd sold out of positions taking the Dow down over 150 as concerns over the resurgence of the virus outweigh all other factors. Dow futures were heading 340 lower ending a choppy day of trading the 'bull case' just holding up for today.
DJ -170 (26,120)
SP -11 (3113)
NS + 15 (9911)
R2 -26 (1427)
WTI $37.27
10y/tb •707%

Nos: Oil $40.26. Vix 33.
Gold $1735. Palm $693.
$1.254. €1.115. IDR 14061
PI 6745. FP 6693. MSCI(W) 528. FF-90. DF -300.
Morning all.

Is there an embargo on REA trading today? Wouldn't do well on the Mogadishu I can tell you!
Crude $693 is on a go flat today with other London palms. The 1 trade was called off side....

In Aug 2018 REA realised $85m for the sale of PBJ Estate at c.$11,333 p/ha (£$1.25) or c.200 pps.
Prices have come off since then, in June 2019 the value was down to c.$10,933. Currently inc the prefs the EV p/ha is est at $7430 (Hardman). With 33,400 p/ha would rate a £200m or 456 pps valuation. That's a 391p cushion or margin of safety. Whether that gap would ever narrow to par has about as much chance as me winning the Open.

Just noticed a 1 trade at 69.50 might be jobber code for I need shares?

Covid-19
07:00
GMT
Total cases 8,264,468
China 83,265 +44
Total deaths 446,135
China 4634

Countries 213
USA 2,208,400 (119,132)
Brazil 928,834 (45,456)
Russia 545,458 (7284)
UK 298,136 (41,969)*
Spain 291,408 (27,136)
Italy 237,500 (34,405)
Germany 188,382 (8910)
France 157,716 (29,547)
Indonesia 40,400 (2231)
Malaysia 8505 (121)

* 238 deaths yesterday
* 1279 infections
* 4393 cases per 1m pop
* 618 deaths per 1m pop
* 7m total tests
* 103k tests per 1m pop
* 14% fatality rate
* 6% global fatality rate.

Summary
Total cases 8,264,468
New cases 13,244*
Total deaths 446,135
New deaths 947**
Recovered 4.3m (52%)

* 5839 Pakistan
* 4599 Mexico
* 810 Bolivia

** 730 Mexico
** 136 Pakistan
** 27 Bolivia

Nothing doing in Asia this morning, stocks have run out of puff after yesterdays big gains across the region. Investors looked through the 28% drop in May exports as a 'one-off'. The Nikkei posted a 5% jump of 1051 points to (22,582) yesterday so a pull back was expected.

That's some 16,375 points off the all time high hit on 29/12/1989 thirty one years ago. Some consolation its nearing a 3yr high. Incidentally the Hang Seng was c.2830 in 1989 current 24,337.
At 1:00 JST
TK -208
HK +3
SH -3
SHZ -2
SK -9

While Boeing stock cont to climb ever higher Quantas Airways is retiring its last 2 Boeing 747s sending them to their final resting place in the Mojave Desert. So it was only fit that Boeing set the scene for a bright start to trading.
The Nikkei gained (5%) & Europe rose as investor risk appetite (FOMO) was whetted by the Feds boost to liquidity & Trumps recent $1tn infrastructure support. Coming just before Nov elections this could be a game changer for Trump boosting his re-election chances (5/4) v Biden 5/6f. China is playing it's part, loading up on soy, wheat and pork imports exceeding what had been agreed at phase-one trade talks. Vaccine drug Dexamethasone out of Oxford has invstrs excited on trial results. Its a steroid and has been around for many years, available in pharmacies now. Its proven to reduce the risk of death by 35% in serious covid-19 cases. Other Corona-v counters have gone off the boil with little interest shown today.

Futures have the Dow up c.500 and the breadth of the S&P is exemplified by 82% of constituents trade above their 50 DMA & 40% above 200 DMA both signals of bullish momentum. The bell heralded a 800 jump on the 30, Boeing up 8% ($207) led the charge no top 30 stock in the red. Airlines flew up an average of 5% and news from the EIA that oil demand will increase by 500,000 bpd sent energies higher, WTI ($38.35), Exxon & Chevron up 4% & 3%. Even Hertz found buyers gaining 17c to a weak $2.05. Cat was boosted on infrastructure projects as new roads etc will need heavy duty goods vehicles topped the big board at days close up 5% ($130).
Retail sales nos were better than forecast jumping c.18% but optimism over the nos soon waned the Dow tumbling 420 on news out of China that a school in Beijing was closed down due to an outbreak of corona-v.

The National Assoc of House Builders saw improvement in the confidence index as mortgage applications & enquiries surge. The missing piece is until the public believe the virus is defeated noone will be entirely confident of spending as they used to thus putting a brake on the economy.
Trading in a narrow band in the afternoon the Dow closed up 527 the 3rd straight for the averages.
DJ +527 (26,290)
SP +58 (3125)
NS +170 (9896)
R2 +33 (1452)
WTI ($37.42)
10y/tb 0.731%

Nos: Oil $40.10. Vix 34.
Gold $1732. Palm $691.
$1.255. € 1.114. IDR 14090.
PI 6746. FP 6620. MSCI(W) 528.
FF -6. DF -115.
Morning all.

Fed moves boosted Asia this morning and BOJ will increase lending by c.$300m $1.02tn & leave rates at -1%. The bank said the economy will stay in a severe situation for sometime. Infection increases in China ignored.
At 1:15 JST
TK +897 (4%)
HK +702 (3%)
SH +25
SZ +17
SK +84 (4%)

Covid-19
O:430
GMT

Total cases 8,118,505
China 83,221 +40
Total deaths 439,195
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 2,182,950 (118,283)
Brazil 891,556 (44,118)
Russia 537,210 (7091)
UK 296,857 (41,736)*
Spain 291,189 (27,136)
Italy 237,290 (34,371)
Germany 188,040 (8855)
France 157,372 (29,436)
Indonesia 39,294 (2198)
Malaysia 8494 (121)

* 38 deaths yesterday
* 968 infections
* 4374 cases per 1m pop
* 615 deaths per 1m pop
* 6•9m total tests
* 103k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 8,118,505
New cases 9838*
Total deaths 439,195
New deaths 599**
Recovered 4•2m (52%)

* 4443 Pakistan
* 3427 Brazil
* 614 Bolivia

** 439 Mexico
** 110 Pakistan
** 21 Bolivia

A late afternoon sell off in Asia sent Dow futures tumbling pre mrkt as much as 1000 at one point. Worries over a flare up of corona-v cases in Beijing and S.Korea started the slide. Sentiment is very fragile and turns on the flip of the virus coin.

Europe followed the Far East lower and Dow futures were heading 650 down with the 500 off 50 and techs c.140. About 22 US States have reported Corona-v infection flare ups and hospitalizations which have not yet led to the reinstatement of lockdowns. The c.$600 benefit provided to the jobless will stop come end of July as its seen as a disincentive to seek employment. On the economy front retail sales are due tomorrow and the Empire NY State business activity nos steadied after 2 months of declines.

Co news....Airlines and cruise companies are c.8% lower as the 30 opens 762 down with Boeing at the bottom joined by Exxon, Cat, Nike & Travellers. No top 30 in the black. *Hertz tanked 22% ($2.20) as a Court agreed to the offering of $500m worth of stock to investors. Sellers ran for the exits dumping stock fearing a return to $1 status and the stock being worthless. *United Airlines secured a $5bn loyalty loan shares down 6% to $37 as it planned to issue 28m Common and in a startling move the NSDQ100 kicked United off its index of top non financial cos listed on US exchanges. It will be replaced by *Docu Sign. United said in response it would have $17bn in liquidity by Q3. Corona-v's Moderna ($64) and Novavax ($48) both gained $3 and Kroger the Grocer lost 50c to $32. *AZ could be supplying 400m doses of a vaccine if proving effective in an agreed deal with the EU and *24 Hour Fitness filed for bankruptcy due to covid-19 issues as it was unable to service its $1.3bn debt following the leveraged buy out in 2014. Wholesale gym closures & subs cancellations left the business in ruins.

Broker comment saw buyers rush back buying stocks at session low. The Dow crossed the 25,000 line fuelled by Morgan Stanley & backed up by L.Kudrow White House economic advisor saying a V shaped recovery is likely in Q2 2021. MS raised their S&P target to 3500 implying a 20x earnings forecast.
A powerful rally was under way as the Fed started buying Bonds as part of the $trillion support program in the corporate credit facility mrkt & equities rose throughout the afternoon. Not Hertz which tanked 35% ($1.84). From 24800 low the rally topped out at 25763 closing 5 off session high.
DJ+157 (25763)
SP +25 (3067)
NS +137 (9726)
R2 +32 (1420)
WTI $37.12
10y/tb •702%

Nos: Oil $39.71. Vix 34.
Gold $1738. Palm $688.
$1.267.€ 1.117. IDR 14092
PI 6788. FP6498. MSC1W
517. FF+163. DF +550.
Morning all.

Agreed, ditto volumes!

A month ago REA closed at 48.60 (years low), cpo ($611). Expect today to be little changed for a 39% sp gain since May 15th.

Dow futures (-770) dragging the ftse to a 100+ opening fall on virus infections spiking.

Down start to wks trading in the Far East a spike in infections in S.Korea (+36) and China (+11), none in Japan, HK or Taiwan took precedence over the rally in US mrkts on Friday.

This second spike of infections was linked to a wholesale food market in a district of Beijing. Mrkts are of the opinion any 2nd wave will be easier to deal with so no need to panic...just yet unless the '2nd Big Wave' is out there waiting to hit.
Crude came off in early trading Brent down 3% ($37), WT1 ($35.37) and Yuan/USD 7.087. China reported Industrial output figs up 4% forecast (5%) and retail sales declined 3% y-o-y. Tuesday US retail sales.
Tata Motors (Jaguar/Land Rover) Q4 earnings are forecast to drop 44% to INR 485bn, revenues of INR 2.922bn for the year, profits of INR 4.47per share (INR 2.80).
At 1:00 JST
TK -212
HK -150
SH u/c
SHZ +19
SK -9

Nos: Oil $37.94. Vix 36.
Gold $1635. Palm $690.
$1.252. €1.112. IDR14127.
PI 6746. MSCI(W) 517.
FF -35. DF -430.
Morning all.

Covid-19
04:00
GMT

Total cases 7,988,615
China 83,811 +49
Total deaths 435,446
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,162,144 (117,853)
Brazil 867,882 (43,389)
Russia 528,964 (6948)
UK 295,889 (41,698)*
Spain 291,008 (27,136)
Italy 236,989 (34,345)
Germany 187,427 (8870)
France 157,220 (29,407)
Indonesia 38,227 (2134)
Malaysia 8453 (121)*

* 36 deaths yesterday
* 1514 infections
* 4360 cases per 1m pop
* 614 deaths per 1m pop
* 6.7m total tests
* 99•8k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 7,988,615
New cases 4308*
Total deaths 435,446
New deaths 270**
Recovered 4•1m (51%)

* 4147 Mexico
* 74 Venezuela
* 49 China

** 269 Mexico
** 1 Venezuela

Some Derby the worlds largest producer of palm oil said it was making its higher yielding oil palm trees publically available.
World population growth is predicted to drive a 70% increase in palm demand needing c.900m ha of new land globally. Sime Derby said its 10 year research program has developed a higher yielding palm oil seed called GenomeSelect that increases output by 20%. The firm is scaling up production of the new seed to meet it's own needs as well as expected demand from the industry.

Sime Derby also said it was developing oil palms that are easier to harvest, resilient to climate change and disease tolerant. We hope this research will open up new routes to meet demand growth while drawing the line on deforestation at the same time. Sounds like the Holy Grail to me.

Covid-19
04:00
GMT
Total cases 7,860,752
China 8132 +57
Total deaths 432,200
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,142,224 (117,527)
Brazil 850,796 (42,791)
Russia 520,129 (6829)
UK 294,375 (41,662)*
Spain 290,685 (27,136)
Italy 236,651 (34,301)
Germany 187,423 (8867)
France 156,813 (29,398)
Indonesia 37,420 (2091)
Malaysia 8445 (120)

* 181 deaths yesterday
*1425 infections
* 4337 cases per 1m pop
* 614 deaths per 1m pop
* 6•6m total tests
* 98k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 7,860,752
New cases 5256*
Total deaths 432,200
New deaths 472**
Recovered 4m (51%)

* 3494 Mexico
* 913 Bolivia
* 509 Guatemala

** 424 Mexico
** 26 Bolivia
** 16 Guatemala

Palm oil demand shot up in the first 10 days of June by c.62% to 543,600t said PublicInvest Research. It is a timely recovery as palm trees will be heading into the high production cycle of Q3.
Malaysia exports are expected to increase 10% mom to 1.5mt driven up by China & EU demand. Cpo futures will be cautious looking to global infections to stabilise. The benchmark palm oil contract (25mt) for Aug delivery was off 21 ringgit to 2345, the last cpo trade 2418 ringgit.

Demand is seen increasing from key importing countries as Hotels, restaurants, reopen for business. Producing countries Indonesia & Malaysia have cut export duty to zero%.
The sector has a 'Neutral' stance up from 'underweight" said a Hwang Bank analyst.

Volume wise a good wk with c.331,000 traded. Last price a sell as per..at 65.5 for 700 (ask 71.50) 9%. You can get inside the wide spread but not by much. Other London palms were mixed. Moves on week:
Anglo +32
DKL - •5
Epa u/c
MPE -50
REA +7

Ytd
Anglo -48 (8%)
Dkl -1.10 (30%)
Epa - 0.375 (50%)
Mpe -186 (26%)
Rea -102 (61%)

Cpo -$109 (14%)
Cpko -$77 (10%)
KLPI -947 (12%)
FP(UK) -1664 (20%)

Covid-19
04:00
GMT

Total cases 7,732,948
China 83,075 +11
Total deaths 428,248
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,116,922 (116,825)
Brazil 829,902 (41,901)
Russia 511,423 (6715)
UK 292,950 (41,481)*
Spain 290,289 (27,136)
Italy 236,305 (34,223)
Germany 187,251 (8863)
France 156,287 (29,374)
Indonesia 36,406 (2048)
Malaysia 8402 (119)

* 202 deaths yesterday
* 1541 infections
* 4316 cases per 1m pop
* 611 deaths per 1m pop
* 6.4m total tests
* 95k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 7,732,948
New cases 6932*
Total deaths 428,248
New deaths 559**
Recovered 4m (52%)

* 5222 Mexico
* 764 Bolivia
* 463 Honduras

** 504 Mexico
** 26 Bolivia

A good start is assured across the pond, Dow futures point to a near 600
rise, yet sentiment is fragile, economic news shaky & infection worries persist. Likely shorts closing and some optimistic bottom fishers have set the tone for the advance.
Investors will be praying it's not a dead cat bounce as often occurs following a big sell off. For instance
a few recent examples.
March 16 - 2997
March 17 +1049
March 18 - 1388

March 27 -915
March 28 +691
March 29 -410
June 1st -974
June 2nd +469
June 3rd -361

Trading the swings can be very profitable if your close to the action but imo best left to professionals. I dont trade stocks anymore I prefer to look at least a year ahead, smooth out Mr Market's manic moods and sleep well at night. Tough under present conditions.

Opening deals were struck as the Dow posted 25,817 (+688) only another 1,200 to go, we'll see if this cat has more than one bounce. On Co news Hertz wants to sell 247m new stock to raise c.$1bn a unique opportunity for debtors to raise capital on better terms, shares up 46% to $2.92 ($2.83 after hours). Best of luck with that, absolutely crazy. Why it should be allowed to trade while insolvent is beyond me, anyways at $3 a pop no chance of raising $1bn. Airlines and Cruises were all in demand gaining around 7%-14% and Corona-v stocks doing little awaiting a vaccine breakthrough.

Just after 10:00 am the Dow slumped 740 on a trader induced sell off almost wiping out session gains. As London closed at 6105 down 379 on wk, the 30 traded 394 better with yesterdays losers topping the big board. Boeing leading the way 12% ahead with Cisco, IBM & Dow inc. Heading south Intel, Wallmart, Merck & Verizon Comm.
Another rise was quickly sold into taking 550 off the second spike now 12 in the red as bulls and bears fight for dominance.

A volatile session ended with support coming at the 25,000 level for the 30 & 3000 for the S&P pushed up 537 by the afternoon crowd.
NYSE vol at 522m was above normal. All 3 major indices ended down an average 4% on the week. Oh yes, Kroger the Grocer slipped a touch to $32.
DJ +477 (25606)
SP +39 (3041)
NS +96 (9589)
R2 +31 (1388)
WTI $36.54
10y/tbh 0.71%

Nos: Oil $38.95. Vix 36.
Gold $1737. Palm $690.
$1.254. € 1.114. PI 6786. FP 6496.
IDR 14,150. MSCI(W) 524.
Morning all.