Member Info for JohnLewis79

Cpo dropped $49 (7%) on the wk and ytd averages c.$654. REA off a couple of pence, Anglo & Mpe both gained 12 &15 respectively.
KLPI put on 153 (2%) and Crude added $2.05 to $42.85 (5%). Equities were flat the ftse up 10 the All added 6 and the 250 gained 189. Given the continuing
global infection increases a fair result.

You could easily die of boredom waiting for a microscopic move in the spread but to be fair we had our 'fix' when an iis sold out & trading vols went through the REA roof, so mus'nt complain when things go very quiet as some counters go cold and die of inertia.
It's at moments like these when Co action takes pis by surprise or as I prefer to think over active imagery on the part of invstrs trying to drum up trading on spurious merger, take over talk that keeps one motivated to stay here. So far.....nothing of that sort has occurred here.

Must say I have near pushed the sell button a few times since sp 49 but always resisted after a walk to clear my head. In this backwater of the mrkt expecting anything more is unlikely and not being compensated by way of a dividend makes investment here hard to recommend. Banking on the EV to Mcap discount to right itself has proved muddle headed on my part, no change there!
Covid-19 has kiboshed most pis hopes for their holdings even the bluest of the Blue Chips have been waylaid so we're about right given the new mrkt paradigm for valuing stocks....., ie do'nt bother.

Sit and suffer or move on
is the best I can come up without being fanciful that a bigger outfit will make us an offer we could'nt refuse. "Dream on...dream on until your dreams come true"...so sang Aerosmith and they sure did for them so why not Rea'smith?

A new report by the Rainforest Foundation Norway says current targets for boosting biofuel product is likely to lead to a massive increase of demand for palm/soyoil by 2030. Under a 'high' demand scenario total demand for palm oil may increase to 61mt or 90% of current global output and for soy to 41mt (75% of output).

The increase would cause an est 7mha (17m acres) of deforestation and 3.6mha of peat drainage for oil palms. Global CO2 emissions from this extra
expansion are est to be 11.5bn, more than Chinas current annual emissions from burning fossil fuels.

The Indonesian Govt has been blasted by campaigners and smallholders for allocating $195m of the Budget to a) artificially support the biodiesel price and swell the coffers of the multinationals at the expense of small lot farmers. A few dozen families control the palm oil industry and are worth an est $88bn. Wilmar rec'd 55% of the $530m in subsidies handed out to 5 oil palm companies, while incomes for smallholders have been decimated by covid-19. Pre the disease farmers were receiving 1200+ rupiah per palm fruit kilogram, now just 700 so at this rate the annual income will be $130 (5% of the minimum annual wage). That's not sustainable.

Crude oil demand is better than thought as US Oil inventories fell more than forecast which makes palm biodiesel a more economic proposition.
Malaysian palm oil futures snapped a 5 day drop tracking soy on the CBOT, the benchmark palm contract for Sept delivery
on BMDE rose 1•3% to 2327 ringgit ($544). Supporting the rise was an overnight jump in the soy price to its highest in 3 months ($684/May).

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 10,985,656
China 83,542 +5
Total deaths 524,088
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,837,189 (131,485)??
UK (n/a) (43,995)*
Indonesia 59,394 (2987)
Malaysia 8643 (121)

??57236 more infections
??687 increase of deaths

* 89 deaths yesterday
* n/a for infections
* 4180 cases per 1m pop
* 648 deaths per 1m pop
* 9•9m total tests
* 146k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 10,985,656
New cases 11,235
Total deaths 524,088
New deaths 846
Recovered 6•1m (56%)

Another bumper start to the days trading the Dow leaps 440 at the bell helped by Blue Chippers and more significantly the surge was due to the much larger than expected increase in jobs.
Boeing, Exxon & Amex were all on investor buy lists in particular pis fave Boeing added $2 to $183 on news the MAX Jet had passed its 3 day FAA trial with flying colours.

The June jobs report showed 4•8m jobs were created in June, almost 2m more than the most optimistic forecasts and unemployment falling from 13% to 11% in May was cheered by investors who flooded back into equities buoyed by the resilience of the economy. Last month economists forecasted a loss of 8m jobs in May, instead the economy gained 2.5m payrolls.
Sectors boosted by the news were Hotels, Leisure, Airlines & Cruises. Marriott, Hilton & MGM gained on average 2•5%, Airlines took off led by Jet Blue up 4% while RC, Norwegian & Carnival put on c.3% for the sailing community. Zoom the video conferencing bizz has grained $54 this month to $262, valuing the Co at c.$74bn, more than the US Airline industry.

Teslas share price which flew past $1000 two days ago jumped over 200 this morning on news of 90650 vehicles were delivered to dealers in Q2 significantly better than anyone imagined. Proving Mr Musk has read the electric car mrkt right despite the virus and economic woes, he is leaving the competition in his rear view mirror. GM, Toyota, Chrysler & Ford saw Q2 sales slump 30% yet Musk managed to sell over 11000 cars made in his Shanghai plant. Teslas sales pale in comparison to Toyota whose unit nos are 29× higher but they ain't the most valuable car maker in the World and that's what counts at the poker table.

The Dow up 469 earlier got caught in the crossfire of buyers & sellers slipping back to 25850 before bouncing back to 26,000 at lunch. The Nsdq 110 better at 10265 after 10310. Late on profit takers clipped 200 off the days gains as the infection rate continues to spiral upwards in many States, 8000 new cases in Texas where wearing a face mask is now mandatory. Mrkts are closed today for Independence Day.
DJ +92 (25827)
SP +14 (3130)
NS +53 (10208)
R2 +5 (1432)

Nos: Oil $42.83. Vix 28.
Gold $1788. Palm $665.
$1.247. €1.108. IDR 14577
MSCI(W) 532.10yt/b 0•67%
FF +7. DF +32.
Morning all.

Last trade a sell of 15,000 at 55. How long before were sub 50 which seems to be the direction of travel? No rush to buy I'm aiming when I add to a losing position to lower my avc by c.8%-10%. That would mean REA at 50'ish. I can wait.
I'm finding cpo closing prices to be completely diff from mine. Instance June 30th I have $646 yet inv.com has c.$701and on the 29th I have $657 they have c.$703. Who knows like trading vols treat with a pinch of salt. Current price c.$663 give or take...

Covid-19
04:00
GMT
Total cases 10,803,599
China 85,537 +3
Total deaths 518,968
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 2,779,953 (130,798)
UK 313,483 (43,906)*
Indonesia 57,770 (2934)
Malaysia 8640 (121)

* 176 deaths yesterday
* 829 infections
* 4618 cases per 1m pop
* 647 deaths per 1m pop
* 9•7m total tests
* 142k tests per 1m pop
* 14% fatality rate
* •65% pop fatality rate

Summary
Total cases 10,803,599
New cases 8499
Total deaths 518,968
New deaths 910
Recovered 6m (56%)

Day 1 of the second half of the year opened with a bang and sped up 200 by 10:00am on news that a private payroll reported encouraging hiring nos and some positive corona-v clinical data from Pfizer had investors rushing to buy. Pfizer gained 4% to $34 on the news. Pfizer said if granted regulatory approval they will have a billion doses of the vaccine ready by 2021. Other Coronas took a dim view, Novavax and Moderna were sold down c.7%, Gilead u/c at $76.

Airlines & Cruises usually have a good day when virus news is good and both rose, United put on 7%, American 3% & SW added 2% with Royal Caribbean gaining 7% to $54. The payroll report confirmed businesses were hiring workers, 2.4m in June just as the Senate agreed to extend the Paycheck Protection Scheme through August, a double whammy for employees and employers. So far some $660bn has been approved and disbursed. In the rush to support civilians the Govt sent c.965,000 cheques to dead people and 76,000 prison inmates got an unexpected bonus. The IRS is investigating.

Early risers inc Fed Ex gaining from the stay at home ordering business. 4Q nos topped revs and profits, shares zoomed higher by 16% to $163.
Hertz stock outlook indicate a 100% sell for the short, medium & long-term. Short interest in Hertz is 60m/142m with an est sp range of $3.26 over the next 12 months so potential upside for holders. Now in chapter 11(shields Co from debt obligations) thousands of pis are at risk of losing their money if the Co is liquidated. Carl Ichan didnt Hang around did he?
Stock added 6c to $1.47. Ytd High $20, Low 50c.

At mid session techs were down, Banks, Boeing, Disney and Coke fizzing ahead. Tesla hit $1122 on chat that it could be headed into the S&P500 at next change and likely to break even at next earnings call.
Infection worries are the mrkts overriding concern as the rate is nearing 100,000 new cases a day and several States are revising reopenings. The Dow up and down all session fell 80 in the final minutes, the FAANGs (Flix up 7%, Amazing +4%, Fbk 5% & Google gained 2%) sent the Nsdq to an all'time closing high. Mrkts will be closed tomorrow.
DJ -78 (25735)
SP +15 (3116)
NS +96 (10,155)
R2 -14 (1427)
WTI $39.80
10y/tb 0•681%

Nos: Oil $42.13. Vix 29.
Gold $1776. Palm $660.
$1.248. €1.109. IDR 14350
MSCI(W) 527. FF +48. DF+63.
Morning all.

Only TK in the red this morning after the BOJ reported Manufacturers sentiment fell to the lowest in over 12 years as exports and tourism were crushed by the virus.
The -34 nos is arrived at by subtracting nos of companies saying business conditions are negative from those reporting they are positive.
China manufacturing activity improved in June showing signs of a gradual improvement as the PMI rose to 51.2 from May's 50.7, above 50 indicates activity improving. Exports are weak over 'second wave' concerns.
At 1:30 JST
TK -119
HK +125
SH +27
SHZ +16
SK +10
JSX -16
KLC1 +7

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 10,586,381
China 83,534 +3
Total deaths 513,925
China 4634

USA 2,727,853 (130,122)
UK 312,654 (43,730)*
Indonesia 56,385 (2876)
Malaysia 8639 (121)

* 155 deaths yesterday
* 689 infections
* 4606 cases per 1m pop
* 644 deaths per 1m pop
* 9•4m total tests
* 139k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 10,586,381
New cases 8625
Total deaths 513,925
New deaths 739
Recovered 5•8m (55%)

Dow slipped 120 at open as today closes the month, quarter and half year so some volatility is to be expected as investors trim or add to portfolios in the wake of virus infections claiming more victims. Whatever 3/4 main indices will close the HY down.
Norwegian Air currently undergoing a financial reconstruction has cancelled 97 Boeing aircraft including the Max 737 & 787 Dreamliner. In addition has filed a legal claim seeking the return of pre-delivery payments and compensation for Co losses relating to the grounding of MAX. Negotiations are on going with Boeing whose shares fell $10 to $184 in first dealings.

The Dow is off session lows of 25475 trading at 25667 wary of infections that have climbed in 35 states over the last two weeks. Infections rose 47,000 yesterday and fatalities now exceed 130,000. Participants await a congressional hearing with Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin who may update markets on the Govts response to the economic damage caused by corona-v. Blue chips were in demand, Visa, Msoft & FAANGs all gained. Airlines were unmoved losing cents rather than $s and Cruises like Airlines were little changed R.Carribean losing a $1. The cruise business has a very uncertain future while airlines having lost c.40% of traffic (freight has cont throughout the pandemic) will recover quicker.

Corona-v stocks were better, Gilead up $1 to $76, Moderna up $2 ($64) and Novavax continues its recent good run adding $2 to $86. Hertz ($1.43) and valued at $206m lingers in limboland awaiting Pierrepoints final call.
Crude futures took a tumble WTI dropping to $38 and gas prices fell below $1.50mmBtu on demand weakness. Chinas oil imports from S.Arabia hit a record high of 2.1m boe as total imports of oil hit 11.34 mbpd in May.
US retailers were mixed to flat, Target & Best Buy gaining, Kohls, Wallmart & Gap down c.25c each. Little interest in the sector unless having a strong on line offering. JC Penney (28c) limps on having filed for bankruptcy the Co nevertheless has a large real estate portfolio which might interest Amazon who could benefit from owning bricks & mortar to be used as collection points for their customers.

The Dow closed out the HY with a 200 jump in the last hour finishing c.18% up for Q2 it's best since'87 the S&P + 20% and the Nsdq added 31%, the only sector up on the year (12%) and 24% over 52wks. From the lows of the March shutdown its been a spectacular rise for equities backstopped by Fed Chair Powell who said he was committed to 'anchoring' the economy and would be extending lending facilities.
DJ +217 (25813)
SP +47 (3100)
NS + 185 (10,059)
R2 + 20 (1441)
WTI $39.78
10y/tb 0•678%

Nos: Oil $41.20. Vix 30.
Gold $1800. Palm $646.
$1.238. €1.102. IDR 14276
FF-2. DF-33.
Morning all.

It's not just REA ords having a bad time the 9% Prefs (61.25) are down 32% ytd but up c.8% from April though most of this over last 10 days. Today is the last day of the virus infected HY. One can only hope H2 will improve towards the back end if global infections are under control (no second wave) and demand for palm is steady.
It's already forecast to be down this year by c.5% and cpo looks vulnerable at $700 as recently as yesterday. Any slippage from current $660 will not be good news for REAs bottom line unless they can increase turnover dramatically and that's unlikely as no new plantings are taking place, that's a 2yr set'back to the program.
From memory they wanted to be fully planted (50,000ha) by 2025. That's a long gone shot I'm afraid.

Asia chose to ignore WHO Head Boy who said the worst of corona-v was to come as infections cont to explode globally. Nos out of China pointed to a rebound of foreign demand suggesting the global economy was better than thought and could be on an upswing from April/May lows. China Factory managers confirm their order books are improving.
At 1:30 JST
TK +390
HK +215
SH +17
SHZ +34
SK +35

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 10,409,518
China 85,531 +19
Total deaths 508,091
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 2,681,811 (128,873)
UK 311,965 (43,575)*
Indonesia 55,092 (2805)
Malaysia 8637 (121)

* 25 deaths yesterday
* 454 infections
* 4595 cases per 1m pop
* 642 deaths per 1m pop
* 9•3m total tests
* 137k tests per 1m pop
* 13•97% fatality rate.

Summary
Total cases 10,409,518
New cases 6612
Total deaths 508,091
New deaths 563
Recovered 5•67m (55%)

No commentary this morning as I wiped out my post by mistake. Normal service will be resumed tomorrow.
DJ +580 (25596)
SP +44 (3053)
NS +117 (9874)
R2 +42 (1421)
WTI $39.43
10y/tb 0•632%

The nos: Oil $41.63. Vix 32
Gold $1783. Palm $660.
$1.231. €1.095. IDR 14315
MSCI(W) 520. PI 6721.
FP 6536. FF+6. DF +95.
Morning all.

MPE falls 10% on buys and sells cancelling each other out, that tells you never, ever to rely on bargain dealing vols for the direction of travel ( more buys shares go up) You gotta be kidding........They rarely point you in the right direction here or anywhere else. Someone is making money, the jobbers obviously (longterm) so not you and me the slippery day trader might be turning a coin so for the holder its best watched for a fair entry point if your capable of doing such which I'm not because 58 is now 55 and then 52, then ad infinitum to zero. Ouch!! The perils of avd (averaging down) is for the foolhardy or those waverers relying on BB chat for advice. Given Brokers want pis like the plague and are constantly engaged, (save your 2p coins) when did you last speak to El Toro? Case in point I know of an investor with £K000,000s invested who gets no invstr info whatsoever and does not want any, by that I mean where the hell did they put my dividend?I kid you not. Woodford blow back only just starting among pis.It's always made sense to me to buy $ bills for 50 cents if the price tags are correct and you have to take a lot on trust for sure. Fortunately as far as REA is concerned and for you dear investor is it buying $ bills for fag end prices or millionth ounces of Gold? I think we know the answer to that. So, all you gotta do is pick up the soggy stub, put it into your pocket for safekeeping and in time a few puffs later it might turn into a B&H King size in one of those iconic Red Tins worth a lot more than 56p a bloody smoke.

Anglo and MPE have fallen this morning, Anglo on the trading update which was par for the course and MPE a combi of Anglo and the cpo crash. As ever it's a snapshot in time, tomorrow the sunny uplands and prices on the rise. Not good for hourly or even day followers of prices unless your a trader. I'm looking to buy sub 55 so have an interest atm.
I shan't be biting my nails in anticipation.....

$62 crash in cpo goes unnoticed by the mrkt for reasons I'm unable to fathom. I'm guessing it's a tech issue....didnt impact KLPI one iota which rose 1% to 6726.... & London palm prices are little changed. Go figure is the best I can come up with...

Tokyo led the fallers this morning as the Nikkei dropped 2% (477) on US virus increases and Walls poor performance on Fri. Australia rarely gets a mention reported 75 new cases yesterday, to date (7770 cases/104 deaths)
That was unexpected.
All Asian bourses were down c.0.5% to 2% investors clearly worried about a 'second wave' damaging an economy now being compared to the Great Depression of the 1930s.

However, showing signs of a recovery China reported profits of major industrials were up 6%($84.3bn) from the 4% fall in April. The news outweighed by the virus gloom, though falls on the SHCOMP were small. HK fear more student protests as the 3 day meeting on China comes to an end today. Hong Kongs independence status as a financial centre is under threat from Beijing.
At 1:30 JST
TK -465
HK -390
SH -21
SHZ -10
SK -36

Nos: Oil $40.17. Vix 35.
Gold $1786. Palm $654.
$1.236. €1.100. IDR 14299
PI 6672. MSCI(W) 516.
FF -60. DF -48.
Morning all.