Member Info for JohnLewis79

Indonesia palm oil reserves will fall to their lowest level in 16 months by end of July mainly due to floods in major growing areas (Kalimantan & Sumatra) which disrupted palm fruit harvest and delivery to mills. One must also factor La Nina bringing wetter than expected weather in H2 which would also impact national output.

Reserves are forecast to fall 10% to 3mt and output 8% to 3.5mt as July is a low producing month. Output will increase in Sept. Lower supply from Indonesia may support benchmark prices which have risen 15% this month as buyers from India & China rebuild their stocks.

Domestic consumption in July to date is c.1.42mt boosted by B30 and exports are forecast to rise c.5% to 2.42mt.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 15,374,482
China 83,729 +22
Total deaths 630,214
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 4,100,875 (146,183)•
UK 296,377 (45,501)*
Indonesia 91,751 (4459)
Malaysia 8831 (123)

• 72,306 new cases
• 1230 deaths

* 189 deaths yesterday
* 560 infections
* 4364 cases per 1m pop
* 670 deaths per 1m pop
* 13•8m total tests
* 203k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 15,374,482
New cases 9068
Total deaths 630,214
New deaths 868
Recovered 9•3m (60%)

A subdued start to trading early on Wed going by recent 'kick offs' the 30 putting on 60. Following news that Pfizer had reached an agreement with the Govt to produce 600m doses of vaccine for the sum of $1.95bn if given FDA approval. This proved a non starter for Wall St scribes used to 200+/- starts to headline their daily copy.

In the 'pharmasphere' it typically takes around 10 years for a new vaccine to pass through all the R&D stages before the public are prescribed. However the urgency due to the pandemic has resulted in the mobilization of global resources never seen before to combat the virus. This has galvanised US pharmas to be the first to produce a vaccine as a defence against covid-19. Other Coronas were little changed this morning except Pfizer up 4% ($38) with Big Mac, IBM, Intel & Visa all gaining ground.
At lunch the Dow was up 60 but oils & Banks were lagging the index, Boeing surprise, surprise mid table. Hertz was up 15% that's only 21c as punters cont to chance their arms in this gone tomorrow stock the other recent pis fave Luckin was unmoved.

Airlines and Cruises were static along with Hotels & Leisure as investors tired of the daily up/down moves based solely on virus news. As London closed down 63 led by Big Oil (inventory news) the Dow was ahead 85 the techs 22 on a low vol day of 223m traded. After hours Tesla reported 2Q nos, profits of $104m ($2.18 eps) were way, way ahead of forecasts and was the 4th straight Q profit, shares rose $65 to $1657. Further gains will very much depend on Chinas demand for electric cars and if any US consumer has any money to spend on cars in 2021. Tesla could be admitted to the SP 500 club.
Msoft fell 5% to $207 after hours having beaten 4Q forecasts, revenues rose 13% and eps 6%. Msoft stock is up 34% ytd.

The Dow added 160 late on to close above 27,000. Trumps order to the Chinese to close their Houston Embassy had no impact on investors.
DJ +165 (27,006)
SP +19 (3276)
NS +26 (10,706)
R2 +3 (1490)
WTI $41.84
10y/tb 0•597%

Nos: Oil $44.38. Vix 24.
Gold $1866. Palm $730.
$ 1.273. € 1.100. IDR 14606.
MSCI(W) 557. FF -1. DF -12.
Morning all.

Not a ball busting days volumes so far... a 32 at 60, 2 at 60 & 1465 at 60.90 all sells, what else? I'm thinking of reducing my YE sp to sub 70 which looks conservative while Booooris is in charge. I'm sure there is a correlation, if not I'll dream one up. Whatever as any reader here knows owning REA is akin to be burned at the stake at best, or cast into the wilderness of sludgy moves. A good temperature, as well as temperament is required here for if you can't bear the slings and arrows of indifference best move on to pastures new. I have enjoyed a pleasant lunch time tipple which I must say was rather spoiled by my host trying to apply for a new passport for a customer which took over 2 hours to complete. Has the World gone mad?

Nice on bunks...

On my thing one has F-all vol +
F-all buyers = F-all full stop. Good to see G moving again. Hope this recent rise translates into a bit more than a hot air mrkt spike. Any news of H? I dont move around much stuck on my jungle plantation.

Did it on the Mogadishu cloud whattcha'm'call thingy.....wont show up on lse! Oh dear 740 still outta the money....you have time so who knows? Need demand to be much stronger from China, India seems to be slowing I dont see prices much above $800 this year. Hope I'm wrong!

Mpe turned down a 740 pps bid from KLK in 2016 which materially undervalued the Company according to many pis.
The average cpo price through 2016 was c.$736.
Then:-
2017 $751
2018 $639
2019 $575
2020 $575(e)

Mpe was trading c.420p late 2016 (pre bid) then c.710 average thru to late 2019 when hit by the virus etc., now at a distressed 530.
Betcha MPE holders would snatch a 740 bid right now as KLK would be unlikely to offer such a premium next time round as they have realised buybacks do little for share price appreciation and the lower the sp the better for them. Granted eps increase but whose bovvered about that?
(Think I might buy 1 MPE share).

Australia is the focus point this morning with hundreds of new cases (466) reported and Melbourne in lockdown mode. The ASX200 off 91. Shanghai mrkts cont upwards with TK, HK & SK marginally lower.
At 2:15 JST
TK -137
HK -45
SH +42
SHZ +37
SK -5
JSX +14
ASX200 -86

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 15,096,315
China 83,707 +14
Total deaths 619,520
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 4,028,569 (144,953)•
UK 295,817 (45,422)*
Indonesia 89,869 (4320)
Malaysia 8815 (123)

• 67,140 new cases
• 1119 deaths

* 110 deaths yesterday
* 445 infections
* 4356 cases per 1m pop
* 669 deaths per 1m pop
* 13•6m total tests
* 200k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 15,096,315
New cases 11,352
Total deaths 619,520
New deaths 1026
Recovered 9•1m (61%)

Energy, drinks & IBM all early gainers boosted the Top 30 over 300 by 10:00 and the Nsdq Comp up 100 which soon fell back on FAANGs getting hit by sellers. Tesla ignored several downgrades only 8/36 sector analysts have a 'buy' on the stock. Shares down $18 to $1625
on nervousness ahead of nos on Wed.

Mrkts are looking to the Fed for rnd 3 of the Virus Security Act to kick in $2tn of support for the economy. Mrkts generally rise after disbursements by the Fed. Beach stocks were better on AZN news of good results out of Oxford leading to hopes of an effective treatment coming soon. Moderna fell on the Oxford news to $81. Gilead lost a $ to $77 but Novavax gained $4 to $147. It's been a very good month for Novavax up from $66 one month ago. Airlines were hardly moving SW up just 60c and United 39c better ($33.46) after 2Q nos slumped 87% to a $1.6bn loss. Cruises still stuck in dry Dock undergoing repairs.
Companies reporting were led by Coca Cola whose organic sales slumped 26% the Co saying 2Q nos will be severely impacted, shares up 3% to $48. Lockheed Martin (Aerospace) beat 2Q forecasts through contract wins boosting its order book, shares rose 2% to $373. Highlights today will be Msoft & Tesla.

As London closed up 8 the Dow briefly crossed 27,000 the techs near low of the day down 37. Gains were steadily eroded with a sudden 200 slump from 3:00pm as reports surfaced that virus cases could be hugely understated due to inaccurate systems, delays & foul ups.
At close:
DJ +160 (26840)
SP +5 (3257)
NS -87 (10,680)
R2 +20 (1488)
WTI $41.80
10y/tb 0•606%

Nos: Oil $44.14. Vix 25.
Gold $1859. Palm $732.
$1 272. €1.105. IDR 14649
MSCI(W) 556. FF-1. DF+115.
Morning all.

FAANGs and the 'Big 5' are rarely out of the financial headlines these days. So below are some figs for the Big 5 which in total revenues ($900bn) exceeds the GDP of S.Arabia.
Big tech has eclipsed Big Oil by some margin and are now the most valuable publicly traded companies in the World.

2019
1 Amazon $281bn (72% cloud & e-commerce.
2 Apple $260bn (55% IPhone)
3 Alphabet $162bn (70% adverts & Google)
4 Msoft $126bn (51% cloud/office (16% windows)
5 Fbk $71bn (99% advertising)

In terms of 2019 net income.

1 Apple $55.2bn
2 Msoft $39.2bn
3 Alphabet $34.3bn
4 Fbk $18.5bn
5 Amazon $11.6bn

In terns of 2019 Mrkt Cap.

1 Apple $1.58tn
2 Msoft $1.56tn
3 Amazon $1.44tn
4 Alphabet $1.02tn
5 Fbk $665bn

July Cpo nos have been on the up'n up and to date averages $682. Barring 'unforeseen' events will be c.$175 better than July'19 and likely cont in that vein to YE.

It wasn't until Dec'19 that cpo took off into the $800s (Jan'20 averaged $810) then fell back to $573 (6th May) during the covid-19 pandemic. The price has recovered well since then, c.$140
better so an excellent start to H2
but a long way short of the 10yr historic av (from memory) of $800.

For REA to make the list the sp would have to be 77 which is a stretch atm and my 'guesstimate' for the years close. The other big 2 as below.

445 Mpe (301m)
521 Anglo (186m)

Ftse All Share Rankings as at 10/7/20.

1 AZN (111.6bn)
2 RDSA+B (95.2bn)
3 GSK (79.6bn)
4 HSBC (76.9bn)
5 BAT (66bn)
***
671 Wentworth Res (34m)

Covid-19
04:30
GMT

Total cases 14,854,330
China 83,693 +11
Total deaths 613,213
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 3,961,429 (143,834)•
UK 295,372 (45,312)*
Indonesia 88,214 (4239)
Malaysia 8800 (123)

• 62,879 new infections
• 545 deaths
• 3.6% fatality rate

* 12 deaths yesterday
* 580 infections
* 4350 cases per 1m pop
* 667 deaths per 1m pop
* 13•5m total tests
* 198k tests per 1m pop
* 15.3% fatality rate.

Summary
Total cases 14,854,330
New cases 8646
Total deaths 613,213
New deaths 371
Recovered 8•9m (60%)

Among the 2,4,6,8 trades in REA yesterday there were a few more normal sizes which didnt show up on lse. All at 63.80 (one at $63.97) for 7500, 9404, 5498 & 5471.
That averaged out at 1083 shares a deal (27). Didnt budge the sp (60 bid). Cpo put on $5 at $712. Other London palms were flat in no interest trading on lse closes.

US mrkts opened lower with no guidance from the East or Europe. US investors more worried about the rising infections than current 'factored-in' Corporate results.
Over the coming days Corporate earnings are coming thick and fast around 500 are slated to report Q2 nos (125 from the S&P500).

The Dow fell 166 from the off, investors worried about the sky high valuations of techies. Many are considering now could be the time to buy 'beat down' cyclicals and dump technology as the Nsdq Comp continues to defy the 'sell now', 'overvalued', 'get out' urging of analysts, powering up to 10620 in early morning trading on back of Msoft up $4 ($207), Apple adding $3 ($388), IBM, Cisco & Intel all c.2% better. Jim Cramer of "squawk box" fame said 'the moves on techs were truly insane'. Amazing added $235 (8%) to $3197 on a boost from Goldman and IBM 2Q nos beat forecasts gaining 5% ($132) after hours.
Officials from Moderna, Merck and Pfizer are to update Congress on the inoculation progress tomorrow. Moderna fell 13% ($83) on a sell advice from JPMC.

Airlines were lower around 2%-3% with SW announcing 16,000 staff have agreed to early retirement. Cruises, Hotels & Leisure off a similar amount. Crude was u/c on news that Chevron was buying Noble Energy for $5bn in an all share deal that included $13bn of debt. On the big board techs led the gainers, Boeing down to $174 among the losers. Hertz remained flat but Luckin Coffee fell 14% to $2.33 as weary invstrs cut positions.

The Dow climbed off a 26504 early low trading in a narrow 150 band in pm trading added 9 at close. The Nsdq 100 just 116 off all'time high (10,825).
DJ +9 (26681)
SP +27 (3252)
NS +264 (10,767)
R2 -5 (1468)
WTI $ 41.01
10y/tb 0•611%

Nos: Oil $43.30. Vix 24.
Gold $1818. Palm $712.
$ 1.267.€1.106. IDR 14789
FF +2. DF +48.
Morning all.

The 50,000 sell merchant must near tapped out now.

Covid-19
07:00
GMT

Total cases 14,646,894
China 83,682 +22
Total deaths 608,987
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 3,898,550 (143,289)
UK 294,792 (45,300)*
Indonesia 86,521 (4143)
Malaysia 8779 (123)

* 27 deaths yesterday
* 726 new cases
* 4341 cases per 1m pop
* 667 deaths per 1m pop
* 13•3m total tests
* 196k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 14,646,894
New cases 12,162
Total deaths 608,987
New deaths 428
Recovered 8•8m (60%)