Member Info for JohnLewis79

Chinas state run Daily called Msofts acquisition of TikTok as 'theft' and suggested China would retaliate we're it to go ahead. De'tente as far away as ever between China & US.
Elsewhere, in Washington Democrats & Republicans failed to agree on the next stimulus package. Trump will be seeking other methods to get cash to strapped businesses and consumers. Economic news saw factory orders rise 6% in June (7% in May) pointing to a recovery being underway.

In early dealings the 500 was off 7 the techs 36 in lackluster trading. Disney are set to report after the close and are thought to have lost $1bn in Q3 due to closing of theme parks & reduced box office takings. Saving grace could be Disney+ subscribers of 54•5m who may soften the blow somewhat in what is best described as 'helter skelter'
earnings. Ford Motor announced its CEO was retiring and BP slashed its dividend to just 5c (10c).

The mrkt turned upwards from mid'day as buyers of oils, Dow inc & UH boosted the 30 over 120. Techs mixed, Msoft down $3 to $213, Apple up $3 ($439) & Amazing added $27 ($3139) the Nsdq 100 an intraday record. Nike, Walgreen, JPMC & Amex all lower. Airlines were in demand on recovery hopes, Spirit up 9% took off and Cruises caught bottom fishers rising 4% across the big 3. Corona-vs were subdued but Novavax jumped $13 ($171) after hours on positive results from its first human trials. Moderna & Gilead little moved. Varian subject of a bid ($177) from Siemens was u/c at $174 and Kodak a star performer of late is under investigation by the SEC, shares fell $4 to $14 on the session.

Gold up 30% this year it's best year since 1979 traded as high as $2027 as investors rushed to buy as a hedge against stretched equities but WTI down 32% is having it's worst year since 2014.
At close:
DJ +164 (26828)
SP +12 (3307)
NS +38 (10941)
R2 +10 (1517)
WTI $41.66
10y/tb 0•490%

Nos: Oil $44.40. Vix 23.74
Gold $ 2033. Palm $739.
$1.308. €1.107. IDR 14582
MSCI(W) 559. FF+17. DF +33.
Morning all.

Just in case you wondered your chances of dying from corona-v is currently 1 in just under 1500. Not bad odds if your a statistician or gambler.

A friend of mine who travels regularly from South London across the City to whichever Station serves the Essex coast said it's "a ghost town, no shops opened, can't buy a stale sandwich, no commuters the place is empty" I'm assuming he's talking about London Bridge Station. His train with 8 coaches had 8 people on it and this used to be a busy off peak service to Maldon and the coast.

This Govt has crucified our economy, put millions out of work and with no prospect of work ever again by hugely over reacting to a virus which has killed 46,210 out of a pop of 67m+. Their intentions were good but the data (out of China) was completely ignored as Italy initially panicked leading to other European countries to follow the 'close down everything that moves' strategy and bankcrupt your country in the process.
Guess nobody thought of that side effect.

The cold hard figures hardly support such drastic methods. I walk past perhaps 300 shops on my way to the only place with a bit of conviviality my local and the shops are deserted. I'm required to wear a mask even if the shop is empty, busy supermarkets like Iceland are empty, Guarda on the Doors, confrontational and menacing to lots of old people and yet daily the TV wafflers say it's for our benefit as another wave is coming, lockdown, stay in doors, wear masks avoid others. I'm aghast at the defeatist attitude by our elected leaders who should have displayed some Churchillian spirit by insisting people return to work. Hell did not London function when being bombed in 1944?

The overreaction has been staggering, confining the over 70s to house arrest for instance and now talk of the 50s. The City is empty, the High St gone, companies going to the wall, dividends and pensions (forget them) under threat, tourism totalled. The damage in just 4 months has been unimaginable all for the lack of a leader who took the easy option swallowing the 'science' hook line and sinker.

I'll remind you yesterday there were 9 fatalities and 928 new infections the vast majority of which will shrug off feeling unwell in a week or so. As the virus slowly dies out restrictive measures are being piled upon us in ever greater measures with fines and the like. Has it been worth it?
Take a look around your local area and what do you see? I see boarded up shops with few people on the street for fear of being the next person out of 68m to catch an infection despite being masked and visored. God help this Country.

I'm all in favour of widening the mrkt for more small private investors but 1,2,3, trades c'mon! Perhaps a minimum of £100 should be the benchmark? Hell my first ever trade a hundred years ago was £10 pre decimal.

Whatever is going on with these Jumble Sales lots is a nuisance more than anything else. If they convey a meaning or are some jobber code I dont know but either way nobody is taking any notice, cept me to have a moan.

With your millions, no doubt abaht'it

Man U is the most valuable publically traded football club in the world (sorry Palace). Originally IPO'd in London (falling short of expectations) soon decamped to the US raising more than double the money sought (Soros 2%) and is currently worth c.€1.8bn followed by Juventus €1.2bn and Borussia Dortmund €550m. Football counters tend to be a lot less liquid than other leisure stocks as fans tend to hold forever and rarely trade. For instance MU daily vol is just c.39k shares on the NYSE, cripes even worse than REA.
Money pours in through sponsorship, shirt & ticket sales, licensing, broadcasting & World Cups. Barcelona tops this league with €840m then Real M & MU €712m.

TV was the license that 'printed money' not anymore. Football has long become the big money earners regardless of the up'n downs of the Clubs share prices.
FIFA pulled in €5,800m (2015-18) and the top 5 clubs rake in €3.45bn annually (matchday, broadcast, sponsors).
Football reinvents itself almost on a yearly basis take the phenomenal success of the Womens World Cup the most watched tournament in history with 1.12bn viewers with support like that football is only going one way. Viewership and fandom the cement binding the whole money making machine together.

All good in Asia this morning after US & Global manufacturing data, declining infections and tech gains gave mrkts an early boost. Across the region equities were stronger (SHZ lower on profit taking) after big rises ytd.
At 1:30 pm JST
TK +320
HK +202
SH +3
SHZ -11
SK +20
JSX +57
ASX200 +108

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 18,444,642
China 84,644 +36
Total deaths 697,189
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 4,862,174 (158,929)•
UK 305,623 (46210)*
Indonesia 113,134 (5302)
Malaysia 9001 (125)

• 48,527 infections
• 564 deaths

* 928 infections
* 9 deaths
* 4500 cases per 1m pop
* 680 deaths per 1m pop
* 16•7m total tests
* 246k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 18,444,642
New cases 9210
Total deaths 697,189
New deaths 366
Recovered 11•7m (64%)

Techs led US mrkts higher at the bell as has been the case most of the year, Msoft and Apple to the fore this morning. In Msofts case Trump has dropped his objection to them buying TikToks US & Canada businesses. In an aside he tweeted "if Biden wins the election, the Nsdq, jobs, your savings and 401(k)s would all come crashing down." This didnt stop runaway techs now a mrkt in itself which many consider to be unhealthy (like having a bet on a one horse race) continues to fill invstrs pockets with easy money. Stop this horse I wanna get off.....
Reports out of Europe and China on improving manufacturing activity buoyed sentiment the Dow up 200+ on 276m traded on the NYSE by mid'day, the Nsdq 140. Perhaps Armageddon has been averted, US infections fell 6% yesterday as many States reported a drop in cases the first time since records began.

Some 66% of the SP500 have reported Q2 nos and 84% have beaten the Streets expectations. Healthcare were on buy lists after Siemens made an $16.4bn offer at $177 for Varian up 21% to $174. Corona-vs were in demand Nova jumping 9%, Moderna 4% & Gilead 3% though WHO head honcho dampened expectations of a an imminent cure for the virus. He could be right as none has been found for the HIV virus surfacing in 1981 and that was forever ago.

Planes, trains & autos were running on empty, Delta, United, Anerican off 2% but Southwest taxing up 3% is seen as the most likely survivor longterm thanx to Herb Kellers astute and innovative management in the early days. Co founder of the airline he died in 2019.
Cruises slumped 5% as news spread of an outbreak of the virus on the Roald Amundsen liner docked in Tromso, 36 crew and 5 passengers have become infected.

Topping the big board were Msoft up $12, Apple up $11 and a host of the usual, Boeing, Merck & Intel. Going down Cat, Coca C & Disney. Amazon off $52, Netflix up $10 and Tesla gained $54 to $1485 were other standouts.
At close:
DJ +236 (26,664)
SP +23 (3295)
NS + 158 (10,903)
R2 +26 (1507)
WTI $41
10Y/TB 0•561%

Nos: Oil $43.85. Vix 24.
Gold $1993. Palm $742.
$1.308. €1.112. IDR14680.
MSCI(W) 552. FF -21. DF +15.
Morning all.

All Londons palm counters are down on a ytd basis as is cpo. Nos as of wk 31 close.

Anglo 574 - 460
DKL 3.25 - 2.25
Epa 2.50 - 0.55
MPE 716 - 605
Rea 170 - 57

Cpo $799 - $741
Cpko $ 755 - $761

Brent $66 - $43
WTI $51- $40

Plans by the Indonesian Govt for B40 biofuel is back on track for implementation by July 2021. Crude oil prices have begun to recover narrowing the gap between gasoline and palm biofuel.
B40 will be produced using a different formulation containing 30% (FAME) & 10% green diesel. This will be better because it contains a higher cetane number promising lower emissions with similar performance.
The end game is B100% with no need to import expensive energy which could be over $60 by completion of the B program.

A mixed picture in Asia this morning equities in China and Tokyo are ahead, HK, Jakarta and Seoul all in the red.
Stocks in Shanghai are up following the strong performance from the manufacturing sector where activity climbed for the 3rd consecutive month and at its highest level in 9 years. Chinese mrkts are the best performers ytd, SHCOMP Up 10% the SHZ Up 34%. Local demand is powering mrkts as overseas demand remain subdued due to the ongoing trade war and slow recovery in the US.

The closing of all places of entertainment in Japan after 10:00pm due to virus cases spiking in urban areas surrounding Tokyo had no impact on mrkts. Virus cases in the Phillipines passed 100,000 and Melbourne is in lockdown mode from 8:00pm to 5:00am the Premier of Victoria proclaimed it a 'state of disaster'. HSBC reported a 65% slump in H1 profits and more lay offs taking the Hang Seng 230 lower.

At 1:00pm JST
TK +446
HK -233
SH +36
SHZ +41
SK -3
JSX -128
ASX200 -10

Nos: Oil $43.28. Vix 24.
Gold $1992. Palm $742.
$1.309. €1.112. IDR 14664
MSCI(W) 552. FF -10. DF -90.
Morning all

Covid-19
04:00
GMT

Total cases 18,234,936
China 84,428 +43
Total deaths 692,794
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 4,813,647 (158,365)•
UK 304,695 (46,201)*
Indonesia 111,455 (5236)
Malaysia 8999 (125)

• 49,329 infections
• 467 deaths

* 743 infections
* 82 deaths
* 4486 cases per 1m pop
* 680 deaths per 1m pop
* 16•5m total tests
• 243k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 18,234,936
New cases 8336
Total deaths 692,794
New deaths 374
Recovered 11•5m (63%)

Here's the deal on Wall St v Main St and why their is such a huge variance between the two. After all should not Wall be feeling the pain of Main during covid-19?

Consumer sentiment as you'd expect is bullish in periods of economic growth and bearish during downturns/recessions when noone is spending.
This consumer behaviour has been measured by the University of Michigans CS Index started way back in the 60s and was designed to move in tandem with the SP500 (don't ask).
It posed these simple questions (among others).
• are you better or worse off than 1 year ago?
• will you be better/worse off one year ahead?
• will business conditions be good, bad or other?
• is it a good time to make major purchases, houses, cars etc?
The scores are aggregated to arrive at an index value relative to the original base period value (don't ask).

The SP500 is a mrkt cap weighted index and in previous cycles has run in parallel with the CSI but since covid-19 there has been a dramatic shift. One reason is the huge weighting of techs which account for over 25% of the 500s value and therefore impacts disproportionately relative to others like Health, Utilities and Energy. This year techs have been flying cyclicals diving which has skewed the nos giving a false impression, check out the High St now resembling Dodge City shop fronts.

The Fed have also played their part, helicoptering money & buying Bonds which has shielded Companies from poor earnings and allowing them to borrow their way out of trouble, ask airline CEOs. Not so the CS1 which is not showing signs of recovery and as the mrkt storms ahead the jobless face cuts to their benefits and a very uncertain future. No doubt there are other factors at play, (global trade) but these are likely wrapped up in the SP500 anyway.

Covid-19
03:00
GMT

Total cases 18,011,854
China 84,385 +49
Total deaths 688,683
China 4634

Countries 213
USA 4,764,318 (157,898)•
UK 303,952 (46,193)*
Indonesia 109,936 (5193)
Malaysia 8985 (125)

• 58 429 infections
• 1151 deaths
• 14,386 cases per 1m pop
• 477 deaths per 1m pop

* 771 infections
* 74 deaths
* 4475 cases per 1m pop
* 680 deaths per 1m pop
* 16•3m total tests
* 240k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 18,011,854
New cases 11,688
Total deaths 688,683
New deaths 871
Recovered 11•3m (63%)

Got beat last race of day. Finished T2.

With my returns to a level stake way above average inc the no bets yesterday I shall not be investing today as it will surely be the end of my run. Here's the nos I have entered for today's last days racing.
4
3
2
19
2
3
9

Well you guessed it I had my best day of the meet yesterday! Always the way when no monies are on, 4 winners, 3 seconds and a 3rd.....ffs! One consolation that made me the leader on total
points scored in the pub comp (33 entries /£660/4 places). I have 184 then 180, 178 & 176 the rest out with the washing. Mus'nt moan but bloody hell!

Covid-19
04:00
GMT
Total cases 17,757,513
China 84,337 +45
Total deaths 682,998
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 4,705,889 (156,747)•
UK 303,181 (46119)*
Indonesia 108,376 (5131)
Malaysia 8976 (125)

• 70,904 cases
• 1462 deaths

* 120 deaths
* 880 infections
* 4464 cases per 1m pop
* 679 deaths per 1m pop
* 16m total tests
* 236k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 17,757,513
New cases 11,840
Total deaths 682,998
New deaths 801
Recovered 11•2m (62%)

Big techs boosted the Big Board with the Comp ending up 157 (10745) and the 30 gaining 113. This after an early tumble to 26013 on Chevrons $8.3bn 2Q losses. By the close mrkts were up for the 4th straight week. A, A & Fbk rose after 2Q earnings beats. Apple more of which later hit an all'time high ($425), Amazing put on $113 to ($3164) on a 40% sales surge but Alphabet fell $50 ($1488) as ad revs declined. Tesla cont to please shorters off $57 to $1431 after recent $1643 high.

Apple announced a 4-1 stock split to make the stock more marketable (the Jury is out on the effectiveness of splits) when one can fractionally trade these days. Whatever this will have no impact on the Co value.
Simply you will have 4x as many at 25% of their prev value. Apple are splitters supreme having done 2-1s in 1987, 2000, 2005 and a big 7-1 in 2014. If you were lucky enough to have bght Apple pre '87 your 1 share would now be 224. Apple pulled in $59.7bn in 2Q revs easily beating forecasts as hardware and services forged ahead.

DJ +114 (26428)
SP +25 (3271)
NS + 157 (10745)
R2 -15 (1480)
WTI $40.44
10y/tb 0•535%

Gold $ 1994
Palm $735
Silver $24.13
Brent $43.64