Member Info for JohnLewis79

US close:
DJ +47 (27,740)
SP +11 (3386)
NS +118 (11,265)•
R2 -8 (1564)
WTI $42.87
10y/tb 0.656%

• Apple $476 (R)

Nos: Oil $45.03. Vix 23.
Gold $1956. Palm $753.
$1.321. €1.114. IDR 14758.
MSCI(W)569. FF +5. DF +68.
Morning all.

Covid-19
04:00
GMT

Total cases 22,860,184
China 84,917 +22
Total deaths 797,105
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 5,746,272 (177,424)•
UK 322,280 (41,403)*
Indonesia 147,211 (6418)
Malaysia 9240 (125)

• 45,341 infections
• 1087 deaths

* 1182 infections
* 6 deaths
* 4744 cases per 1m pop
* 609 deaths per 1m pop
* 15•2m total tests
* 223k tests per 1m pop
* 12•8% fatality rate

Summary
Total cases 22,860,184
New cases 9897
Total deaths 797,105
New deaths 727
Recovered 15•5m (68%)

Have to say Palmers do little on a day to day basis, 'spech' REA which sees more sellers than buyers. No surprise there given better cpo prices the one is divorced from the other, you choose which is which?
Epa better known as your unfriendly PAL (another one time palm winner) in West Africa fell on a gun to shareholders heads rescue mission, getting diluted via a placing of 100,000,000 shares at umpence to raise £400k. For that kind of money I would have loaned them the money...NOT! WGAF anymore with c.500,000,000 outstanding the shares have been placed in the Help Wanted ads of the 'Sun'.

******

Latest on the bloody virus. My local single decker bus (New Cross- Streatham) capacity c. 40 is now restricting passengers to 12 only! I was lucky to get on. Why should I be surprised when the Govt want to bankcrupt London's Bus Service? Hell, a couple of years from now who will need a Bus let alone a service?

******

Bitcoin after a dodgy start is slowly becoming more acceptable as an alternative currency to Gold, REA, etc...can't for the life of me get involved in mining bitcoins, even if I knew how. A bitcoin monger who drinks in my local is a big fan. He wont remember touting me bitcoin at $17,000+. I bloody do. Whaats...it now c.11,800? Better than REA for sure.....I'm off to get my pick and shovel. Where do I start? I know I'll try my luck in them Welsh Valleys among the iron ore, silt, gold and destitute ex palm oil Estate Managers.

US close:

DJ -85 (27 693)
SP -15 (3375)
NS -64 (11,146)*
R2 +2 (1572)
WTI $42.71
10y/tb 0• 661%

* Apple ($467) hits $2tn mrkt cap becomes most valuable global company.

Nos: Oil $44.98. Vix 22.
Gold $ 1953. Palm $753.
$1.308. €1.105. IDR 14769.
MSCI(W) 572. FF-75. DF-138.
Morning all.

Next year the price of biofuel is expected to be broadly similar to slightly higher than 2020. The gap between bio and fossil is filled by levies currently $55 on palm oil exports. The Govt has pledged R 2.78tn assistance for the programme and is considering raising the levy to support the B40 mix due to be in the pumps by July 2021. Look for $5 raise.

Covid-19
06:00
GMT

Total cases 22,581,537
China 84,895 +7
Total deaths 791,012
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 5,700,931 (176,337)•
UK 321,098 (41,397)*
Indonesia 144,945 (6346)
Malaysia 9235 (125)

• 44957 Infections
• 1263 deaths

* 802 infections
* 16 deaths
* 4727 cases per 1m pop
* 609 deaths per 1m pop
* 15m total tests
* 221k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 22,581,537
New cases 12,247
Total deaths 791,012
New deaths 817
Recovered 15•3m (68%)

Well that makes a change a 13,967 sell at 59.50 (good move) but not a short sell methinks. Doubt we will have any interest this afternoon as we slog though the Summer heatwave weeks.
He'll....whose bothered about a tin pot palm oil Co in a far off land with prospects when you can pile into the latest tech wonder stock and make a few quid before you have finished your cornflakes and a cuppa cha?

I heard today from a reliable source that 2 individuals made £80k & £40k punting an oil stock. Do I believe it? DIF. I think the story gathered moss along the way to W.Norwood. Ring me if you know different. Hell I'm struggling to make a round of drinks (not here nobody makes money here) in a paper exercise, fictional couple of Gold stocks and a corona-v one and I ain't in the plus column open to close yet! Anybody who tells you they are making money in the London mkts most likely doesn't even believe it himself.

Congrats if your an exception to a very long rule!

Can this be possible the US mrkt values Apple, Amazon & Msoft higher than the total ftse 100? Apparently so! Even if not those 3 the value of the FAANGs most certainly does, damn near double plus around $4 trn. Check the ytd's.

Apple +57%
Amaz +79%
Google up 17%
FBK up 28%
Flix up 52%
***
Msoft up 34%

Take the SP500 up 52% from virus low, the 100 up 22%. Ytd the 500 +5% the 100 off 19%. No wonder US stock values are off the scales!

Bumbling along the bottom of the share price graph REA are now back to prices last seen in 1999-2000. A swift recovery took place between 2002 & 2008 when the sp advanced to c.700. A big drop in 2009 took the sp to c.300 followed by a sustained rise to c.780 by 2011. Since then it's been one way traffic, down the slippery slope to c.58.

As I see it the question is will we see a dramatic bounce in the shares a la 2009 and 2011? It's happened before, twice, so why not 3rd time lucky? Cpo is looking better, estate costs are being cratered, REA might be headed to near break even and demand has held up pretty well considering the last 8 months. The rumours of the death of palm oil have been exaggerated much to the 'Greens' disappointment.

Is another big jump possible? It could just happen as long as global trade un'freezes in 2021/2, we get a US President not hell bent on protectionism (take your tanks off the White House lawn) and a corona-v vaccine is found. Mrkts think the future is bright so why shouldn't we?
I'll leave that question for others to answer!

US close:

DJ -66 (27,778)
SP +8 (3390)
NS +81 (11,211) R
R2 -16 (1570)
WTI 42.71
10y/tb 0•662%

Nos: Oil $45.11. Vix 22.5.
Gold $ 2001. Palm $761.
$1.324. €1.109. IDR 14,779.
FF +12. DF +25.
Morning all.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 22,306,538
China 84,888 +17
Total deaths 784,353
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 5,655,974 (175,074)•
UK 320,286 (41,381)*
Indonesia 143,043 (6277)
Malaysia 9219 (125)

• 43,947 infections
• 1358 deaths
• 2•7% fatality rate

* 1089 infections
* 12 deaths
* 4715 cases per 1m pop
* 609 deaths per 1m pop
* 14•8m total tests
* 218k tests per 1m pop
* 13.9% fatality rate

Summary
Total cases 22,306,538
New cases 9188
Total deaths 784,353**
New deaths 837
Recovered 15,047,779 (68) Global 3.5% fatality rate

Shock, Horror, things are looking up, not the sp but average trades hit 66 up 10 from yesterday. Will the 100 be hit this week? I note the Prefs have hit almost rock bottom, c.5 off historic lows. No surprise there given the debt tonnage.

I dont know what drum beat the Prefs run to but the graph is a mirror image of the ords, neither a pretty picture. Mind you up'end the graphs and it's much better looking.

More job losses announced, M&S lay off 950 head office and management jobs and a further 10,000 are expected to go as John Lewis, Boots & Rolls Royce slim down their workforces.
As ever winners and losers but retail staff will find it almost impossible to transfer to the post covid-19 economy of high tech which as we know will find themselves undercut by cheaper Far Eastern operators in next to no time if not already.

Whatever happened to the algorithm of putting led in the pencils of Company boards and our discredited PM? The useless Health Secretary long on waffle short on action berates the Public with more regulations. Who is pulling his leg? Plainly he has not an original thought in his head.

I travelled on a local bus (7 stops) serving Brixton (Tube St) and Victoria with just 8 people aboard, 4 no masks & 4 masked, 2 others boarded prior to my stop. Pre the lockdown this was a very very busy service. Those not at home watching Neighbours re-runs are too terrified to get on a Bus, aka death coffins, such has been the scare tactics of the Govt who have bankrupted London Transport.
Charity shops along my High St have a masked little old ladies barring you entering without a mask! Unclean, unclean! I give up, I really do and now we hear pubs might have to close again!

Anyone remember that Sun front page headline " will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights" I do and another lockdown will finish the UK as an economic force. We shall be licking the envelopes of China and others for years to come and do you know the powers that be have no idea that this is about to happen.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 22,049,457
China 84,871 +22
Total deaths 777,440
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 5,612,027 (173,716)•
UK 319,197 (41,369)*
Indonesia 141,370 (6207)
Malaysia 9212 (125)

• 82,238 infections (2 days)
• 1110 deaths (2 days)

* 1818 infections (2 days)
* 8 deaths (2 days)

Summary
Total cases 22,049,457
New cases 5974
Total deaths 777,440
New deaths 364
Recovered 14.8m (67%)

It's a waste of time concerning oneself with the cpo price. It has no effect on the sp other than the higher the price the lower the share price. It's taken me sometime to figure out this simple truth. As to why this should be so I have no idea despite researching the jelly bean mrkt for a loose tie-in with palm share prices. I found none.

Perhaps the shares follow the 'black' stuff? They have been headed south this year so could it be REA have struck oil in a far off corner and kept it quiet? I jest of course. A simpler explanation might be manipulation or 'mates rates' never been entirely on board with that scenario despite some iffy non movements in the sp....know wot I mean like and the never ending supply of stock the jobbers can spirit up whenever needed to suppress the price.

A more likely cause is simply no interest in the stock or sector to warrant moving the price other than down to drum up business back to 'levels you devils' then churn & repeat. Eventually pis will cash out and seek pastures new.
Boring is good...so they say. Fine if your being paid to be bored, not in this parish I'm afraid to say. Pref holders hang on desperately for a payment, any payment will be welcome, Ords holders on Mystical Meg pulling rabbits out of hats and myself on the ju-ju men casting their spells.
All in vain. If we can get past the 'October crash' scene just maybe 70 is achievable then I'm gone.
Morning all.

Good post commonvog. We are on the same page! Will we ever get to know the true facts and damage this unnecessary lockdown has caused to the economy? Probably not. I fear for those in their 30s and 40s with mortgages and families to support who may struggle to find work. The waste of talent is horrific. One of my drinking buddies (43) was furloughed 4 months ago and given his P45. He ran a big independent DIY store. He tells me he has applied for 70+ jobs the most recent being a kitchen porter with no success. He is still waiting for dole money! Three million unemployed? Give me a break could easily be double that!

I seem to spend a lot of my time deleting unwanted missives via g-mail. I read one months ago from a Louis Navallier. I'm sure you have come across the self styled guru with an amazing record of making money on the US mrkts and in his benevolence wants to make money for you.

Well thanks a bunch Louis but 20 mins into your voluminous War & Peace spiel i gave up the will to live. Tip or no tip I only have so much time to read your 'ollox' and am deeply suspicious of you touting your wares to a bunch of unsuspecting ingenues. I once calculated it would take me all day to read my 'fan mail' of unwanted 'buy these stocks' before it's too late.

Such is the internet (surely the worst invention of modern times) which traps the unsuspecting into rash investments on debased FBK forums, dodgy tipping services and so called legit 'make your first million' outlets (swathes of expensive lineage in the Dailies). I'm too old in the tooth to be succer punched by scammers, i'm perfectly capable of doing the job myself but where is the FCAs hand of authority clamping down on these fly by nights in the guise of 'boiler room' respectability, now common currency on the Web?

Caveat Emptor for sure but desperate punters revert to desperate measures to earn a coin. I know I punted some dogs on Harvard Securities, Motion Media for one which was a lucky escape for me before they collapsed in 1988. Harvard bght blocks of Aus mining and US OTC stocks then parcelled them out to gullible pis in the UK but did not registered them in holders names. A salutary lesson was learnt by thousands of investors left holding the baby as Harvard went under the 37 bus from Peckham. Soon the 'shysters' gathered like vultures to determine the various Australian and US case laws pertaining to the shares bought and their legal ownership. Not a happy outcome I can tell you.

Have we not had a recent high profile case of a Broker touting a fund(s) from a certain well known investment manager which turned out to be puff pastry? Regrettably I was one though I was in before said investment guru bankrolled my blood thing. I was swayed by his stellar reputation as a healthcare investor thinking he would nurse the company to commercial success. How wrong I was.
Too late in life most of us will realise do your own research, trust noone, succeed or fail by your own efforts else you will have murderous thoughts and blaming others for not doing your own checks is pointless.
I'll give you a classic example. My then Broker advised me to stay clear of Polly Peck, (oranges, lemons in cardboard boxes flying in from Cyprus) at 8.75p. I was going to buy 10,000. I took his advice as you would only to see the stock go up like a rocket to 50, 150, 300, 600, 1000, 25000 and 35000. I kid myself I would have sold at 10p....like hell I would!
Evening all.

It doesn't take a genius (the're mostly dead or unavailable) to work out how badly the food and beverage trade has been decimated by the lockdown.
Restaurants are throwing in the towel every day, others linger on in the hope that the 'eat out to help out' scheme will keep the tills ringing before landlords or the Banks pull the plug.

I suspect wk/end sales will suffer and regardless of what schemes people dream up 120 days or more of lost revenue can never be recovered. Add to this the highly unsociable nature of dining out, hand washing, masks, distancing, screens, communication by hand signals and limited hours of openings is guaranteed to boost stay at home tv dinners.

I no longer go in any shops as I'm forced to wear a mask. Their loss, not mine. Should not those terrified of going out without a mask, visor or armour stay at home and let the rest of us return to our normal daily existence free from petty Govt restrictions which let's face it are a tad late? This self inflicted disaster could have and should have been avoided. Regrettably most of the casualties will be small mom'n pop shops, newsagents and the like. Its estimated that as many as 1m will lose their jobs by next year. Landlords will have to cut rents massively to attract new tenants, if there are any left out there prepared to risk opening a new business in the face of online demand and zero footfall.

As it is shops like empty with beaucoup pounds owed never to reopen. Perhaps the only hope is Mike Ashley buying up the entire High St?

Covid-19
09:00
GMT

Total cases 21,630,910
China 84,827 +19
Total deaths 769,207
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 5,529,789 (172,606)•
UK 317,379 (41,361)*
Indonesia 139,549 (6150)
Malaysia 9175 (125)

• 53,523 infections
• 1071 deaths

* 1012 infections
* 03 deaths
* 4672 cases per 1m pop
* 609 deaths per 1m pop
* 14•3m total tests
* 211k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 21,630,910
New cases 25,296
Total deaths 769,207
New deaths 981
Recovered 14•3m (66%)

Yea Nobull, I remember now...so recent sell was a clearing of the decks...agree your other points especially the 'pref monies' nevertheless still a drag. So a close call for break even at F/Y.

Cov, pick a winner? Goodness me after G & here my track record is poor. Made up a bit by Idea and EasyH but I need to stay within my circle of (in) competence which limits the field to palms and Beach stocks none of which are performing atm.
I hate Banks, do not understand info tech, find utilities boring as brick makers and retailers, well forget it.
I've tried blue sky miners, deep sea divers (oils), Aim wonders, iffy tips from front runners the Motley crew, the magic circle been to seances prayed to all known and unknown Gods and am still trying to find a one bagger.

If you were me what would you do? Don't you think I'm farting against thunder and didn't the Walrus say the time has come to pack your bags?