Member Info for JohnLewis79

Covid-19
07:00
GMT

Total cases 21,357,890
China 84,808 +22
Total deaths 763,387
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 5,476,266 (171,535)•
UK 316,367 (41,358)*
Indonesia 135,123 (6021)
Malaysia 9022 (125)

• 60,600 infections
• 1220 deaths

* 29 deaths
* 2569 infections
* 4657 cases per 1m pop
* 609 deaths per 1m pop
* 14•1m total tests (rev: data)
* 209k tests per 1m pop
* 13% fatality rate (rev: data)

Summary
Total cases 31,357,890
New cases 12,619
Total deaths 763,387
New deaths 723
Recovered 14•2m (66%)

The Dow ended 34 up on the day the 500, tech & R2 all slightly down but made gains on the week. Much talk about whether US mrkts have been in a bear mrkt, on the 20% down from recent high metric they have but the duration has been so short compared to the typical peak to recovery of 1500 days it's as if a bubble was popped and the Fed stepped in and blew it up again. There's probably a better analogy but it's kinda what has happened.

Weak retail sales nos hampered gains for stocks, a rise of 2% was expected but just 1•2% achieved. No mrkt reaction. Consumers are tightening their purse strings awaiting Congress to agree on any support package. The ever present black pall of corona-v effecting everything and everyone. Until a vaccine is found the mrkts will struggle to make consistent headway.

Tesla cont to squeeze the shorts closing at a record $1646 ($1795 intraday high). The stock has jumped over 18% in 2 sessions, 102% in 2 months and will trade at the split price after the mrkt close on Aug 28th. I doubt Mr Hertz ($1.50) will be taking any Teslas for his fleet'car rentals.
Topping the big board were Walgreens (+2%), Boeing, Dow inc, Intel & Chevron. At the bottom of the slippery poll Travellers ,Cisco, Cat, Visa, GS Apple and P&G all under 1% drop.
At close
DJ +34 (27931)
SP -1 (3373)
NS -23 (11,019)
R2 -2 (1578)
WTI $42.25
Brent $44.96
10y/tb 0•709%

So dear reader i shall be taking a break from the morning nos as a) I'm finding it difficult to present in an interesting way, ie not to repeat myself and b)
I will be reassessing my position here (a 50:50 call). I know I said I'd wait for the F/Y nos but I'm getting itchy feet (always a sign of trouble'at Mill) to move on because REA steadfastly refuses to do and tbh why should it just because I want it to?
Morning all.

Cpo averaged $738 over wk 33 and runs at c.$666 ytd. REA was flat to down 1p on 249,445 traded, 1 out of the ordinary bargain of 182,327 which may have been a sell skewed the total vol nos. KLPI index gained 37 on wk and is down 9% ytd.

Artemis stake wont show up on the books being top secret like, shooosh! Other palms were mixed on Friday, little movement on the week. The hot summer days not conducive for bargain hunting of which investors are spoiled for choice. End Sept should see a pick up in mrkt activity but no certainty it will include REA whose Final results should be out. These I venture to add are pretty much priced in at current. Have a good wk/end all.

Have Artemis sold out in time to miss the next leg up? You never know and I doubt their small holding has any significance to Artemis or REA for that matter.
Selling out at near lows is par for the course for many iis in my experience, clever clogs they ain't! Of course they may have got this spot on if so good luck to them but pretty sure they took a bath in the process. It's only their investors money so wgaf, certainly not Artemis.
Will we find out who picked up the stock? Dont hold your breath. Mickey Mouse sells/buys are far more important.

Demand for REA stock and other Palmers is tiny except on days the rare 100,000 buy/sell budges the weekly averages (wot averages) and that's if lse nos are to be believed? For instance do they just report one side of the trade? Does it matter? Probably not. So all volume & trade nos come with a health warning but you knew that of course.

Most palm estates will be making more money on cpo sales since H1 closed so unless 'exceptionals' screw the nos H2 should be profitable for those estates who know how to make one. Share prices currently don't reflect the improving landscape be it declining virus infections in the Pan Pacifics
or expected improving demand in Q4 through 2021.

But REA has other concerns of a more pressing nature... the Damoclean Debt problem. In REAs case its priced for the knackers yard given it's no profit/price record of recent years and 'planting out' on hold. This looks likely to continue into 2021 if the price remains well below its $800 longterm average. The IDR ain't helping at 14850 to the USD and a backlog of interest payments to the Bank will become due in 2021 if given a 'pass' this year. The Prefs have another year of no interest methinks. The repayment due on the 8•75% sterling notes already exceeds the Co value and total debt is swamping the good work carried out by estate management. Wot about NAV, EV? I hear you say. Yea wot about it? Twaddle!

However successful the management are at controlling and reducing costs any gains will given over to our creditors for years to come. While dividends have never been a concern for me capital appreciation is and I ain't getting any here. I should cut losses now and find another loser before it's too late. Best read and then bin as another moan from a disgruntled investor.

The Indonesian Palm Oil Association reported H/Y output of cpo & cpko declined 9% YOY to 23.5mt impacted by covid-19 and last years prolonged drought. Due to El Nino, lower cultivation, less fertiliser sales and the palm oil price crash 2019 ($531 H1 av) being the main causes of lower output.
Incidentally local demand has been strong, consumption hit 8.6mt to unseen levels of c.37% (30%) especially in the olechemical sectors, soaps, hand sanitizers, shampoos & industrial products.

Export sales fell 11% YOY to 15mt (17•5)mt as global demand declined significantly. The WTO has forecast that global trade will contract 13% at best and 32% at worst. The situation has reversed as Q3 has seen a big improvement in the average palm price during Aug of $740.

Covid-19
03:30
GMT

Total cases 21,080,357
China 84,786 +30
Total deaths 753,467
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 5,415,666 (170,415)•
UK 313,798 (41,347)*
Indonesia 132,816 (5968)
Malaysia 9129 (125)
Anguilla 3 (0)

• 55,364 infections
• 1284 deaths

* n/a infections
* 18 deaths
* 4620 cases per 1m pop
* 609 deaths per 1m pop
* 18•9m total tests
* 278k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 21,080,357
New cases 9963
Total deaths 753,467
New deaths 700
Recovered 14m (67%)

Never up on last nights close the Dow is trading in a very narrow range of c.120 points currently down 11 at mid'morning. The jobless nos came in much lower than the 1.1m forecast totalling 963,000 'signees-on'. No $600 paycheck from the Govt as the stalemate continues over the aid package and Trumps executive order to funnel cash ($300) to the jobless will be challenged in the courts.

Regardless the mrkts take comfort from the fact that economic data shows resilience to spikes of virus infections here and abroad. Equities are bumping up against record closes daily and company earnings are better than Wall expected. Today big tech Cisco came off 11% on revs declining for the 4th consecutive Q. The CF0 is stepping down, shares fell $5 to $43. Along with Exxon -3% they contributed c.50 drag on the Dow.

Novavax gained $13 ($137) on news of a tie up with a S.Korean bio Co on its antigen components for its vaccine candidate. Moderna & Gilead both lower. 3M rose $2 ($167) after reporting broad based improvements in sales last month. Beach stocks took a breather Cruises were docked, planes in slots and leisure/hotels were plain dead as dodos, not a $ movement either way among the leading companies.

Tesla cont to boot the shorters in the nether regions climbing another $82 to $1637. Some stroke Musk pulled on the '5 for 1' which makes zero difference to the company's value but being lapped up by his army of pis some 500,000 trade the stock on the Robinhood app. In one fell swoop he stopped the slide in the sp and caught the shorters napping. Shortly investors will receive 4 new for 1 old equating to c.$310. After hours Tesla traded at $1635 as Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock.

Stocks came off session best but a late 100 rally took the Dow off session lows. Only the Nsdq Comp & the 500 are in the 'black' ytd column 23% & 4% respectively.
At close:
DJ -80 (27897)
SP -7 (3373)
NS +30 (11,042)
R2 -3 (1580)
WTI $42.24
10y/tb 0•712%

Current Nos:- Oil $45.00. Vix 22. Gold $1963. Palm$742.
$1.306. €1.106. IDR 14801.
MSCI(W) 571. FF-13. DF +48.
Morning all.

A sell.

The CPOPC (Council of oil producers) say the future demand for palm oil will increase in the years to come. One thing is for sure palm oil will never run out.
In other news the CPOPC has asked Kraft Heinz the US conglomerate to withdraw its negative campaign on palm oil & palm-free claims. Kraft Heinz sell many of their products in Indonesia & Malaysia and have offices in both countries. Consumers of palm oil have voted with their cash.
Palm oil is here to stay, get used to it.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 20,806,965
China 84,756 +19
Total deaths 747,258
China 4634

Countries 313
(Selected)
USA 5,360,302 (169,131)•
UK 313,798 (41,329)*
Indonesia 130,718 (5903)
Malaysia 9114 (125)

• 54,435 infections
• 1382 deaths

* 1009 infections
* 5299 lower deaths new calc.
* 4620 cases per 1m pop
* 608 deaths per 1m pop
* 18•9m total tests
* 278k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 20,806,965
New cases 9586
Total deaths 747,258
New deaths 847
Recovered 13•7m (66%)

Apple and Msoft contribute about 106 points of the Dows morning rally of 280 the Nsdq hitting 11,003 at lunch. Advices from the East & London were positive for equities. FAANGs were back with a bang, Amazing up $75, Flix up $11, Google added $27 and Msoft put on $6.
Optimism over a vaccine and a slowing down of infections brought out the buyers. Tesla shot up $126 to $1501 on the proposed 5 for 1 stock split. Cruises and Airlines were marking time with little to no movement in prices, Royal Carribean off $3 led the downers after securing a $750m term loan from Morgan Stanley. On the economy CPI core nos ex (food & energy) increased by 0.6% in July providing no shocks. Congress still undecided as how to extend cash to strapped investors and businesses are beginning to focus on the Nov election where Biden is still 8/11f and Trump coming in to 6/4.

A choppy pm session saw the 500 near it's all time high of 3386, just 4 months ago the 500 had tumbled to a low of 2237 when the virus was sweeping across the USA. The rise in stocks was broad based and that's producing the V shaped recovery investors wanted. Seven sectors saw gains. Healthcare standing out with 2%, Utilities, consumer staples and real estate 1% better, financials & Boeing lost ground on the day. Shorts were rushing to close Tesla up 14% to $1557 after hours.

Kodak slipped to $9.72 following news that execs had been granted stock options just before securing the Govt $756m loan, now on ice. The CEO got 1.75m stock options (25% exercisable immediately!) he also bght stock in June which had gained nearly $3m in value. Just why did the Govt pick the failed photographic pioneer Co to switch to pharma when as recently as May Kodak had doubts as a "going concern" and did Jared Kushner play a part in 'smoothing' the loan? Investigators have much to look into. Another example of a small group of 'in the knows' coining it. My guess Kodak is a bust.

Tomorrow the Dept of Labour release jobless claims, expect 1.1m. First time claims have been above 1m for 20 straight weeks. Inevitably the Govt will have to raise taxes and rates to pay for the virus costs likely sooner than later under a Democratic President.
At close:
DJ +290 (27,977)
SP +47 (3380)
NS +229 (11,012)
R2 +8 (1583)
WTI $42•67
10y/tb 0•657%

Nos: Oil $45.39. Vix 22.
Gold $1947. Palm $741.
$1.306. €1.106. IDR 14807.
MSCI(W) 571. FF-38. DF-30.
Morning all.

REA dropped out of the All Share quarterly mrkt cap lists, when it didnt make the June 2020 list the cut off value being £33.7m.
Prior to that REA had been a regular since Dec 2010 mrkt cap £231m listed at no 413/705 its highest position ever. Owing to declining cpo prices REA fell steadily to no 662 in 3/2020 and has not been a contender since.

I doubt it means a great deal once you fall below £100m value more of interest to chart followers and statistically minded investors. The next review is in Sept, 2020 so very unlikely REA will make the list now down to the top 664.

Covid-19
04:30
GMT

Total cases 20,522,191
China 84,737 +25
Total deaths 745,927
China 4634

Countries 213
USA 5,305,957 (167,749)
UK 312,789 (46,628)
Indonesia 128,776 (5824)
Malaysia 9103 (125)

• 54,511 infections
• 1557 deaths

* 1148 infections
* 102 deaths
* 4605 cases per 1m pop
* 686 deaths per 1m pop
* 18•9m total tests
* 278k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 20,522,191
New cases 10,500
Total deaths 745,927
New deaths 1011
Recovered 13•4m (65%)

Seasonal flu deaths ytd
299,723.

The Dow bounces 330 on a supposed Corona-v vaccine registered in Russia though plenty of sceptics pooh phooed the Rusky claims. The techs looked the other way and fell 110, investors have fallen out of love with the big FAANGs and cut positions on any small rally. Smaller techs trading on 1000x earnings were kicked into the long grass. No progress on the support package helps the 'bear' case as many States are grappling with budget deficits and long queues down the dole office.
The 500 approaches its all'time high as investors sell techs and move into beaten down cyclicals and BEACH stocks. Corona cases have fallen 14% and fatalities 6% in the last 14 days and adding to the good feelings Trumps poll nos are looking much rosier. Wall, despite indifference to Trump would not like a Biden/Harris ticket given his antithesis to big business. Investors have largely by passed the election focussing on 2021 earnings, cont Govt stimulus and a vaccine being available. Whoever's in charge wont change that.

Cruises cont yesterdays good run with Norwegian leading the way up 7%, Airlines were dull with little interest by buyers or sellers. However good news from Intercontinental Hotels up 5% ($4193) boosted the likes of Wynn Resorts up 7%, Las Vegas Sands 7%, Marriott and MGM Grand. Tesla cont to please shorters at $1397 early doors but shorters were bush'whacked when Musk pulled a stroke by announcing a stock split sending the shares nearly $100 ($1475) higher in after hours trading. The split 5 for 1 was cheered by pis which could see the price fall to $300. Hertz off a tch at $1.60 still baffles punters as over the last 4 wks has traded in a narrow 30c band as most of the Robin Hood punters have moved on to the next mover'n shaker. Moderna jumped 10% late on, the Govt agreeing to buy 100m doses in a $1.5bn deal. Novavax slumped $29 on the news.

Gold got a dose of the flu bug falling $48 at open on profit taking and subsequently tanked c.$121 (6%) its bigest one day fall since 2013 with other commodities suffering falls particularly silver slumping 14% ($24.76). Oils, Banks & Boeing topped the big board, techs and retailers lagged the top 30. Late on the afternoon crowd seized an opportunity to bank gains taking 470 off the top as the Nsdq slid 207 and the 500 lost 47 from days high.
At close:
DJ -104 (27687)
SP -27 (3334)
NS -186 (10,783)
R2 -10 (1576)
WTI $41.60
10y/tb 0•653%

Nos: Oil $44.68. Vix 24.
Gold $1901. Palm $720.
$1.303. €1.111. IDR 14766.
MSCI(W) 574. FF-10. DF +53.
Morning all.

Gold ($1996) getting crushed this morning off $44 and down from 52wk high $2089 as dealers and investors rush to bank gains.
Despite the virus rampaging through India investors overlooked Corona-v
to sell out. Longterm bulls of Gold see $3000 on the horizon. I have no feel for Gold as it relies on the next man paying more for the stuff than you did while producing nothing.

It's been a very good ride this year up 32% if you were lucky enough to be in early. Around this price might be a good entry/buy back price which you can get exposure to via GPM a Gold fund quoted in London.

Jumping jack flash its, cash cash cash in Asia this morning all bourses ahead despite worsening trade relations and US infections over 50,000 daily with China seeing small spikes of corona-v.

At 1:30pm JST
TK +427
HK +585
SH +11
SHZ +3
SK +32
JSX +34
ASX2 +26

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 20,254,685
China 84,712 +44
Total deaths 738,930
China 4634

Countries 213
USA 5,251,446 (166,192)•
UK 311,641 (46526)*
Indonesia 127,083 (5765)
Malaysia 9094 (125)

• 52,002 infections
• 579 deaths

* 816 infections
* n/a
* 4588 cases per 1m pop
* 685 deaths per 1m pop
* 18•6m total tests
* 274k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 20,254,685
New cases 9265
Total deaths 738,930
New deaths 814
Recovered 13•1m (65%)

Average bargain dealt in REA
yesterday was 27. Granted it was a Monday and in the high summer when stocks are the last things on people's minds 'cepting a few sad cases like moi.
I read on another board that all these sub 10 trades might be Robin Hood apps which allow very small free of commission I assume purchases else it would be a waste of money. Maybe, maybe not I still don't get it.

Not much action in other Palmers which may have finished better on the day, well from Fridays close which may have been better or worse or flat, one can never really tell. Lse closes come with a health warning mainly on Anglo & MPE which can vary as much as 20-30p from close to open.

An early 160 fall on the Nsdq didnt dent the Dow which headed up throughout the session. Many investors are cutting exposure to techs fearing a bubble is about to burst. FAANG stocks in particular saw early falls but made a half hearted recovery later. Amazing closed $11 down, Flix off $11, Msoft $4 & shorters fave play Tesla $34 to ($1419).
Investors were buoyed by Trumps stimulus orders over the wk/end which included:

* $300 unemployment cheque
* ceasing evictions
* pay roll tax holiday
* defer student loans payback
Whether he can railroad this through without challenge is not known atm.

Airlines got a shot in the arm as the TSA reported the highest nos of travellers passing through checkpoints, American, United, Delta, Southwest all rose $1-$3. Boeing topped the leaderboard up $5 with Cat, Raytheon, Nike, Chevron and Amex. Msoft propping up the rest of the 30. Cruises were wanted, among the better market performers, RC was 10% up, Carnival 9% & Norwegian 8%. Other Cos in the news, Kodak slumped 28% to $11 on news that the $750m Govt loan was being 'reviewed', Kodak traded at $17 last Thursday. Twitter was flat on news of a possible TikTok tie up.
Crude was having a good day as S.Aramco said it had seen demand improving, WTI up 3%.
At close:
DJ +358 (27,791)
SP +9 (3360)
NS -43 (10,968)
R2 +15 (1585)
WT1 $42.23
10y/tb 0•564%

Nos: Oil $45.19. Vix 22.
Gold $2026. Palm $743.
$1.308. €1.114. IDR 14723.
MSCI(W) 564. FF +42. DF +76.
Morning all.