Member Info for JohnLewis79

Palm Oil was first planted in Selangor in 1917. Since those days some 600,000 smallholders have been helped by the Govts FLDA program. Land now owned by smallholders amount to 40% of the planted ha in Malaysia of which palm accounts for 70% of all the agricultural land area.
With limited space for new plantations it's now crucial
for estates to become more productive. For instance the average yield throughout Malaysian Estates is c.3.8t per ha. Some estates are already producing 6t per ha. Malaysia has a poor record in estates being MSPO certified at just 4%
this needs to increase dramatically to show good agricultural practice as buyers now insist on certificated oils.

Recent research by the MPOB showed that palm oil derivatives, tocotrienols / vitamin E can help prevent cancer and there is a lot of potential for palm in the pharmaceutical space. Besides that the palm kernel is only 10% of the tree value as a lot more can be extracted from the trunk (furniture making) and fonds and of course biomass which is sold on to the grid. Malaysia produces 88mt of biomass annually.

The recent Genome project by Sime Derby to develop palm seedlings with higher yields is already being planted out by SD and other companies and if successful will be a huge step forward in estate efficiency & cutting deforestation.

Covid-19
03:00
GMT
Total cases 16,643,033
China 83,959 +68
Total deaths 656,495
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 4,433,410 (150,444)•
UK 300,111 (45759)*
Indonesia 100,303 (4838)
Malaysia 8904 (124)

• 61,571 infections
• 595 deaths

* 685 infections
* 7 deaths
* 4419 cases per 1m pop
* 674 deaths per 1m pop
* 15m total tests
* 221k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 16,643,033
New cases 7603
Total deaths 656,495
New deaths 414
Recovered 10•2m (61%)

Morning rugs it's all I can afford!
Hope to make some money at Goodwood this week. I can back winners at that track but nowhere else. Last 4 Summer meets I have been ahead, may it last.

Had to be techs driving the mrkt higher after Fridays sell off (Dow -182) that boosted a flagging mrkt 150 higher soon after the bell. FAANGs led equities up but were eclipsed by Gold hitting $1943 a record high beating the previous of $1930 set 9 years ago.
So far 128 S&P stocks have reported 2Q nos and 80% have beaten 'low bar' expectations. As overall earnings have fallen c.40% from the previous period share prices have headed higher overturning previous expectations of poor earnings nos and share prices heading up instead of down. Some big stocks will report this week, Pfizer, Big Mac, Google, 3M & Starbucks.

As London closed up 9 (6141) the Dow was well off intraday high (26625) & the Nsdq Comp (10508). Stocks in demand were the usual suspects Apple, Dow inc, Big Mac, 3M & Cat with Boeing unloved propping up the losers. Airlines were all down c.1% on no interest as were Cruises, Hotels & Leisure.

Virus infection rates are showing signs of slowing in Arizona & Texas along with California. Coronas are better today, Moderna jumping 8% to $79 as its Phase 3 study got underway. The Co said it was on target to deliver 500m doses annually beginning in 2021 this after receiving $427m of extra funds from BADA. Novavax up 4% ($139) and Gilead unchanged.
Tesla pulled out from $1425 day low is massively overvalued on any known metric but heh.... in these mrkts the nos mean squat. Now well below recent $1643 high Tesla spurted up c.12% to close at $1543. Shorters are not out of the woods yet. Your a brave man playing with this counter.

The Senate has agreed a further $1tn debt to be added in an effort to boost the economy as infections refuse to die down. The current payment of $600 a week to all unemployed will come to an end on Friday and might be cut to $200. It has been a lifeline to millions and until a vaccine is found people will need to be supported.
It's been est that 30-40% of US shop fronts will not see the light of day again. The other fear stalking mrkts is there could be a 3rd or even a 4th 'Wave' lasting many more months. Until the last man standing has been infected the virus is here to stay. While Trump & Co ponder that possibility the mrkt closed at...
DJ +115 (26585)
SP +24 (3239)
NS +173 (10536)
R2 +17 (1485)
WTI $41.72
10y/tb 0•623%

Nos: Oil $43.61. Vix 25.
Gold $1967. Palm $719.
$ 1.289. €1.096. IDR 14517
MSCI(W) 553. FF +34. DF +74.
Morning all.

Covid-19
05:30
GMT

Total cases 16,421,465
China 83,891 +61
Total deaths 652,276
China 4634

Countries 213
USA 4,371,839 (149,849)•
UK 299,426 (45,752)*
Indonesia 98,778 (4781)
Malaysia 8897 (124)

• 56,130 infections
• 451 deaths

* 14 deaths yesterday
* 745 infections
* 4409 cases per 1m pop
* 674 deaths per 1m pop
* 14•8m total tests
* 218k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 16,421,465
New cases 10,986
Total deaths 652,276
New deaths 399
Recovered 10•1m (62%)

Diplomatic & trade tensions kept investors wary and most were sidelined as wk 31 started. Investors bought Gold as a hedge against other risk assets climbing $30 today and 27% better ytd. A weak $ is pushing commodities higher. Can Gold hit $2000 in the weeks ahead?
The Nikkei back in business after a 4 day holiday is down 65 as with HK off 22. Shanghai, Seoul and Jakarta posting small gains. Taiwan's Taiex surged c.2•5%.

Virus spikes across the world continue to dominate mrkt concerns. Brazil, India, Israel (1800) and Victoria (Aus) 532 new cases have all hit record increases of infections which inevitably will lead to business closures and a flagging economic recovery.
At 1:00pm JST.
TK -57
HK -22
SH +3
SHZ +5
JSX +19
ASX200 +11

Nos: Oil $43.35. Vix 26.
Gold $1928. Palm $710.
$1.284. €1.096. IDR 14571
MSCI(W) 548. FF +10. DF +100.
Morning all.

Analysts are bearish on palm oil prices, Dorab Mistry said "prices could be sustained if Brent crude remains around current levels of $43pb. However if palm output follows its usual trend for Q4 then current prices & inventories are simply too high and will need to fall. Cpo has rallied c.26% in the last 11 weeks and no'one saw that coming.

I often think its pick a number and hope for the best as the mrkt rarely falls into a predictive pattern especially since the pandemic of early 2020. Well, I guess the 'talkin heads' have to justify their existence but whether anybody takes any notice I doubt. After all if I said palm prices were set to rocket would you give me the time of day? No, you would not.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 16,202,385
China 83,930 +46
Total deaths 648,445
China 4634

Countries 213

USA 4,315,709 (149,398)•
UK 298,681 (45,738)*
Investors 97,286 (4714)
Malaysia 8884 (123)

• 67,282 infections
• 908 deaths

* 61 deaths yesterday
* 767 infections
* 4398 cases per 1m pop
* 674 deaths per 1m pop
* 14•6m total tests
* 215k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 16,202,385
New cases 12,075
Total deaths 648,445
New deaths 843
Recovered 9•9m (61%)

At least MPE held on to its 30 gain over the session, flat on the wk. As the 'daddy' of the sector here's some nos vis a vis REA from the virus low point. I have taken March 23 for reference.

Ftse 4994
All 2729
(250) 13078

Cpo $655

REA 85
Mpe 427

Since March 23rd to yesterdays closes.

Ftse UP 1130 (23%)
Cpo UP $85 (13%)
Mpe UP 103 (24%)
REA down 27 (32%)

REA had to deal with the EOTW (end of the world) factor when an iis sold out its stake and since then has struggled. There is no FOMO (fear of missing out) factor at play here.
The longer one delays the cheaper the share. Some say that's good, buying $bills for cents, so what's not to like. I kinda agree if you think its cents your picking up. In REAs case it's expensive cents coming with a creditors tag to remind you to beware.

US markets fell across all sectors on Friday due to rising Diplomatic tensions between China-US and the closing of the US Embassy in Chengdu a tit for tat move by China.
Rising infections in most States, uncertainty over a vaccine, over valued techs & earnings miss from Intel which slumped 16% to $50 due to delays to its next-gen chip was enough for investors to take a early bus home carrying their Gold bars.
At close
DJ -182 (26,470)
SP -20 (3216)
NS -98 (10363)
R2 -23 (1468)
WTI $41.31
US 10y/tb 0•591%

Nos: Oil $43.33. Vix 26
Gold $1900. Palm $744.
$1.279. €1.097. IDR14603.
MSCI(W)548.
Morning all.

Covid-19
06:00
GMT

Total cases 15,945,330
China 83,784 +34
Total deaths 642,776
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 4,248,327 (148,490)
UK 297,914 (45,677)*
Indonesia 95,418 (4665)
Malaysia 8861 (123)

* 123 deaths yesterday
* 768 infections
* 4387 cases per 1m pop
* 673 deaths per 1m pop
* 14•3m total tests
* 210k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 15,945,330
New cases 13,885
Total deaths 642,776
New deaths 891
Recovered 9•7m (61%)

A few mixed trades at 57.78 and 59.95 which makes a change from the mad hatters share parties of recent weeks. Don't look like I'm gonna get in c.55 but I can wait as there is zero momentum in the price controlled as it is by Broker trade to the jobbers the SEAQ system.
Doubt there is much business on the SETS, an automated version which will be extended to the Aim backwaters in due course. It might reduce spreads & commissions but don't count on it. When all is said, no demand, no anything SEAQ, SETS or on Mogadishu.

I'm not a deal junkie, I'm quite prepared to watch and wait hoping the mrkt will re-rate to fair value. But I'm not betting my bottom dollar that's gonna happen this year.
REA lost (3) on (110.6k) traded over the wk but cpo headed higher from last Fidays $707 close to $744. Ytd cpo is off 8% which mirrors the KLP index. Cpko is flat ytd at $761.
Crude which cpo follows lost 18c to $43.20 but 35% down ytd so has decoupled in the short term from palm oil after the abortive attempt by S.Arabia to corner the mrkt.

The ftse lost 166 (c.3%) & the All 75 (2%) on the wk. Ytd the 100 is down 1418 (19%) the All losing 798 (19%) and the more UK centric 250 is down 4618 (21%). Not the best of starts to the year but all things considered the ftse could easily have been down 50%+ at H1 as it was in late March.

Have a good wk/end all.

Beginning to get near my next buy point so come on sellers I need sub 55 before 45 obviously, mus'nt be too greedy.

Solid set of nos from MPE shares up 10 which wont translate here. Not much diff to their trading statement back in June so superfluous to requirements methinks.

It's all red in the East as you'd expect. Japan is closed for a holiday. China is off 2% checking the tech falls on the Nsdq and all Pan Pacifics are follow my leader down.
AT 12:20 CST
TK closed
BSE -191
HK -461
SH -75
SHZ -67
SK -14
TAIX -139
KLCI -16
STI -34
JSX -45
ASX200 -71

Indonesias State owned Oil Co PT Pertamina is about to test jet fuel made of 3% palm oil. The "Green" jet fuel is part of the roadmap for the Cos biorefinery development to realise 'green' energy in Indonesia.
Eventually it hopes to be 100% palm oil through processing RBDO (refined, bleached, deodorised) straight into its refineries using catalytic cracking & hydrogen gas.
PT Pertamina are developing " biorefineries" in Cilap and Plaju with an output capacity of 6000 & 20,000 bpd to produce diesel oil & jet fuel made of 100% palm oil in time.
The programme is a key part of the Govts strategy to soak up excess palm oil and cut expensive fuel imports. Some US airplanes are already running on a palm oil mix.

Covid-19
04:00
GMT
Total cases 15,654,428
China 83,750 +21
Total deaths 636,475
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 4,169,991 (147,333)•
UK 297,146 (45554)*
Indonesia 93,657 (4576)
Malaysia 8840 (123)

• 69,116 new cases
• 1150 deaths

* 769 infections
* 53 deaths yesterday
* 4376 cases per 1m pop
* 671 deaths per 1m pop
* 14m total tests
* 206k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 15,654,428
New cases 12,441
Total deaths 636,475
New deaths 809
Recovered 9•5m (61%)

the mad hatters share party. At 16:28 (401) shares were carried or parcelled out over 13 bargains at 57 & 60 stock closing down 3.5 at 58.5.
Not that it matters vis a vis the sp, cpo put on $5 to $738. Other Palmers could have been up or down I dont know. Today is the who'd wanna be holding these over the week end?....so a nothing doing session. REA is down 109 ytd (65%) while cpo is off 8% so that's just 'tickety boo!' or to be more prosaic its 'ollox'

Early pointers are for the Dow to open 40 lower. The jobless nos were worse than feared exceeding 1.4m and the 18th straight week of 1m+ signers on. Senate Republicans have agreed the details of a $1tn package to businesses and households stricken by covid-19. These did included a $600 a wk supplement to unemployment benefits previously and now at a proposed much reduced $100 per wk. At March 20th, 52m Americans had signed up for benefits and on virus news total cases of Corona-v took just 16 days to jump from 3m to 4m cases.

The Dow fell 116 at the bell as earnings are poleaxed. Southwest posted a net 2Q loss of $915m and CEO Kelly said it would take 5-10 years for business travel to recover pre pandemic levels, shares off $1 at $32. American the Texas based carrier reported a $2.1bn 2Q loss American was up 4% at close. Twitter jumped 6% as user nos surged beating growth forecasts, shares rose to $39 as eps skyrocketed 570%. Walt Disney have cancelled 3 blockbuster films due for release in 2020/1 and Trump the 'Protector' cancels Florida. Tyson the Terror returns to the ring (Champ in 1986) as Taylor S and Kanye West go 'mano a mano' today.

Tesla defying the laws of gravity rose 4% pre market and is killing the shorters as the stock cleared $1600 in early mrkt moves. Msoft which beat forecasts yesterday cont to see sellers, shares off $4 to $207 early on. Oils, techs, Apple & Boeing lagged the main mrkt as London closed up 4 the Dow off 110 and techs 13 lower with Amazon down $109 to $3002.

The mrkt abruptly turned down in the pm session as cooler heads viewed the deteriorating job prospects, increasing infections, millions out of work & China hostilities as a clue to take profits on stretched tech valuations. Decliners outpaced advances by 1544/1428 and 8/11 SP 500 sectors were lower. All the big techs fell. Intel beat forecasts fell 7%. Star performers like Tesla ran into sellers lost $107 to $1484 much to the shorters relief. Amazon off $113 to $2987, Msoft down $8 ($203) & Apple $18 lower at ($371) is facing a consumer protection probe. Tech shares represent c.30% of the SP 500 weighting. For instance Apple & Msoft probably took 150 off the Dow. Even the coronas fell, Moderna 9% and Novavax 5%.
At close
DJ -354 (26652)
SP -40 (3236)
NS -245 (10461)
R2 u/c
WTI $41.07
10y/tb 0•597%

Nos: Oil $43.46. Vix 26.
Gold $1884. Palm $738.
$1.275. €1.098. IDR 14594.
MSCI(W) 556. FF -48. DF -14.
Morning all.

....today I made my first purchase of REA at 96+. I spoiled my avc by buying a few more at 130 & 150. Since then I have been adding to my losing position when monies were available. My losing position is now 71.

I also attempted to buy £10,000 worth in 2016 around £3+ but despite my repeated requests for an AR could not obtain one. I took the hint. I put my cash elsewhere. Unfortunately into an o...lie which went South as soon as my name was on the register. In a mad gamble to recoup losses went all in on the next wonder med device, my 'blood thing' which damn near finished me off.
The fact I'm still standing attests to my pig headedness in stock picking which I'm happy to say REA will be my last tilt at making money.....unless you know of a good thing!!