Member Info for JohnLewis79

One of the many ironies of stock mrkt investing is the emphasis on 'marketability' and liquidity in other words ease of selling in quantities. This is good for the croupier rarely for the customer as frictional costs of transfer add to the costs and do nothing for the earnings of the business. Add them up if you don't believe me.
It's a very expensive game of musical chairs. I read somewhere that on the NYSE if on c.100m share trade days (back pre big bang) at 20c a share cost the flip'flopping over a year would add up to the combined profits of Big Oil, that's mega mega bucks forfeited just to sell REA and buy MPE and buy REA and....you get the picture and I ain't mentioned management fees for changing chairs, leaving less and less Mowbray pork pies for you and me.

Most pis would prefer to have a 'no holds barred escape' route should they need cash as opposed to a low vol counter which will have constraints if your forced to sell. Lots of trades indicate a popular counter, Right? Wrong!
It's an expensive game of musical chairs if your forever changing stocks. The solution is to hold for the longterm, ie more than a year so as not to get sucked into Brokers 'churning' for commission. It's taken me a longtime to realise that spreads and commissions eat into your gains unless your 'in the money' on trades. I always thought I could recover hidden costs by backing winners over time so it didn't matter what costs were. Ever added up the spreads and costs? You might get a shock.

I don't think I did, having gone the price of a pint of Brains Bitter from penury in 1987, it took me until 1992 to get back to over par through two lucky picks neither of which had anything to do with 'paper.' More of the "4 legged" friends who had me tap dancing to my local the Atlantic Hotel in Porthcawl. Roland Picton Jones, a local farmer and fair golfer must have heard of my windfall as he sold me two Alsatian puppies when I was in my cups, grrrrrr!!
Scrum was later killed by a drunken driver speeding along the Sea'-front. His brother Rex named after the great Cardiff, Wales & Lions scum half Rex Willis I gave back to RPJ when I returned to London. May he chase sheep for evermore.

Nowdays Companies have no idea as to how many holders they have and are not interested, there must be exceptions of course not that I know any. Agms back in the day were a day out especially if held in the Truman Brewery City HO which had a well stocked cellar and bar for investor AGMs. A popular day out. I can attest as a group of misguided Grovebell invstrs near drank the place dry on one occasion. I was in at 8, out at 15, before Grovebell went the way of blue sky miners. One of my lucky escapes.
So while we live and trade on line...old fogeys like me will rail from the sidelines as to the craziness of it all and believe it was much better in my day.
Was it? I really dont know but one thing I am sure of it was a hell of a lot more fun and I dont remember

An Anti Trust Org (Liberty) has filed a petition to ban palm oil imports produced by Sime Derby one of the Worlds largest suppliers to the USA.
It found evidence of forced child labour on estates that supply US food and cosmetic companies. The petition was filed with US Customs. In addition it found other abuses which included threats, intimidation, withholding wages and poor living conditions.

Sime Derbys communication officer said they had only just learned of the petition and would respond in due course but would work with Liberty to resolve the issues.

Covid-19
04:30
GMT

Total cases 12,387,828
China 83,585 +4
Total deaths 557,405
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 3,219,999 (135,822)
UK 287,621 (44,602)*
Indonesia 70,736 (3417)
Malaysia 8683 (121)

* 85 deaths yesterday
* 642 new infections
* 4236 cases per 1m pop
* 657 deaths per 1m pop
* 11•3m total tests
*166k tests per 1m pop

Fatality rate
UK 15%
USA 4%
Global 4%
Indo •48%
Mal •14%

Summary
Total cases 12,387,828
New cases 8974
Total deaths 557,405
New deaths 804
Recovered 7•2m (58%)

Jobless nos fell c.100,000 in July to a 4 month low of 1.31m but the pace of layoffs shows no signs of slowing. Another 1.04m people applied for benefits through a temporary Federal- relief program. New claims posted highs in California, NY & Florida. The nos were expected but the Dow nevertheless slid 200 in early deals as Wallgreen Boots 3Q nos disappointed, non US sales fell $700m and buy-backs were shelved though an increased div is being paid. Shares slumped 9% to $38. Heading down were GS, Dow inc, Boeing and Wells Fargo who announced thousands of layoffs were planned. The Bank is donating $400m to small businesses from proceeds of the Payroll Protection Program and $28m is earmarked for black entrepreneurs. WF has processed 179,000 loans for an average size of $56k, the majority to companies with 10 or fewer staff. Most banks are tending lower today. Hertz staggers on under the $19bn debt weight most of which is tied to their car fleet, stock off 30c to $1.45. If your a car rental man try Avis.

The Nsdq comp cont to defy sceptics ticking up to a new intraday high thanx to Flix, Amazing & Msoft all at new highs. Coronas were little changed from yesterday and likewise Cruises were in dry dock. Airlines were grounded, United off 5%, Delta 4%, SW 3%, American 5%, Jet Blue down 5% and Spirit the ultra low cost carrier fell 4%. At 'elevenses' the Dow was staring at a 500 loss slumping to 25549 as investors cleared the decks pre the wk/end. A record spike of infections & deaths were reported in Florida, California & Texas.

In the face of this invstrs cont to pile into tech counters. The S&P500s tech sector has risen 10% since June 1st versus 3% for the broader mrkt. Energy is off 12%, Financials 6% & Utilities 4%, no wonder the Ndsq powers ever higher (Ytd 18% up, 52wk +29%, 3 month +29% & 1 month up11%). Since the 'virus low' of late March the Nsdq comp has put on 3687 (54%).

DJ -361 (25706)
SP -18 (3152)
NS +55 (10548)
R2 -28 (1399)
WTI $39.35
10y/tb 0•618

Nos: Oil $42.09. Vix 29.
Gold $1806. Palm $672.
$1.259. €1.117. IDR 14456
MSCI(W) 538. FF +13. DF -53.
Morning all.

With REA mrkt cap in the knackers yard valued at c.£26m the planted acreage is in for nothing and has zero value. Plainly that's nonsense. Last valuation was c.$8000 pha but a pandemic value might be nearer $4-5,000 pha. At the lower of the two nos that equates to a value of c.250pps (inc value of Prefs) a huge margin of safety if you believe such things. You would pay c.$10,900 pha in 2019 down from $13,500 a year earlier.

Valuing the assets at X but receiving X is another matter. Values for plantation companies have been on the slide for a good few years so any sale value would necessarily take this into account hence my $4000 guesstimate on $6000 asked. Would the board consider such a price? I very much doubt it and the mrkt is pricing the stock on a fire sale basis of no takers.
Revenues of c.$150m (cpo $650 av) in 2020 might produce $10m net profits or eps of c.22 pps a pe/r of 2.6x which makes no sense to me. I'm hoping 2019 will be near break even or worst way $10m loss. Whatever the nos turn out to be the stock is trading off historic lows and is surely overdue a rerate.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 12,170,408
China 83,581 + 9
Total deaths 552,112
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 3,158,932 (134,862)
UK 286,979 (44,517)*
Indonesia 68,079 (3359)
Malaysia 8677 (121)

* 126 deaths yesterday
* 630 new infections
* 4227 cases per 1m pop
* 656 deaths per 1m pop
* 11m total tests
* 163k tests per 1m pop
* 15.5% fatality rate.

Summary
Total cases 12,170,408
New cases 14,806
Total deaths 552,112
New deaths 920
Recovered 7•1m (58%)

Techs bump the Dow at open, Apple, Msoft and Nike combine for a near 70 point contribution despite corona-v and Washington/Beijing tensions the Dow put on 200 and the Nsdq comp 110. A 60,000 jump of new infections on Tuesday a record one day increase boosted the total nos to 2.97m cases and 130.6k fatalities which hardly caught the eye of investors. Florida reported 7761 cases and Texas over 10,000 as Congress prepares for the summer recess with the window for 'phase 4' stimulus bill closed companies are going to sweat out a long hot summer dependent on the consumer.

As London closed (6156) the Dow helped by Apple, Msoft, GS & Cat could not stem the rush to sell in the hour before lunch the 30 slumping 300 to 25800 as traders took gains and shrewdies cut positions. Boeing, Amex and Dow inc were suffering while techs headed the big board gainers. Airlines were lower by 2%-3%, United about to furlough 36,000 US based staff recovered early falls. Cruises were little changed and Coronas were unchanged, Novavax lost $6 on profit taking.

Hertz fell to $1.31 now just another suckers punt and Luckin Coffee finding buyers has put on $1.36 to $3.83 which might be down to the founder getting a 'red card' but with these roulette counters nobody really knows. Vol alone dictates the sp moves there is nothing else to go on.
Brooks Bros the famous Mens outfitters filed for bankruptcy, operating since 1818 it has had to close 25% of its 250 stores as revenues plummeted. The Co had been struggling for a nos of years pre corona-v.
A sudden change in sentiment saw the Dow jump nearly 200 in the last hour wrong footing investors fuelled by tech demand Apple, Amazon, Netflix & Fbk all closed at record highs.
DJ +177 (26067)
SP +25 (3170)
NS +149 (10,492)
R2 +11 (1427)
WTI $40.79
10y/tb 0•657%

Nos: Oil $43.28. Vix 28.
Gold $1821. Palm $675.
$1.263. € 1.111. IDR 14411.
FF +50. DF+48
Morning all.

Back in the day when I had little to do but twiddle my thumbs and play golf my father got me interested in buying stocks. I'm going back a very long way to the 1960s. He gave me £10 to invest and I bght 10 shares in Thorn Electrial (I liked the lamps in their shops) or it could have been National Provincial Bank or REA just kidding..., whatever I got the bug as I must have made money so was set on a course to be interested in the stock market ever since.

This was in the days when my rent was £2.0.0 a week (1960s money) and my wage c.£8 per wk. A half of bitter, no one drank pints in those days was less than 3p our money in the (Ship?) my local opposite the Honkers Bank in Gracechurch St along with the Jamaica Inn round the corner. It was 6 half pints in the 30 mins lunch break. We rushed drinking in those days.

Departing for Malaya, I spent 10 years there pre Malayanisation where I kept up my interest in the Malaya stock market. I remember doing very well in Hong Kong Land among other tips from Chinese Towakys (bosses) who were liberal in telling you what to buy at the poker table while trying to steal your money. They did have the inside straight on what to put me the young 'orange puteh' (white man) into. As it turned out one of the regulars (ex Harrow) was the No 1 son of the Sultan of Kelantan and became my best buddy and golf partner for many years. We 'played' in far off places as far afield as Macau and Papua New Guinea and but for the lack of money I missed out on buying a plot of land adjacent to the pre the new KL international Airport.

I relate this as I bumped into a Dulwich Golf Club member, unbeknown to me who had been out in Malaya during the Emergency (late 50s). We swopped stories over several pints. Hope I have not bored you with a trip down memory lane as it just goes to show you never know who your going to bump into. Several years ago i met up with 'rugs' who posts here and has been all over the Far East, Arabia, the World and Saaarf London. He is a "Go Eagles" lifelong fan but does not play golf!
Afternoon all.

I think investors & prospective investors in REA should ask themselves two simple questions. First, am I buying a 'good thing' at a better price? Secondly is the stock selling at a large discount to prices it would fetch in a sale transaction? If you answer yes to both it's a buy.
Other considerations can be put on the backburner in these covid-19 times for valuation metrics have gone out of the window. In time we will start looking at earnings rates on capital employed, EVs, Book values etc..

One stat that most agree on is palm will be in ready demand for years to come as population growth continues ever upwards and supply could be constricted as new plantings are hamstrung by Govts diktat.
That will be good for cpo prices helped by biodiesel reaching B50+ By then we should be over covid-19 which has little impacted REAs plantation business to date.
However there are drawbacks, increased cpo prices make blending into biofuel less attractive without Govt support so it's a fine balance to juggle but one I think supports staying here.
You could make a case for buying the Prefs as the div arrears stack up and will eventually be paid.

Covid-19
05:30
GMT
Total cases 11,954,944
China 83,572 +7
Total deaths 546,720
China 4634.

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 3,097,084 (133,972)
UK 286,349 (44391)*
Indonesia 66,226 (3309)
Malaysia 8674 (121)

* 155 deaths yesterday
* 581 infections
* 4218 cases per 1m pop
* 654 deaths per 1m pop
* 10•8m total tests
* 159k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 11,954,944
New cases 12,826
Total deaths 546,720
New deaths 1065
Recovered 6•9m (58%)

While the wider mrkt suffered a bout of profit taking and nervousness about the speed of the equity recovery, the Dow fell 200 mid morning tracking declines in Asia and Europe. Tesla stormed ahead hitting $1429 before investors snatched profits taking the stock back to $1368 but Amazing cont its run to $1363 in early deals. Techs were in the black up c.60 thanks to Msoft & Apple.
As you'd expect when the Dow falls Airlines come under pressure, American off 4%, United 6% & Southwest down 3%. Stores tumbled Gap and Khol both falling 3% and Shake Shack reported Q2 sales nos down 49%. Investors baled out of cruise companies concerned the virus is getting out of hand and delays to the sailing season.

Virus counters were in the news, Novavax up 34% in pre-mrkt after reporting it had rec'd $1.6bn in funding from the Federal Govt under the Warp Speed corona-v vaccine program. It was the largest grant to date. The stock is ahead c.2000% this year. Also getting help was Regeneron a $450m grant for its double antibody ****tail being tested against covid-19. News of a new flu strain (G4) carried by pigs has been found in China and has the potential to become a pandemic warned the WHO (the Smithsonian beg to differ). NY has delayed 'phase 3' re-opening due to infection spikes and the WHO saying 'the worst is yet to come'

Banks and Boeing were among the worst big board performers going into the lunchtime break.
Boeing and Amex contributed to a 68 points drag on the 30 and at the close no change Boeing anchored at the bottom off $9 to $179. Hertz fell 7% to $1.36 as its dawning on investors that they do not own the fleet of cars and are not generating enough cash to service its $4.3bn debt. A rescue of Hertz looks like a 1,000,000/1 shot.
The 500 fell 34 at close, 10/11 of its sectors were negative. A 260 fall in the final hour by the DJ sealed a poor days trading. BOA reported its clients were net sellers of stocks for the 2nd conseq week.
At close:
DJ -397 (25890)
SP -34 (3145)
NS -90 (10,344)
R2 -27 (1416)
WTI $40.54
10y/tb 0•651%

Nos: Oil $42.94. Vix 29.
Gold $ 1805. Palm $669.
$1.255. €1.113. IDR 14434
MSCI(W) 537. FF-45. DF -30.
Morning all.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 11,744,397
China 83,565 +8
Total deaths 540,764
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 3,040,833 (132,979)
UK 285,768 (44,236)
Indonesia 64,958 (3241)
Malaysia 8668 (121)

* 16 deaths yesterday
* 352 infections
* 4209 cases per 1m pop
* 652 deaths per 1m pop
* 10•7m total tests
* 157k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 11,744,397
New cases 11,401
Total deaths 540,764
New deaths 627
Recovered 6•7m (57%)

Yea I did add a few more 'pink gin' shares today before they go lower as they most surely will as I chase the price ever downwards.
But the 1 share was not me. Who ever that was doesn't seem to be having much luck in getting stock if that's the code. I have a little ammo left for my last buy sub 50.

Stocks shook off the rising corona-v infections in many US States at the opening bell.
The Dow busted up over 300 at the bell. Amazon cleared $3000, Tesla jumped $125 to $1325 as techs stole a march on the wider mrkt. This following news that China had urged citizens to buy stocks as a matter of patriotism. The Chinese do as they are told despite the huge unemployment they spend there diminishing savings on stocks urged on by the influential state media.

Early advices saw buyers outstripping sellers by 2:1 overall 1877 up/992 down thanx to the FAANGs of which Netflix is poised to cont its strong run due to digital platforms of the stay at home 'signing ups' this year. The Nsdq composite hit an intraday high of 10400....where China ventures the US follows much to Trumps dismay....... despite him railing against Bidens policies of taxing the 'man in the street' and causing Americans (401k)s value to fall Biden is still favoured to win the election in November.

Boeing up $8 ($187) led the Dow higher along with JPMC, Amex, Apple & McD on a day when nobody was selling or wanted to be short stocks. Earlier Asia had seen stocks surging, HK up 1000 at one time set the standard for Europe to follow, Londons ftse closing at 6286 up 129.
Individual stocks, corona-v excepted which were unmoved saw Airlines gain c.3% across the board with cruise stocks mixed Royal Carribean adding 1%. Hertz slipped 5c to $1.45 clinging on in vain hope of being rescued from the breakers yard, still attracting hopeful pis to chance their arm. At the close the 500 was up for the 5th straight and techs posted a record close.
DJ +460 (26,287)
SP +50 (3180)
NS +226 (10,434)
R2 +11 (1443)
WTI $40.51
10y/tb 0•673%

Nos: Oil $42.90. Vix 28.
Gold $1795. Palm $671.
$1.250. €1.105. IDR 14435
MSCI(W) 542. FF -17. DF -94.
Morning all.

Those 'sell in May' & go away come back on St Leger day (Sept) are nursing big losses to date. The ftse has gained 4% and the All Share 7%. In years gone by it was quite a popular strategy as the landed gentry returned to their Baronial Halls for the summer and business took a back seat to horse racing and the like.
In recent years the strategy is a failing one. Here's the proof.

2010 -0.3%
2011 -8%
2012 +1%
2013 +10%
2014 +7%
2015 -0.3%
2016 +2%
2017 +8%
2018 +2.4%
2019 +3%

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 11,559,213
China 83,557 +4
Total deaths 536,786
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,982,928 (132,569)
47,158 new cases
251 new deaths

UK 285,416 (44,220)*
* 22 deaths yesterday
* 516 infections
* 4204 cases per 1m pop
* 651 deaths per 1m pop
* 10•5m total tests
* 155k tests per 1m pop
* 15% fatality rate.

Indonesia 63,749 (3171)
Malaysia 8663 (121)

Summary
Total cases 11,559,213
New cases 8671
Total deaths 536,786
New deaths 341
Recovered 6•5m (57%)

Shares in Asia continued up following the US jobs report data. Shanghai blue chips led the way over 10% better in last 2 wks pushing the SHCOMP to a 4 month high adding 4% (133) this morning with MSCIs Asia Pacific index up 1%. Tokyo gained 306, HK 707 & SK added 29 in morning trade.

Even the ASX 200 is up (7) despite a spike of infections (127) in Victoria reported on Monday. The border between NSW & Victoria will close on Tuesday. There are 55 crossing points between the two States which makes it extremely difficult to monitor and with over 50,000 daily car movements only permit holders will be allowed to cross. Several Tower blocks in Melbourne are in total 5 day lockdown mode to allow all residents to be tested for corona-v.
At 12:45 JST
TK +318
HK +793
SH +133
SHZ +63
SK +31

Nos: Oil $43.04. Vix 28.
Gold $1781. Palm $667.
$1.249.€ 1.107. IDR 14523
MSCI(W) 532. FF +98. DF +454.
Morning all.

Covid-19
05:30
GMT
Total cases 11,382,954
China 83,553 +8
Total deaths 533,477
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,935,770 (132,318)??
?? 45,182 new cases
?? 217 new deaths

UK 284,900 (44198)*
* 67 Deaths
* 624 infections
* 4196 cases per 1m pop
* 651 deaths per 1m pop
* 10•3m total tests
* 152k tests per 1m pop
* 15•5% fatality rate

Indonesia 62,142 (3089)
Malaysia 8658 (121)

Summary
Total cases 11,382,954
New cases 10,752
Total deaths 533,477
New deaths 613
Recovered 6•5m (57%)
Morning all.

REA vols since sp crash on 30/4. All vols are (c.)

Wk 18 (4.350m)
Wk 19 (283,000)
Wk 20 (386,800)
Wk 21 (713,000)
Wk 22 (345,380)
Wk 23 (489,340)
Wk 24 (330,630)
Wk 25 (81,850)
Wk 26 (185,000)
Wk 27 (108,000)

Couldn't swear to the nos being 100% accurate but a good enough indication. The previous 10 wks averaged c.28,100 per wk against c.727,000 for the following 10 flattered by the 4.352m. Take that out and the av drops to c.325,000 still more than 10× wks (8-17).

I think it would be safe to say the next 10 wks av vols are likely to drop back considerably, my guess below 100k a week. Over the period wks 8-17 the sp fell 60 and wks 18-27 fell 39 to current 54.

My gut feeling is the sp is marooned here this year. It's going to take something startling to move into the near 100s
by year end, thing is I cannot think what will do it. Results? Nah. We need a catalytic converter, a turbo to boost the sp. Ring me if you know of such.

Enjoy your first visit to your local hostelry, bookings are being taken in some pubs in my area and several are 'sold out'
for chrissssakes! Think I'm going to swerve the madness this wk end.
Morning all.

Covid-19
04:00
GMT

Total cases 11,191,681
China 83,545 +3
Total deaths 529,127
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 2,890,588• (132,101)•
• 53,399 new cases
• 616 new fatalities

UK 284,276 (44,131)*
Indonesia 60,695 (4700)
Malaysia 8648 (121)

* 136 deaths yesterday
* n/a
* 4187 cases per 1m pop
* 650 deaths per 1m pop
* 10•1m total tests
* 149k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 11,191,681
New cases 9105
Total deaths 529,127
New deaths 718
Recovered 6•3m (56%)