Member Info for JohnLewis79

COVID-19
04:30
GMT

Total cases 10,243,859
China 83,512 +12
Total deaths 504,410
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,637,077 (128,437)
UK 311,511 (43,550)*
Indonesia 54,010 (2754)
Malaysia 8634 (121)

* 236 deaths yesterday
* 1261 infections
* 4584 cases per 1m pop
* 642 deaths per 1m pop
* 9•2m total tests
* 135k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 10,243,859
New cases 5572
Total deaths 504,410
New deaths 332
Recovered 5•6m (55%)

Covid-19
06:00
GMT

Total cases 10,068,969
China 83,500 +17
Total deaths 501,393
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 2,596,537 (128,152)
UK 310,250 (43,514)*
Indonesia 52,812 (2720)
Malaysia 8616 (121)

* 100 deaths yesterday
* 890 infections
* 4570 cases per 1m pop
* 641 deaths per 1m pop
* 9•1m total tests
* 134k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 10,086,969
New cases 11,854
Total deaths 501,393
New deaths 767
Recovered 5•5m (55%)

Wks 1-26 nos for equities, commodities etc and +/- to date.

REA (-111) 66%
Anglo (-82) 14%
Dkl (-1.3) 36%
Epa (-0.375) 50%
Mpe (-171) 24%
**
Cpo (-$89) 11%
Cpko (-$77) 10%
KLPI (-1073) 14%
FP (-1692) 21%
**
MSCI(W) (-49) 9%
**
Ftse (-1383) 18%
AS (-790) 19%
250 (-4771) 22%
SC (-921) 15%
Aim (75) 9%
**
DJ (-3523) 12%
SP (-222) 7%
NS (+784) 9%
R2 (-289) 17%
**
TK (-1145) 5%
HK (-3640) 13%
SH (-70) 2%
SHZ (+252) 13%
SK (-66) 3%
JSX -22%
STI -19%
ASX200 -12%
**
£$ -7%
£€ -7%
IDR +3%
10y/tb -127%
**
Brent (-$25) 38%
WTI (-$14) 27%
Gold (+$256) 17%
Silver (+39c) 2%
**
Morning all.

A good shake out on Monday could loosen more weak holders. My sub 60 came sooner than expected. I resisted buying yesterday as I see low 50's this week or next.
Sentiment is shot so maybe I can catch the falling knife as next week is not looking too healthy.

A mrkt cap of £22m or £220m makes little diff I'm buying purely on the sp nos, so 50p relates to 50p not some useless £20m mrkt value which is meaningless as I have no idea how to analyse the £20m value. What part of REA is worth £20m? Is it 3,550 planted ha? That fits the £20m bill the rest (33,000) in for free along with plant, coal and stone).
Too good to be true? It is atm. However beware gift horses they usually need a run or are too knackered to be worth anything. Your guess as to which applies here.
I'm going with a run but my judgement is flawed having bght initially up in the 100's, I'm now chasing the sp ever lower.

Covid-19
06:30
GMT

Total cases 9,910,068
China 83,483 +21
Total deaths 496,991
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 2,552,956 (127,640)
UK 309,360 (43,414)*
Indonesia 51,427 (2683)
Malaysia 8606 (121)

* 333 deaths yesterday
* 1380 infections
* 4557 cases per 1m pop
* 640 deaths per 1m pop
* 8•9m total tests
* 131k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 9,910,068
New cases 11,521
Total deaths 496,991
New deaths 912
Recovered 5•4m (55%)

What's good for cpo ain't for REA as you'd suspect. While cpo ($710) lost 1.25% on the wk REA (56) tanked 14% and has slipped back since the positively 'cautious' update, exactly as did MPE. Good news is bad for share prices especially palm ones, you knew that didn't you?

Cpo ytd averages between $653* & $683* ($531) down from $800 at beginning of year. From my calcs H2 2019 averaged $610 and overall for the year $570. That's the good news as to date barring corona-v getting totally out of hand (20m global infections?) then worst way its a $100 increase in cpo prices and with fixed-ish costs should go straight to the bottom line. Not in REAs case as we well know....wait for write-downs, exceptionals etc...

* closing prices vary...

Rising coronavirus cases spooked mrkts on Friday the Dow slumping to 25112 soon after the bell as news out of Texas was unremittingly bad, restrictions on social gatherings, bars to close forthwith, hospitals at capacity and could be overwhelmed as 6400 new cases were reported yesterday. Texas and Florida have become the new epicentres of the virus. Across the Country there were 37,000 new infections reported on Thursday making over 2.5m cases, 126,680 deaths in total to date.
In Europe C.Lagarde the President of the EU Bank said the worst of the pandemic may have passed. Eurozone GDP has contracted 8•7% for 2020 thereafter growth of 5•2% (2021) & 3•3% (2022).

All 11 sectors of the S&P were in the red, down the bottom of the table Nike, Goldman, Boeing, Amex, J&J and Intel. No black nos. Stocks in focus were Nike a 4Q loss, sales down 38% but on line revs up 75% and now make up 33% of sales, stock off $6 to ($95). Amazon buying self drive car outfit Zoox for $1bn shares off $9 ($2475) and Gap jumped 28% ($13) announcing a tie up with hip hop star Kanye West. Msoft is closing all its physical stores. Luckin Coffee got the red card from Nsdq HQ shares tumbled 54% to $1.34 and Hertz was down 12% to $1.48 punters still looking for value.

Banks had a bad day falling on average 6%, Goldman (9%) at the bottom of the big board. Airlines recovered a tad from lows most off between 3% & 6% in the general sell off before the wk/end. Cruises down, R.Carribean 4% and Norwegian 4% it's not been a good week for Leisure stocks which react mostly to virus news as it's fair to say do most counters these days. Disney said its closing its theme parks indefinitely.

Having a very good day was little known biotech Company Vaaxart ($8.85) which is developing an oral vaccine told the mrkt it had been selected for the Govts Warp Speed virus project, shares rocketed 254% on the week valuing the Co north of $850m. Other coronav's were lower Novavax down 7%. Volumes on the DJIA were an average 249m traded at half time. The fall continued right up to the close for an 856 points fall on the week (3.3%).
DJ -730 (20,015)
SP -75 (3009)
NS -260 (9757)
R2 -35 (1379)
WTI $38.29
10y/tb 0•647%
MSCI(W) 516
Morning all.

With China closed for a holiday mrkts were quiet, 2 UP only HK lower & Pan Pacifics better. The late rally on the 'Street' set the days tone as easing of the Volcer rule was seen as a positive move by the Fed.

After hours the Fed ordered 34 of the bigest Banks to cease 'buy backs' and suspend dividend payouts till Sept in order to boost cash balances. In a worse case scenario the Banks would lose $750bn but at present were strong enough to withstand the current crisis.
At 1:40 pm JST.
TK +300
HK -140
SH closed
SHZ closed
SK +29

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 9,714,805
China 83,462 +13
Total deaths 491,856
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,504,588 (126,780)
UK 307,980 (43,230)*
Indonesia 50,187 (2620)
Malaysia 8600 (121)

* 149 deaths yesterday
* 1118 infections
* 4537 cases per 1m pop
* 637 deaths per 1m pop
* 8•7m total tests
* 128k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 9,714,805
New cases 12,419
Total deaths 491,856
New deaths 867
Recovered 5.3m (54%)

With the pandemic still on going Jobless claims came in at a worse than expected 1.48m and since mid March new claims now total 47m. Add that to the 3rd report on Q1 GDP coming as it does after yesterdays sell off of 700 points will see a big fall on the Dow at open.
The virus is the main talking point as California recorded 7100 new cases which was a record and awful nos from Florida & Arizona of over 5000 new infections and Texas halts reopening of businesses on fears of a second wave you have the recipe for a poor start to the day.

Wall St is desperate for a vaccine and until one is available these 1000 point moves up and down will continue. On the technical front the DJIA mrkt breadth shows a drop in bullish momentum as only 27% of stocks trade above their 200DMA the 500 has 34%. London opened lower but has cut early 60 point losses to just 13 at 2:00pm despite terrible retail sales nos down 37% which improved on May's 50% drop.

Dow futures have bottomed out now 118 lower. At open the fall was limited to 237 the usual suspects among the losers. The easing of the Volcker rule named after Paul Volcker a former Fed Reserve Chairman by the FDIC which prevented Banks investing their own money in hedge and private equity funds, saw rises of 2%-3% in JPMC, Amex and Citi leading to a 280 turnaround in the indices. The regulation was put in place following the '08/'09 crash. Banks are going through the 'stress' tests at present. In early dealings Airlines were little changed and cruises undecided which way to move. Hertz up 13c to $1.74 and Luckin Coffee off 14c to $3.00. Novavax
led the vaccine counters up 8% to $73, Merck flat at $76 the others Moderna off $2 at $63 and Gilead losing a buck at $85. Disney slipped a $1.50 having to delay the opening of its theme park in Florida.

In the final hour the 30 put on 250 on further considerations but more States reporting spikes and the CDC saying it's likely 20m Americans have been infected, 10x more than present has yet to be fully absorbed.
DJ +300 (25,746)
SP +33 (3084)
NS +108 (10,017)
R2 +24 (1413)
WTI $39.36
10y/tb 0•677%

Nos: Oil $41.63. Vix 32.
Gold $1770. Palm $720.
$ 1.243. €1.107. IDR14255
PI 6705. FP 6457.
MSCI(W) 524. FF +59 DF -31
Morning all.

Thought we were in for a period of boredom the fun and games of early May over with but surprise surprise vols are up on last week (104k/81k). Of course has no bearing on the sp, tracking sideways in the main an occasional buy moving the ask. Getting near my next purchase of sub 60 which I feel will happen before 4/7th.
*I'll raise a glass if it does*
* Cheers!*

In 2019 Indonesia and Malaysia lost less primary forest cover than the year before according to Global Forest Watch.
As in past years Brazil lost the most forest cover around 1.36mha. The DRC came next with 465kha, Indonesia with 324kha and Malaysia lost 120kha.
Indonesia has turned the corner in its efforts to reduce deforestation GFW said. Recent moratoriums on new land clearing for plantations and stricter Govt regulations are proving successful.

The only country that lost more primary cover in 2019 (38%) was Cambodia, due to logging and rubber concessions being doled out by the Govt to agri businesses in the Central Prey Long Forest a protected area.

Covid-19
06:00
GMT

Total cases 9,532,128
China 83,449 +19
Total deaths 485,122
China 4634

Countries (213)
(Selected)

USA 2,462,554 (124,281)
UK 306,862 (43,081)*
Indonesia 49,009 (2573)
Malaysia 8596 (121)

* 154 deaths yesterday
* 652 infections
* 4521 cases per 1m pop
* 635 deaths per 1m pop
* 8•6m total tests
* 126k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 9,532,128
New cases 12,646
Total deaths 485,122
New deaths 1163
Recovered 5•2m (55%)

If I asked you which Automotor Co was the most valuable in the world odds you would say a Japanese car company or VW. Well, you would be wrong. It's a start up company that saw the light of day 15 years ago.
A highly unfashionable, way ahead of it's time, electric motorcar Co called Tesla. Founded by E. Musk and testament to his foresight and determination that its valued much more than Ford Motor which had a 117 year start. Now valued at $185bn more than Toyota $176bn, VW $84bn and Honda $45bn. Some achievement and Wall St agrees pushing the stock up from $430 to over $1000 this year. Electric is the future, Nikola an electric truck firm and likely you have never heard of it is worth more than Ford Motor ($24bn) and has not had one truck drive out of the plant. Orders yes, trucks no such is the power of anything electric.

If it's okay for motor cars to go all electric the Street itself has joined the revolution now fully automated, jobbers or specialists on the NYSE floor are more for the TV cameras than actual face to face trading have bowed to the advances in technology. Today the all electric Dow is looking sick off nearly 300 pre opening on IMF downgrading global growth, expecting dealers to trim positions after recent rises and weakness in Europe. The ftse off 145 mid morning on fears the US will put tariffs on a whole raft of European exports to the tune of $3bn. No bad thing for stocks to take a breather. Dow was off 246 at the bell below the 26000 level led by FAANGs and assorted Nsdq Composites. Dell rose 14% on news it's looking at options for its 81% stake in VMWare worth $50bn by either buying out the rest or a spin off.

Airlines and leisure are the first sectors to go cold along with Cruises. Royal Carribean hit by sellers and a Barclays downgrade fell 10% to $49, Norwegian 11% to $16 & Carnival 10% to $16. Penn National a big gainer yesterday slipped 9% to $33. Airlines fell 8% across the major carriers. Hertz jumped 60% to $2.03 as sports bettors kicked the stock higher saying there could still be value. Even Luckin Coffee found buyers adding 13% to $3.16. I guess the ball just jumped from red to black a lucky spin for the day traders. On the big board Boeing, Dow inc, Disney & Raytheon led the decliners there were no risers at all at mid session.

The background noise is all virus related, infection increases across the country were making the news headlines and Wall is slowly waking up to the possibility of lockdowns being reimposed, strongly resisted by Trump and Republican Governors. News out of Beijing where c.3m have been tested since the spike 10 days ago confirmed suspicions corona-v is here to stay. The mrkt took a dim view and slumped over 700 on the day with not a bull in sight.
DJ -710 (25446)
SP -81 (3050)
NS -220 (9909)
R -50 (1390)
WTI $37.86
10y/tb 0•671%

Nos $40.06. Vix 34.
Gold $1774. Palm $709.
$1.241. €1.104. IDR 14191
PI 6725. FP 6480. MSCI(W) 521.
FF -26. DF -76.

If this hits 70 before my local opens its doors I shall tap dance my way there. That's in 11 days time. That's a very safe bet.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

Total cases 9,359,278
China 83,430 +12
Total deaths 479,879
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,424,418 (123,475)
UK 306,210 (42,927)*
Indonesia 47,896 (2535)
Malaysia 8590 (121)

* 280 deaths yesterday
* 921 infections
* 4511 cases per 1m pop
* 632 deaths per 1m pop
* 8•3m total tests
* 122k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 9,359,278
New cases 13,709
Total deaths 479,879
New deaths 2
Recovered 5•0m (54%)

The confusion over Peter Navarros comments re China which had tanked Dow futures 400 was set straight when Trump tweeted " the deal is fully intact, China will continue to live up to the terms" In other China news Trump has temporarily blocked high skilled foreign nationals entering the USA seeking top tech jobs. Those will be filled by Americans come what may.
The Dow liked both pieces of news and jumped 200 from the gun led up by techs especially Apple as it paraded a whole set of new products at its WWDC on line conference and retailers hoping consumers will be back spending on the High St.

Airlines took a turn for the worse following Americans offering of 74.1m shares at $13.50 a pop and $1bn of 6.50% lc/notes maturing 2025 shares down 6%. United, Jet Blue and SW all off 3% early on. Hotels, Resorts & cruises were steady. Marriott down $1 ($89) and Wynn Resorts up $1 to $84. Penn National a casino and race track operator said 30/41 properties were up and running shares leapt 15% to $36. Hertz was hammered again dropping 14% to $1.20 and ex punter fave Luckin Coffee fell 16% to $2.66 both on life support machines. I expect both to stagger on till either punter apathy or the mrkt pulls the plug on these two who have overstayed their welcome. Oils were boosted by demand factors an upsurge in freight and passenger traffic boosting petrol consumption pushed WTI up 50c to $41.22.

Corona-vs were mixed only Novavax gaining $3 to $69 as 4/5 analysts rate the stock a Buy and Merck whose antiviral oral drug is under appreciated also gained 2% to $78. In Europe French pharma Sanofi (€93) said its potential vaccine was on the runway waiting approval and could be in use by latter part of 2021.
Banks were in demand on economic recovery hopes led up by JPMC ($98). On the downside Boeing rooted at the bottom lost $5 ($184) there's no middle ground with Boeing a most bizarre trading counter.

As London closed the Dow was 198 ahead, boosted by techs, Nsdq Comp up 100 to an intraday record of (10,195). Apple another high ($371) and the 500 up 35 (3153). Surging corona-v cases in 50% of States are not yet causing alarm. The mrkt has chosen to ignore the recent data blamed on more testing. It's a forest fire not a second wave that people should worry about said an expert. Having gone for an early reopening Trump cannot be seen to backtrack, he's toast if he does. It's a huge gamble one that puts his two term election hopes on a knife edge. The Dow
Closed well off 26316 high but a solid days gain given the concerns for jobs, the economy and health issues.
DJ +131 (26156)
SP +13 (3131)
NS +75 (10,131)
R2 +6 (1439)
WTI $40.08
10y/tb 0.717%

Nos: Oil $42.46. Vix 31.
Gold $1784. Palm 732.
$1.251. €1.106. IDR 14140
PI 6782. FP 6658. MSCI(W) 533.
FF -35. DF +31.
Morning all.

Bit of interest early on the moves if any around the spread. Not wot the Doc ordered!

Hi comeonv...oh yes they should be open now! Goodness knows whether they will go back to previous levels given the breakeven for most pubs is c.£8-10k a week! Many will never return. My local has a hard core
fan club of drinkers and bettors so is in a fairly good position to survive. My local newsagent will see a big drop off in his beer takings that's for sure!

Better in Asia and Pan Pacifica this morning following the tech rally on the Street overnight.
Stocks with a strong on line presence are being bid up in case infections continue to spread unchecked.
At Tokyo close.
TK +115
HK +192
SH +1
SHZ +6
SK +5
Ftse called 25 better at open and the Dow up 48.