Member Info for JohnLewis79

Cpo had a good week up $39 to $690 and averaging $649 for the year. A better wk than REA stock that's for sure which gained 7 pence an underwhelming response to the trading update.

Kinda par for the course in these mrkts and best to realise gains are going to be hard won. Take today c.41,600 buys and 14,500 sells and n/c to the sp. We know that's not a driver of sp gains, it is of losses, we know good news does nothing and bad news is a killer and this is the irrational market investors have to deal with. Are the bases loaded? Is there any point in trying to fathom sp moves when they do the opposite of rational expectations?
No use beating oneself up, REA has advanced but not as quick as we might like and that's half the bloody problem. Is REA half full or half empty? Solve that riddle and save yourself a lot of heartaches and sleepless nights.

I'm def on the half full side but am prepared to wait for a full glass, that's another 100 to get back to Jan 1st share price of 168. The going will have to be on the good to fast side to reach that number, as currently the Clerk of the Course says its slow to heavy going but a brighter outlook.

Bofp calcs Cpo HY av for 2020 $684 ($531) without the wobble in April could have nudged $700. Achieved will be different but the % increase prob the same.
Should boost the bottom line with other cost savings. Currencies look neutral to perhaps negative but not the order of $16m, that would really screw up the nos.
Def going the right way needs to be supported by crude which has demand supply imbalances atm.

The ftse jump since May 1st of 320 looks like losing another 100 today on back of Walls 1861 tank and lower Far Eastern advices.
TK -167
HK -252
SH +6
SK -43
JSX -23
KLC1 -21
STI -45
TAIEX -113
ASX -105
Oils, Techs and Miners were sold off the region posting a small loss on the week.

Covid-19
06:00
GMT

Total cases 7,597,348
China 83,064 +7
Total deaths 423,846
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,089,701 (116,034)
Brazil 805,649 (41,058)
Russia 502,436 (6532)
UK 291,409 (41,279)*
Spain 289,787 (27,136)
Italy 236,142 (34,167)
Germany 186,795 (8851)
France 155,561 (29,346)
Indonesia 35,295 (2000)
Malaysia 8369 (118)

* 151 deaths yesterday
* 1266 infections
* 4294 cases per 1m pop
* 608 deaths per 1m pop
* 6.24m total tests
* 92k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 7,597,348
New cases 13,440*
Total deaths 423,846
New deaths 760**
Recovered 3.842m (51%)

* 6397 Pakistan
* 4790 Mexico
* 884 Bolivia

** 587 Mexico
** 107 Pakistan
** 21 Bolivia

Evil K'nievel is reasonably confident buying a goodly slug of REA Prefs at 59. Divvy arrears amount to 13/14p yielding 15%....nice if you get paid out this year.

Sells c.39,000 topped buys c.32,000 yesterday at prices from 65 to 68 a healthy 8% av gain on the session. Loose holders were more than happy.
Volumes to date c.272,500
well down on last weeks near 500,000. Slightly disappointing given the good update which was a bit light on the 'nitty gritty' but pointed to a much better looking H1.

However the share price has gained nearly 20p (41%) since the flash crash, so not too shabby if you were in down there! It's a Friday so no fireworks today. I will be happy-ish to consolidate around this level as the next move up might be 'ways-away.'

The recent outbreak of civil unrest may have caused the spike in corona-v infections due to mass gatherings at protest meets. Twenty States have reported infection increases. Perhaps not quite a 'Second Wave' but bad enough to give the Dow a bad case of the 'squitters'. Not helping sentiment was a report from the IHME forecasting virus deaths could hit 170,000 by Oct,1st.
The Dow opened 836 lower soon after the 'Bell' and most sectors are much lower led by energy, industrials, travel and Leisure as further thoughts on the Feds 'reality check' recipe sent investors for the exits. Far Eastern and European bourses were all down by c.3% taking the Feds bearish tone on the duration of the US recovery to heart.

If you look at the S&P500 around 70% were trading above their 10Dma, 96% above the 50Dma & 49% above their 200Dma the last at (26,316) That's a strong base for stocks. So should a break through the 200Dma occur stocks could head down to the 22,000 level in double quick time.
Jobless claims came in at 1.54m signing on last week hugely down from the 7m in March. Also 706,000 applied for Federal Relief (those not applicable in the 1.54m claimants queue).
The bigger picture of 47m new claims being filed these last 3 months is probably worse due to the huge nos of fcku ups in the reporting and numbers overlapping.

Early losers, Boeing of course down 13%, Dow, Cat & Exxon all c.7% and just one in the black Wallmart up 1%.
Airlines suffered in the melee of falling quotes, American off 11%, Delta down 9% & United & Jet
Blue lost 11% & 8% both lower due to Broker down- grades and reduced flight schedules.
Hertz stumbled, 18% wiped off the casino chip to $2.06. Luck in Coffee 'lucks out' down 16% to $3.30 and vaccine counters Moderna up 6% Gilead off 2%, Novavax u/c & J&J down $4 ($144) were one of the better sectors. Cruises were hammered, Carnival fell 15%, Norwegian 16% & Caribbean 14%. Crude lost 8% in the commodities sell off, Gold an exception up $24 to $1748 early on.

The fall was relentless all session. One has to wonder what it was Powell said that upset the mrkt so much? Of the 500 only Kroger the Grocer gained (I think I'll follow Kroger the Grocer). Most knew at ground level the economy was in serious trouble so was it a correction blowing away speculative froth? Given how quickly mrkts bounce back it probably was. Treasury Sec Mnuchin said " the economy will stay open, we will pump in a $trillion over the next month"
At close
DJ -1861 (25,128) 7%
SP -188 (3002) 6%
NS -528 (9493) 7%
R2 -111(1356) 8%
WTI $35.12
10y/tb 0.689%

Nos Oil $37.58. Vix 41.
Gold $1732. Palm $683.
$1.256. €1.112. IDR 14227
PI 6747. FP 6459. MSCI(W) 515.
FF -45. DF +320.
Morning all.

Bid 63....hell you coulda got that yesterday! Underwhelming to say the least. Think my 72 is on the high side!

Sign of confidence paying 4 over the ask (15714).

See if vols buy or sell pick up after AGM which should be around 11:00 am...ish. The spread doesn't help much. I guess it will put off the in/out merchants. Sticking to my 72 tops.

Have to say you guys are a lot more positive on the sp than myself being an old sourpus. I'm afraid I dont believe the mrkt rewards good news as it should preferring the doom' n gloom. Hope I'm wrong but sp today no higher than 72 imo regardless of being a recovery play which it surely is we will tread water. The initial enthusiasm has brought out sellers 25,000 v 7,000 buys.
A nice bonus for the day traders.

Solid set of nos, i like the increase in achieved prices of c.$110pt cpo and overall increases everywhere. The AGM is being held today and often shares go up or fall following the meeting. A positive if cautionary
tale from the Board one of which I approve.

For a change last trade 300 at 65.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT
Total cases 7,458,646
China 83,057 +11
Total deaths 419,020
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,066,401 (115,130)
Brazil 775,184 (39,797)
Russia 493,657 (6358)
UK 290,143 (41,128)*
Spain 289,360 (27,136)
Italy 235,763 (34,114)
Germany 186,866 (8844)
France 155,136 (29,319)
Indonesia 34,316 (1959)
Malaysia 8338 (118)

* 245 deaths yesterday
* 1003 infections
* 4275 cases per 1m pop
* 606 deaths per 1m pop
* 6m total tests
* 89k tests per 1m pop
* 14% fatality rate

Summary
Total cases 7,458,646
New cases 12,417*
Total deaths 419,020
New deaths 883**
Recovered 3.752m (50%)

* 4883 Mexico
* 5834 Pakistan
* 637 Bolivia

** 708 Mexico
** 101 Pakistan
** 25 Bolivia

Much will depend on head honcho Powells determination to cont to use all available tools to drag the US economy out of recession. Convincing the mrkt should be fairly easy this afternoon as the economy is only just showing signs of life.
He wont want to spoil the mrkts perception that but for the Feds immediate action in March buying Treasuries, Mortgage Bonds and ballooning the balance sheet to support families, equities might well have been sub 18,000 and a full scale panic in progress. So the Feds view on GDP, inflation & unemployment will be poured over.
Dow futures are now trading 20 lower after 160 better the thinking being a) the World Bank have stolen his thunder and b) Powell might just play a steady as she goes hand as the locker is empty. It's a fine balancing act he has to perform considering the massive debt accumulated.

Boeing, Banks & Oils took the Dow 170 lower at the Bell with Apple-techs past 10,000 courtesy of FAANGs. The CPI nos dropped to 0.01% effectively zero from a yearly rate of 2.4% due to declines in food, petrol & motor insurance. *Hertz has rec'd a delisting note from the NYSE which is being appealed. Hertz said there can be no assurance the NYSE will grant the Co a listing or whether there will be any equity value in the Common. Pending the decision the sp is down 27% ($3.00) in early dealings.
Airlines initially fell 10% across the board, easy pickings for holders to bank decent gains and cyclical were sold off, Cruises came under selling pressure *Carnival ($21) & *Royal Caribbean ($64) both fell 8% on profit taking after recent rises and *Norwegian (seen as the runt of the litter) sank 11% to ($21.50). Wynn Resorts lost $2 ($101). Hotel stocks *Hilton ($84) and *MGM ($21) lost a couple of bucks each and *Marriott down $3 ($104).

Co news *Starbucks fell 4% ($78.76) on a $2.2bn decline in revs for current Q and *Just Eat (857p) the Amsterdam based firm confirmed it was to merge with *Grubhub shares u/c ($57.95) in an all share deal giving it access to the lucrative US mrkt. *J&J a Dow constituent announced it was to start human trials of its covid-19 vaccine candidate shortly, shares up $2 ($148).
As London closed up shop the Dow was 171 lower but off session low of 334 awaiting Powells speech at 2:30pm Eastern.
He had little to say that mrkts had not already priced in, GDP to fall 6.5% rising 5% in 2021 and rates at zero through 2022 and lending to cont where needed. Disappointed equities fell back taking the Dow down 282 but the techs added 67 to 10,020. Apple top of the big board up 3% and Boeing the bottom down 6%.
DJ -282 (26990)
SP -17 (3190)
NS + 67 (10,020)
R2 -40 (1467)
WTI $38.36
10y/tb 0.076%

Nos Oil $40.55. Vix 28.
Gold $1742. Palm $683.
$1.270. €1.112. IDR 14042
PI 6853. FP 6673. MSCI(W) 540.
FF -85. DF -330.
Morning all.

No doubt REA has reached a wider audience since the flash crash to 49. Subsequently the Directors have been buying a good sign imo and I don't buy the cynics calls of " well, they would wouldn't they?" Actually no they don't have to, I've had shares in companies where the Director holding barely reached 1%.

Directors need insentivising and owning a goodly chunk is a sure fire way for them to keep their eyes on the ball and watch the pennies. Pis often forget that it's not a share you own per se but a % of the company, you are a part owner as opposed to owning a share certificate. There's a subtle difference.

Today has been disappointing with just 16276 traded (15,256 sells) by mid'day, some 40,000 less than yesterday as vols are normally higher in the pre lunch session. The wide 8% spread is hardly helping so investors are snatching their gains before someone else does.
Could be buyers and sellers have overindulge of late, so a period of quiet reflection is called for at least that's how I see it.
Perhaps the afternoon session will perk up if I could buy at 60 I'd add some more.

Yesterday last trade a 675 sell at 60.50 the highest price paid 64.55 for 2000. Volume was a healthy 62,000 of which c.70% were likely sells reversing the recent trend.
Total vol on a par with last wk at 181,000 as of Tue close.

Palm oil prices rose 3% (2397) ringgit its highest since March. Estimates are for a 40%-80% surge in June 1st-10th cpo exports.
Dalians most active soy oil contract rose 0.40% and cpo 1.55%. Palm tracks other veg oil prices as well as crude oils. Prices for palm oil have been on an upward path since early March and today have put on $3 to above $680.

No doubt REA share price will one day benefit by the cont rise in cpo for at the H/Y an expected av increase in the selling price of c.$120pt will easily beat H1 2019 figs ($29.5mL) which was hit by a negative $16m FX swing and lower cpo prices. Dare I say it a profit at the interim stage?

Stalling mrkts put the brake on Asia this morning as investors wait for the Fed report on the US economy later today.
A steep drop in machinery orders in April was priced in by Nikkei followers and lower than forecast inflation nos out of China barely moved Shanghai. Oils dropped back, WTI off at $38.22 for July delivery and the greenback gets you 107.8 Yen and 7.07 Yuan.
At 2:30 pm JST
TK +59
HK +64
SH -14
SK +6

Covid-19
06:00
GMT

Total cases 7,323,891
China 83,046 +3
Total deaths 413,734
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 2,045,549 (114,148)
Brazil 742,084 (38,497)
Russia 485,253 (6142)
UK 289,140 (40,883)*
Spain 289,046 (27,136)
Italy 235,561 (34,043)
Germany 186,516 (8831)
France 154,591 (29,296)
Indonesia 33,076 (1923)
Malaysia 8336 (117)

* 286 deaths yesterday
* 1741 infections
* 4260 cases per 1m pop
* 602 deaths per 1m pop
* 5.87m total tests
* 86.5k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 7,323,891
New cases 11,693*
Total deaths 413,733
New deaths 733**
Recovered 3.604m (49%)

* 5385 Pakistan
* 4199 Mexico
* 695 Bolivia

** 596 Mexico
** 83 Pakistan
** 22 Guatemala