Member Info for JohnLewis79

Asian mrkts took heart, Trumps muted comments on Friday... more bark than bite, they were fearing an Armageddon scenario whereby he was about to rein down missiles on China proved little more than a slap on the wrist. No scrapping of the Trade phase-one Deal and no sanctions against Chinese officials. Very Trumpian. Sighs of relief all round the Far East.

HK thought to be the main target for Trump's ire jumped 3% in morning trade (700) the Nikkei up 200 & Pan Pacifics all gaining. Economic data out of China was on the money, factory activity up and manufacturing beating expectations set the scene for a blue day on the markets even a 24% fall in SK exports sent the Kospi up 28.
At 1:30 pm JST
TK +176
HK +740
SH +56
SK +28

Nos: Oil $37.66. Vix 27.
Gold $1758. Palm $649
$1.238. €1.112. IDR 14587
PI 6763. MSCI(W) 509.
10y/tb 0.653%. FF+72.
DF +32.
Morning all.

Covid-19
04:00
GMT
Total cases 6,159,953
China 83,001 +2
Total deaths 371,006
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 1,816,820 (105,557)
Brazil 499,996 (28,849)
Russia 396,575 (4555)
Spain 286,308 (27,125)
UK 272,826 (38,376)*
Italy 232,664.(33,340)
France 188,625 (28,771)
Germany 183,827 (5185)
Indonesia 25,773 (1573)
Malaysia 7762 (115)

* 215 deaths yesterday
* 4021 cases per 1m pop
* 566 deaths per 1m pop
* 4.04m total tests
* 59.6k tests per 1m pop
* 14% fatality rate

Summary
Total cases 6,159,953
New cases 9470*
Total deaths 371,006
New deaths 500**
Recovered 2.739m (44%)

* 3039 Pakistan
* 2885 Mexico
* 1526 Brazil
* 861 Bolivia

** 364 Mexico
** 88 Pakistan
** 15 Brazil
** 10 Bolivia

World Exchanges Mrkt Cap as of April 2020.

Total value 89.5tn
NYSE 31.5%
NSDQ 14.5%
Japan 6.0%
Shanghai 5.5%
HK 5.0%
Euronext 4.3%
Shenzen 3.9%
LSE 3.5%
Saudi 2.4%
TMX 2.2%
All others 21.2%

Global Wealth
$360.6tn
Asia/Pacific 39.2%
N.America 31.8%
Europe 25.2%
Latin America 2.7%
Africa 1.1%

Global Debt
$253tn*
Non financial Cos 29.5%
Govts 27.4%
Households 24.3%
Financial sector 18.8%
* 322% of Global GDP.

Total value of Worlds narrow money*
$ 35.2tn.
Total value of Worlds
broad money**
$95.7tn.
* easy access
** deposits,savings,funds, etc..,

Covid-19
06:00
GMT
Total cases 6,034,875
China 82,999 +7
Total deaths 366,894
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 1,793,530 (104,542)
Brazil 468,338 (27,944)
Russia 387,623 (4374)
Spain 285,644 (27,121)
UK 271,222 (38,161)*
Italy 232,248 (33,229)
France 186,835 (28,714)
Germany 183,019 (8594)
Indonesia 25,216 (1520)
Malaysia 7732 (115)

* 324 deaths yesterday
* 3997 cases per 1m pop
* 562 deaths per 1m pop
* 4.04m total tests
* 59.6k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 6,033,875
New cases 7457*
Total deaths 366,894
New deaths 473**
Recovered 2.661m (44%)
* 3227 Mexico
* 2429 Pakistan
** 371 Mexico
** 78 Pakistan

During May (UK)
New cases 106,001
New deaths 12,064

From the flash crash of April 30th (48-50) REA has remained stubbornly unmoved despite the huge increase in volumes around (2,000,000) est 70% on buy side. The fundamentals have not changed and the increase of pis on the register has borne little fruit. We could be here some time.

Cpo was static at $638 on the week and ytd averages c.$647 ($536). Other palm shares were similarly unmoved. The SE Asian stocks should improve as buying from India has resumed and China demand increases but as we know that's not a given until the corona-v has been eradicated and many say it never will be.

A steady as she goes open for US markets. Advices from Asia and Europe marked traders cards for a downbeat start and 150 was taken off the Dow in minutes.
Meanwhile business carries on without the consumer who has been saving at a record rate instead of spending. Its est savings have risen c.30% since the lockdown.

On Co news, Boeing has resumed production of the Max Jet with upgraded software but no certificate from the FAA as to air worthiness. As they await the FAA to re-certify MAX another 6770 face a lengthening dole queue. Two big biochems, Eli Lilly ($151) & Astra Zeneca down 118 at $8580 report successful trials for an alzheimer's & phase 3 lung cancer drug. The corona-v companies had a good day, Novavax up $1.20 ($45) Gilead up $3 ($78) & Moderna gained 11% ($62).

Companies reporting, Cost Co grew Q3 sales as customers bulk bought toiletries, bottle water and groceries. Shares off $1 at $308 and Dell benefitted from workstation purchases by companies moving employees to home based work, shares up 4% ($50). All change on the big board, yesterdays winners Boeing, Amex, Cat, JPMC & Raytheon now prop up the losers. Cisco topped the leader board up 5% and recent punter faves Luck In Coffee ($2.16) and Hertz ($1.00) were little changed.
Oils had their best monthly rise on record surging 88% in May as demand and outlook improved. However over leveraged energy stocks lagged oil price gains by a huge margin (80%+). Ytd WTI is down 42%.

The market rebounded strongly as the phase-one trade deal remained in tact with only minor changes to Hong Kongs preferential status cooled nervous traders. The 300 rally from 2:00pm pared earlier losses the Dow closing down 18 points. Over the month 22/30 Dow stocks are up with Nike best in class +13% and Exxon +2% taking the bronze. Best sector in May was Info Tech up 7% the worst Energy up .07%

At close:
DJ -18 (25383)
SP +15 (3044)
NS + 121 (9490)
R2 -7 (1394)
Morning all.

Yesterday Buys c.43,000 sells c.8,700. Last trade 5000 buy at 56. It's a Friday so not much will happen today, last Friday c.55,000 traded.

Covid-19
06:30
GMT

Total cases 5,909,081
China 82,995
Total deaths 362,091
China 4634

Countries 213

USA 1,768,461 (103,330)
Brazil 438,812 (26,764)
Russia 379,051 (4142)
Spain 284,986 (27,119)
UK 269,127 (37,837)*
Italy 231,732 (33,142)
France 186,238 (28,662)
Germany 182,452 (8570)
Indonesia 24,538 (1496)
Malaysia 7629 (115)

* 377 deaths yesterday
* 3966 cases per 1m pop
* 558 deaths per 1m pop
* 3.92m total tests
* 57.7k tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 5,909,081
New cases 8174*
Total deaths 362,091
New deaths 542**
Recovered 2.582m (44%)

* 3377 Mexico
* 2801 Pakistan
* 619 Bolivia

** 447 Mexico
** 57 Pakistan
** 13 Bolivia

Not much change in Asia this morning as Trump & Co ratchet up tensions with China. All mrkts are lower with the main worry over HKs continued independent status as a financial powerhouse.
Currently HK is in the MSCI(W) developed Index and could now be reclassified in the Emerging Mrkts index with China. This could cause a mass flight of capital from HK. Trumps news conference later today may indicate future policy moves re HK & China.
At 1:00pm JST.
TK -90
HK -164
SH u/c
SK -10

Putting on the style US equities moved up 170 at the bell in contrast to the 2.13m Americans signing on down the Labour Exchange bringing the total to over 40m since March 20th.
Adding somewhat to the jobless gloom US GDP sank 5% in Q1 more or less as forecast with Durable Goods Orders plunging 17% in April, mostly parts for non defence items, aircraft and auto parts.
Theres no doubt that investors have been buying into a much faster recovery than thought possible 2 months ago which will have to be supported by Q3/Q4 earnings back on the right track. Few companies have given guidance that far ahead.

By 10:00am traders had taken 200 off the Dow most of the gains were lost as China's Legislature approved a resolution to impose new security laws on the people of HK. This could cause the US to retaliate against China by way of sanctions and tariffs and consider HK to have lost the "one country two systems" agreement signed in 1979. What also seemed like a 'fit of pique'
Trump signed an exec order against Social Media companies removing the liability shield they enjoy because Twitter added its 'fact check' label to his tweets, ie (don't believe a word). Twitter fell 4% & Facebook 2%.

Bill Ackman the high profile hedge fund owner of (Pershing Sq) has dumped his $11bn stake in Berkshire H (A) shares which have fallen 22% ytd thats a small matter of $62,000 per share.
Hertz stock now cheaper than one of Luck Ins lattes fell 22% to $1. Luck In Coffee ($2) fell 21% on profit taking while virus stocks were better, Moderna up 9%, Novavax up 2% and Gilead ahead 1%. A late reversal led by Oils, Techs & Banks pulled the Dow down 300 from days high as news leaked out Trump was going to hold a news conference on China. Australia & Canada have issued a joint statement of their 'deep concern' over Beijings actions.
DJ -148 (25400)
SP -6 (3630)
NS -43 (9369)
R2 -36 (1401)
WTI $33.33
10y/tb 0.671%

Nos: Oil $35.67. Vix 29.
Gold $1733. Palm $634.
IDR 14669. $1.233.€ 1.112
PI 6755. FP6540. MSCI(W)
509. FF -68. DF -28.

WTF was that about? Cost £12 in commission!

That was a dot on the card!

Smallholders face an uncertain future as cpo prices have fallen c.30% this year which will wipe out any profits for those with holdings of 100 acres or less.
The cost of fertiliser is c.40% of total costs so this is being slashed but one inevitably sacrifices yield down the road. Small lot farmers have little option whereas the big companies can reduce overheads as opposed to inputs.
Demand for seedlings has tanked c.30% and replanting is on hold on many estates. The MPOA
have est a 10% fall in output this year.

Sime Derby reported a Q1 net profit of $90.6m mainly due to a disposal gain from a Liberian subsidiary, higher cpo and unrealised profits from commodity hedges made up the balance.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT
Total cases 5,790,103
China 82,995+2
Total deaths 357,432
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)
USA 1,745,803 (102,107)
Brazil 414,661 (25,697)
Russia 370,680 (3968)
Spain 283,849 (27,118)
UK 267,240 (37,460)*
Italy 231,139 (33,072)
France 182,913 (28,596)
Germany 181,895 (8533)
Indonesia 23,851 (1473)
Malaysia 7619 (115)

* 412 deaths yesterday
* 3939 cases per 1m pop
* 552 deaths per 1m pop
* 3.8m total tests
* 56k tests per 1m pop
* 14% fatality rate

Summary
Total cases 5,790,103
New cases 5500*
Total deaths 357,432
New deaths 495**
Recovered 2.5m (43%)

* 3463 Mexico
* 632 Brazil
** 463 Mexico
** 11 Sudan

Bigest trade of the day (33,000) went in at 4:30 no bid so at 55 could easily be a buy or sell. That boosted the days vol to c.235,000 (3×) yesterdays.

As is the norm of recent days equities got off to a flyer the Dow up over 300 after the bell building on yesterdays 530 rally.
The background for mrkts are all positive the optimism well founded for the Fed is ready to backstop any sudden shock. Mortgage applications were up 9% last wk, people are returning to work, shops and restaurants are becoming busier and Disney are opening the gates in July just what the mrkts like to hear.
One must not forget that 100,000 have now died as a result of corona-v that exceeds the death toll of Iraq, Vietnam & Korea put together. NY & New Jersey account for 40% of the 102,107 total. Jobless nos come out 8:30am EST.

Europe which in corona-v curve terms is ahead of the US will be announcing a €750bn package in a mix of loans and grants as Christine Lagarde Euro Bank President reckons GDP will tumble c.12% this year. European and UK mrkts are well up today after mixed signals from Asia. The one dark cloud is HK / China which threatens US / China relations now exacerbated by Trump threatening to revoke HK special trading status (no tariffs) and its autonomous financial state will be questioned. Trump will be making an announcement shortly on the HK issue. The Senate already requires foreign companies (Chinese) who wish to list on US exchanges to be subjected to American audits.

Early risers on the big board are JPMC, Goldman, Amex, Boeing (737 in production) & Cat, going down Apple which has just taken over top spot as the most valuable US company ($1.376tn) from Msoft, Amazon in third place. Among the laggards are Intel, Visa, Exxon & Wallmart bringing up the rear. Recent fallers Luck In and Hertz are having a better day up 17% ($2.51) & 123% ($1.24) attracting the penny stock gamblers. Corona stocks are being sold off Novavax down 11%, Moderna off 10% & Gilead up 1%. Airlines cont their strong rebound American up 8% led the way.

Crude slid $1.26c ($33.09) on doubts about Russia cutting output in July as global demand picks up. Later today EIA are forecasting a 1.2mb drop in inventory wk ending May 22nd. Late on buyers appeared as Dow futures gained to close 3 off session high. No significant companies reporting today.
DJ +553 (25,548) 2%
SP +44 (3036)
NS +72 (9412)
R2 +43 (1436) 3%
WTI $32.14
10y/tb 0.695%

Nos: Oil $34.75. Vix 28.
Gold $1714. Palm $639.
$1.226. €1.113. IDR 14745
PI 6755. FP 6561 MSCI(W) 507.
FF+80. DF+240.
Morning all.

For the first time in a while sells on a par with buys at c.86,000 to c.102,000, the bid slightly up at 56. Volume is c.2x yesterdays
at mid'day. Strange that REA is attracting so much trade given the basic numbers and one iis selling out...we think.

You can pretty much bet the majority who have made a turn will not be back. The holders v traders might be 20:80. That's the system and if it works for you bon chance!
Once this enthusiasm for REA wears off as it will, we'll be back to 10,000 a day tops and a declining sp. Give me the current action even if the stock does sfa!

Best 55-59

Far East mrkts at JST 1:45
TK +150
HK -115
SH -2
SK +5
HK slips as debate starts in the Legislature Council over new China imposed laws that would erode the independence of the former British Colony.
Insulting or abusing the Chinese National Anthem would be a criminal offence. The Hang Seng is the worst performer of the big 4 ytd.
HK -17%
TK -9%
SH -7%
SK -7%

Covid-19
05:30
GMT

Total cases 5,685,938
China 82,993+1
Total deaths 352,227
China 4634

Countries 213
(Selected)

USA 1,725,275 (100,572)
Brazil 394,507 (24,593)
Russia 362,342 (3807)
Spain 283,339 (27,117)
UK 265,227 (37,048)*
Italy 230,555 (32,955)
France 182,722 (28,530)
Germany 181,288 (8498)
Indonesia 23,165 (1418)
Malaysia 7604 (115)

* 134 deaths yesterday
* 3909 cases per 1m pop
* 546 deaths per 1m pop
* 3.7m total tests
* 54,260 tests per 1m pop

Summary
Total cases 5,685,938
New cases 8127
Total deaths 352,227
New deaths 573
Recovered 2.431m (43%)

* 3455 Mexico
* 2147 Brazil
* 1083 India

** 501 Mexico
** 44 Brazil
** 13 Bolivia