Member Info for JohnLewis79

Palm oil is facing strong headwinds in its bid to replace fossil fuel as an energy source. Diesel (gasoil) prices have tanked 45% ytd sending its discount to palm to its highest since 2011. Palm oil is c.$350 a ton more expensive than gasoil and has more than doubled this year at one time stretching the disc to $400.
President Joko is committed to maintain the B30 mandate which will inevitably fall on palm companies paying more in levies etc.. Other Govts are balking at the large subsidies to fund the biodiesel program which currently is hugely uneconomic.

Something will have to give. Cpo prices are falling back from recent $800 highs which are out of whack v crude at $41. Noone is expecting crude to revisit $60 anytime soon, so i would not be surprised to see palm struggling to stay above $700 especially if the pandemic last through 2021 without an effective vaccine.

Next announcements from palm companies are:

Nov '20 Anglo Q3 nos.
Jan '21 Mpe crop & output
Feb '21 Rea trading update.

DJ -131 (27,453)
SP -16 (3335)
NS -32 (11,085)
R2 -6 (1505)
WTI $39.10
10y/tb 0•656%

Amaz $3150 -24
Apple $114 -1
Boeing $164 -5
Exxon $34 -1
Goldman $197
Msoft $208 -2
Tesla$419 -3
United $35 -1
Wallmart $136
Zoom $466 -21

A nothing day on US markets as the indices moved from small losses to gains throughout the session. The 500 looks to post a near 5% decline in Sept its worst result since 2011. Its estimated that 20% of the equity mrkt is sitting in cash.
Talk was of the up'coming Biden, Trump debate in Cleveland which is expected to be low on factual news, high on bad tempered points scoring and that's exactly how it turned out, two elderly white men shouting at each other. Plus ca change.

Nos: Oil $41.17. Vix 26.
Gold $1890. Copper $3.000.
Palm $748. $1•285. €1•095.
IDR 14,895. MSCI(W) 563.
FF -7. DF +35.
Morning all.

Covid-19
03:30
GMT

UK 446,156 (42,072)*
Indonesia 282,724 (10601)•

* 7143 cases
* 71 deaths
• 4106 cases
• 128 deaths

- 33•8m cases
- 1•01m deaths
- 25•1m recovered

DJ +410 (27,584)
SP +53 (3352)
NS +204 (11,118)
R2 +35 (1510)
WTI $40.35
10y/tb 0.656%

Amaz $3190 +95
Apple $115 +3
Boeing $166 +15
Carnival $13
Exxon $35
Goldman $200 +5
Msoft $211 +3
Nflix $492 +9
United $36 +2
Wallmart $137
Zoom $490 -7

Nos: Oil $42.69. Vix 26.
Gold $1889. Copper $2.989.
Palm $764. $1•286. €1•101.
IDR 14,907. MSCI(W) 564.
FF +10. DF +97.
Morning all.

Covid-19
04:30
GMT

UK 439,013 (42,001)*
Indonesia 278,618 (10,473)•

* 4044 cases
* 12 deaths
• 3405 cases
• 85 deaths

Just goes to prove good results mean diddly...kinda knew that anyways. Don't expect the sp (59) to reach 70 by year end as the occasional small lot seller keeps the price bouncing in a wide 10% band. Not sure who benefits as very few buyers pick up loose stock and the spread is a disincentive to even the casual passer by.
The jobber boys cant make a living off non performers like REA and seem reluctant to encourage more volumes.

Thats Ok by me. I rarely ever see a consistent rise in sp's...oops hang on, I remember one 40 years, blimey was it that long ago ffs?....Trafalgar House, thanks Mr Broakes! I'm resigned to parking here till year end results sometime in 2021. I cannot wait that long for if my forecast upside
(12p) proves correct will be a damp squib in cash terms as 13% if that will be eaten up by costs. Late news some small Director buys had no bearing on sp which hasn't been over 58 bid c'ept on a fleeting occasion or two.

Could be a sign of the times and for the lth not worth bothering with. I'd go along with that in the medium term having no need to cash out even at a small loss, so I'll stick around to be o'rnery in the hope something out of the ordinary occurs like reducing the spread to 1.
Evening all.

A mixed start to wk40 trading, after Friday's rise on Wall though the MSCI Asia-Pacific is just above a 2 month low (544). Profits at Chinese industrial companies grew for the 4th straight month to August priced in on the SHCOMP.

Nevertheless covid clouds, infection spikes, global recovery hopes and Trump v Biden debate on Tuesday continue to be causes for concern.
Trump will have to rebut news of his alleged non payment of tax very conveniently surfacing in time for Tuesdays debate. He denies the allegations printed in the NY Times, saying it's old fake news.

At 1:00pm JST
TK +162
HK +171
SH -7
SHZ -14
SK +30
JSX -17
ASX +3

Nos: Oil $41.67. Vix 26.
Gold $1865. Copper $2.984.
Palm $762. $1.277.€1.097.
IDR 14,913. MSCI(W) 555.
FF +74. DF +132.
Morning all.

Covid-19
04:00
GMT

UK 434,969 (41,988)*
Indonesia 275,213 (10,386)•

* 5692 cases
* 17 deaths
• 3874 cases
• 78 deaths

1,002,389 global deaths.

The S&P 500 performance (peak to peak) during the last 6 major financial crashes (covid-19 on-going).

* 1929-1954 Great crash
Days duration 7256
Drop 86%

* 1973-1980 Oil shock
Days duration 1899
Drop 48%

* 1987-1989 Black Monday
Days duration 402
Drop 29%

* 2000-2007 .com bubble
Days duration 1808
Drop 49*
Amazon $11

* 2013-2020 Financial crisis
Days duration 1379
Drop 57%

* 2020- Covid-19
Days duration 117
Drop 34%

Covid-19
04:00
GMT

UK 429,277 (41,971)*
Indonesia 271,339 (10,308)•

* 5951 cases
* 35 deaths
• 4494
• 90 deaths
• 90 deaths

Covid-19
07:00
GMT
UK 423,326 (41,936)*
Indonesia 266,845 (10,218)•

* 6963 cases
* 34 deaths
• 4823 cases
• 113 deaths

Cpo recovered Thursdays losses gaining $22 on the day to close at c$773 and for Sept $777 ($548). Currently runs ytd at c.$689. REA volume on the week was just short of c.500,000 and closed at 59-63.
Other palm stocks on wk39, Anglo added 22, MPE down 45. The KLPI fell 97 and runs 9% down ytd.

US close:
DJ +359 (27,174)
SP +52 (3298)
NS +241 (10,914)
R2 +23 (1475)
WTI $40•04
10y/tb 0•658%

A sustained rally from the early morning days low of 26,635 pushed the 30 to 27,174 (+359) led up by Boeing, Apple, UH and Msoft.
Investors piled into techs after the 331 slump on Wed leading to a wks rise for the Nsdq100. There were no changes to the economic or virus background.

Oil $41.85. Vix 28. Gold $1864.
Copper $2.978. Palm $773.
$1•297. €1•096. IDR 14,888.
MSCI(W) 555.
Morning all.

Oh well, whose surprised that the sp is lower / on a par post the results? Are you? I'm not. I posited such an occurrence a few posts ago. Not saying I'm a clever dick, which I obviously am but hey,hey,hey, I call it as I see it.
Don't buy into the headline price, it means zilch, mind you sometimes the bid is in the cloud as well. Whatever any rise in the sp will make zero diff to the sub 20,000 holding of pis. At close you can sell for 59 which might pay for the Co admin costs.

As the lockdown gets worse, I rarely venture outside of my broom cupboard for fear of contacting a virus floating through the air, that's how you catch it, right?.....I'm kidding, you know that. I try and observe Govt guidelines but *uckf* me i'll draw the line at having to wear a mask in a Pub.

Evening all, a wks summary may appear shortly when I have recovered from a boozy lunch session and have calmed down.

A zillion on MS... not many recorded on Lse ( that's par for the course) and let's be fair does it make any difference at all? I dont think so, as most will be flipped for a 1/2p turn if lucky.
Perhaps its best one ignores 1million trades or 10 given the inaccuracy. One thing I'm certain off that vols either way has zero impact on sp appreciation . I know that's going against perceived wisdom, but I'll stick with it.
I could give you examples but would not be applicable here in this time or space. Scoreboard watching is best avoided!

Left pub...queuing outside Iceland.

I know to the dogs!

Walked into my local the last bastion of trad pub drinkers ( in my area) and was confronted by bar staff wearing bloody masks! FFS! I can walk in maskless but the staff have to wear one under Boris's Booze law!
I'm lost for words and that's a first...
I happened to walk past Iceland at 9:30am and the queues....well forget it!
Where is this country going?

A certain o..lie I invested in has just arranged a $300m unsecured 2025 bond at.....wait for it...9.25%
C on a bike what a terrible deal for shareholders and this co is positive cash flow, cash in Bank!
I hope REA if they have any spare loot at year end consider retiring some of the bonds which are costing us a bundle annually.

Ftse called better and Wall looking upwards. It's a Friday so vols tend to fall and REA no exception albeit trades have been better ahead of wks close.
Palm bouncing back from yesterdays $25 fall and looks to close ahead of last wks ytd average.