Member Info for JohnLewis79

Excuse me while I delete lots of unwanted missives. Never ever read any, and never will. I do not have the time to read front running nonsense.
I can do it better myself. I live on the outskirts of Dulwich, it's really grubby Tulse Hill if the truth be told.... ssshhhh. Anyways we decided to go to a popular pub called the 'Alleyns Head' in Dulwich for drinks and pub grub. I dont know why we walked but the 30min walk crippled me.

The welcome, as you may have guessed was of the, "wtf are you doing here type thing, let's have your National Ins no, phone number, your address" and go and sit in the corner"
Well, I'm not about to give my personal details for a bloody pint and egg & chips to anyone, I'm on my bike tout suite! Luckily my friend cooled heated heads. I was ready to head home, till my friend dragged me back saying he had sorted the log-in details with Herr Stuppenfrahuer ex of the NKVD, on the door convincing him we were on the guest list and weren't terrorists.

Mind you I wish I bloody was! There were 4 people in this large pub inc us two, and I wolfed down my 'egg ham & chips' in quick step time. It was a real pleasure to walk back into my local without the 3rd degree and have a beer without feeling I was an alien.
Afternoon all.

these mm's really think we take notice of their fake prices? I sure don't cos with the results due this week, next week, sometime never... they need 45s or lower to turn a coin. Do I believe this 50+? Do I hell. Stay well clear given previous!

Ziiion trades, 10/11 to finish down. Why wouldn't it? I have a story to recount when I sober up...

Tanked the share price now stuff us with a 10% spread!

Lots of those small sub 20 trades this morning. Indicative only:
49,279 buys
2761 sells

On top of the Topppermost, whatever next? Over sellers, caught out? Price for the boys?
Tut tut.... mus'nt get all cynical just cos the shares are up.....

28,000 at 50 done.

REV nos:

Civil Aero. £8,107m
Power S. £3,545m
Defence £3,250m
ITP Aero £936m
Order backlog £61bn.

Ftse All Share index ranking quarterly review(1/9/2020).

No 1 Astra Zenecca. £107•6bn
No 2 RDSA+B. £83.1bn
No 3 GSK £72.5bn.

439 MPE
503 Anglo

666 IQGEO £34.7m

For REA to enter the list the shares would have to reach 79.

RR $274 (213) up 1.5% on 3•3m traded,
well above daily average.

Yesterdays nos from MPE do not bode well for REA when they announce their Interims...today? Despite good nos from MPE the trading interest was non existent at just 15k and the share price was stuck at 580. Nothing pleases investors these days.

While REA nos have no correlation to MPE despite being in the same business, REA have their own demons to deal with I do not expect the shares to do very much. The sector, the current global economy and poor sentiment among the investment community conspire against palm companies despite the cpo price nearing last year $800 from the Apr $632 low.

If the REA share price tells us anything (they usually do) we could be in for a rough ride shortly.

MPE reports a $4.4m ($0.557L) profit for the 6 months to June 30th. Revs jumped 64% to $75m ($46m)
and crop sizes improved to 334,000t (287,000t) as the average price of cpo (cif Rotterdam) improved to $648. The 5p dividend is maintained. MPE closed at 580.

Palm oil prices have been revised upwards from RM2300 to RM 2500 as demand for the oil for food consumption set to improve ahead of the mid autumn festival in China and recovery in hotel, restaurant and cafe sectors.
CIMB Research has upped their output forecasts in Malaysia by c.2% to 19.48mt this year as production improves (m-o-m) by 3% due to seasonal trends and (y-o-y) by 2%.
However rising palm prices and falling crude have worsened the economic viability of the B30/40 biofuel programme which could mean higher tariffs for producers.

DJ +328 (27,993)
SP +43 (3384)
NS +203 (11,057)
R2 +40 (1537)
WTI $37.24
10y/tb 0•671%

Apple $116 +4
Amaz $3109 +7
Boeing $164 +4
Carnival $18
Exxon $37
Goldman $201
Msoft $206 +1
Tesla $423 +50
United $37 +1
Wallmart $137 +1
Zoom $405 +22

Nos: Oil $39.57. Vix 26.
Gold $1975. Copper $3.075.
Palm $782. $1.286.€1.081.
IDR 14,883. MSCI(W) 573.
FF -2. DF +73.
Morning all.

The UK has adopted a collossally expensive 'Big Brother' approach to covid based on exhortations, fear mongering, lockdowns, changes of policy and other heavy handed initiatives which have served to bankrupt this Country. If any 'nosey parker' Covid Marshall comes knocking at my door he will get a swift 'do one'
Take the case of Witherspoons where various Daily (M) papers said pubs were "dangerous places to be"
That is total bull s***t. Tim Martin reported that his estate of pubs had a total of 10 cases reported, there were more positive cases at a farm in Hereford for goodness sake!

Of course Witherspoons who provide what a lot of drinkers want, beer and food at cheap prices is an easy 'mark' for the Dailies to have a go at, as is Martin an avid Brexiteer. Their agendas are so obvious its embarrassing.

I think most of us get that mark_rs. It's a long road back to 500 but for long'term holders patience is the price we pay. We may be right to wait for another 2-5 years nobody can tell with certainty whether the company comes out of covid leaner and more cost effective. I hope it does.
In the meantime the sp will be buffeted by all the material or otherwise news flows. If your convinced you intend to hold till at least till 2024 the scoreboard today, tomorrow is irrelevant imo.

At 1:45 JST.
TK +158
HK +163
SH +18
SHZ +26
SK +27
JSX +117
ASX +33

Nos: Oil $39.95. Vix 27.
Gold $1956. Copper $3.051.
Palm $774. IDR 14926. $1.282
€1.082. MSCI(W) 566. FF +27. DF +237.

A recent study in the medical journal JAMA Network Open found on short haul flights on Boeing 737s & Airbus 320s across the US that your chances of catching the virus (everyone wearing a mask) on full flights is 1:4300 and if the middle seat is vacant 1:7700. Several things have to happen.

* has to be a covid passenger on board.
* has to be contagious.
* the mask has to fail to prevent transmission.
* be close enough that there is a danger you could suffer from the transmission.

Now those odds look pretty good to me a 1:4300 on a full flight of say a couple of hours and yet wer'e now under this 6 rule, what odds would those be of catching the virus (see below). A lot better I would suggest. Here's the latest odds of catching the virus in England.

* 1 in 228,000.
* 1 in 2,000,000 of dying.

Look at it this way.
* Using 1 dice it's a 1:6 chance of rolling a six.
* Use 6 dice and have them all land on 6 is 1:50,000.
* risk of dying in a car crash or plane crash is a 9 dice risk, ie of you rolling 9 sixes on the spin. Dont bother the odds are your going to be safe!
Morning all.

I have been a fan of WB since the 70s in fact I very nearly bought 1 share in BH in the early 80s for c.$5000 but stupidly couldn't get my head round 1 share being worth so much. Big mistake that 1 share is worth $327,000,00.
Ouch!!

His investment rules are very straightforward and can be summed up as follows. Buy
* businesses you understand.
* favourable long term outlook
* operated by honest competent people.
* shares priced sensibly.
* product needed/desired
* not overly capital intensive
* having no close substitute
* ability to raise prices.
* buy low tech not high tech.
(Changed his mind as he has 255•3m shares in Apple).

Often referred to as the greatest living investor his performance over many years is breathtaking. The annual % change is as below from 1965- 2018 after tax not pre tax which the S&P nos are.

In per share book value.
* 18•7% comp annual gain.
* An overall gain 1,091,899%

In per share mrkt value
* 20•5% comp annual gain.
* An overall gain 2,472,627%

The S&P 500 (dividends inc) pre tax.
* 9•7% comp annual gain
* An overall gain 15,019%

Says it all really. The nos WB reports are what's left over after paying the cleaners and not the silly EBITA touted by Wall that redefines 'earnings'
to exclude a variety of all-too-real costs, like for instance management sometimes assert the company's stock-based comp shouldn't be accounted as an expense, was it a gift from shareholders? I don't bloody think so.

Do you think RR is a company that fits his guidelines? Mind you he took a bath on Tesco some years ago!
Morning all.

The nuts'n bolts of the nos to beat.
(2019 H1).

Revenue $56.6m
PT(L) $29.5m
COS $63•2m
FFB 335•2kt
OER 22•9
AVSP (Cpo) $430*
AVSP (Cpko) $590*
IDR v USD $16m negative.

• Cost of sales
* av achieved sell price.