Member Info for JohnLewis79

I have them!

Back in the 'good old days heh,heh,heh stock mrkt life was so much better, oops, easier I should have said as access to mrkt info was severely limited, ringing up your broker every hour was out of the question. You bght & forgot.
Chances are the stock you bght would only appear in the FT and few pis ever bght the FT, so checking sps was difficult. Did it worry me? Not really as I'd find a way once a week or month. Anyways my Dad told me to put my cert in the bottom drawer and forget about it. I wasn't that bothered. I am talking well pre Sid.

The American invasion and 'Big Bang' changed everything. Stock Broking was no longer the preserve of the upper classes and share ownership became available to everyone.
That of necessity led us to the 2000's, mobile phones, instant access to prices, buy, sells at a click, chat forums full of the unwashed and Social Media the curse of the 2020s

Call that progress? Yes in the vast majority of cases mobs have changed peoples lives for the better you just have to filter out all the doom 'n gloom merchants polluting the air waves. In my lifetime I would rate it man's greatest achievement outside of finding a cure for all diseases
ending poverty etc.. Can you in all honesty live without your mobile? I thought I could until I bght one!

Well put! The mrkt is going through huge uncertainties due to the virus pandemic and as is usual many stocks
are mis'priced, quality businesses 'go on sale' for reasons other than the underlying fundamentals. It's a fact that most pis view mrkt falls as near disasters and bail out. Almost every business is going to encounter difficulty at some point as longterm holders here know.
Without large swings in equities we would never get large opportunities.
The investor who allows himself to be stamped out by mrkt declines is perversely transforming his advantage into a disadvantage. Much as we dislike mrkt declines we should get to like them because it presents opportunity. RR maybe a case in point
but remember the old adage' timing the mrkt or time in the mrkt' Your choice.

Covid-19
05:00
GMT

UK 416,363 (41,902)*
Indonesia 262,022 (10,105)•

* 6634 cases
* 40 deaths
• 4634 cases
• 128 deaths

DJ +52 (26,815)
SP +10 (3247)
NS +39 (10,672)
R2 u/c (1452)
WTI 41.59
10y/tb 0•678%

Amaz $3047 +21
Apple $109 +2
Boeing $148 -8
Carnival $14
Exxon $35
Goldman $196 +9
Msoft $203 +4
Netflix $477 +6
Tesla $394 +13
United $33
Wallmart $137 +1
Zoom $471 -28

Modest rises on Wall St though the background noises remain the same but fresh attempts by Congress to cobble together an $2.4tn aid package
for Businesses & Cities lifted stocks late on. Jobless claims rose 4000 to 870,000 a slight uptick in a stagnant labour mrkt.

Nos: Oil $42.17. Vix 28.51.
Gold $1873. Copper $2.979.
Palm $759. $ 1.275. €1.109. IDR 14,906. MSCI(W) 550.
FF +36. DF +151.
Morning all.

Weird end to the days REA trading volumes. Between 16:31 & 16:34 (33) trades took place in descending vol order from 1356 to 1 all at 64, total vol c.10,025. On the day c.120,000 traded making 432,000 give or take for w-t-d vols. Shares barely moved the bid up 1•5 (the only important nos) and u/c since the Interims.
No doubt interest has spiked in the stock as investors attitude to palm stocks could be changing for the better. One reason imo could be pop growth. Rising cpo prices, not today, will boost H2 nos which will not have escaped investors attention.

Since 2007 another 1bn people have joined the human race estimated to total 7•7bn last year and forecast to reach 8•6bn by 2030. This is good news for palm oil as pop growth is a driving factor for demand in oil palm products especially food and despite the best efforts of the "Green Lobby" the demand curve ascends y-o-y.

A restaurant in Charing X Central London seating capacity (100) had 2 diners last night at 9:00pm. Well done Boris!

On these Nav, Ev nos which a good few investors are very sceptical about they need to be tested more often. Until an offer is rec'd it's just 'a number".
No use in having a $10,000 EV and be offered 50% of that. I know PJB realised a lot more than current as back in June the APOP index pha was $10,900 and has likely risen since cpo recovery.
Last I looked the 'real' ev pha nos was down to c.$7500. That equates to REA estate EV of £216m, giving a pha value of 481p, could be slightly lower as those nos are on 36,700 pha. That's considerably lower than June 2019 prices but perhaps more on the money? Be nice to see this tested by an offer which surely would be above a low ball 200.

Look at it this way. REA has approx 5.0m trees planted which equates to a tree value of less than a pint of lager.
To value a tree that can potentially produce 10t per ha per annum at such a low price is barmy, as over its producing lifetime it's going to earn well over $1m. I'd like one in my back garden.

DJ -525 (26,763)
SP -79 (3237)
NS -331 (10,633)
R2 -45 (1451)
WTI $39•58
10y/tb 0•677%

Amaz $2973 -155
Apple $106 -2
Boeing $157 +1
Carnival $14
Exxon $34
Goldman $187 -4
Msoft $200 -7
Netflix $469 -21
Tesla $368 -57
United $33
Wallmart $135 -3
Zoom $495 +3

Wall opened up 176 and in fine fettle but the mood soon turned sour as sellers slammed stocks taking the Dow & the 500 to days lows & into near correction territory, just a % point away. Worries over no new fiscal stimulus, a paralysed Congress, election concerns, infection spikes and tech sell offs sent dealers to the sidelines. It's very much a sell now ask questions later market, be safe not sorry.
Worth reminding that since the year low the 500 is up 45% coincidentally exactly 1000 points better and travels flat ytd. In the UK the All Share has gained 20% since low but travels 22% down ytd.

Nos: Oil $41•78. Vix 27.
Gold $1869. Copper $2.984.
Palm $775. $1.274. €1092.
IDR 14891. MSCI(W) 552.
FF-57. DF +33.
Morning all.

Covid-19
03:00
GMT

UK 409,729 (41862)*
Indonesia 257,388 (9977)•

* 6178 cases
* 37 deaths
• 4465 cases
• 140 deaths

Global
32,092,156 cases
98,953 deaths
4117 cases per 1m pop
126 deaths per 1m pop

Back in Jan this year REA traded at 167 mrkt cap £73m presumably based on or thereabouts the 2018 results (£20.3m) loss. Cpo was a strong $800 the pandemic yet to cripple global economies and trade.

Here we are nearly 10 months later the virus alive and well, cpo recovered to 2018 levels yet REA is worth c.£50m less. I checked Anglo and Mpe their values have also declined. In Anglo's case the mrkt value has fallen by £27m (12%) and Mpe c.£79m lower, (20%).
Someone might make a case as to why REA peers have fallen much less, my view is Anglo is a serial profit maker, Mpe likewise turns in profits every year which would explain their out performance v REA and holders might legitimately feel as hard done by the mrkts as REA holders.

Yet one cannot help feeling REA have been singled out for the treatment as the mrkt cap has slumped 66% ytd and trades at a massive 87% discount to NAV, much worse than the other two. The at times huge spread (10%+) is a disincentive but not to longtermers imo. Of course cheap doesnt mean a share is a buy but given there is no competition and planted (HA) values are hundreds of pence higher one's gotta wonder why the stock is cheaper than chips?

I think i have been down this road before but thought it was worth reiterating even if the mrkts are looking the other way I continue to be a scoreboard watcher however slowly the runs are being scored.

Covid-19
04:00
GMT

UK 403,551 (41825)*
Indonesia 252,923 (9837)•

* 4926 infections
* 27 deaths
• 4071 infections
• 160 deaths

Morning comeonvog luckily this ridiculous new measure of closing at 10:00pm won't effect me, I'm long'a bed by then!
Seems REA is not on the same pathway of MPE & Anglo both up today. The results which were probably better than most expected provided an early uptick to 67 but have drifted back as pis banked gains.
With all this uncertainty I cannot see much progress for the stock through to year end. The huge chasm in the mrkts view of the fundamentals and the nos themselves tells you all you need to know. How does one bridge such a huge gap? Ring me if you know.

DJ +140 (27,288)
SP +35 (3316)
NS +185 (10,964)
R2 +12 (1497)
WTI $39.40
10y/tb 0•672%

Amaz $3118 +158
Apple $111 +1
Boeing $156 +1
Carnival $14
Exxon $36
Goldman $192 +1
Msoft $207 +5
Tesla $395 -29
United $34
Wallmart $138 +1
Zoom $488 +20

Amazon added 5% on Broker comment which pushed up techs and the wider mrkt. Fed Chair Powell said he would cont to support the economy " for as long as it takes"
Investors piled back in picking up stocks after a 4 day sell off despite the uptick of infections across Europe, Nikola 'investigations', money laundering by Banks, Tik Tock fallout & Trump continuing to blame China for all the worlds ills, pis are still keen to bottom fish for oversold stocks. Trump (1/1) has closed the gap on dozy Joe (5/6f).

Ytd the 30 is 4% down the 500 up 3% the techs up 22% and the Russell Index off 10%.

Nos: Oil $41.32. Vix 27.
Gold $1903. Copper $3.045.
Palm $793. $ 1.272 €1.089.
IDR 14,829. MSCI(W) 560.
FF +29. DF +55.
Morning all.

Sellers gained the upper hand in yesterdays low volume business. Around 1.6 sells to 1 buy continuing the trend since interim results. Profit taking in the main and again many deals in the sub 50 size saw the shares drift to 57.
Fag pckt calc for EV is c.394p/Nav 432. Breaching the gap looks an impossibility while were in a corona-v world, mrkts turning bearish and trade flagging outside of China which has been local consumer driven. I stand by my ridiculous 75p year end close as investors are loathe to rerate the shares. Evil has a 200 target but gives no time frame.
On paper it looks a 'no brainer'
investment, a gift horse, don't ask it would be rude, so you will have to be very patient. Pinning your hopes on a t/o or merger might not be as attractive as once thought as the Robinows/Emba probably want nearer EV to be half interested. That would value REA at c. £176m. On current the form book is much nearer a realistic value of c.£50m and that's doubling from here.

Covid-19
04:30
GMT

UK 398,625 (41,788)*
Indonesia 248,852 (9677)•

* 4368 cases
* 56 deaths
• 4176 cases
• 341 deaths

DJ -510 (27,148)
SP -38 (3281)
NS -14 (10,779)
R2 -51 (1485)
WTI $39.82
10y/tb 0•668%

Four weeks into the sell off has seen the NSDQ enter correction territory and the Dow 2420 points down from 52wk high. Inaction on the paycheck scheme, covid-19, China, trade worries, overheated techs are all ever present. It's been a one trick pony mrkt.
Could this be about to change as we head into Q3 and the dreaded October 'crash month'. Stats on the S&P 500 shows Oct having a positive return since 1950 (43 up yrs, 27 down). September is the dodgy month a negative return (32 up, 38 down). Sept is acting to form the 500 off 6% m-t-d.

Apple $111 +4
Amaz $2980 +24
Boeing $156 -10
Exxon $36 -1
Goldman $194 -1
Msoft $204 +4
Nflix $488 +18
Tesla $423 -19
United $34 -2
Wallmart $138 +3
Zoom $468 +31

Nos: Oil 41.59. Vix 28.
Gold $1914. Copper $3.050.
Palm $793. $1.282. €1.089.
IDR 14,760. MSCI(W) 558.
FF+30. DF -11
Morning all.

Always happy to see sellers in REA, move on and seek your fortunes elsewhere. Mrkt background is horrible but in reality should not effect REA shares which are at a huge discount to tangibles, if you believe in that kind of stuff?.....so it's a strong hold if you cannot buy/add. I'm keen on buying stocks that make me money while I'm asleep, ok that's a joke but you get what I mean.....

He reckons the ords are a screaming buy at 60 and his price target is 200 with a t/o in for free. Just one mans opinion, a very rich one at that so one to be respected imo.

Some years ago (2017/18) there were 50,000 extra deaths over the winter period mainly because of the cold weather, a virulent virus and an ineffective vaccine. I know I had a bad case of the flu despite having my yearly vaccine jab.

I don't remember the Country being closed down and millions put out of work. Do you? Hadn't we better get used to covid-19 being around for the future? Will we not build up a herd immunity in time?
Can't we just get on with our lives without being threatened by fines or being urged to grass on neighbours to the covid police and Boris giving us his war footing speech every few weeks? Less bloody talk and less futile action
please.