Member Info for JohnLewis79

US stocks closed Friday in fine fettle up across all indexes and over the week the Dow put on 3%, the 500 gained 4%, techs 5% and R2 the best at 6%, equities having their best week since July. Washington is driving the mood on Wall St which focuses on the economic stimulus package awaiting agreement.
Gold was up, the USD down & Trumps poll ratings sag on his conducting of covid-19 the gap now 10 points. Wall streeters are ambivalent on whether the next POTUS is of the blue or red persuasion, a clear cut majority the best outcome for equity mrkts, worry about the colour later.

DJ +161 (28587)
SP +30 (3477)
NS +159 (11,580)
R2 +9 (1638)
WTI $40.50
10y/tb 0•777%

Selected
Amazon $3296 +106
Apple $118 +3
Boeing $168 +3
Carnival $16
Goldman $208
Msoft $216 +5
Nflix $536 +5
Tesla $434 +9
United $37
Wallmart $143 +1
Zoom $493 +15

UK mrkts had a quiet week the Ftse up 129 (6017) & the All gained 84 (3378). Ytd's London indexes are lower the ftse off 20%, All down 19% and the 250 losing 17% but Aim is ahead.
If you go back to January 2nd, 2018 the nos were as below:
Ftse (6734)
All (3681)
250 (17587)
SC (5210)
Aim (860)
Of those only the ftse and All are down on current closes.
Morning all.

Cpo closed at $788 on Friday ($771 av over the wk) up $30 and Q3 averaging $671 which inc only 2 days in wk 40.
Not so REA despite two large 100,000 bargains at 59•40 & 60•00 the shares slipped 1•5 and 5•5 on the week, 267,499 traded volume.

Not much action on other palm stocks, Anglo gained 9, MPE 12•5 and DKL on better monthly figs remained flat. KLPI runs 8•5% down ytd. Evening all.

Big buy 100,000 at 59.40 which could be a Director purchase. Will it hold?

Simply that I would not base any investment decision based on an ii adding to their holdings. I'm certainly not short RR as I sold out a few days back. Good luck.

Nothing to get excited about yer usual bog standard holdings notification.

Morning Bertie, I hope you get 'one good push' to break even!
Unimaginable when the sp was in freefall to 100 and looking odds on to hit 80 and the capitulation scare stories doing the rounds....that I never believed! The turnaround has been meteoric to say the least and I kinda think too fast too soon which might invite sellers pre the weekend.

The fundamentals were the same at 100 as 195 which to me smacks of manipulation or the 'tree shake' beloved of pis to come up with an acceptable reason or, just an old sourpus bemoaning his luck in not seeing the bounce from 100. What's done is done and tbh I think that's the end of my involvement with RR. The heavy load of 8•4bn shares is going to make the nos that much harder to achieve post rights leading to the management to 'make up' the nos....maybe, heh heh heh! Even with a consolidation down the line
90p jumps in a flash will be but a distant memory.

I wish you well. You have called this right. Do I wish I had held on? Of course and if I had at 190' ish I'd def sell and look to buy after the 6bn shares swamp the mrkt. Not going to happen now. I have already tentatively earmarked my £2k to add to a non performing Agri counter I hold stock in.... In the meantime will await events. Gluck all.
Morning Rollsters.

Palm oil prices are forecast to rise in H1 2021 as La Nina weather pattern is set to hit veg oil supplies amid a 10% lower crushing of soybean in Argentina. Relaxing of the sit & dine rules and the upcoming Festival season will support prices.
Heavy rains brought on by La Nina has started to disrupt output in SE Asian producing countries which will impact global supply. China has been stockpiling for food security reasons and see higher palm prices dampen demand in lower income countries.

Malaysia has yet to solve the labour shortage on its palm estates as Indonesian workers stay at home due to better prospects. The Govt charging 640 ringgit per foreign worker in favour of "localisation" has also kept 'documented' foreign workers away. Foreigners make up 80% of the Malaysian estate workforce which is currently 31,000 short and that was pre pandemic costing the country many millions in lost income. The mechanisation collection on estates is only in its infancy as human harvesters are very hard to replace. The 30% biofuel blending will take up some of the slack but offers no quick fix as Indonesia is finding needing to raise levies on palm companies to shore up its dwindling B30 finances.

DJ +122 (28426)
SP +27 (3447)
NS +56 (11,421)
R2 +18 (1629)
WTI $41.03
10y/tb 0•773

Selected
Amaz $3197 +1
Apple $115
Boeing $167 +3
Carnival $16
Goldman $209 +5
Msoft $211 +1
Nflix $533 -1
Tesla $430 +4
United$37 +1
Wallmart $142 +1
Zoom $488 +3

Nos: Oil $43.17. Vix 26.
Gold $1914. Copper $3.069.
Palm $779. $1.296. €1.100.
IDR 14,704. MSCI(W) 580.
FF +13. DF +136.
Morning all.

Covid-19
05:00

UK 501,815 (42,592)*
Indonesia 320,564 (11,580)•

* 17540 cases
* 77 deaths
• 4850 cases
• 108 deaths

One sell of 9 shares at 58 tanks this fictional sp 3% to 54.75. Makes you wonder why bother with share prices, they mean diddly in the vast majority of cases. REA might just as well be 540 as 54 theres zero diff imo and therein lies the rub as it's certainly the same in many other stocks. Best put your money in a SP500 tracker & forget about it you will be a lot better off statistically I'm told.

I'm currently 20% down and I consider that a result which goes to show how untrustworthy I consider the London mrkt to be. If you dont realise that share investment is no more than red or black at the roulette table you really shouldn't be chancing your arm. Leave it in a B.Soc at zero interest at least your stake will be the same tomorrow which is a hell of a lot better than 20% down. Tongue in cheek stuff but I'm sure you concur
Rant over, evening all.

Have to say buying RR has been a very bad decision of mine. I bght at 208 and transfixed watched the price slump to 120 ish when I said enuffs enuff and sold out.
Briefly I thought I had made a good decision, one eye on the exr price as the stock headed sub 100 or so I thought. Well, well, RR had a Damoscene Conversion of epic proportions tearing up to the 190s+ on nothing more than jobbers price manipulation, the odd press spec release pro RR and short covering. That's in the name of the game as we all know, just make sure your on the right side of any upturn and I foresaw none. Heh, ho another bum call!

So I'm in a quandary having a couple of K in the kitty, do I rebuy and take up my rights or swerve and add £2k when the frenzy of all those 32p shares get dumped on an unwilling mrkt?
One option is to wait until after Nov 12th and reassess. The second is take my current c.£650 loss and move on, the 3rd is to wait for Q3 nos keeping my ammo dry for any post exr weakness(or not) and that's never wrong. Decisions decisions!
Kinda thinking no 3 is fav atm because I dont for one minute trust this share. It's a long haul back with 8•4bn shares on your back whether at 70,60,50....
If a Butterfly can flap its wings in Brazil and set off a storm in Florida, well who tfk knows what could happen to RR?

Since 23rd,Jan cpo has only had one day when the price rose over $800 that was on the 18th Sept ($808). Most other days between the $570s and current $770.
Of course 'achieved' prices are much less, making the actual price even more important. Whether cpo ever hits $1000 again noone knows. Last time was May 2012.

This bloidy board is a nightmare to navigate! Today's posts way down the page mixed in with Tuesdays & Wensdays ffs! Come on lse get a grip posts at top of page in time order please.

.....'bio variables' should read bio leviables....

Sellers have been getting the upper hand here in vol terms pretty much since the HY nos. The sp has been moribund in the 56-63 closing range.
Not sure why this should be, could be any nos of reasons, need the money, bored with the slow progress, see limited upside for the shares this year, as next trading update is 5 months away, that's an eternity for most pis and the out of favour sector.

Given a 'combi' of those factors investors wont hang around here, one investor selling c.17,000 at c.52 yesterday, that to me smacks of a 'fed up' sell. I see no point in jumping ship to land on a freighter wallowing in similar seas given i would be in 'steerage'. The sea ain't bluer on the other side last I looked.
Console yourself that even if the mrkt thinks were headed to Carey St the underlying 2020 nos are going to be good, well a lot better than 2019 with profits on the cards. If you remember the two key nos in 2019 were revs of $125m & a PT(L) of $44m. If REA cant improve on them, then for sure I'll be jumping ship.

Looking back, Q1 (wks 1-13) 2020 cpo averaged c.$707, so as long as the current price stays in the range $760-$800 we should have some wiggle room going into Q1 2021 as long as the bio variables are not too onerous and the virus infection rate is under control.
What Bidens attitude vis a vis China & global trade will be i dont know but won't be as antagonistic as Trumps.

Covid-19
04:30

UK 544,275 (42,515)*
Indonesia 315,714 (11472)•

* 14,162 cases
* 70 deaths
• 4538 cases
• 98 deaths

Airlines & cruises rose on hopes that the House & Senate would approve a mini package of stimulus monies, $25bn for Airline Payrolls, $135bn for the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses and $1200 checks for Americans. Trump tweeted he was ready to sign but analaysts said there was only a 20% chance Congress would agree to the measures. Such is the 'skittishness' of equity mrkts the Dow jumped 400 on his tweet led up by Boeing, U.Health, Intel & 3M there were no fallers.

Advances on the Big Board beat declines by c.3-1, however both the Dow and 500 are hitting resistance levels. The 500 posted 40 new highs and no new lows as all 11 sectors were in the black. Q3 nos will be trickling through next week and are expected to be broadly 20% down y-o-y.

Selected gainers.
Amazon $3200 +100
Apple $115 +2
Goldman $204 +3
Msoft $210 +4
Nflix $536 +30
Tesla $427 +13
United $37 +2
Zoom $482 +4

DJ +531 (28306)
SP +58 (3419)
NS +210 (11,365)
R2 +34 (1611)
WTI $40•03
10y/tb 0•784%

Nos: Oil $42.12. Vix 28.
Gold $1889. Copper $3.019.
Palm $764. $1.293. €1.098.
IDR 14,723. MSCI(W) 576.
FF +5. DF +94.
Morning all.

160 paid.

US airlines tumbled on the ending of the 'stimulus package' talks between the Reds and the Blues of between 2% & 4%. News out of Boeing HQ where they predict demand for planes will be c.11% less over the next decade as airlines cut commercial flights.
Boeing estimates airlines will buy 18,350 planes over the next 10 years (majority short haul) and spend c $2.9tn. Currently air travel in the US is running 66% down and in a further blow American & United plan to furlough another 33,000 workers between them as their pledge to Congress to refrain from lay offs ended Oct, 1st. US air has had $bns in bail out monies and seek more.
Morning all.

3Q trading update might be reported first week of Nov. If so just before dealings in all the 'new' shares (8.367bn) hitting the mrkt on 12th, Nov. Be inneresting to see if they do.....