Member Info for JohnLewis79

Cans in the Churchyard for me now!!
We have one opposite my local, happy days...mind you the covid police will be on the lookout to boost their arrest/ fine commission nos. Great news for the Intemprement Societies as hundreds of pubs will be closing their doors forevermore. I'm reliably told a pub near me took £1200 last week it broke even for one and a half days a low 'open the door' cost as no sky tv is offered.

Here's the latest in my Borough. No meeting people from outside your household ........inside your local pub. You may huddle together outside in the cold that's fine. Starting this Friday ffs!! When is this madness going to stop?

A lot of pis have a big down on ftse 100 stocks and put their money anywhere but them. While the CAC 40 is in the ftse doghouse the DAX is only 5% lower ytd.
Kinda illogical as most ftse 100s make a goodly % of their earnings globally, RDSB, RR & Diageo to name but two but I get the sentiment. Just check TWTDTW every morning to see how badly they have performed since 2019.

Granted Brexit tanked sentiment in London mrkts and the good went down with the bad and now we have a Tory Govt acting like the wishy washy Liberals facing covid-19 with nary a clue as what to do. The uncertain hand on the tiller is spooking London mrkts (ftse off 23%) while the US, China & to a lesser extent Japan are posting historic high numbers, even the Mogadishu is positive.

Well, Boris got the job he wanted since a schoolboy but to be fair he has been dealt a rag hand since winning the election and its exposed his limitations in dealing with such crises, not that the other lot would have done any better. Had it been a little local difficulty he might have managed.
With so many small businesses lost forever and that's the bitter truth the economy is in for a rough few years to & past the next election.

My current +/- position here is -31% on £10ks worth and I consider that a result!!?.... Well, in a way I do, obviously +31% wudda been betta....
so God willing the - will turn into a + in short- ish order, one must have some 'hopism' eh? Another 25 will see me right. My break even is c.75'ish which I grant you looks a stretch from here but once the reins are loosed we could see a pretty swift about turn.

Can the jobbers or the bloody machines hinder progress much longer? Perhaps they can because 2 trades of c.£120,000 did sfa. However I think there was more to those trades than met the eye if you know wot I mean like?......

Here's another nos investors should be aware of regardless of whether REA's sp is akin to stealing sweets off children. Its our ever present debt. So here's the liquidity ratio nos which shows the ability of a Co to settle it's short term debt and that's important.
Current assets are divided by short term debt to give a number. If the number is over 1 the Co has more short term assets than short term debt a good position to be in. If the number is below 1 the opposite applies, not a good position to be in.

In REAs case the number is 0.62 so vulnerable to bumps in the palm oil economy (nos as of AR 2019) and forecast to be much better come year end. Given that's likely REA still looks ridiculously undervalued imo. Trouble is the mrkt thinks otherwise and you dont mess with them. Recent big buys give pis some reassurance. Even if the sp is in a Slough of Despond that's no reason to ignore the improving H2 fundamentals of cpo, output etc... is it?

Planters are expected to post much better Q3 nos driven by a 36% y-o-y rise in av cpo at RM2753. Net Q3 profits are forecast rising 7% on output up c.21%.
An RM100pt increase in cpo translates into a hefty contribution to the bottom line and in Sime Derbys case according to CGS-CIMB Research could mean a swing up or down of RM250m.
Top picks among Malaysian plantations are KLK and FGV.

No report this morning my mob blew a fuse wiping out my post. Anyway the bare bones:
At close:
DJ -166 (28,514)
SP -23 (3489)
NS -95 (11,769)
R2 -15 (1622)
WTI $41•10
10y/tb 0•721%

Nos $Oil $43.37. Vix 26.
Gold $1901. Copper $3.01.
Palm $801. $1.305. €1.107.
IDR 14,127. MSCI(W) 587.
FF -39. DF -85.
Morning all.

Covid-19
04:00

UK 654,644 (43,155)*
Indonesia 344,749 (12,156)•

* 19,724 cases
* 137 deaths
• 4127 cases
• 129 deaths

REA 167
CPO $557
Oil $59
Gold $1486
Ftse 7212
All 3982
DJ 27,025
$1•275
€1•156

Last ditch talks today (until the next) with the EU after Brussels vowed to ignore Boris 'gun to the head demands'. Maybe a clean break is best and we can get on with building Britain again.

............That was the day that was.........
I'll do the nos daily from today, hope you find it of interest.

REA sp 173
Cpo $556
Oil $60
Gold $1495
Ftse 7182
All 3971
DJ 27,026
$1.284
€1.155

Like the price to sales ratio for REA another metric favoured by investors is the price to book which can identify under valued companies. Generally a number under 1 is considered
an excellent pointer for a purchase (or a Co with problems) you have to decide.

REAs number is well under 1 at 0•2 which in effect means should the Co liquidate its assets paying off all debts the value remaining would be the book value. Obviously not in REAs case as the gap is unbreachable a crossing of 486p kinda like 20 marathons in duration. Can you wait that long? I sure cannot.

Indonesia supplies more than 50% of the world's palm oil and according to the CEO of the Indo Palm Oil Board output could climb to record levels in 2021 after La Nina rains drenched estates boosting yields.
Production is forecast to increase by c.4% to 49mt (47mt) next year. But the annual growth rate is slowing because plantations are not expanding, no new permits are being issued, RSPO certification requirements deter smallholders and estates only replanting 5% of the available acreage over price sustainability concerns had halted replanting, which imo is a false economy.

Indonesia needs to replant c.650,000 ha annually to maintain current output tonnage. Production peak will be in Q4 and output is expected to be c.12•7mt up 3%. Q4 and into Q1 2021 should produce decent nos for plantation companies, one in particular might break even or turn a coin come year close.

REA vol trades wk to date show gainers outnumbering decliners by 8:1. Anyone who thinks more buys than sells leads to an appreciating share price needs to check in here for a reality check.
As every expert says value will out in the longterm. Maybe but does that apply to the REA share price? Ring me if you know.

Covid-19
06:00

UK 634,920 (43,018)*
Indonesia 340,623 (12,027)•

* 17,232 cases
* 143 deaths
• 3906 cases
• 92 deaths

A near 160 pull back on the Dow hardly disturbed investors given the bad covid news, Apples disappointing response to its new 5G i phone, shares off 3% and Bank shares fell on earnings busting forecasts & lower loan reserves, Citigroup by 5% & JPMC 2%. BOA, Goldman, Wells Fargo and United Airlines report 3Q nos today.

Covid vaccine trials have been suspended by J&J and Eli Lilly on safety concerns which slammed cruise operators. R.Carribean fell 13%, Norwegian and Carnival 8%. Airlines slipped back 1-3%, Boeing the main drag on the Dow off $5 ($162) said deliveries of new planes was 50% lower than last year m-o-m. Hotels suffered falls, Hyatt dow 4%, Hilton 3, MGM Grand 2 and Marriott 2%.
Disney against the trend topped the big board up $3 to $129. It looks highly unlikely that any stimulus package will be agreed before the Nov election where Biden has been an 89-93% winner on the predictive mrkts, a shoo-in as next POTUS.
Decliners on the 30 outnumbered advances by 2:1 on a below average 8.50bn traded.
DJ -158 (28,680)
SP -22 (3512)
NS -12 (11,864)
R2 -12 (1637)
WTI $40•10
10y/tb 0•733%

Nos: Oil $42.37. Vix 25.
Gold $1999. Copper $3.050.
Palm $799. $1.294. €1.101.
IDR 14,743. MSCI(W) 589.
FF +24. DF +88.
Morning all.

181 in Noo York...

Late buys of 210,000 at 57 x 2 and an 80,000 at 56.88 trim the shares lower. At this rate I'll have to cut my year end no to 65.
In the last couple of days 710,714 buys have crossed the tape not moving the sp one iota. The jobbers must have a bottomless pit of stock to sell on the cheap or for reasons unknown this is being held back.
Be interesting to see if any TR1s appear shortly though combined the totals are below the declarable level if not Director buying. Whatever £240,000 value is chunky in REA landsphere.

UK jobless passes 1•5m (4.5%) and if forecasts turn out half ways accurate, 3m by Christmas of which over 300,000 are in the 16-24 age category. The BOE have pencilled in 7•5% by year end below the record high of 12% in 1984. The depression of the 1930s -1940s saw the jobless rate nearer 25%.
As Companies fall by the wayside in droves at least the ftse 250 (-17% ytd) mirrors the pain felt on Main St unlike the R2 in America down 1% which travels to different rules . Check out Edinburgh Woollen Mills heading into Admin putting 24,000 jobs at risk the latest of many. Vacancies may be up but try getting an interview let alone an acceptance letter.

How long can the Govt stall tax rises which need a £40+m plug now while rates are still zero'ish. It's right the Chancellor is spending heavily to keep as many people in work whatever the cost but soon those black holes in the public finances will need cementing and if rates are on the rise? On the face of things my High St looks busy'ish but I'd bet spend per head is on the floor. Mine is but that's due to less bottles of vino.
Goodness knows how families with kids and no earners or those on reduced incomes are coping. I fear the economy is in for years of pain and should a Labour Govt be elected what price the All and 250 if were not on the road to recovery by 2024?

Of the many ways one can value a company, price to sales is quick'n easy and indicates what the mrkt think the stock is worth.
Essentially a PTS under 1 is bargain basement territory because the Co is generating a lot of top line revenue or is paying less than a $ for a $ worth of sales compared to what the mrkt is pricing the stock.
Over 1 is good, over 4 is unfavourable. Perhaps not the best measure to value REA but the mrkt seems to have a measure no'one recognises, I call it the Mogadishu Method.