Member Info for JohnLewis79

You often hear people comment on seeing more planes in the sky, hmmm? I live right under the flight path into Heathrow and in years past on my walk to collect the morning paper I would count at least 8 planes lining up to fly over the Thames. Last few months hardly any. Perhaps there all going to Gatwick or Standstead?

I think nobulls comprehensive post on the various scenarios for the prefs illustrate what a 'messy' equity capital structure sheet REA has with all these $notes,£notes, bank borrowings and prefs. If your expecting to be rewarded anytime soon on repayment of the arrears better pray cpo heads over $800 and stays there.
Boards often say one thing and do the opposite. As for the prefs they need to keep lenders on side making cpo appreciation ever more crucial. Nobulls comment re 'going concern' must be considered though I think it's a long shot and a fire sale that's too awful to contemplate, again a long shot. Given REAs awful P&L history it's pretty amazing the Co has survived this long.

At c.£26m on a price to sales of c. 0.21 (below 1 is excellent value) predators (other Palmers or hedge funds even) are few if non existent. What one makes of that I dont know. I'm sticking with my YE forecast of 70-5 tops barring any 'Black Swan' event.

Latest $ GDP nos show a $2.1tn drop to $19.5tn between Q1 & Q2 (2020). The US economy is the sum of its parts, each State contributing to the total output.
Worst effected State was Hawaii a drop of 19% due to tourism woes and Utah the least a fall of 3%. US GDP slumped 31•4% between March & June as States like (Nevada) relying on accommodation, tourism etc bore the brunt. States reliant on Healthcare services came second and Delaware a financial services State gained 4•3% but was dragged down by others (accomodation) in the County. Drops by Selected States:
Nevada 15%
Michigan 7%
New York 6%
Nebraska 6%
Florida 5%
Cali 4%
Washington 4%
Texas 3%
Utah 3%

What concerns economists now is what happens if there is another 'wave' leading to further contractions?

Covid-19
GMT 5:00am

UK 617,688 (42875)*
Indonesia 336,716 (11,935)•

* 13,972 cases
* 50 deaths
• 3267 cases
• 89 deaths

There's no stopping US equity mrkts boosted yesterday by strong gains in Techs, Apple up $7 (new 5G i phone launch) & Msoft $6 better taking the Nsdq 296 points higher helping the 500 to a 6 a wk top. Amazon zoomed up over $177 pre their 48 hour Prime Day Sales bonanza where over 1,000,000 items will be heavily discounted.
Today will see Citigroup & JPMC kick start Q3 earnings along with Delta Airlines and J&J which overall are expected to be c.10% better than the negative 31% falls seen in Q1.

With just 20 or so days to the election the mrkts are pricing in a Biden win, hes a red hot 4/9f Trump out to 11/4.
The stimulus package is being held up by inter party wrangling the latest $1.9bn offer rejected by Pelosi. However should Biden prevail a generous package will passed tout suite as it's likely the Blues will control both Houses.
At close:
DJ +251 (28,838)
SP +57 (3534)
NS +296 (11,876)
R2 +12 (1649)
WTI $39.47
10y/tb 0•762%

Nos: $41.74. Vix 25.
Gold $1912. Copper $3.047.
Palm $793. $1.304. €1.106.
IDR 14,760. MSCI(W) 585.
FF +15. DF -34.
Morning all.

I look at a few the ones you mentioned and convert MR to USD but I now stick with investing.com and deduct c.$125 for an est 'achieved' price for my own calcs.

About time!

Jan 13, 2020.
Sp 184
Cpo c.$830

Oct 12, 2020
Sp 53
Cpo c.$804

Cpo down 3%
Sp down 73%

Covid-19
05:00

UK 603,716 (42,825)*
Indonesia 333,449 (11,844)•

* 12,872 cases
* 65 deaths
• 4497 cases
• 79 deaths

A solid start to the weeks action across S.E. Asia and the Pan Pacifics. Tokyo is off 100 (weak economic indicators) but both Shanghai's exchanges are up strongly reflecting Walls hoped for 'stimulus' gains on Friday. SK, Jakarta, Singapore & Australia are all in the black, Malaysia off 13.
New virus cases across the region total 138 out of a global total of 3921, of which 97 were in S.Korea. In China total deaths (4632) due to covid-19 have remained the same since mid May this year which partly explains their major stock mrkts out-performing the rest of the world and winning the global economic recovery.

Not sure Asia has quite caught on to the fact that Biden wants to undo Trumps tax cuts, the US election not a factor just yet but is definitely on investor radars as are Co 3Q nos. The 'Street" seems unphased about having a socialist leaning party running the country because contrary to popular belief investors have done better under Democrat Presidents 14% annual return to 11% for the Reds (the nos vary depending on what data is used & which study you read) nevertheless the blues have it, the blues have it.

To be fair the Red Presidents nos have suffered more due to the .com bust, 2008 crisis and covid. Since 1926 there have been 46 years of Red Presidents and 48 Blue.

At JST 11:30 am.
TK -75
HK +418
SH +75
SHZ +57
SK +10
JSX +38
ASX +11

Nos: Oil $42.53. Vix 25.
Gold $1934. Copper $3.075.
Palm $800. $1.303. €1.102.
IDR 14,721. MSCI(W) 585.
FF +4. DF +50.
Morning all.

Just back from my local which I'm horrified to learn has adopted Lambeth Council 'woe betide' rules. Here's the latest. I walk approx a mile or so through busy streets to arrive at my local. During this perilous journey I'm fighting off all sorts of venoms seeking to kill me and dodging all the scabrous virus infected maskless people roaming the streets. I arrive in one piece at my local....phew!! and I cudda caught the bus...Hist!

Having arrived outside my local I'm instructed to put on a mask as I enter the pub. Upon entering, I can take of my mask, sit down with my friends and have a beer or two chewing the fat for a few hours. Should I need to relieve myself I have to put on a mask to visit said toilet which ain't a mile away, just 5 paces. I can then take off my mask and return to my seat.
Should I need the 'offices' more than once..... repeat!
When I have had my fill and upon leaving I'm instructed to put on a mask until exiting the pub, just 10 paces away!
Now there's no way on God's earth I'm going to abide by such stupid and illogical rules. If I'm forced to do so it will be 24 cans and a doz bottles of plonk for me at home watching Neighbour's or such tripe.....NOT!
Afternoon all.

If any of you are interested in reading about the Far Eastern experience Anthony Burgess (Clockwork Orange) wrote the Malayan Trilogy wittily dissecting the racial and social prejudices of post Malay independence through a succession of colourful characters. Burgess worked in the Malay Colonial Service as an education officer from 1954-60.
Available on Amazon no doubt first published in 1956 but reprinted by Penguin in 1972 & 3. Maugham wrote many short stories about the East but imo the Malayan Trilogy is hard to beat.

I'll try and get rugs to tell us about his wild colonial boys experiences. He has worked all over Asia and the Far East.
We met regularly in Wimbledon for lunch and a bottle or two pre this bloody virus which has made visiting a pub an awful experience, my local excepted. One ghastly pub on the High St has a list of 7 rules you must obey before being seated! That pub is a day away from closing forevermore.

Fascinating article about the beginnings of H&C and how the Co evolved through trading commodities and becoming plantation owners. Thanx for that devonplay.
I left Malaya in 1970 ish i had my 'green card' extended a couple of years as no suitable replacement could be found but since then I lost touch with wild "colonial boys" life. I could not settle in the Uk and hankered for the plantation life.

I was offered a post with Firestone Rubber in Nigeria and thanks to advice from my father turned it down. A few months later the Biafran massacres took place right around the estate I would have been running. I doubt I would have lived through that tragedy. That was a wake up call that an 'Englishman abroad' the Tuan Besar life had ended.
Several of my friends from those years took different paths post Malaya. One
became a school teacher in Oxford and we met regularly until his death in the Phillipines, my pal from HC landed up in Australia, another to a career in S.Africa and my first Estate Manager retired with his Chinese wife to Dublin.
Many white planters suffered from the 'Far Eastern' madness marrying local girls having 'gone native.'
Sometimes I wish I had but as i said i probably wouldn't be here reminiscing about old times.

Agreed Kuvey buying in some of the £$ notes or restarting the pref payments
would be a plus. Bank debts the heaviest millstone round holders knecks will be reduced in the time honoured fashion and don't really worry me given the asset backing and hopefully increasing cash flows into H2 & (H1-2021).

Covid-19
06:00

UK 590,844(42,760)*
Indonesia 328,952 (11,765)•

* 15,165 cases
* 81 deaths
• 4294 cases
• 88 deaths

Thanks for that devonplay when I first went to Malaya my best friend worked on an H&C Rubber Estate in Johore (palm was in its infancy in dem days) not far from my first estate and easy access to KL for the wine, women & song!
H&C were considered among the top Rubber Companies in Malaya.
I would have joined them after leaving the Honkers & Shankers Bank but they messed me about so joined Boustead a smaller outfit with better prospects. Didnt happen as us English planters were kicked out under the Malayanisation of the Rubber Ind. I could have stayed had I married a local girl but I doubt I would have survived into my 40's given the amount we drank!

Haven't read the article yet, my nose buried in the Sporting Life sipping a pint of bitter trying to earn a coin....

Strange places equity mrkts I was always told that mrkts price stocks on the fundamentals first and foremost (how much money can the co make in the future) and then any nos of other considerations none of which said the former was a load of 'ollox'. So how come with cpo price now upsides of the $800 in January all London palm stocks are hugely down and have barely recovered and yea covid has shot holes in the nos but China is recovering strongly, prices are relatively stable and palm output is ahead of last year yet none of this is reflected in share values.

Ok I grant you REA debts might be a drawback but a 110p (£48m) drawback I think not and anyways the debt is manageable. The EVp/ha last I looked was $7500/ £200m value and now apparently all those $ have gone up in smoke, tanking REAs value to c.£26m. The collapse in REAs sp has enabled me to add to my holding but then I'm a believer. The market ain't and they are never wrong... right?

Agreed rugs, I just post the lse nos of which you know I'm extremely suspicious of, I'll leave it to others to figure out what they think the correct nos are, my guess 58-63.

Covid-19
05:00

UK 575,679 (42,679)*
Indonesia 324,658 (11,677)•

* 13,864 cases
* 87 deaths
• 4094 cases
• 97 deaths