Member Info for JohnLewis79

Have to say I'm disappointed that as of the YE 2019 no new planting has taken place. From afar that looks a bad call so the on ground issues must have delayed matters.
Now that the cpo price ytd averages c.$691 surely they should have been planting out the available acreage so were probably 2 years behind, in effect half way to producing ffbs. I know I would have been planting from Jan but definitely from spring / early summer. Did the virus kibosh planting? They said it had little impact on the estate workforce yet nothing was done. Every month that passes impacts on future revenues being delayed as only 130ha came into maturity in 2019.

From memory REA wanted to be 50,000ha fully planted by 2025 that looks a long way off now outside of a massive new plant program and I cant see that happening.

Yea agree with all your points especially controlling costs which essentially means cutting working costs/labour? Improving mill efficiency was one of their priorities if I remember correctly. As you say most of the nos surrounding REA are indeed perverse. Yesterdays price action made no sense and on cue we have a bounce back of sorts this am, entirely predictable. Cpo is holding up well nudging $800 thinking REA could achieve $650 ish av H2 which if the nos above improve will see a pretty dramatic turnaround barring the usual caveats..
As for 'capital transaction' what had you in mind?

Farting against thunder methinks rugs and the moaning of a pis doesnt cut much mustard in the City. If the cities reputation wasn't at an all'time low, certainly among pis then yesterdays 31,000 trades tanking the value of REA by 10% proved it. Trade value c. £16,000 mrkt value loss c.£2,700,000.
Mind you buyers of REA will be more than happy to top up. Guess you cant please all of the people....hey ho, an up day ahead?

Rea 164
Cpo $561
Oil $60
Gold $1496
Ftse 7260
All 4004
DJ 26834
NS 8120
$ 1.289
€ 1.159
IDR 14029

DJ +113 (28,309)
SP +16 (3443)
NS +38 (11,516)
R2 +4 (1618)
WTI $41•18
10y/tb 0•821%

Stimulus package hopes cont to drive equity mrkts with an agreement in sight by end of week. On a steady day for stocks 8/11 SP500 sectors were ahead at the close and 86% of reportee companies have topped earnings expectations.
The Nsdq100 up for the first time in 6 closed 38 up. The DofJ has filed an antitrust lawsuit against GOOGL for allegedly breaking the law by using its power to fend off rivals. Investors viewed this as no more than a 'techlash' against the Co. Litigation as in the last Govt battle with Msoft back in the 90s could last into the 2030s. GOOGL has a ton of money $100bn in cash to defend itself, shares closed up $41 to $1570. Pretty much a closing the door after the...

Flix tumbled $35 closing at $495 after Q3 subscriber nos signing up disappointed in the quarter, just 2•2m after 16m and 10m in Q1&2. Flix has been one of the bigest winners during the pandemic the stock has risen over 60% ytd. IBM off $8 ($117) props up the laggards on outlook uncertainties and Travellers up $6 to $118 topped the Big Board on improving catastrophe losses.

Nos: Oil $42.93. Vix 29.
Gold $1923. Copper $3•167.
Palm $795. $ 1.298. €1.109.
IDR 14,630. MSCI(W)580.
FF+10. DF +159.
Morning all.

Covid-19
05:00

UK 762,542 (43,967)*
Indonesia 368,842 (12,734)•

* 21,330 cases
* 241 deaths
• 3602 cases
• 117 deaths

I tell you what this sp has become a joke. Not REAs fault in that but allowing the Brokers to get away with making the companies share price a laughing stock. Just have a look at the days trade tally ffs. What is going on with this backwater stock surely headed for Aim status if I didn't know better. Questions need to be asked of the Co Brokers Mirabaud who obviously are the driving force behind these ridiculous trades and are hardly looking after their clients best interests. Time for a change Mr Robinow?

Sad to say Mirabaud are not bothered picking up hundreds of small lot sells for their own account ... I shoul'nt be surprised...not that it will do them any good as the sp heads to 40 or worse.
You know as I do that 50 is a complete nonsense now valuing REA at £22m on a good day! Will REA become the first ever stock to trade with a zero sp? Wonder what the spread would be? Minus 1 to 0•225? Will the jobbers pay us to take stock off their hands?

About time MPE took a few quid out of their petty cash and put REA holders out of their misery, a 70 a share offer should do the trick. Forget all that EV, NAV, ROCE, GPM cheap as chips nonsense. None of those works for me, uthis evening..
Evening all.

Overstayed my welcome at lunch which mainly consisted of completing the Torygraph cryptic, the easy and obscure sporting questions, a 'quid in the pot', winner takes all competition which is the highlight of the mornings drinking session. Easy for me as I knew the answer to the first question.

"Why was WG Grace not out in a County match having been bowled middle stump first ball"? Ring me if you know the answer. Here's a clue, the bowlers name was Mr Howzatt....or maybe not?
When I woke up I looked at the sp tumbling 10%, blimey i thought some poor demented soul had bid for the Co with hundreds of fake bids amounting to 'umpence' knocking 3 off the sp. Well, apparently not. Granted it keeps the spread in a narrow band of no value, which could suit some but really c'mon this is a total waste of everybody's time assuming the jobbers know what their doing and you gotta wonder?

Oh well, all's fair in love and sp's as no'one really believes mrkt caps of backwater REA type stocks are worth diddly squiddly in the covid era. We need to learn the difference between 'serious' companies and no hopers down the food chain where regrettably REA resides for better or worse. Realise that and your half way to making an informed decision on your next purchase. At current REA declining rate you best wait a week or so and pick up the stogie at 10 for one last puff.
Evening all.

No kulvey I live in sunny Saaarf London...I'm an early to bed early riser always have been...I think better and gives my system time to recover from the lunchtime sessions.
I wouldn't be too concerned about the cpo weakness unless it went sub $650.

Selected palm oil operators in Malaysia, Singapore & Indonesia for EV p/ha ($/ha).

6/2019
Walmar $49,549
Mpe $14,583
Rea $8337
Anglo $3507

Weighted average ex Wilmar total group operators.
$10,993.
Weighted average ex Wilmar
Indonesia operators.
$6839.

REA 2020E $p/ha forecast on 36,000 p/ha @ $7430 (468 est sp) back in June 2019 but likely revised upwards since
(Source Hardman).
Takes some believing given our current market value. The disconnect is surely too wide to be accurate but d'em be de nos bruvs.

Another metric where REA scores well is the GPM (gross profit margin ratio) which measures how efficiently a company uses its resources in the production process. It shows the % of net sales remaining after deducting costs of the end product.

In REAs case gpm is 52% ex dep & amor and other overheads but inclusive of distribution costs.
Unfortunately for REA other overheads drastically reduce the gpm for instance current liabilities, bank loans, notes, trade payables and tax but doesnt take away the excellent gpm palm to end user.
Nevertheless a 52% gpm is not to be sniffed at being at the upper level.
GPM is a good quick guide as they tend to remain stable over time. Sudden variations might 'red flag' problems in the business.

Mixed messages from the Far East and London put Wall on the back foot at opening the indexes fell throughout the day. The Dow tanked 411 just 56 off the low for the day its bigest drop since late Sept. There were no new 'headlines' to disturb investors perhaps election uncertainty as Bidens predictive poll nos slip to a 60% chance of the Blues in the White House. The impasse on the stimulus package needs to be signed off today for cheques to be posted out pre the election.

All 11 sectors of the SP500 closed lower led by high flyers Apple, Msoft & Amazon all off 2%. The fear gauge (Vix) closed higher for the 6th straight day as falls on the NYSE outnumbered advances on a 2.7 to 1 on a below average 8.7bn shares changing hands.

Chartists have pointed to the DJ Transportation Index (20 stocks inc airlines, shipping, trucking & logistics) hitting new highs has not been joined by the DJ Industrials yet to challenge its past peak and this is a warning sign of more volatility to come when the 2 disconnect. This is known as the Dow Theory the first investment system invented by Charles Dow. With his partner Edward Jones they started a financial information service in the 1880s and it survives to this day.
At close.
DJ -411 (28,195)
SP -56 (3427)
NS -193 (11,479)
R2 -20 (1614)
WTI $40•75
10y/tb 0•769%

Nos: Oil $42.35. Vix 29.
Gold $1904. Copper $3.085.
Palm $784. $1.295. €1.099.
IDR 14,711. MSCI(W) 579.
FF -20. DF +107.
Morning all.

Rea 164
Cpo $563
Oil $60
Gold $1496
Ftse 7261
All 4004
DJ 26834
NS 8120
$1.289
€1.159

Covid-19
03:30

UK 741,212 (43,726)*
Indonesia 365,240 (12,617)•

* 18,803 infections
* 80 deaths
• 3373 cases
• 106 deaths

Strange how pis sentiment changes. Back a few months when cpo was $600, everybody caught the buy buy buy REA virus and were piling in like there was no tomorrow. That did diddly for the sp..... moved it to 65'ish and then just as quickly as the buyers arrived they disappeared as did the sp.
No doubt some stayed on board on the.....just in case.....but the continuing dire state of the economy, infection spikes and jobless has proved 'risk off' for most buy and holders preferring to stay at home and watch. Day traders cont regardless of the economy or anything else. Volatility and volume are their watchword.
I cannot see the situation improving in the short term, I expect mrkts to tread sideways through 2021 unless an effective vaccine can be found and REA to continue its 2020 path however good the nos. Given I'm practically fully invested here and losing money I'm holding for now, just in case....

Chinas economy grew at c.5% in Q3 slower than forecast but well ahead of Q2 as the country returns to a near normal existence. Retail sales edged up by 3•3%. The urban jobless rate eased 0•2% to 5•4% in Sept.
In early dealings TK & HK made the running the Hang Seng boosted by a near 3% rise in HKSB. China's two exchanges flat on slightly disappointing data pertaining to inland companies drawing down on credit and lagging coastal companies in the Shanghai & Beijing surrounds. Pan Pacifics followed TKs lead with Australia up 65 on lockdown restrictions being eased in Melbourne.

News that Pfizer could have a vaccine ready by year end helped sentiment as 400,000 global infections a record for one-day was recorded by the WHO. Italy in particular suffering a large spike in cases. The UK preparing for a 'no deal' break from Europe did not register among Far East investors. S&P futures rose on hopes of an agreement being reached on the 'stimulus' before the election.

At 12:00am JST
TK +262
HK +214
SH +9
SHZ +7
SK +21
JSX +2
ASX +60

Nos:Oil $42.73. Vix 27.
Gold $1903. Copper $3.071.
Palm $789. $1•293. €1•104.
IDR 14,713. MSCI(W) 583.
FF -23. DF +62.
Morning all.

Rea 161
Cpo $558
Oil $59
Gold $1489
Ftse 7164
All 3965
DJ 26828
NS 8163
$1•298
€ 1•164
IDR 14,078

Covid-19
03:00

UK 722,409 (43,646)*
Indonesia 361,867 (12511)•

* 16,981 cases
* 67 deaths
• 4105 cases
• 80 deaths

Covid deaths per 100,000 people.

Spain 72
US 67
UK 65
Italy 60
France 50
Vietnam 0•04
S.Korea 0.9
NZ 0•5
Singapore 0•5
China •03

A few Pacific rim spots benefited from the extreme measures taken that no Western Democracy would bear. They became super vigilant from the beginning, massive lockdowns, no public transport and luckily few care homes for the elderly. Since then Beijing has taken a hammer to any sign of a cluster. The 'second wave' has proved no more than a trickle. When in Qingdao 12 cases were identified this month all 9m residents were tested. Respect for officials in the Far East is almost total and a large percentage of the pop will comply with draconian rules, unlike the UK.

One other factor that may explain the huge diff in cases per 100,000 between Asia and Europe is that Asia was well versed in dealing with respiratory virus infections whereas western healthcare is more geared to non-infection diseases like diabetes, heart & lung diseases, dementia to name a few and are out of practice in dealing with large scale epidemics.

Were closing down vast areas of the country, pubs, restaurants, putting people back on subsidies, effecting curfews and we face a miserable cold winter. While in Asia life is practically back to normal, air routes and borders are reopening, sport is played in front of crowds and music festivals on the go. Makes you wonder eh? Couldn't we have done much better?

India the worlds bigest importer of edible oils saw imports of palm oil fall 27% in Sept due to slack demand from Hotels & Restaurants while soyoil usage jumped 28% to 316,000 tonnes on higher household demand.
Total palm oil imports in Sept hit 644,000 tonnes down from
880,000 last year while sunflower oil plunged 47% to 68,000 tonnes. India imports soy from Brazil, Argentina & Ukraine.
India is the worlds 2nd most infected country with 7•5m cases and 114,000 deaths. Indicative nos only as reporting systems are not up to Western standards.