Member Info for JohnLewis79

Asia started the week (45) which spans the US election in volatile but mostly positive trading. Economic data out of China largely discounted, saw manufacturing output rising at its fastest pace in a decade. Stocks in Tokyo jumped over 300 & HK 220 better, China exchanges marked time. Pan Pacifics were mixed 2 up, 2 down. Ytd's only Shanghai, SK & Taiex are in the black, all the Pan Pacifics show red numbers. Some key events this week:

* Monday. Co earnings inc Nintendo, Softbank, Toyota, Alibaba & AZ.
* Tuesday US election.
* Wed EIA crude inventory.
* Thrs Fed policy decision.
* Fri US job report.

US infections hit 99,000 on Friday and over 1000 deaths were reported both one day records. Dr Fauci said the "US was in for a whole world of pain" as winter approaches. England faces a one month lockdown on Thursday.
Wall St has become immune to the daily drip of rising cases and fatalities thinking the virus will run its course and die out. Crude (WTI) slumped to a 5 month low of $33.64, on fuel consumption worries. The USD was flat against a basket of currencies.

Nos: Oil $36.72. Vix 38.
Gold $1883. Copper $3.046.
Palm $814. $1•293. €1•110.
IDR 14,677. MSCI(W) 551.
FF -31. DF +32
Morning all.

UK 1,034,914 (46,717)*
Indonesia (unavailable)

* 23,254 cases
* 162 deaths.

Covid-19
10:00

UK 1,011,660 (46,555)*
Indonesia 412,784 (13,943)•

* 21,195 cases
* 326 deaths
• 5839 cases
• 161 deaths

Covid-19
04:30

UK 989,745 (46,229)*
Indonesia 406,945 (13,782)•

* 24,405 cases
* 274 deaths
• 2897 cases
• 81 deaths

October is a scary month in most investors minds associated as it is with crashes ('29,'87), I remember both! As we know overall there are worse months but tell that to the man in the street. This October started well, on the way to a small gain until this week. Here's the Oct nos.

MSCI(W) -2%

Ftse -289 (5%)
All -131 (4%)
250 -101 (1%)
SC +52 (1%)
Aim -11 (1%)

DJ - 1280 (5%)
SP -93 (3%)
NS -255 (2%)
R2 +30 (2%)

TK -1%
HK +3%
SH +•27%
SHZ +2%
SK -3%
TAIX +•25%
JSX +5%
ASX +2%

Cpo +8%
Brent -10%
Gold -1%
Copper +2%

Investor sentiment took another bashing yesterday as big techs were dumped wholesale. Apple off 6%, Twitter 21%, Fbk down 6% & Amazon 5% which trades on a stratospheric 120x earnings. All tech is being repriced session by session the only question is how much lower can they go? The Nsdq 100 fell 5% on the week its worst since March. All 3 major indexes tumbled for the 2nd week despite positive economic data which is backward looking. The US consumer is dipping into savings to spend which is never a good sign as Wells Fargo CEO said last week "our customers are running on empty."

Companies reporting were mixed, Chevron surprised with a 141% eps beat, revs down 26% but Exxon a loss for the Q of $680m (3•2bn profit) and will cut its workforce by 15%. Both are recovery plays on the pandemic ending. Cruise companies ticked up c.5%-6% as the CDCs (no sail orders) expired allowing them to start phased passenger operations. The Fed also lowered the min loan amount to businesses to $100,000 from $200,000 as take up had been very poor, just $4bn out of a $600bn capacity had been taken up. Businesses were loathe to take on more debt to bolster the loss of revenues.

Volume on the NYSE was 10bn and fallers outpaced risers 2:1. Apple ($109) & Boeing ($144) propped up the losers on the big board headed by IBM ($112).
At close.
DJ -158 (26502)
SP -40 (3270)
NS -274 (10,912)
R2 -23 (1538)
WTI $35.67
10y/tb 0• 879%
MSC1(W) 551
Morning all.

Another excellent wk for cpo closing at $817 up $15 on the wk taking the ytd av to c.$697 ($538). REA ticked up a couple on the bid (54•5) on c.144,271 traded.
Anglo (467) lost 14, Mpe 570 & Dkl 2•60 both unmoved. KLPI fell 53 on the week and remains 12% down ytd.

Until they move the bid down! But I'm here till at least the results so daily moves mean little. I might get twitchy at 75 heh,heh,heh....

Investors who sold in May & came back on St Ledger day came unstuck this year as evidenced below. I don't think in this day and age anyone seriously follows that old wives tale but if one did?

Ftse +109
All +93
250 +1167
DJ +4058
SP +532
NS +2562
REA +3

I will do the October nos later mainly as a friend of mine caught out in the '87 crash swore he would never buy or trade shares in October. I know for sure he has stuck rigidly to his rule. He's made a mint since those days so a month off has not hindered him.

Going down again as Dow futures have slumped 400+ and yer usual Fri sell off exacerbate matters. Tough times for those chancing their arm in these mrkts.

Both!

The ftse has long been in correction territory, more like a triple correction now 27% off high back in January. Ytd the 100 is down 26% (1960 points)

If you take the more representative 250 trading at 17,178 its 4705 points (21%) lower ytd and you have to go back to 2018 when it last traded in the 1700s. Essentially it's gone nowhere in over 2 years but to be fair covid accounts for 4000 of the fall.
Investors exposed to the 250 will be ruing their decision to hold when the "little local difficulty" closed China from the outside world. Eight months later the "little local difficulty" developed into a pandemic which poleaxed global mrkts, bankrupted companies and put millions out of work.

Rea 171 (55)
Cpo $590 ($823)

Oil $61
Gold $1513
Ftse 7302
All 4023
DJ 27,347
SP 3067
NS 8386
$1•293
€1•159
IDR 14,035

Covid-19
04:30

UK 965,340 (45,955)*
Indonesia 404,048 (13,701)•

* 23,065 cases
* 280 deaths
• 3565 cases
• 89 deaths

The Dow took one look and jumped off the cliff spiraling down 230 then whipped back up nearly 400 to steady mrkt nerves. These crazy gyrations often occur as the bulls exhaust themselves charging red flags and bears claws is often a sign of the bulls capitulating.
A 3Q record GDP up 33% annualised stopped the rot following consumer spending up 40% mostly from the "stay at homes.' New jobless claims while not exactly headline grabbing was at least lower than expected at 770,000. The mrkt took some comfort from these, briefly forgetting increasing infections and headed up 200 after lunch.
Companies reporting inc Kellogg their 3Q nos surprised on the upside and raised their F/Y guidance. Kraft Heinz beat expectations for revs & profits also raising outlook for 2021. WB will be pleased he has a 325•4m holding.

Investors bought into Apple, Amazon & Google ahead of nos being reported after the close. Apple topped the big board as sales just beat forecasts at $64bn, i phone nos fell 21% (delayed launch) shares down $5 to $110 after the close. Amazon off $60 to $3151 despite a $27bn rise in Q3 e-com sales to $96bn and hiring 400,000 people this year. Google saw sales jump 6bn to $46bn mainly from strong ad revenue, shares flew up $101 to $1658 after the close. Fbk revs rose 11%, net profit and margin 28%, shares fell $7 to $273 after hours on downbeat comments.

Nearing the close the 30 was 240 ahead on a topsy turvy 600 points range on the session but fell off in the last half hour traders trimmed gains expecting a poor start for equities on Friday as the Dow re-enters correction territory. Risers beating fallers by 2:1 on 9.7bn traded on NYSE.
DJ +139 (26,659)
SP +39 (3310)
NS +181 (11,186)
R2 +18 (1562)
WTI $36.36
10y/tb 0•816%

Nos: Oil $38•44. Vix 38.
Gold $1877. Copper 3•079.
Palm $822. $1•294. €1•106.
IDR 14,670. MSCI(W) 557.
FF +21. DF -171.
Morning all.

The WWF based in Washington USA, expect food prices to increase 400% by 2030 so logically you should be long food, short oil, utilities and Bonds, essentially betting against the crowd. That's good for soft commodities. We can cut down on most stuff but food while 'going cheaper' works you still have to buy the stuff.

The Sage of has recently bought stakes in the top 5 sojo shosa Jap trading conglomerates stuffed full of food/agri stocks (he has a farm, or did have) so not unusual in that he tends to invest in the tried, trusted and boring....mostly. Is he jumping the gun fearing this 10yr+ bull mrkt is in its death throes and wants exposure to Asian agri via a fund owning decent %s in companies kinda like an S&P500 tracker?

The 500 has been climbing at c.11% since the 2000s the Nsdq double that while global growth & Co profits came nowhere near to those nos. Like Main and Wall the disconnect is staggering so sooner or later something has to give as the aftermath of covid, the cure being worse than the disease will see wreckage strewn everywhere being picked up by opportunists. Palm will be a beneficiary of the meltback assuming the WWF are even half right as world pop grows more mouths need feeding and supply will inevitably grow to meet demand. The stock mrkt don't see it that way atm and they are always right.... yea?

REA might be a nanocap worth diddly but people nearer the action don't see it that way. I agree and have added.

Well yea I agree...a Director shareholder buying usually.....but they would wouldn't they? That's a cynical view and one I dont subscribe to because if the co finances were in such dire straits they wouldn't would they?
Unless cpo hits $1000 the arrears will be settled in orderly fashion no need to settle up in one hit.
Whatever, the omens look good for the short term through Q1 2021, thereafter much depends on covid and the global economy improving. No idea where the mrkts will be or what price REA will trade at, higher hopefully after the annual results which could still present on the upside as long as no out of company control event knocks cpo demand or an FX swing costs the company. I'm nearly in the profit column, it's going to be close +/- a couple of $m.

Wherever you put your money it's going to be risky in irrational mrkts where the good go down with bad, often unrelated to fundamentals.
That leaves you with just 2 choices. Stay out or stay the course with REA.
REA is very much stay the course no'one is getting rich here anytime soon. A double bagger for me would need the sp to hit 140s. Currently can you see that happening? Back in the day yes, now hmmm?.

Action on the Prefs is welcome after all they followed the Ords on the way down so might drag them on the way back up? One thing for sure money in the bank is increasing, a rarity these days, even cash flow could be positive and nobody has stopped buying palm oil. In fact India which needs c.600,000t a month to satisfy current usage is 'upping' purchases as is China.

I reckon palm oil will be the only soft or hard commodity to show an annual gain this year outside of one you have never heard of. That tells you something.

Steady trading in Asia as Dow futures point to a 260 turnaround at open and London opening up a weak 16. The background is awful in Europe with France going into another full lockdown. What price anything in the UK if London gets closed down?
They might tell you the recovery has started but I see no evidence of this on the High St.
So far Agri shares have held up but they have had their crash, REA certainly and limp along ignoring the cont good rise in cpo prices infected in the main by the overall downbeat sentiment among investors because of covid. Until this changes I see the sector flat for the remainder of the year. If your in for the next 3 years 55 looks well cheap to me as surely by then we would have got over the worst of covid. What the economy will look like then noone knows but better than now methinks.

Richard Robinow has as a PCA (person closely associated?) bought more of the Prefs so he must see dividend pay outs resuming next year. Patience has it's own rewards!

Rea 171 (54•75)
Cpo $582 ($815)

Oil $62
Gold $1513
Ftse 7248
All 3993
DJ 27,046
SP 3038
NS 8296
$1•294
€1•161