Member Info for JohnLewis79

All the more reason to invest here. Blood on the streets etc...? Well perhaps not, unless your very thick skinned and have the patience of Job who I remind you was tested by Satan (the mrkts) to stay the distance.

Ytd a rough guide to 'Days taken through'

$500-$600 (5)
$601-$700 (100)
$701-$800 (68)
$801-$900 (on'-going)

Palm backing off the roundophobia $900? Streaked through the $700 and $800s so fully expect $900 to fall anytime soon. Will it make any diff to the sp? Whadda you think?

Not all is doom 'n gloom at REA. The Prefs have had a decent spike to 70•75 that's a 27% 1 month gain and 21% on a 3 month look. The 'Ords' very much out of fashion languish not far off historic lows and if you look on TWTDTW the sp runs 69% down while cpo runs c.33% up.

Such is life the mrkt was never meant to be fair, you must decide whether what's on offer is to your liking or not. So far I have to say REA at 52-57 is not appealing to many as sentiment towards the palm oil industry is horrid, always has been and that's a difficult hurdle to overcome whatever the fundamentals say. With few buyers about and no Ord dividend to tide pis over the global equity gloom advancing from here is going to be a slog.

Palm at $1000, Rea Ords at sub 70? Entirely possible. I cannot think what the mrkt was doing pricing REA at 171 cpo $640 just one year back. Was the mrkt out of whack back then and we didn't know it?

Covid-19
05:00

UK 1,233,775 (49,770)*
Indonesia 444,348 (14,761)•

* 20,412 cases
* 532 deaths
• 3779 cases
• 72 deaths

Rea 171 (53)
Cpo $644 ($893)

Oil $62
Gold $1462

Ftse 7351
All 4049

DJ 27,784
SP 3094
NS 8482

$1•283
€1•167
IDR 14,081

Mondays announcement by Pfizer & German partner BioNTech was a massive boost of confidence to investors and all round mrkt sentiment. US Health Sec Azar said vaccinations could start as early as next month. Back in March the indexes had tumbled to year lows as covid tanked global mrkts and infections spread unchecked throughout the world. Many called the Dow below 15,000 and worse.

The turnaround in 8 months has been remarkable the Dow has gained 53%, Nsdq 68%, Small Caps 74% and SP 59%. JPMC is calling 4500 for the 500 in 2021. Despite the huge loss of life and jobs the economy is slowly coming off the Fed life support machine.

Yesterday equities were mixed the 30 & R2 added 263 and 32 the 500 & Nsdq slipped back a touch. Investors continue to support beaten down sectors. The 'Herd' are buying Energy, Small Caps & Cyclicals, selling Amazon, Msoft & Fbk all off c.3% with big falls seen in other pis faves Nvida & Advanced Micro Devices. Pis 'Pop' stocks Netflix & Tesla added $9 & a $.

News of the vaccine breakthrough has energised Planes, Trains & Automobiles because people will be more confident to resume travel, holidays and cruises. However infections stayed above 100,000 for the 6th straight day and hospitals are at capacity. Biden is right to put the fight against covid top of his priorities.

NYSE risers led by Walgreen & Boeing outpaced losers 2:1 on 12•6bn volume.
Laggards inc Msoft, Amex & Nike.
DJ +263 (29421)
SP -5 (3546)
NS -16 (11,554)
R2 +32 (1737)
WTI $41•87
10y/tb 0•979%

Nos: Oil $44•09. Vix 24•87.
Gold $1877. Copper $3•162.
Palm $895. $1•327. €1•219.
IDR 14,079. MSCI(W) 601.
FF -8. DF +77.
Morning all.

Vaccine news did little for palm stocks, why should it? Infections in Indonesia and Malaya are a fraction of those in Europe and the US and REA have said covid has not affected output or been significant among the workforce.
Most sectors got the vaccine vault yesterday, pity we could not celebrate with a pint & a pie down the local but that's against the 'Rule of Bozo'.

Not looking good for an up start as the Dow came off 500 in the last hour. Current projection the ftse to open 84 lower. I used to do a REA sp v cpo metric for my own amusement. At best it was c.4x, it's now out to 15x. To get back to 4x the sp would have to be c.215. That REA 200 sp crops up a lot in 'fair value' nos whatever that may mean.

Indonesia has officially entered into recession after its GDP shrank 3•5% for the second successive quarter on an annual basis for the July-Sept period. The Govt have appointed two Ministers to oversee the need to increase renewable energy mix to 23% by 2025, currently just 9% come from this source.

The new Minister in charge will be tasked to raise oil production to 1m bopd by 2030. Current output is 706,000 bopd. It looks as though there has been no slowing down of the B30/40 program but the %s could be trimmed if cpo runs into the 900s.

Covid-19
05:00

UK 1,213,363 (49,238)*
Indonesia 440,569 (14,689)•

* 21,350 cases
* 194 deaths
• 2853 cases
• 75 deaths

Rea 173 (54)
Cpo $644 ($886)

Oil $62
Gold $1455

Ftse 7365
All 4061
DJ 27621
SP 3092
NS 8486

$1•286
€1•167
IDR 14,055

News that the Pfizer/BioNtech phase 3 vaccine trials were effective in 90% of cases tested without damaging side effects, set the ftse 100 alight this morning jumping 170 on the news. However caution is advised that it's not the ultimate game changer as Pfizer has not yet published the full data & late stage trials continue.

Nevertheless this is a very good day for science and humanity, a day to celebrate. Pfizer (US) said c.30m doses would be ready this year and 1•36bn doses next year should it gain emergency approval from the FDA. Rolling out the vaccine will take time probably well into 2021/2 until we are all tested. Currently the US is recording 100,000 cases a day. Was the vaccine news deliberately delayed till after the election? Guess we'll never know but it sure looks that way to me, one for the conspiracy theorists.

Dow futures got the message calling the DJI up 1300+ at open. As the bell sounded it streaked 1013 and zoomed to an intraday high of 29,934 up 1610 before 10:am. Prices have come off at lunch but are still over 1000 ahead.
Airlines were buoyant all gaining between 11% & 14% but Cruises were the big winners surging ahead and by lunch RC was up 23%, Carnival 32% & Norwegian 22%. Amex up 18% topped the big board, other double digit winners were Boeing 12%, Chevron 11% & JPMC 11%. Going down Big Mac, Home Depot and P&G.

'Stay at home' stocks in the vanguard this year tumbled, Amazon down 5%, Netflix fell 6% and Zoom 12%. Gold tumbled $93 (5%) but crude gained 7% the sector the best performer on the 500. Risers outpaced losers by 3:1 on NYSE, 17bn shares changing hands helped by a steady sell off in the pm session mostly among techs which have been funding purchases of other company stocks these last few weeks.
At close:
DJ +834 (29,158)
SP +41 (3550)
NS -181 (11,714)
R2 +60 (1705)
WTI $39•64
10y/tb 0•919%

Nos: Oil $41•91. Vix 26.
Gold $1882. Copper $3•139.
Palm $882. $1•319. €1•114.
IDR 14,033. MSCI(W) 600.
FF -86. DF -200.
Morning all.

Trump sulking in the Fawlty Towers of Manhattan still refuses to concede defeat. He remains President for the next 70 days so time is on his side to get up to all sorts of mischief. He will certainly attempt to fill any vacant posts in Congress with 'red' supporters. He could go on a vindictive "your fired" spree and attempt to ram through executive orders.
Most importantly as President he is immune from prosecution while in office and might even try and pardon himself as he faces a number of investigations into his conduct, alleged obstruction of justice, tax fraud etc...
That's never been done before but constitutionally its possible for a President so to do. However this would be tantamount to admitting guilt which might not bother him.
Followers of US politics are in for a very interesting couple of months with 2 Presidents running the Country.

In a list of the top 10 most influential values we hold dear, how many did you select? Make a list and check your score. Data collected over 500,000 surveys in 152 languages and 56 values that drive all human behaviour.

My score 3*/10.

1) Family*
2) Relationships
3) Financial security*
4) Belonging
5) Community
6) Personal growth
7) Loyalty
8) Religion
9) job security*
10) Personal responsibility.

Here's a selection of others 5* of which would have been in my top 10.

13) health*
16) compassion
19) honesty*
21) education*
32) happiness*
40) generosity
51) peace*
55) freedom of speech*
56) determination

Rea 173 (54)
Cpo $643 ($877)

Oil $62
Gold $1456

Ftse 7329
All 4044
DJ 27,691
SP 3087
NS 8464

$ 1•280
€ 1•162

Covid-19
05:00

UK 1,192,013 (49,044)*
Indonesia 437,716 (14,614)•

* 20,572 cases
* 156 deaths
• 3880 cases
• 74 deathsCovid-19
05:00

UK 1,192,013 (49,044)*
Indonesia 437,716 (14,614)•

* 20,572 cases
* 156 deaths
• 3880 cases
• 74 deaths

Bouyed by Bidens victory stocks marched higher across Asia this morning. In Tokyo the Nikkei hit its highest level since 1991 sensing a new concilatory direction by the US. Bidens priorities are to tackle the spread of covid-19 and get the stimulus package signed off and delivered. At the moment the House is blue and the Senate split 48-48.

The Nikkei hit a high of 24,952 up 628 at lunch and c.8600 above the 52 wk low. However it's way below the record close of 38,916 set in Dec,1989. Motors a symbol of Japanese excellence boosted sentiment as Honda revised earning upwards, shares up 10% after Toyotas good nos on Friday. Co profits are recovering faster than expected especially among the hospitality sectors and renewable energy the next big thing, has seen strong gains, Renova up 6%, West added 10% and Erex 7%. Data out of China on Sat cheered investors as export trade rose over 11%.

Japan Airlines soured the bullish mood as the Co unveiled plans to raise $1.6bn via the issue of new shares. Stock fell 15% its lowest since listing in 2012. Like global airlines covid-19 has decimated the long haul industry.
At 1:30 JST.
TK +638 (24,963)
HK +417
SH +63
SHZ +54
SK +35
JSX -4
ASX +103

Nos: Oil $40•54. Vix 25.
Gold $1965. Copper $3•179.
Palm $877. $1•318. €1•108.
IDR 14,087. MSCI(W) 593.
FF +78. DF +380.
Morning all.

Amazon scoops the Pools again! Bezos & Boris doncha just luuurve them! This crazy 2nd lockdown is playing straight into the e-tailers hands. How come Sainsbury's can sell clothes but Primark & JD Sports have to close their doors? Just one of many anomalies. Large Drapery stores had stocked up for the Nov- Dec festive spending period only for Bozo to yank November's revenues away not to mention having to lay off or furlough staff again!

Relations between Business and the Govt is at an all time low. Mark's & S one of the great British institutions laid low by covid posted its first H1 loss ever just as Amazon posted a 37% rise in global sales to $96bn. Amazon paid £63m in business rates in 2018, Sainsburys £567m. Amazon paid £293m in UK taxes last year on $17.5bn sales. Amazon it has to be said is creating jobs, 10,000 this year and 20,000 temps to cope with Christmas demand. How secure these are remains to be seen.

The effect is spreading to delivery companies and couriers who have taken on 20,000 extra staff much of it to cope with Amazons Christmas bonanza and the 19m UK Prime loyalty customers signed up by Bezos. Stores trying to jump on the e-tailer bandwagon will be hit by capacity constraints and Amazons dominance of same day delivery.
Its estimated that the High St has lost over 36,000 stores in the last 2 years unable to compete with the Amazon Goliath. As stores worry how to shift Xmas stock Amazon plan to open dozens of checkout free 'click & go' stores on the High St just as our traditional ones leave the place empty. That's show business folks.

........Hows this for a long shot punt.......
Trump resigns & Pence takes over for a month. He then pardons Trump, who gets a 'get out of jail' free card. Heh,heh,heh.

Dont know if any of REA holders ever check out British Bulls Signals on stocks? I used to read their recomends back in the day.

Their current opinion on REA is to 'stay in cash' following the sell advice at 54. Not what I would recommend as i hold on the fundamentals, not squiggly line theory. Perhaps that's why I never make money?