Member Info for JohnLewis79

FGV the largest palm oil producer in Malaysia (Sabah mainly) which is in partial lockdown, see Q4 nos worsening due to harvesting being disrupted due to poor weather conditions. They estimate ffbs & output to fall c.4% and the cpo price to be in the 2500-2600 ringgit range in H1 2021 way below current 3327r ($811).

FGV posted a 3Q profit of 136mr net profit (262m rL) on revenues of R4bn and warned that covid and worker shortage the company is 2700 short of a full complement will continue into next year.

Not the euphoria of Wall, Asian mrkts trend lower to mixed. Both Shanghai bourses, SK and Singapore are lower. Tokyo, Australia, other Pan Pacifics are in the black but nothing to write home about.
Nevertheless the ftse is called up 20 at opening and the Dow could see some profit taking ahead of Thanksgiving on Thursday and a half day on Friday. With Wall closed tomorrow the ftse will have no leads to follow other than Tokyo which hit a 52wk intraday high but tumbled c.500 from lunch and looks lower towards Fridays close.

Rea 173 (55)
Cpo $665 ($900)

Oil $63
Gold $1455

Ftse 7430
All 4108
DJ 28,164
SP 3154
NS 8705

$ 1•295
€ 1•176
IDR 14,095

Covid-19
06:00

UK 1,538,794 (55,838)*
Indonesia 506,302 (16,111)•

* 11,299 cases
* 608 deaths
• 4192 cases
• 109 deaths

A day of records, the Dow crossed 30,000 for the first time and the R2 hit a peak as Investor enthusiasm swept mrkts on vaccine news, recovery hopes for 2021 and Biden being handed the reins of power by the GSA Admin.

Cyclicals led the way the industrial sector hitting a record high as 10/11 SP sectors gained. While 30,000 means nothing to professional investors it's a psychological milestone for many pis.
Global mrkts rallied the ftse recorded it's best week since April but is 1110 down ytd, no NASDAQ here and AZ our bigest pharma has lost £4bn since reporting lower efficacy rates than its US competitors. The relentless wave of covid-19 infection rates across America sees no sign of slowing down. The Govt plans to release 6m doses of the vaccine in the first stage as soon as FDA approval is granted, expected in Dec.

Tesla continued its record run adding another $41 to $562 boosting its mrkt cap to over $500bn thats more than Astra Zeneca, RDSA+B & HSBC combined. Fundamentals are truly for the birds. The other pis fave Boeing added $7 to $218 as the Max was given flight clearance by Euro regulators. Chevron topped the big board as the oil price cleared $45 followed by JPMC, GS and Walt. Only 3 losers Merck, P&G and Amgen. Volume on the NYSE hit 14•2bn advances leading decliners by 3:1 and 56 stocks hit new 52wk highs, no new lows.

DJ +455 (30,046)R
SP +58 (3635)
NS +156 (12,037)
R2 +35 (1854)R
WTI $45•39
10y/tb 0•889%

Nos: Oil $48•15. Vix 22.
Gold $1801. Copper $3•305.
Palm $903. $1•335. €1•121.
IDR 14,162. MSCI(W) 610.
FF +28. DJ +27.
Morning all.

Succinctly put nobull. The shares will wander about aimlessly until we get a clearer picture of how much extra cash from operations is being used to pare down debt. Let's hope for $30-40m or thereabouts.
Unfortunately we will have to wait till Feb 2021 for the next Trading update. Much will depend on the debt number. The sooner this ii moves on the better if indeed it is Artemis doing the selling, they had 2•4m or did have at one time. Cannot think who else it might be and is probably a drag on the sp going forward. No doubt the Ribinows are active in the mrkt on the buy side one would think. Whatever at 54 the sp is pretty much at rock bottom and regardless of the debt situation which will be manageable the shares offer good longer term value out to 2022. One for the brave methinks.

Rea 175 (54)
Cpo $669 ($908)

Oil $64
Gold $1460

Ftse 7403
All 4093
DJ 28,122
SP 3141
NS 8648

$ 1•286
£ 1•166
IDR 14083

Covid-19
05:30

UK 1,527,495 (55,230)*
Indonesia 502,110 (16,002)•

* 15,450 cases
* 206 deaths
• 4442 cases
• 118 deaths

Cyclicals, Energy, Financials and Industrials had a good day boosted by vaccine news. Energy up 7% as crude cleared $43 and financials put on 1% as monthly business activity expanded at the fastest rate in 5 years. Techs were under pressure from the bell, Apple & Netflix off 3% with small losses in the FAANGs.

High efficacy rates in vaccine trials boosted Cruise and Airline stocks. Astra Zeneca & Oxford University which has developed a cheaper version became the 3rd inoculation revealed to be 90% effective in trial data. Hopes are for the vaccine process to usage will be ready by Dec. Distribution will be carried out by each State. California has instituted a stay at home policy and Nevada further restrictions on Casinos, Hotels etc due to infections rising over 170,000 a day for the past week.

The market got a 200 lunchtime boost when Biden announced Janet Yellen a 'Big Name' would become the next Treasury Sec. She was reserve Fed Chair from 2014-2018 and a known name to Wall St. She will be the first woman to hold the job.
Topping the big board Chevron, Boeing and Walt heading South Apple ($113), J&J and P&G.

Pis fave Tesla jumped $40 to $530 now nearing $500bn mrkt cap. Back in January it was worth $80bn and following a succession of good news stories capped by entry into the Fortune 500 Tesla now trades on 14 x its annual revenue! If you do the PE/r its nearer 1000x. Investor are buying the story, the future.... the fundamentals are for the birds.

Vols on NYSE were 12•1bn risers outpacing decliners by 3:1 with 31 new 52 wk highs on the 500 and no new lows.
DJ +328 (29,951)
SP +20 (3578)
NS +26 (11,881)
R2 +34 (1818)
WTI $43•41
10y/tb 0• 866%

Nos: Oil $46•45. Vix 23.
Gold $1822. Copper $3•275.
Palm $908. $1•337. €1•125.
IDR 14,181. MSCI(W) 610.
FF+28. DF +264.
Morning all.

Cyclicals, Energy, Financials and Industrials had a good day boosted by vaccine news. Energy up 7% as crude cleared $43 and financials put on 1% as monthly business activity expanded at the fastest rate in 5 years. Techs were under pressure from the bell, Apple & Netflix off 3% with small losses in the FAANGs.

High efficacy rates in vaccine trials boosted Cruise and Airline stocks. Astra Zeneca & Oxford University which has developed a cheaper version became the 3rd inoculation revealed to be 90% effective in trial data. Hopes are for the vaccine process to usage will be ready by Dec. Distribution will be carried out by each State. California has instituted a stay at home policy and Nevada further restrictions on Casinos, Hotels etc due to infections rising over 170,000 a day for the past week.

The market got a 200 lunchtime boost when Biden announced Janet Yellen a 'Big Name' would become the next Treasury Sec. She was reserve Fed Chair from 2014-2018 and a known name to Wall St. She will be the first woman to hold the job. Topping the big board Chevron, Boeing and Walt heading South Apple ($113), J&J and P&G. Pis fave Tesla jumped $40 to $530 now nearing $500bn mrkt cap. Back in January it was worth $80bn and following a succession of good news stories capped by entry into the Fortune 500 Tesla now trades on 14 x its annual revenue! If you do the PE/r its nearer 1000x. Investor are buying the story, the future.... the fundamentals are for the birds.

Vols on NYSE were 12•1bn risers outpacing decliners by 3:1 with 31 new 52 wk highs on the 500 and no new lows.
DJ +328 (29,951)
SP +20 (3578)
NS +26 (11,881)
R2 +34 (1818)
WTI $43•41
10y/tb 0• 866%

Nos: Oil $46•45. Vix 23.
Gold $1822. Copper $3•275.
Palm $908. $1•337. €1•125.
IDR 14,181. MSCI(W) 610.
FF+28. DF +264.
Morning all.

Some, or rather one cancelled trade popping up here. Why not, everything else has...

We know prices of stocks, commodities, currencies and anything else you care to mention go down a bloody sight quicker than they go up.
Fair enough if your in profit best take it before its snatched away by a trader. Take cpo it took 16 days to go from $801-$900 and less than 10 days to fall below $900, not just yet but headed that way, $908 atm (day 9). Closers might keep cpo above $900, we will see.

Why ain't REA going up? A high cpo did zilch for REAs sp. Perhaps down in the $800s will see a Lazarus like reincarnation into Anglo or Mpe or if not that happy state, a sp soaring into the 60s and a REA palm tree worth more than a couple of quid 2020 value, which on average will produce c.4t per ha and that's a fair few $s over its life. I'd like a 100 of those looking after me in my old age.

News out that Pubs designated Tier 3 will face tougher restrictions come reopening on the 2nd, Dec. Gyms with heaving, puffing sweating people can carry on as before. They say Gyms are secure and pubs pits of virus infected people getting off their heads.

Ever get the feeling the Govt want to finish off pubs once and for all? Ten out of Ten so far Bozo! Wont be long before we go back to the 11-3 & 5-11 hours and then complete closure where we can fantasise in our virtual boozy state at home. See you in neverneverland.

REA 175 (53)
Cpo 670 (916)

Oil $64
Gold $1457

Ftse 7396
All 4084
DJ 28,066
SP 3134
NS 8632

$1•289
€1•171
IDR 14,084

Asian mrkts were in fine fettle this morning buoyed by hopes that a vaccine will he rolled out sooner than expected, in fact a US Health Dept Official said a vaccine will be in use by Dec for Healthcare workers and selected others. Currently over 12m US citizens have been infected and total fatalities are over 255,000. Eleven Countries have reported cases of over 1,000,000 infections.
The broad MSCI(W) Asia Pacific hit a record high boosting Australian stocks which are now only 1•7% down ytd. The Border between NSW & Victoria has reopened with much celebrations after 4 months of closure. Planes, trains & automobiles can now travel between Melbourne & Sydney.

Stocks in Asia got off to a good start in Shanghai both Exchanges were ahead in quiet trading. Strong gains were seen in S.K +c.2% and Jakarta c.1%, only HK posting a small loss at lunch. Japan was closed for a local holiday.
Investors cont to believe that once vaccines are widely in use and with Central Banks & Govts continued support economies in the West will bounce back strongly in 2021.
At 3:15 JST.
TK closed
HK -48
SH +29
SHZ +6
SK +46
JSX +50
ASX +33

Nos: Oil $45•17. Vix 24.
Gold $1871. Copper $3•282.
Palm $916. $1•332. €1•121.
IDR 14,162. MSCI(W) 610.
FF +9. DF +92
Morning all.

Covid-19
04:00

UK 1,512,045 (55,024)*
Indonesia 497,668 (15,884)•

* 18,662 cases
* 398 deaths
• 4360 cases
• 110 deaths

Covid-19
07:00

UK 1,493,383 (54,626)*
Indonesia 493,308 (15,774)•

* 19,875 cases
* 340 deaths
• 4998 cases
• 96 deaths

Anglo the best performer among London palms this year rose 34 on Friday. A paltry c.29,000 shares traded
(buys c.27,500). They have a similar amount of shares in issue (40m) so could be more thinly traded than REA. However the disparity between the two is huge.
For sure at 600+ one wouldn't expect the vols to be anywhere near those of REA so I guess its the equivalent of 12 REA to one Anglo. One Co sp action differs to another so strictly its difficult to compare if not pointless. Anyway on REA vols yesterday based on Anglo we should have risen at least 8, fat chance as one has to factor our huge debt baggage hence any rise of •05 is to be applauded if sp action is geared to debt and let's face it sp rises are geared to what the Barrow boys want them to be. How about a sunny day for starters or we hate Rea?

A double figure sp rise in REA is as rare as black sand and would need volumes way more than current. For a 34 rise, likely a few mil depending on the state of the jobbers book and mrkt sentiment at the time, which as we know is never good at anytime.
The Greens "Spy in the skies" see to that and now accusations of rape and servitude occuring on Estates in Malaysia & Indonesia is getting wide Press coverage in the Washington Post, Chicago Times & Tom Cobley Inc.

Whether it happens elsewhere or not the Palm Industry are sitting ducks for any number of "horror" stories. I very much doubt anything like what's being widely reported occurs on British Estates. Shareholders need to be assured that no abuse of their women workers is taking place, afterall women make up c.50% of the Estate workforce across Indonesia. I hope Mr Robinow confirms at the next AGM that REAs workforce are among the best paid and looked after in Indonesia. I'm sure they are but it doesn't hurt to ram the point home.
Morning all.

Covid-19
06:00

UK 1,473,508 (54,286)*
Indonesia 488,310 (15,678)•

* 20,252 cases
* 511 deaths
• 4793 cases
• 78 deaths

"Top of the World Ma!" I replied to you a couple of posts ago. Trust your well.