Member Info for JohnLewis79

Progress on vaccines and rising cases have given investors a bit of a puzzle. Do they back economic cyclicals or the pandemic resistant sectors? While they decide a looming conflict between the White House and the Fed over the lack of a stimulus program could break out into the open, not what investors want to hear. Arguing over money needed by desperate citizens is wholly inappropriate. Many are on the sidelines awaiting FDA approvals and reliability of distribution which has now been pushed out to Easter.
A WHO panel of Scientists advised against using Gilead Sciences Remdesivir vaccine citing lack of effective evidence that the drug improves survival rates. Surprisingly shares unmoved at $60. Other coronas, Moderna added $5 ($98), Novavax u/c ($87) & Pfizer unmoved $37.

In a choppy narrow range trading day Investors decided to take money off the table the Dow pointing lower from the bell. Of the S&P 500 sectors only Utilities eked out a small gain. Techs and industrials fell the most. Amazon -$15 (3101), Apple off $2 ($117), Msoft down $2 ($210), Fbk fell $3 ($270) and Google sank $22 ($1736) taking the Nsdq 100 down 50, but over the wk added 24, the only major index to do so.
Stay at homes were bought, Zoom up $26 ($440) & Flix gained $4 ($488). Investor faves went with the mrkt Tesla fell $10 ($490) & Boeing off $4 ($202). Topping the big board
Nike, 3M & Travellers. Boeing among 25 losers propped the rest up. Volume was an above average at 10•7bn traded, losers outpacing winners by 1•06:1.

DJ -220 (29263)
SP -24 (3558)
NS -50 (11,855)
R2 +1 (1785)
WTI $44•49
10y/tb 0•89%

Nos $ Oil $45•15. Vix 24.
Gold $1870. Copper $3•293.
Palm $929. $1•328.€1•121.
IDR 14,194. MSCI(W) 610.
Morning all.

A late reported trade of 62,000 at 55•50 the largest of the day takes the Buys to 290•6k, sells at 71•5k.

Cpo off it's best of the day ($941) nevertheless had another good week closing at $929 for a gain of $21 and ytd averages c.$710 over $140 more than last year.
London quoted palms were in the main boosted by the surging cpo price, Anglo gained 68, Mpe added 20, Dkl 0•60 but REA fell 1•5. Volumes in REA totalled 300,000 the buys outpacing sells by 229,000 : 71,500 or at the rate of 4:1 barring any LRTs.

In Malaysia the KLPI cut the ytd deficit to 5% as estates Q4 nos are predicted to be c.25% better. Incidentally Nov cpo is averaging $891 which puts it on course to exceed cpo Q4 2019 by $207.
Evening all.

Rea 178 (55)
Cpo $664 ($936)

Oil $64
Gold $1461

Ftse 7327
All 4046
DJ 27,876
SP 3110
NS 8520

$1•283
€1•164
IDR 14,085

Covid-19
05:00

UK 1,453,256 (53,775)*
Indonesia 483,518 (15,600)•

* 22,915 cases
* 501 deaths
• 4798 cases
• 97 deaths

A rise in new jobless claims of 742,000 didn't help fragile sentiment as covid cases continue to climb threatening to stall economic growth in the absence of any stimulus from the Govt. A total of 20•3m Americans are on one form or another assistance benefit as of end Oct, just 7 months after the pandemic took hold. Until a vaccine is widely available and this will be months away, social distancing and lockdown are the only available tools to combat transmissions. The CDC are urging citizens not to travel over Thanksgiving and the New York public school system has closed.

Investors took the nos to mean the economy is getting worse and called for the Fed to step in with a fresh round of money to keep certain businesses open and to enable people to keep a roof over their heads. Tres Sec Mnuchin dashed their hopes pulling the plug on any emergency Fed funds being used and called for Banks to return the money. The Dow read the news and fell 125 at the bell.

Early on all sectors were down the major indexes tracking for a 3rd day of losses led by energy, industrials, value stocks, techs were steady while growth stocks logged small gains. Few companies of note reported, Nvidia slipped 1% as chip sales fell. L Brand Inc soared 15% as Q3 nos exceeded estimates helped by record sales at Bath & Body Works and Victoria's Secret lingerie. Macys the world famous store fell 7% after posting a 20% drop in sales.

Stocks on the move inc Tesla to a new intraday high of $510 helping other new energy motors Nikola ($20) & Nio ($48). GM ($43) say they plan to spend $20bn on electric vehicles by 2025. They see which way the wind is blowing and it's electric. On the big board Salesforce and Walmart led, Walt and United Health lagged. The Dow which hit a day low of 29,228 reversed promptly as the afternoon crowd bght the dip closing 44 better on 11bn traded, risers outpaced losers 1•7:1.
DJ +44 (29,488)
SP +14 (3582)
NS +103 (11,905)
R2 +15 (1784)
WTI $41.92
10y/tb 0•827.

Nos: Oil $44•23. Vix 23.
Gold $1866. Copper $3•217.
Palm $936. $1•327. €1•117.
IDR 14,189. MSCI(W) 610.
FF +16. DF -183.
Morning all.

1)
Oh dear this lockdown is turning into a shambles! I look outside my sitting room window and see cars nose to tail from 5:30 am onwards. Are they all heading for the hills?
My local High St seems to be functioning as normal with c.3 in every c.10 shops closed. How are the other 7 open? Guess they said "Sod it" we need the trade. Unfortunately pubs have licenses to protect so have to abide by Wikipedia rules as do these scientists who predicted 4000 deaths a day. My arse, more like every 2 weeks!
An acquaintance tested positive 2 wks ago for covid. He told me it was like a mild dose of flu. He isolated for 10 days and is back at work feeling none the worse. Could be he was lucky. Was he one of the unlucky 20% of people who will get covid the other 80% never to get it? (Talk on Social Media/ evidenced from Prisons & Cruise Liners).

2) Between lockdowns (20/3 to 5/11).
Rea 85-55
Anglo 420-487
Dkl 1•90-2•10
Epa 0•385-Sus
Mpe 449-605

Ftse 5191-5906
All 2837-3324
DJ 19,174-28,391
SP 2305-3510
NS 6880-11,891

Cpo $666-$871
Gold $1489-1945
Oil $27-$41
$1•172
€1•087
Guess which stat went down? Ok that was easy. I'm hoping like British Bulls the worm has turned and we will hit 60 by year end.

British Bulls have turned bullish on REA they now go 'BUY'. Let's see how that works out.

Another rise in cpo, should keep the REA share price in the longterm Parking Lot for sometime or until the inevitable pull back whence they can resume their downtrend.
Not the likes of Anglo & Mpe which seem to have a pulse. Anglo 610, now ahead of last years close (580) shows the way ahead. They of course have no debt baggage to speak of and cash in bank and crucially to replant for the future. When I was a young lad my first Rubber Estate Manager told me
"Replant, replant, and replant." I spent 3 years on that Estate doing nothing else but felling old Rubber for the new kid on the block.

Rea 178 (55)
Cpo $654 ($945)

Oil $64
Gold $1468

Ftse 7239
All 4002
DJ 27,766
SP 3104
NS 8566

$ 1•29
€ 1•16
IDR 14,087
sp/cop 4x (17x)

Covid-19
05:00

UK 1,430,341 (53,274)*
Indonesia 478,720 (15,503)•

* 19609 cases
* 529 deaths
• 4265 cases
• 110 deaths

Boeing caused a stir early on after getting the 'nod' for MAX to take to the skys. MAX has been runway'bound for nearly 2 years so getting MAX the workhorse of the fleet back in the air boosted Boeing shares $6 early on and others in the flying buisness rose, American up 4% & SW up 2%. Yet some airlines have gone bust so wont be buying Boeing and many Airlines have scaled back purchases of planes. Cruises, Norwegian fell 7% were subdued as infections cont to hamper operations recovering anytime soon. Crowded boats as of the 'naughties' may be long past.

Pfizer said it would seek emergency authorization from the FDA within days and disclosed final results from late stage trials that showed a 95% effectiveness. Cases cont to rise unchecked, 159,000 on Tuesday the 7 day average over 150,000 and total cases crossed 250,000, worse than the initial surge first seen in April.

On a quiet day for earnings reports, 486/500 have done so, Target the big box retailer exceeded estimates for profits & sales as its quick delivery service boosted on line shoppers, shares gained $4 to $167. Lowes the home improvement Co went against the trend forecasting holiday Quarter earnings will be below analysts estimates, shares sank 8% to $147. A late afternoon bout of profit taking saw the Dow slump 250 in the last hour as investors took profits and money out of the mrkt. Mounting shutdowns & cases weighed against rising hopes for a vaccine which many are susceptible about given the speed to Public usage. Conspiracy theories being whipped up about the vaccine on Social Media might hinder general acceptance and uptake by the populace.

All 11 S&P sectors closed down, Energy the bigest faller and Boeing reversed earlier gains falling $7 from top of the poppermost to bottom in one fell swoop. On the NYSE volume was 11•4bn, fallers out paced risers c.1•5-1

DJ -345 (29438)
SP -42 (3568)
NS -98 (11,802)
R2 -23 (1769)
WTI $ 41•82
10y/tb 0• 852%

Nos: Oil $44•17. Vix 23.
Gold $1866. Copper $3•188.
Palm $945. $1•323. €1•117.
IDR 14,170. MSCI(W) 610.
FF -60. DF -20.
Morning all.

Initially it looked to be a down day for cpo prices but around 11:00am the price took off through 930 in a flash with 12 of the technical indicators pointing to a strong buy. At the close cpo had gained $27 to $940•6.
November has seen cpo prices climb $123 and ytd $240 (34%) up on last years closing price but more importantly I'm estimating a $175 increase over last years av close of c.$570, boosted by a very strong H2.
Regardless as to the static sp which we have become used to the $s will be piling up in the bank account of worst way $600+ 'achieved' prices in Q4 which will ease our debt repayment schedules.

Let's hope it continues as never more so the palm price needs to be over $900 heading to H1 2021 to give us cover for any unexpected shock in demand, supply, weather, levies, prices or anything else you can think could happen.
I added a few to the pot today as the cpo price spiked up not because I thought the shares would rise but because a goodly portion of any increase will drop to the bottom line which must be good news, cash being King...like.

The mrkt needs to see a sustained recovery in cpo prices which only recently has climbed above the longterm average ($800+). We are on the way and no doubt there will be the occasional shock to deal with but the omens are a hell of a lot better than when cpo was sub $500s even if the mrkt didnt think so at the time and tbf still does not. A 94% increase in price of the one commodity we sell counts for nothing these days.

I think it was W.Buffet who said "if mrkts were efficient I'd be a bum on the street"

Couldn't agree more nobull re your Overhang post. In a nutshell we are working for our creditors and will do so for a few more years to come. How much of this is in the price I cannot be sure but I'm under no illusions it's going to be a long haul. At £24m value you'd think the mrkt has has priced the Co on a worst case basis.
As to trees of 23 years old I very much doubt they bother unless they wish to squeeze out every last drop. Best cut down and replant...oooh we cant even do that.

When I was working on plantations in Malaya ('59-'68) it was at the start of many Rubber Estates switching out of rubber into palm planting so I never saw a palm tree over 7 years old as I returned to the UK for good when us Welsh in my case, planters were politely asked to leave. You could tap rubber up to 20+ years but the yields were poor and we cut and burnt to plant palm c.18 years old as the payback to first oil was c.4 years quicker in palm than rubber.

That became the deciding factor for most Rubber Companies and the fact it was easy to do as we had the nurseries, labour and expertise in situ.

You could have missed the boat as so much has happened since Rodime reversed into Sportech which is now a completely diff company from the Sportech of Littlewoods Pools. Your holdings may have lapsed at this stage. Your broker might help but tbh I think it's a forlorn hope. Hope you didnt have a load of money invested!
Gluck.

Rea 173 (55)
Cpo $658 ($910)

Oil $62
Gold $1468

Ftse 7262
All 4017
DJ 27,821
SP 3108
NS 8527

$1•291
€1•167
Sp/Cpo(r) 4x (17x)

Covid-19
04:00

UK 1,410,732 (52,745)*
Indonesia 474,455 (15,393)•

* 20,051 cases
* 598 deaths
• 3809 cases
• 97 deaths

The Dow got off on the wrong foot yesterday losing 430 by 10:00am on some poor retail sales nos which fell short of forecasts, rising 'cases' and profit taking putting a brake on equities. Noone should be much surprised as no stimulus cheques are being sent out. European stocks were the worse for wear early on, the STOXX 600 fell to its lowest level in 6 months & the ftse trading 80 lower. France nudging 200,000 cases (4th highest globally) prepares to close its external borders and impose another 1 month lockdown as does Germany which had 11,500 new cases yesterday.

On Wall drug & related stocks felt the brunt of selling after Amazon ($3151) up $20 launched a Pharmacy business which allows for free delivery of medications to all Prime members. The Amazon Dreadnought puts the fear of God into any co having to go toe to toe with them as they usually get buried. Home Depot, big in home furnishings fell 3% despite 3Q earnings beat as sales stormed ahead 24% and then some.
The Healthcare sector fell after Buffets Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it had taken new positions in Bristol-Myers, AbbyVie & Merck, shares little changed. However a slap in the face for the 'Sage' of Omaha occurred when Cost Co ($389) up $7 which he had sold out of recently, announced a surprising $10 special dividend, ouch! In other BH news, Buffet has sold almost his entire holding (22m/96%) of JPMC shares ($116) u/c on the day.

Tesla ($442) the shorters bete noire put on another $30 on the S&P news. It will join Amazon in the consumer discretionary sector where Amazon dominates with 40%. Many passive tracker funds will be forced buyers of Tesla next year. Tesla will have an 80% weighting (Musk 20%) and will become the 15th largest Co on the 500 index.
Meanwhile US industrial output rose 1% but 5% below pre pandemic levels. The Housing confidence index hit a high of 90 in Nov as low rates have spurred demand for mortgages. New sales are up 17% y-o-y. As London closed down 56 (6365) the 30 was 122 lower, Boeing ($210) again topped the big board with weakness in FAANGs & big techs pulling the Nsdq 25 down.

At the close 9/11 S&P sectors were in the red column (86% of constituents fell) on 10•5bn traded, risers winning over losers 1•3-1.
DJ -167 (29,783)
SP -17 (3610)
NS -25 (11,899)
R2 +7 (1792)R
WTI $41•12
10y/tb 0•851%

Nos: Oil $43•59. Vix 23.
Gold $1876. Copper $3•196.
Palm $913. $1•325. €1•117.
IDR 14,097. MSCI(W) 613.
FF -17. DF -43.
Morning all.

Yea the buying interest is patchy I agree but on weeks we have seen 1m traded (that's a lot for REA) the shares have done zilch and certainly over the last 4-6 wks buys outpace sells by well over 10:1 the shares have done zilch. It's a curates egg of a stock unfortunately mostly bad atm. The sector and poor visibility do not help but that's the Brokers responsibility to drum up business here and abroad. No idea when this turns but as rugs pointed out the FF is pretty minuscule with just 44m outstanding so as you rightly say the fireworks will begin.