Member Info for JohnLewis79

"Your fired!"
Like a wounded lion Trump is at his most dangerous while plotting his comeback. Yet to concede, pending lawsuits, which are unlikey to overturn the result he will have to take his toothbrush back to Trump Towers. The 4,000,000 vote in Bidens favour and electoral wins will suffice for most sensible people.

Must say Biden has never inspired me, his backing of the Republican cause in Ireland grated. China is ambivalous preferring the devil they knew. I remain unconvinced he will reach out much further than Washington DC and wont be 'teeing' it up in Blighty. I see him as a Committee man not a natural leader the complete opposite of Trump who was very much his own man. Unfortunately he upset as many as he pleased, very much his way or the highway.

America probably needs someone in between those two opposites and that points to Kamella Harris being a likely runner to succeed Biden who will not relish another tiring election in 2024 which will make him at 80 the oldest by some way ever to run.

The odds are not very good for Kamella. Fourteen VPs went on to become President and 9 of those succeeded the Presidency because of death or resignation and 5 of those were not re-elected. Kamella has been cut from 1000/1 to 500/1 on Betfair. Biden is 0/0f with Trump 25/1. Other outsiders inc Kanye West, Donald Trump Jnr, Ivanka Trump and Marco Rubio.
Morning all.

Covid-19
03:30

UK 1,171,441 (48,888)*
Indonesia 433,836 (14,540)•

* 24,957 cases
* 413 deaths
• 4262 cases
• 98 deaths

Simon Cawkwell of Evil'k Nevil fame has bght a chunk thinking these are worth North of 40. I've been long gone here having done very well over the years so am loathe to chance my arm again. SC is pretty spot on his selections. Is the Tote worth £80m?
Trevor Hemmings thinks so.

Covid-19
06:00

UK 1,146,484 (48,475)*
Indonesia 429,574 (14,442)•

* 23,287 cases
* 355 deaths
• 3778 cases
• 94 deaths

Its only fitting that Biden a true son of Pennsylvania soil will be on his way to the Oval office as the State casts for him. Trump now reliant on the Courts should pack his bags and return to Trump Tower to lick his wounds. The better man won the people have spoken. Arrivederci sunshine.

Stocks were flat on Friday but it's been the best 'election' week since Hoover in the 30's. The Nsdq put on 9%, the 500, 30 and small caps all gained 7%. Significantly the 500 is now up 8% ytd way behind the 33% shooting stars of the tech. A divided Congress will pose problems for Biden one Wall can learn to live with as long as the economy turns better and its started well, the economy put on 58,000 more jobs than forecast and new jobless claims cont to fall.

However there are 10m fewer people in work than back in February.
Retail is improving slowly, healthcare and info tech are strong while energy & financials lagged on the 500.
All sectors bar energy are expected to improve into Q1 2021. The most worrying factor is the high infection rates across the US which has driven the leisure, hospitality and airline sectors on to the rocks. At the close on a better than average vol of 10•4bn losers outnumbered gainers by 1•4:1 as the short interest on the 500 increased by 40%.

DJ -67 (28,323)
SP -1 (3509)
NS +4 (11,895)
R2 -16 (1644)
WTI $37•33
10y/tb 0•815
Morning all.

Another outstanding week for cpo prices ending up $59 at $876 and averages c.$700 ytd. In Malaysia the KLPI trimmed ytd losses to 8% despite sluggish palm share prices.
Little of note among London palm stocks. REA remained static at 54 on c.100,000 traded, no sells on the week a likely first imo.

Crude gained $2 on the week but runs $26 lower ytd so this year the connection has truly been broken as cpo is running c.$170 ahead of last year at the 3Q close and has widened the gap since. According to my nos cpo averaged $570 in 2019 and this year is on track to average over c.$730.
Evening all.

Friday is usually a quiet day for shares, certainly the ones I invest in. Last Friday c.36,000 REA changed hands, sp u/c at (54) as it was the week before and the week before that and the week...well no, it was....Holy Cow 53!
Over the period 5th, Oct to present (10:00 am) c.1•151m have been traded and while I have not totted up the individual trades I'd est buys outnumbered sells by a ratio of c.6:1.

As we know more buys than sells are no guarantee of the sp going up in fact they tend to go down as evidenced above and mostly this year to boot. Rising cpo prices are no help as evidenced over the period 5th, Oct to present, Cpo has risen c.$110, shares nowhere. So my theory that REA tracks Crude might be worth a second look as over the period 5th, Oct to now, crude has flat lined and I'm being generous. It's certainly a better measure than Vol and Cpo numbers. Ok that's a joke!
So 'finger in the air' or the 'black stuff' you decide which drives REA.

As is the nature of mrkts they never believe that prices can be sustained on the upside but always believe prices will revert to lows.
Take palm oil companies this is being played out now despite prices above 2019 and have roared up from the low $600s since H2. Palm Co share prices are in the main at cpo sub $500 valuations, well REA is for one for sure. Stagnation is the watchword in this sector.

They might be right to be pessimistic about cpo sustaining $800+ through to year end and beyond but they are having their cake and eating it. Easy if you price a commodity at lows having never priced it at highs to reflect the better outlook, that's a one way book.
There are too many variables to be confident forecasts are accurate. La Nina, soybean, weather, levies, output, crude & labour could all scupper the most thorough analyses. Why not say sp appreciation is minimal to zero and the downside is.... to zero. I could get that.

Any of the above could dent assumptions and of course the 'Greens' are always ready to castigate the 'demon' oil conveniently forgetting the rape of the Amazon forest for beef cattle. I'm only surprised they have not blamed it for covid-19, they have for everything else.

Covid-19
04:00

UK 1,123,197 (48,120)*
Indonesia 425,796 (14,348)•

* 24,138 cases
* 378 deaths
• 4065 cases
• 89 deaths

Rea 180 (54)
Cpo $627 ($867)

Oil $63
Gold $1490

Ftse 7406
All 4079
DJ 27,675
SP 3085
NS 8435

$1•270
€1•156
IDR 14,014

Buyers were busy in Apple and CAT which set the Dow alight up over 300 at the bell. Election week is proving a win win for equities the 500 up 240 (7%) & the 30 gaining 1889 (7%). Investors think Biden has done enough to win and will be sitting in the Oval office come January 2021 but will have to contend with a divided Congress which will hamper his fiscal stimulus policies. Trump continues to insist his party are the victims of voter fraud, he holds a narrow lead in Georgia and Penn.

On the economic the Fed will keep buying $bns worth of Bonds and keep rates at 0%. New jobless claims fell 6000 to 728,000 continuing the down trend of recent weeks and earnings nos still exceed Walls expectations. Shares of GM ($37) rose 6% as overseas sales recovered and profits jumped 70% to $4bn for the Q.
Ford Motor ($7) rose 5% in sympathy.
FAANGs had a good day rising across the board by c.4-8%, Fbk the star rising 8% sending the Nsdq up 300 to (11,891) just 183 shy of an all time record. The magnificent 7 (Amazon, Apple, Fbk, Google, Netflix, Msoft & Tesla) are now worth $7•9 trillion up from $2•4tn 4 years ago.

It's not all tech. Health stocks rose 5% as these are seen to perform better from a divided Govt and not all sectors were gaining. Defence contractors Northrop ($307) & Lockheed Martin ($364) were sold off on spending worries. Big moves were seen in Biogen up 40% on FDA approval and Uber & Lyft up 12%. Topping the big board were Dow inc, JPMC, Boeing & Apple. Heading south Merck.

DJ +543 (28,390)
SP +67 (3510)
NS +300 (11,891)
R2 +45 (1660)
WTI $38•15
10y/tb 0•772

Nos: Oil $40•04. Vix 27•6.
Gold $ 1938. Copper $ 3•103.
Palm $867. $1•312. €1•110.
IDR 14,257. MSCI(W) 591.
FF -24. DF -105.
Morning all.

Hi boyo not bad under the circumstances, my palm thingy behaving on a par with G, ie useless.
I'm loathe to jump from a sinking ship
given most stocks come with health and wealth warnings. So I'm stuck to the end of the year. At least G pays you to hold their shares which is some consolation. Anyways good luck.

A fully qualified nurse of 73 was arrested & handcuffed by the Stasi for wanting to take her grandmother out of a nursing home. She was bundled into a wagon and taken for questioning. This story is all over London Radio. Dear God is this how low we have sunk in this country?

I have just walked up my High St and people are out in their hundreds, not sure what they are doing but it's nowhere near the 'Ghost' town of the March lockdown. I suspect they fear the Keystone cops will boot in their front doors checking for grandmothers to arrest. Daily our civil liberties are being taken away and unlikely to return. Daily they snoop on conversations. Daily you are denied playing tennis with your partner but can go for a walk together.

Daily lifes becoming not worth living for many. Soon there will be no country left, where noone is allowed a view, and people denied a voice for fear of being grassed up? Daily we are told of hundreds dying of covid conveniently forgetting they may have been dying of other complications.

If I could get out of this country I bloody would. Is East Germany a holiday destination anymore?

Blimey we should have more of these pandemics, elections, bankcruptcies, company collapses and lockdowns. The mrkts love them.
Not if your a palm oil investor of course, here its principally finger in the air type stuff. Mind you if your not up to speed on what plantation values are currently worth, then best check which way the winds blowing firstly. Then....

....think of a number, divide by 4 x by 2 add the price of jelly-beans & heh presto REA at 54 .... Simples peeps.

Covid-19
06:00

UK 1,099,059 (47,742)*
Indonesia 421,731 (14,259)•

* 25,177 cases
* 492 deaths
• 3356 cases
• 113 deaths

Rea 174 (54)
Cpo $631 ($863)

Oil $62
Gold $1463

Ftse 7359
All 4056
DJ 27,681
SP 3093
NS 8475

$1•277
€1•159

What a crazy day. The mrkt fell over 100 at open despite Biden still in the van. By mid morning Trump having won Florida took to the airwaves calling a win for the Reds. By UK 6:00 pm Trumps hopes were in tatters and he was calling for the Courts intervention to rescue him, citing voting irregularities. He had to cancel his 4 ball at Key Largo.

Wall shook off early wobbles to surge over 800 at lunch as it became clear that Joe was headed for 1600 Pen Avenue. Nsdq futures jumped over 4% triggering circuit breakers to cap further gains. At lunch the Nsdq was up 500 at 11,661. Tech strength was responsible for much of the gain as they are seen as safe bets to grow earnings even while the pandemic persists. Apple ($115) added $5, Amazon ($3229) up $182, Google ($1762) gained $116 but Fbk lost 7% to $28. Msoft ($218) put on $12 and Nflix ($501) added $14 at mid session.

No company results or economic news of interest to bother investors, there is only one game in town today and investors are making hay convinced Biden had made a Lazarus like resurrection following the loss of Florida and Ohio and Trump ahead in the rust belt States.
As voting continues in some States Trump has a string of lawsuits pending in Wisconsin, Georgia, Penn a recount in Michigan and threatens to upend any result going against him. Who wins the Presidency is in the hands of the courts. At the close Biden had secured 243 electoral votes, Trump 214.

DJ +367 (27,848)
SP +74 (3443)
NS +430 (11,591)
R2 +1 (1615)
WTI $ 38•54
10y/tb 0•745%

Nos: Oil $40•62. Vix 30.
Gold $1908. Copper $3•105.
Palm $863. $ 1•297. €1•205.
IDR 14,529. MSCI(W) 579.
FF +24. DF +197.
Morning all.

Donald getting the bums rush across the airwaves atm, how the media switch from hero to zero in a few hours. A last minute upset is pretty much off the cards unless the Courts decide otherwise. Biden is 1/5 on now, name your price on Trump.

Trumps toast!

Cpo has jumped $94 since 4/10. REA has fallen 5. That makes sense. It may just as well have fallen $94 and REA would be sub 5p. Who cares anymore? Prices are hopelessly out of kilter as investors fear being caught in a massive no value trap. One must think Bank balances are improving as the outlook gets worse by the week, so the mrkt thinks. That's a difficult circle to square and one I'd like to know the justification of.

What investors want to know is, what's the jelly bean price? That's much more important than the cpo price and tbh does REA actually grow palm trees? Have you been out there to check it out? Nice pictures in the AR mean zilch. Could this be the greatest scam even topping Madoff's screwing of unsuspecting investors of billions?
I wouldn't put money on it but heh, ya gotta wonder....