Member Info for JohnLewis79

FF
None left if the list is accurate
as it totals c.108% so somebody has either reduced or gone. Whatever the FF cannot be 20m or anywhere near so where are the barrow boys getting all their shares from as few are selling? If they are borrowing that's gonna cost....still as long as the spread is tight and the supply matches demand making a fair mrkt, we cannot grumble too much!

Cheers rugs, will do...

I have not seen an up to date register of REA holdings (its Top Secret) so estimating the FF is pot luck. I thought it was of the order 5-8m but as the jobbers are prepared to sell you any amount you like I'm thinking the FF is more like 20m. I remember being put in my place by a Broker who replied when I asked could I buy 10,000 of xyz stock thinking that was a big deal, he replied "would 1,000,000 suit Sir?"

At sub 70 it's very much 'distressed rates' and since the 47-8 lows the Prefs have outpaced the Ords by a good clip. I assume they see the Co earning enough to settle dues on time and in full while the Ords have joined the Abstinence Society.

I have noticed a few more holders popping up on the board of late. That's very welcome, the more views the better, especially opposing ones because when I start to believe what I write I know I'm in trouble.

Rea 172 (55)
Cpo $648 ($920)

Oil $61
Gold $1473

Ftse 7324
All 4046
DJ 27,934
SP 3120
NS 8571

$1•292
€1•166
IDR 14090

Covid-19
05:00

UK 1,390,681 (52,147)*
Indonesia 470,648 (15,296)•

* 21,363 cases
* 213 deaths
• 3535 cases
• 85 deaths

Morning justone, nothing like an e/w bet imo. Bookies hated the e/w merchants calling them 'theives' a bit rich imo considering they are the bigest crooks on the planet! Anyways good luck you may have caught the bottom on both classes.

Global Equities jumped on Modernas vaccine news suggesting the drug is highly effective around 95% of the time in preventing people getting covid across all age groups . Moderna stock surged over 8% to $97 at the bell & has risen from $19 at the start of the year. Novavax a virus rival slipped back $11 to $86 but is up from $4 at the start of the year. Caution is needed as the FDA has not granted approval, yet the Govt is confident of having 60m doses ready this year.

The news boosted other out of favour companies. Airlines took off United gaining 5% along with 3%-4% rises in American, Delta & Southwest. Cruises were in demand, Carnival gaining 9%. Hotels followed the trend, Intercontinental ($4710) added 5% along with Wynn, MGM Grand, Marriott & Hilton all ahead c.$2-$4. Oils gained on usage, Chevron and Exxon up 5% and WTI rose 3% to $41.41. Financials & Energy were sought but 'Stay at Homes' were sold off to fund virus impacted stocks. Pis fave Tesla ($462) spiked $53 after hours when it was announced the Co would be joining the S&P500 on Dec 21st.

The Dow hit an intraday record of 29,942 during the morning session boosted by gains in Boeing ($200) who topped the big board on hopes the MAX Jet will be o'kayd to resume flying. The Dow started life at 49 in 1896 so next year will be 125 years old and likely 30,000 points higher a stratospheric rise of 61,124%.

As mrkts hit record daily highs alrmingly 1,000,000 new virus cases in America were reported in the last 6 days boosting the grand total to over 11,000,000 and deaths hit 252,033. We are on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe whereby 400,000 Americans could perish in the next 6 months said Peter Hotez, Dean of the Nat School of Tropical Medecine. Its imperative that these vaccines are ready for use by January. Cases across Europe are also rising even Sweden reported over 2500 daily infections, matching the UK daily average.

At close advances outpaced decliners by 5:1 on the NYSE on 11bn traded.
DJ +471 (29950)R
SP +42 (3627)R
NS +95 (11,924)
R2 +41 (1785)R
WTI $41•55
10y/tb 0•912%

Nos: Oil $44•21. Vix 22.
Gold $1887. Copper $3•224.
Palm $923. $1•327. €1•115.
IDR 14,043. MSCI(W) 614.
FF -27. DF -108.
Morning all.

Looks like those 2 big trades on Friday were sells. Strange given the expected big % turnaround on the bottom line come YE. But heh, all's fair in buys'n sells whatever the reason.

Prefs up to 76•5 that's a 33% one month gain. Not long ago they were at parity to the Ords which now lag 20 behind. I'm not persuaded the two are interlinked. Long overdue a re-rate I will be adding before the stock takes off to 58!

Ftse called 45 better at open following Far East advices. Shame the overall impoving mrkt sentiment doesn't drip down to unloved palm stocks. I guess someone's gotta be in the commodity doghouse so if it ain't oils it will be us. On Fridays sp and 2020 HY nos, REA EV is 623 (£24 + £254 - £4 ÷ 43.95) which makes a nonsense of the company's worth.
Something is not computing in the nos, a 91% decline in EV/ sp to mrkt / sp is too wide to be believeable let alone make sense of. Ring me if you have an answer.

Rea 172 (55)
Cpo $639 ($917)

Oil $62
Gold $1473

Ftse 7308
AS 4035
DJ 28306 (R)
SP 3122 (R)
NS 8550 (R)

$1•296
€1•117
IDR 14,076

Covid-19
O6:00

UK 1,369,318 (51,934)*
Indonesia 467,113 (15211)•

* 24,962 cases
* 158 deaths
• 4106 cases
• 63 deaths

A strong start in Asia this morning as economic data out of China & Japan cheered investors. China reported factory output up 7% y-o-y with retail sales improving over 4%. Bourses in Shanghai had priced in the good news some weeks ago. Japans Nikkei was up 460 at lunch, a near 30 year high, GDP nos pointing to strong growth in the economy which gained 21% in the last quarter having been down 28% in Q2. However the overall size of the economy has contracted y-o-y.

At a time of rising protectionism in the West, 15 Asian countries inc China, Japan, Aus & NZ have signed a trade deal agreeing to a free trade zone to reduce tariffs, ease restrictions and smooth the flow of trade between them. This is the Worlds bigest long term trade deal worth nearly 30% of the global economy. As the US pulls up the drawbridge, Trump is thought to be planning some aggressive moves against China before his term is out.

The economic news pulled Pacific Exchanges up across the region the ASX to an 8 month high. US infection cases crossing 11m and small outbreaks in SK, Japan & Australia were downplayed due to the near availability of vaccine(s). Asia is learning to live with the virus realising the cure cannot be at the expense of 'totalling' their economies.
At 2:00 pm JST.

TK +515
HK +140
SH +30
SHZ +17
SK +47
JSX +14
ASX +80

Nos: Oil $43•30. Vix 23.
Gold $1893. Copper $3•249.
Palm $919. $1•322. €1•116.
IDR 14,128. MSCI(W) 606.
FF +40. DF +270.
Morning all.

Watch out! B.Bulls detect a bullish resurgence developing at REA........

First time in many a year am off for a Curry Tiffin at my local duka. A long standing creditor is working his debt off via curry lunches which tend to be expensive given Cobra beer prices.
Suits me. I hope it's open, most shops seem to be in my area of S.London where this morning its windy and raining, so play may be suspended.

Anglo 511-560 (trading upd)
Dkl 2•60-2•55
Epa 0•775-0•750 (suspended)
Mpe 600-645
Rea 59-55

The above are indicative Co sps as at Wk 40, the beginning of Q4. Over this period to date cpo price has risen $153 (20%). No company has matched cpo's rise the best Anglo at 9•6%. Interesting to note no London palm Co sp is above last years close despite at end of Q3 Cpo averages c.$702 v $532 last year, up 32%.

In contrast to cpo the Black Stuff fighting high production costs and the rush to electrification is down (53%) which along with oil Co sps have in the main tanked, BP & RDSB both down c.51% ytd. Exxon & Chevron 49% & 31% down ytd.
In a nutshell cpo prices UP, share prices DOWN. Crude price DOWN share prices DOWN. I get the latter stat but not the former. I expect the reasons are plain to all but my befuddled brain cannot fathom or equate the discrepancy.
Morning all.

Covid-19
04:00

UK 1,344,356 (51,766)*
Indonesia 463,007 (15,148)•

* 26,860 cases
* 462 deaths
• 5272 cases
• 111 deaths

You would think so kuvey but REA travels byways even Bear Grylls hasn't explored. So the key is patience as long as your a long term investor and that's a vanishing breed nowdays. In this world of instant news, financial info, share prices etc, we have become accustomed to good things happening yesterday. Buy a stock and if it hasn't moved up immediately sell and move on.
Unfortunately it doesn't work that way, share prices are indicative at best, some overshoot and others like REA undershoot. In REAs case it's been falling year on year since mid 2010 as palm oil prices became depressed. Also carrying such a heavy debt load has been a hindrance, no doubt about that but the important bit is REA can service the repayments and hopefully wont have any formal warnings as to a 'going concern' at the next audit. That spooked investors last time round though its standard auditor-speak in qualifying Co accounts.

There are stats as to the average duration investors hold shares. I suspect for pis its c.1 year or so which in REAs case is nowhere near long enough. Look to 2-5 imo as there is a lot to be done. Since June the top line will have improved immeasurably thanx to Q3 cpo averaging c.$741
v $536 last year and output improving which should boost the FY net position. As we know REA is priced at Carey St values. Vultures looking for distressed assets to buy on the cheap stalk the Courts seeking Companies fallen on hard times. The mrkt might think were headed there but I do not.

The cheaper REA becomes the more determined I am to wait it out as the current valuation makes little sense to me. Ask yourself why was REA valued at £75m a year ago and now £24m when cpo prices are over $200 higher?
Answers on a postcard please.
Evening all.

Indian edible oil refiners are cutting imports of palm oil due to the spread between palm and soyoil narrowing. A rally in Malaysian futures to a near 8 year high of 3405 ringgit on Friday saw the usual $100-200 discount pt to soy cut to $80.

Cpo is being offered at $880 CIF compared to $960 for degummed soyoil. The easing gap has seen refiners turn to soy sometimes perceived by consumers to be of better quality & taste. Traders expect palm imports to India could dip to 600,000t in Jan from 750,000t in Oct and Soyoil up to 350,000t from 270,000t in October.

The rapid rise in palm prices could turn down before the year end if soy futures which hit a 4 year high recently continues to be more attractively priced to the Indian Indian refiners & the consumer.

Covid-19
06:00

UK 1,317,496 (51,304)*
Indonesia 457,735 (15,037)•

* 27,301 cases
* 376 deaths
• 5444 cases
• 104 deaths