Member Info for JohnLewis79

Rea 171 (54•75)
Cpo $582 ($815)

Oil $62
Gold $1513
Ftse 7248
All 3993
DJ 27,046
SP 3038
NS 8296
$1•294
€1•161

Covid-19
05:00

UK 942,275 (45,675)*
Indonesia 400,483 (13,612)•

* 24,760 cases
* 310 deaths
• 4029 cases
• 100 deaths

It was never going to be a good day on Wall with virus infections rising seemingly unchecked across America and Europe put the Dow under pressure from the bell. Weakness in *CAT and *Dow inc contributed an 83 drag to the Dow's fall of 570.
Extending a turbulent week for equities across Europe the ftse closed 145 down with German and French bourses down c.4%. Brent and WTI fell 5% on demand concerns. BP & RDSB both hit ytd lows. Chevron & Exxon off c.3% at mid session continued the poor showing on the US energy sector, off 4%.

Just before 12 the Dow was 870 down as Boeing ($147) among the top fallers reported Q3 nos. The Co announced a $466m loss (4th straight) and will slash its workforce by another 11,000. The Co has rec'd no new orders for planes this Q and does not expect air travel to reach pre covid nos until 2023. This will give the Co time to repair its finances, reduce the headcount to 130,000 by 2021 and get the MaxJet off the runway and into service.

Investors continued to flee the Airline & Cruise sectors. MGM, Marriott, Hyatt & Hilton were all in the red between 1% & 4%. Wynn Resorts off 4% at a year low. The bloodbath cont in Cruises, Norwegian down 7%, Carnival 8% which has had $100 trimmed from its stock price so far this year.
Boeing, Msoft, Visa, Apple & Nike led the laggards.

As London closed off 146, a 6 month low the Dow was down 830 despite a half hearted attempt to rally just before lunch. So far Oct has seen a 5% points fall (1260) on the Dow. No respite for investors, equities carried on going south in the pm session closing 943 lower on over 11bn shares changing hands. Fallers outnumbered risers by 10:1 on the NYSE & 7 :1 on the Nsdq.
DJ -943 (26520)
SP -120 (3271)
NS -426 (11005)
R2 -67 (1543)
WTI $37•50
10y/tb 0•790%

Nos Oil $39•70. Vix 40.
Gold $1882. Copper $3•083.
Palm $815. $ 1•300. €1•106.
IDR 14,656. MSCI(W) 571.
FF +17. DF +254.
Morning all.

If we look at Q4 numbers I reckon with c.8 weeks to go cpo will average c.$805 v $684 (2019) which points to break even'ish for the year. For 2019 CPO averaged $570/$453 achieved (L$46m*) and for 2020 $728(e)/$600(e) achieved forp a break even ($0/0e). Which when you consider cpo only started its price recovery in Q3 '20 and didnt hit $800 till late Sept, the nos ain't bad.
* Cost of sales $30m more which hopefully won't repeat this year. Significant cost savings are expected so depending on how much can be trimmed from running costs etc, a profit or damn near is on the cards.
A negative P/e ratio may be shown but don't concern yourself if REA post a loss as this is temporary. Anyway
P/ers are only one way of est what the mrkt think you pay for a $ of earnings or how long it would take you to recoup your money. Given a cpo av of $800e in 2021 $680e achieved REA will look a different animal assuming no shocks but remember this is REA were talkin' about.

Nowt wrong with the statement cept FX which is a constant concern. Shares fell as one would expect.

Gonna be a bum day. Ftse off 130, Dow called near 500 lower a perfect storm for RR holders.

76

On the basis of REA 163•5 cpo $580 year ago today, then REA should trade at c.220p. Shame it dont work like that although it's another metric that points to fair value being in the 200 ballpark.

Germany with c.half our infection nos are about to capitulate to covid-19. Merkel wants to order a total lockdown of everything which presumably includes borders and flights in and out. This is far more drastic than current regulations require the pop to observe.
For such a well regulated country and for many months the best performer in the covid stakes this is a huge admission of failure. Won't be long before we follow auntie Angela.

Rea 163•5 (54•75)
Cpo $580 ($814)

Oil $61
Gold $1496
Ftse 7331
All 4033
DJ 27,187
SP 3047
NS 8304
$1•287
€1•157

The crash month of Oct looks like ending flat to c.3% in the red. Yesterday the Dow dumped 222 on the stimulus deal being delayed till after the election and some uninspiring Q3 nos depressed traders. The Nsdq 100 rose on hopes that FAANGs Q nos will please investors. *MSOFT Q3 revs beat Walls estimates by 12%, shares off $4 ($213) after hours. Analysts expect the tech sector overall to post a small rise in earnings of near 1% a lot better than the 500 earnings called 16% down.

Others reporting *ELI Lilly the drugmaker fell 7% as profits took a hit due to costs associated with their covid-19 drug which turned out a bust.
*CAT & *3M though topping estimates failed to offer any outlook shares in both came off $5 to $158 & $160 respectively. Stay at home stocks Amazon, Zoom and Shopify were all up. Airlines were landing American off 5% with United & Delta 3% on covid worries . Today punter fave *BOEING ($155) *GE and MCard announce Q3 numbers.

Vix (32) hit its highest level on the fear gauge since early Sept as volatility cont to swing mrkts the Dow jumped off 5 lows, vols again well down on the averages. The election is making investors very nervous as the marginal States are tightening. A one time shoe-in for Biden (1/2) is now looking at a photo finish with Trump (13/8) barnstorming up to 5 rallies a day coming through on the rails. If Biden wins Georgia it could curtains for Trump.

DJ -222 (27,463)
SP -10 (3391)
NS +72 (11,431)
R2 -15 (1590)
WTI $38•65
10y/tb 0•771%

Nos: Oil $40•48. Vix 32.
Gold $1911. Copper $3•089.
Palm $814. $ 1•304. €1•107.
IDR 14,636. MSCI(W) 572.
FF -38. DF -160.
Morning all.

Covid-19
03:30

UK 917,515 (45,365)*
Indonesia 396,454 (13,512)•

* 22,825 cases
* 367 deaths
• 3520 cases
• 101 deaths

Dont follow the Prefs as I dont have any. The Ords are stuck in lockdown mode nothing much budges the shares as they are rarely traded in decent volumes. My 70-75 YE close looks nailed on.

The increasing infections and death rates unsurprisingly is keeping investors well away from risky asset classes. You may be getting umpence on deposit but at least you wont be funding jobbers Xmas expenses and will keep your savings more or less intact.

Rea 163•5/54•75
Cpo $586/$813
Oil $62
Gold $1492
Ftse 7306
All 4024
DJ 27,071
SP 3037
NS 8276
$1•286
€1•158

The Dow tanked nearly 1000 early on Tuesday as investors headed for the hills and buyers stood around hands in pockets. All of Octobers gains have been wiped out as the stimulus talks drag on and global infections saw record rises in the US, France & Russia. In America the weekly average hit a record high of 68,700. While equities have become almost immune to these huge infection spikes investors have become far more cautious of late with an election round the corner. Biden retains his lead he's a steady 1/2f, Trump narrowing to 7/4. Most say in the knife edge swing States Trump will fail to pick up enough electoral votes. These States hold the key, Florida, Penn, Arizona, Ohio, N Carolina, Michigan & Wisconsin and Biden leads in most.

The 500 is set to test the 3200 support level as 139/500 have reported Q3 nos with some big FAANG stocks reporting this week. Travel & Airlines vulnerable to covid curbs were clobbered, *R.C fell 10%, *Norwegian off 8%, *Delta down 6%, *United off 7% & *American 6%. Punter faves dropped, *Tesla down $4 ($416) & *Boeing fell $8 to ($160). Stay at home stock *Zoom fared better up $8 to $521.

*SAP a European software Co tanked 20% as customers reined in spending which hit US techs *Msoft down $6, *Cisco, *IBM, *Honeywell and *Intel down among the big board laggards. Volume on the NYSE was a below average 8.9bn with fallers outnumbering risers by 6:1 and on the Nsdq 5:1.
At close:
DJ -650 (27,685)
SP -64 (3401)
NS -189 (11,359)
R2 -35 (1605)
WTI $38•75
10yt/b 0•799%

Nos: Oil $40•67. Vix 32.
Gold $1910. Copper $3•085.
Palm $813. $1•304. €1•103.
IDR 14,676. MSCI(W) 573.
FF-7. DF +25
Morning all.

Covid-19
03:00

UK 894,690 (44,998)*
Indonesia 392,934 (13,411)•

* 20,890 cases
* 102 deaths
• 3222 cases
• 112 deaths

Every £1 of mrkt cap translates in revenues as below (2019):-
Rea £5
Anglo £1
Mpe 38p
Not sure it's significant 'cept I managed to dream up a metric with REA at the top, heh, heh, heh!

Palm oil prices are rising due to demand from India & China which has recovered far quicker than expected as buyers rushed to procure the oil having used up their inventories during the lockdowns.
According to the MPOB exports to China reached c250kt in Sept up 69% from March and exports to India rose 42% (375kt). Indonesia exports to India increased to 3•5mt up 22% from same period last year. Total Indonesia tonnage generated was 23•5mt a 9% decline same period last year.

Oleochemicals up 24% in export volume outperformed other palm products to 1•8mt in H1 as demand for hand sanitised and cleaning products surged globally. With limited supply and high demand industry observers expect prices to remain strong for sometime despite the anti palm brigade pressuring the EU to phase out palm tout suite. Lawsuits against the EU have been filed with the WTO and no conclusion is expected for at least 2 years.

Meanwhile prices on the BMDE hit a high of 3100 ringgit (c.$740) mid October up 38% y-o-y and current are c.$810.

Rea 163
Cpo 580

Oil $62
Gold $1495
Ftse 7331
AS 4037
DJ 27,091
SP 3039
NS 8326
$1•286
€1•158
IDR 14,025

A surge in global covid infections saw a mixed start in the Far East and Pacifica this morning. A near trebling of cases in SK sent the KOSPI 20 lower and Tokyo down 45 to a mid'day low.
Two thirds of the Nikkei 33 sector sub indexes traded lower led by iron and steels and interestingly the 'Mother' index of start ups head for 4 straight days of declines having been one of the better performers. Over in China the SHCOMP is off 24 the SHENZEN up 10 on local factors. Jakarta ahead 26, HK and Malaysia are closed for holidays.

The ASX200 flat as no new cases of covid were reported in Melbourne and just 3 in all of the country. Australia has had 27,523 infections and 905 fatalities to date. The record nos of cases reported in the US (83,757) on Friday & (83,718) on Sat, the highest nos seen in France and Spain declaring a State of Emergency is keeping many on the sidelines fretting about trade, tourism, economic activity and the US election. Investing just got a lot more risky. Stock futures all point south for a Monday start.
At 1:15 JST
TK -34
HK Closed
SH -24
SHZ +10
SK -8
JSX +36
ASX -2

Nos: Oil $41•06. Vix 28.
Gold $1900. Copper $3•124.
Palm $811. $1•303. €1•100.
IDR 14,674. MSCI(W) 582.
FF -30. DF -227.
Morning all.