Member Info for JohnLewis79

The Prefs stood their ground at 84. They seem unfazed by the reaction of the Ords to the RNS....shocker!

Yesterdays slump in the share price following the Co RNS cant be put at the Co's door. They report the mrkt react. I didnt see the need for a (profit warning) covered up by the levy stuff which everyone knew about so the overdone reaction must have been down to other factors. You choose.

No doubt it's a buying opportunity if you believe the RNS was more about tempering investors enthusiasm than anything else. I may buy back if the sp heads south a 14p profit was not to be sniffed at and most unlike me as I tend to stick bum hand or not.

Rea 174 (60)
Cpo $723 ($896)

Oil $64
Gold $1468

Ftse 7214
All 4006
DJ 27,882
SP 3133
NS 8616

$1•317
€ 1•187

Covid-19
06:00

UK 1,737,960 (61,434)*
Indonesia 581,550 (17867)•

* 14,718 cases
* 189 deaths
• 5754 cases
• 127 deaths

The Nsdq100 driven up by Apple ($124) & Fbk ($286) closed at a record high yesterday as the rest of the mrkt took a breather.
Promising vaccine updates have raised investor hopes for an economic recovery but news out of California that a one day rise of 30,000 cases and the Governor imposing lockdowns put a brake on stocks climbing higher. Talk of the pandemic which leads daily news broadcasts is beginning to slip down the story list.

Among stocks and sectors Energy were sold off the worst performer on the session losing 2•5% (WTI down 66c). Last Q Energy topped the Sector gainers leaderboard. Boeing ($238) led the risers on the big board, Intel ($50) propping up the laggards.
Pis investor fave Tesla rose another $50 to $649 its market cap now exceeds $600bn. Its only the 6th Co ever to reach this milestone. GE ($11) became the first & is now worth c.$95bn. GE stock price has been falling steadily since 2000 when it traded at $60.

On the NYSE 10•76bn shares were traded losers outpacing risers by 1•3:1. There were 28 new 52wk highs no new lows.
DJ -148 (30,070)
SP -7 (3692)
NS +56 (12,520)R
R2 -1 (1891)
WTI $45•46
10y/tb 0•934%

Nos: Oil $48•44. Vix 21•3.
Gold $1873. Copper $3•500.
Palm $896. $1•335. €1•102.
IDR 14,135. MSCI(W) 633.
FF -20. DF -65.
Morning all.

I'm beginning to think that regardless of cpo prices be they $900 or $1900 REA will never turn a coin. There will always be a plausible excuse as to why a $ invested becomes $2, $4, $6 or more lost. A plague of locusts have nothing on the Indonesian Govt taxing palm companies more for their efforts....... Really? Shock horror!

Obviously the well flagged news re levies etc does not apply to Mpe, shares up 10 & Anglo flat as they must be selling a different commodity. Funny I thought they sold palm oil.
Whatever, REA dont deserve to get a break after this afternoon's news and I trimmed my holding as the bod imo are not acting in the best interests of holders other than hinting losses will continue for years to come which doesnt qualify in my book.

Hell did they really think the shares were going anywhere other than South after the RNS? For chrissssakes tell us something we dont know. As ever with this stock its 1 foot forward 5 backwards. I certainly have no intention of adding here now and thanx to the unnecessary RNS am back in the red.

Volumes became too difficult for me to reliably track and why should I given the many sub 50 trades? So, if your a believer of vol trades up or down to represent pis behaviour, good luck. Not long after lunch volume was 180,000+ shares in the main going down. Should these moves have any bearing on pis who hold come what may? I dont think so. Day to day mean little to year to year holders.

Its immaterial to me what the consensus opinion is be it Bull or Bear because I know 6/10 times I will call it wrong. If I cant correlate the nos to the sp why should Mr Market?
Seems there are still plenty of sellers who dont buy into cpo boosting REA prospects preferring to snatch the odd couple of hundred quid or trade a 5-10% gain. That's fine by me as fundamentals are an anathema to traders and covering dealing costs is much more important than punting XYZ stock for better or worse. Money has no loyalty to a cause or a Company.

My 75 close at year end looks ever more on the money especially after the RNS which tells us nothing other than they seek more loans and investors will now assume that the bottom line will show a net loss (a given). Nothing material to boost the sp was issued. Cpo price increases? Nah, these were negated by levies etc..,so no good news there. Perhaps there ain't any?

You gotta think any good news will be subsumed by creditors and will have no uplifting effect on the sp. So what exactly was the point? Back in the 50s shortly. My 75 YE close just became even money favourite who wudda thunk that yesterday?
I cant tell you how many ill judged RNS have tanked Co sps over the years I have been invested in the London mrkts but its lots!

It's a red morning for equities in TK, HK & Shanghai as traders started selling after a brief early rise, pis stayed out of the mrkt pending further vaccine news. Jakarta & Sydney were both much better.
News of the US tightening up restrictions on visas for Chinese people for a one month single entry dampened sentiment. Relations between the two countries continue to be fraught awaiting Biden taking over.
MSCIs broad Asia Pacific share index is up 16% ytd and early Monday hit a high of 644. Crude slipped back c.25c on the rising infections in the US.

Nos $ Oil $48•99. Vix 21.
Gold $1845. Copper $3•512.
Palm $905. $1•341. €1•106.
IDR 14,123. MSCI(W) 633.
FF +10. DF -77
Morning all.

Rea 175 (66)
Cpo $729 ($904)

Oil $64
Gold $1465

Ftse 7234
All 4020
DJ 27,910
SP 3136
NS 8621

$1•315
€ 1•188

Covid-19
05:30

UK 1,723,242 (61245)*
Indonesia 575,796 (17,740)•

* 17,271 cases
* 231 deaths
• 6089 cases
• 151 deaths

I see Michael Parkinson the preying mantis on the elderly now plying his disreputable trade on the backwaters of Freeview Channels touting cremation packages, is going to be one of the first to be vaccinated, in fact soon after Her Majesty.

Good, if that ain't the best signal I've heard about not to take one, I dont know what is. Incidentally in a recent poll 35% said they would not have the covid jab. Guess like me they are fed up with seeing Parkinson punting cremations to people who cannot afford them for no doubt a considerable wedge.

One of the main reasons for the increased levy on cpo is to divert production from export mrkts to the domestic mrkt for food but increasingly to support the ambitious biodiesel B30-40 program. In the past the Govt simply expanded the plantation acreage through incentives to smallholders to bump up output. Nowdays due to deforestation issues that avenue is being curtailed. This puts Indonesian planters at a disadvantage, to increase output to pay the levy which may not please investors already snowed under by costs etc while Malaysia reap the benefits.

Currently 10•6mha is used for palm oil production in Indonesia and it's been estimated that without any increase in yields per ha the planted acreage will have to increase to 18mha by 2025 to satisfy local demand and the biodiesel program without improvements in yield per ha.
Unlike Malaysia Indonesia lacks a National strategy for promoting improved yields. Malaysia averages 4•5t ha against Indonesias 3•8t ha.
The highest yielding area in Indonesia is Central Kalimantan where yields av 4•5tha.

Expected demand by 2025 will need yields to increase substantially if deforestation and the increase in land usage is to be avoided.

High yield (4-6tha) 10•6mha
Med yield (4tha) 14mha.
Low yield (3•8tha) c.18mha.

Indonesias use of cpo is projected to double by 2025 due to domestic food demand, biod and other industrial uses and will require production to reach (see below) from current in brackets.

Biodiesel 11mt (3mt, 2014)
Food 6•9mt (5•5mt)
Other 2•0mt (1•1mt)

Improving yields bring multiple benefits, reduction of land usage, threats to biodiversity, reduced emissions, reduced oil imports, more income to smallholders and the total economy. Has to be a win win for the Govt if not for oil palm estates unable to boost turnover or yields enough to cover the biod levy.

Covid-19
04:00

UK 1,705,971 (61,014)*
Indonesia 569,707 (17,589)•

* 15,539 cases
* 397 deaths
• 6027 cases
• 110 deaths

At the time of my cousins death in Johore the President of Indonesia was Sukarno not Suharto. I remember he had a very beautiful wife, Dewi Sukarno.

Yea I remember President Suharto from the 60s, he sent a plane load of Indonesian Special Forces to invade or cause an uprising in Malaya. They landed in the jungle about 10 miles from the estate I was on in Johore.
We sent in the Ghurkhas to sort them out. My cousin a Major in the 7th Duke of Edinbugh Ghurka Regiment led the patrol to track them down. In the ensuing battle he was killed. His funeral was held in Malacca and at the reception we were shown pictures of what the Ghurkas did to the Indonesians, it was a horrific sight.
He had come to see me on Eldred Estate 2 days before they tracked them down. I believe 60 were killed the rest captured. The Ghurkas losing 4 men.

Absolutely....mind you some slight compensation as the black stuff could be heading over $50 but methinks it needs to be $60+ to make cpo economic as a part substitute. India the most price sensitive importer of cpo wont be much pleased as costs get passed on and demand will inevitably decrease. Needs a re-think.

As from Dec 10th, Indonesia will raise the export levy on palm oil to $180/mt. The combined levy & duty on cpo exports will now total $213/mt for Dec cargoes.
A trader commented the move was priced in on BMD Cpo futures. The Govts commitment to B40 looks to be on track for next year.

Covid-19
06:00

UK 1,690,432 (60,617)*
Indonesia 563,680 (17,479)•

* 16,298 cases
* 185 deaths
• 5803 cases
• 124 deaths

Global 66•232m (1•525m)

The champagne corks were popping on the NYSE floor yesterday as all 4 major indexes closed at all time record highs. Since Nov the Dow has powered up 3716 (14%). The bears have been routed, the gloomsters retired to their Brownstones re-checking their spreadsheets to see where it all went wrong and the waiverers watching from the sidelines ruing their lack of will to enter the runaway mrkt. It has cost them dearly. I guess it's the age old, time in the mrkt not timing the mrkt.

Cyclicals have been the preferred flavour by pis. Energy, Industrials & Airlines have been on all buy lists these last 6 weeks. Techs have been pummeled but still lead the % gains this year (see below).
DJ +6%
SP +14%
NS +39%
R2 +13%

Taking the edge off investors euphoria was the nonfarm payroll nos which increased by 245,000 in Nov well below the 495,000 forecast by economists. It was the smallest gain since May. It has led investors to believe the stimulus package is now critical to support flagging jobs and the money will start flowing into businesses to enable them to expand and start hiring again especially in retail, leisure & hospitality.

Crude (WTI) had a good day closing at $46•26 up 23% last month boosting Big Oil Chevron & Exxon, both 4% better with Occidental flying up 13%. The sector has lagged the main market throughout 202O and could be beneficiaries next year once vaccines are rolled out and global demand resurfaces.
At NYSE close 11•4bn shares changed hands, risers outpacing losers by 3•5:1 with 50 new 52wk highs & no new lows.

DJ +249 (30,218)R
SP +32 (3699)R
NS +87 (12,464)R
R2 +44 (1892)R
WTI $46•26
10y/tb 0•970

What looked like a dull day to end the week saw buyers returning late on & trades perked up with some goodish sized buys.
Vols at 46,015 (93:1) in the buy column were nowhere near previous days but it's a Friday and investors were traded out. Shares closed at 66 on sells outpacing buys by 1•15:1 on the week. A healthy 745•9k traded.

Cpo which never hit $900 traded in a tight range of $870-$895 closing at $896. November has been a stellar month averaging $877 ($614) and ytd $716 ($545). The KLPI closed at 7349 off 5% ytd.
Palm stocks were mixed recent star performer Anglo (554) fell 92 on c.42k trades which given the recent excellent TU seemed a bit harsh. Three late deals rescued the days trading from being a total buy wipe out. Mpe (635) lost 10, Dkl off •10 and REA the only gainer ticked up 1. As ever all prices indicative only.
Evening all.