Member Info for JohnLewis79

I have cancelled my buy limit order as I was too optimistic that the shares would retrace to 52-55. I can't see that happening and expect the shares to move ahead now that the 'shock' the 'horror' of levies have been forgotten.

I need the Bid to clear 66 to be in the black, whether that happens before YE or not I dont know. Awaiting cheque clearance before re-buying my recent sale. Evil Knievil has a following so we might see some early interest this morning. Valued at £25m I think there's more than one puff left in this cigar butt!

Unfavourable weather and falling output will cut Malaysian palm oil production in 2020/21 to 19•3mt and Indonesia to 47•2mt. Indonesia still expects to export c.36mt. Malaysian November production nos due shortly are expected to have declined by 10% to 1•55mt, stocks off 2%.

Palm oil futures fell for the 3rd day on the BMDE to 3356 ringgit ($826) for Feb delivery. Prices are seen to be adjusting to Indonesias aggressive export levies, soyaoil weak prices and washout palm shipments to China.

Rea 168 (57)
Cpo $730 ($896)

Oil $64
Gold $1474

Ftse 7273
All 4033
DJ 28,132
SP 3169
NS 8717

$1•312
€1•118

Covid-19
04:30

UK 1,766,819 (62,566)*
Indonesia 592,900 (18,171)•

* 16,119 cases
* 132 deaths
• 6058 cases
• 171 deaths

JPMC prediction of a $1tn boost for stocks in 2021 due to demand exceeding supply did not help investors yesterday. The Bank forecast supply to fall by c.$500bn. The Dow called 100 better at open hit a session high of 30,319 (+146) before traders shaken by the latest infection data, 3000 deaths in a single day, the highest fatality number ever, rushed to sell. Not helping sentiment were reports from Pfizer that two allergic reactions had been reported by the UK regulator on roll out. Given the billions of people who will need inoculations its hoped by end 2021 there will be at least 10 vaccines in use. The sheer size of the task ahead dwarfs the previous highest ever 400m inoculation program for Polio.

Techs came under the hammer as US Federal Regulators accused Fbk of anti trust violations, buying up the competition for one and threatened a break up of the company. Shares came off $6 to $278 dragging other FAANGs lower, Amazon down $72, Flix off $20, Google falling $33 and Apple $3.
DoorDash had a stunning debut its IPO priced at $102 roared up to $180 in early dealings closing at $189 for a 86% gain. Airbnb will debut on Thursday, priced at $68 it has raised $3•5bn valuing the business at $47bn, more than Hilton, Marriott & MGM Grand combined. Pent up demand is seen as the driving force behind such a sky high valuation and hopes that travellers will avoid crowded hotels for the safety of villas and flats on their holidays next year. This year more than 200 companies valued at more than $50m each have gone public making it the busiest IPO year ever.

Tesla ($591) was off $13 on profit taking before news came out that one of his space rockets blew up on re-entry. So far bulls of Tesla have had the upper hand but the chorus of bears is increasing daily.
At close on the NYSE decliners outpaced risers by 1•09:1 on $12bn traded, 39 new 52wk highs no new lows.
DJ -105 (30,069)
SP -29 (3673)
NS -244 (12,334)
R2 -16 (1903)
WTI $48•18
10y/tb 0•928%

Nos: Oil $49•13. Vix 22.
Gold $1843. Copper $3•492.
Palm $896. $1•337. €1•106.
IDR 14,112. MSCI(W) 631.
FF-8. DF-38.
Morning all.

Not a bad day at the office buys outpacing sells by 3•2:1 shares u/c at 57 on 187•9k traded. No change in other London palm stocks as cpo put on $3 at c.$895. REA has lost 9 since the RNS so a lot to make up which on today's evidence is going to be hard work.

Of note, Simon of Evil k'n Evil fame spoke to Richard Robinow who said things were going very well. His son Luke Robinow looks after the company interests in Kalimantan. Evil said he had no idea why the Ords were down at 60, they should be at least 100. Who am I to argue?
Evening all.

Some decent trades this morning, buys outpacing sells by c.4:1 shares ticked up 2.

Price went the wrong way...

The odds of having a double yolk egg at breakfast are 1000/1 and some say are a sign of good luck. I hope so because I had one this morning.
I'm not a superstitious person but I remember when the price of M&S stocks pointed to rises or falls in equities, so why not double yolk eggs?

I'll leave a limit buy order with HL might get 3 times lucky?

Seems strange to me that REA got clobbered on the levy news but Anglo & Mpe both rose. Perhaps we have a lot more speculative interest here? Certainly as far as volumes and dealings there is a lot more action here.

If Mpe say there will be no material change to their 2020 results one would expect the same here. Two decent buys totalling £50,666 might be the start of a turnaround for the sp.
However given our debts the levy news is a downer and tbh I dont think a merger or t/o is on the horizon. Why would Anglo or Mpe want to pay off our 2019 $346m liabilities even if they could buy us on the cheap?

REA 174 (56)
Cpo $718 ($892)

Oil $63
Gold $1475

Ftse 7216
All 4003
DJ 27,911
SP 3141
NS 8654

$1•317
€ 1•188

Covid-19
04:30

UK 1,750,700 (62,033)*
Indonesia 586,842 (18,000)•

* 12,740 cases
* 599 deaths
• 5292 cases
• 133 deaths

The December 'Sell off' is largely a myth as since 1950 there have been 14 more UP months than down ones and the SP500 returns an average gain of 1%. Last year the 500 gained 9% its 4th best ever and so it continues as the 500, Nsdq100 & R2 hit record closes. The 500 trades on a p/e of 22x well above its longterm 15x.

Equities were boosted by hopes of a stimulus package being signed up this week and the Healthcare sector which saw buying interest. J&J up $3 to $152 after reporting its single dose vaccine could obtain late-stage trial results earlier than thought and Moderna gained $10 to $170 as Switzerland said it would increase its order to 7•5m doses from 4•5m. Pfizer ($43) now the front runner said it cleared the final hurdle for emergency use and roll out. Novavax once seen as the front runner lost $3 to $120 down from ytd high of $173. Others of note included AZ, Amgen and Dow inc ($55) topping the big board.
Boeing slipped $4 to $237 as it said it lost 63 orders for its ungrounded Max Jet in Nov. Tesla continued its meteoric rise adding another $5 to $646 as Musk taps the mrkts for $5bn its second capital raise in 3 months. The mrkt is in a very forgiving mood when it comes to Tesla.

Two new companies are coming to the mrkt, DoorDash the home delivery firm will start trading today its IPO priced at $102 and Airbnb on Thursday. On the NYSE advances outpaced decliners by 1•86:1 on 10•4bn traded with 48 new 52wk highs no new lows.
DJ +104 (30,174)
SP + 10 (3702)R
NS +63 (12,583)R
R2 +27 (1918)R
WTI $45•86
10y/tb 0•937%

Nos: Oil $48•62. Vix 20•68.
Gold $1861. Copper $3•518.
Palm $892. $1•338. €1•103.
IDR 14,107. MSCI(W) 634.
FF +25. DF +88.
Morning all.

Two late buys of 41,674 each at 60•48 boosted the days volume to 245•2k bumping buys over sells to 2:1.

Not a bad day after the hammering REA took yesterday. Justified or not we can debate that till the cows come home but buyers returned first thing and took the days volume to 161•8k,
buys outpacing sells by 1•4:1

The bid fell 4 to 56 but closed off 49 low and REA will be dealing with the cpo levy costs for weeks to come, as will Mpe & Anglo whose shares were unmoved by the levy increase. Why it should effect REA & not the other two is baffling although Mpe said it will have a very limited impact on their 2020 results, shares up 10 to 650 and Anglo rose 30 to 572.
Has the REA mrkt over reacted taking the shares from 75 to 57 in 2 days? Time will tell but it goes to show how jittery REA investors are constantly worrying that creditors might pull the plug. I dont care what Mpe says but any additional unwelcome costs do not go down well in my book.
Evening all.

At half time volumes traded were c.99•7k, buys outpacing sells by a ratio of 5:1 shares down 2 at 58. Have to say sentiment has been shot by the news of the never ending bleeding of the palm industry by the current Govt.
Nothing REA management can do about that and finding additional cost savings eventually become self defeating.

One cannot guarantee increasing yields per ha as too much is dependent on outside forces and we are behind the curve on new plantings anyway. Efficiencies in the running of Estates should be controllable barring any Black Swan events and one has to think REA are on top of this.

With no new/extension planting going on buying in smallholder ffbs wont help the revenues required to pay for these extra levies & duties so
some sort of amalgamation/merger is one possible answer made more necessary in view of recent events.
My preferred partner would be MPE as a management buy out looks very unlikely and Ord holders would get the thin end of the wedge, if anything.

Whatever the crunch is coming and REA need to have answers ready even if it means the Rubber Estates Agency ceases to exist nominally.

Should have outed my entire holding, grrrrr! Oh well I'm inured to these up and down-heavals in share prices.
Cpo better head upwards but not by too much as at $1000 that's $100 more than we pay now. Seems designed to keep palm companies in servitude to the Govt for evermore and investors holding out the begging bowl.

We can now add the Govt to the list of creditors we are working for.

At Cpo $900 levy ($195) & Duty ($52) will have to be paid totalling $247 or the equivalent on local mrkt terms. I assume the Co has been paying this extra cost at lower cpo prices for instance at Cpo $850 an extra $198.
So one can see an additional
$39 is not an inconsiderable 20%. Cpo prices north of $900 carry heavier duties, Cpo at $1000 adds $348 to the bill.
Not sure how sustainable this will be but the palm companies need to have talks with the Govt. Cutting the hand that feeds you is never sensible.

Cannot disagree with anything you said Shado. I have been an "off " "on" REA basher ever since I started posting here. How weird /stupid is that? A low ball take over is a possibility, low ball being operative. If the Robinows want out they have zero chance of seeing 200 imo and I doubt they would accept a sum lower than £100m which leaves the Co trading in the never never land the plaything of shorters and Day Traders.

Something has to change and fast whether a RI of 100m at 50p or similar, else Carey St is where this Co is headed. Regardless of that, this extra
Levy burden will hamstring the sp for the foreseeable. Trouble is I see nothing but head in the sand management....

90 year old woman cops the first ever vaccine dose. That's a waste. A PR exercise/photo opportunity playing to the gallery imo.