Member Info for Jatw

There will be more of these disclosures over the next few weeks….
This one relates to the position after the global offer….it will need to be restated for the additional shares issued in the over allotment. The CKHH position was restated because it lent the over allotment shares and has now got them back from the book runners.
Historically HCM has listed major shareholder in the shareholder information section of its website. Worth looking at in early august once all the adjustments have been logged and registered.

Risk v benefit is down to the stats…and the level of certainty required by the opinion makers. Clearly with some votes for this was a finely balanced opinion. The product must work on many patients for it to be approved in other markets…..there may be some conditional approval or restrictions placed by the FDA or further work required not the end of the road.

This is the Stella Artois of shares…..reassuringly expensive.

Has kicked on nicely following the trading update…….expensive continue to add.

Buy in London…..HK is going to drag this share price higher.
As has happened on two occasions this week London has been dismissive of the HK price only to have the US nearly match the HK price.

Currently HKD64.4 which is 600p
Potentially 25p per share waiting for day traders today……
I am going to buy, but I don’t have much spare cash.

HK is very excited by this news…..up 10%.

Somehow I suspect the FDA and EMA approvals will be coordinated…..neither will want to approve if the other has objections.
I was going to post a similar link about the MAA process….it is typically a year. US action date being end of April 22 makes it difficult for an earlier outcome from EMA.

The outbreak of lawlessness can’t be good for short term prospects and potentially much worse medium and long term…and yet today the so rises

I think this reflect a top up by Barings in the offer….he might have some carried interest in the fund which links them together.

Of more interest is the 5% jump in HK today. London has not adopted it fully which creates arbitrage opportunities for some. I can’t wait for the day London is fully connected to HK and these anomalies can be removed.
It was also the case on Monday that London was a cheap place to buy in expectation of a strong US opening. I doubt that will be the case of HK falls when the UK MMS will hammer the price. But there will be opportunities to buy cheaply in London.

No it will not cost more cash or shares,
The alexion price reflects the rise in the AZ price since the offer was made.

All approvals are now in and the deal goes ahead in 7 days time.
Alexion has been trading at 185usd having been 155 after the deal was announced. Certainly an excellent deal for alexion shareholders. Hopefully a good one for AZ holders.
The time to get the deal approved has been quicker than anticipated, reflecting limited overlap between the companies….there is a lot of hope for synergistic benefits between the types of product. A lot is riding on that, so we can expect to hear more on this topic.
The next AZ investor presentation will be interesting.

My break even is 799p
I had set myself a 1000p sell price which it was tantalisingly close to.
I can wait….but it will not be getting more from me in the short term.

Iovance can’t seem to agree with the FDA how to measure their therapy for approval purposes.
They have been rejected twice…..it seems per their website.
Whether this is just a delay or whether it becomes an existential issue for their TIL a therapy remains to be proven….the hope is there but delayed…

Anyway the market seems unimpressed.
This will either be a slow recovery or there could be a bid…..but the bid is unlikely to be at what management thought the company was worth a year ago…so my hunch is no bid and a wait of a couple of years to see this back above 800.

HK trading around 539.
Even with a spread to 530 the uk market is cheap…
Nasdaq was at 540 yesterday.

Can’t see why there is such a discount on aim.

First commercial sale…..only a few days after approval.
I feel a sales upgrade coming if only because orpathys did not appear to be included in the guidance….while it will take time to build up momentum there is 6 months of sales to be had.

It is certainly a jam tomorrow and the day after update….which may be intended to invite offers.

However I am getting more pessimistic about the prospects for Proleukin…..although it will probably cover its cost in the medium term it is not the great opportunity we were sold…..and competitors will soon be eating into its market…..hopefully it is lesson learned not to buy a product as its appeal wanes to its owner…..better to take a share of revenue and distribute rare disease medications outside US and China main markets… capital lite more predictable and a strength that can be grown.
Undervalued yes…..but PE will not be able to pay too much because the co is already loaded with debt…a good 2021/22 could see it rise back to 800, with further progress in 23. However there have been a number of mishaps in the last few years which is why it is around half the price it was when it acquired quantum pharma.

HK$ 625m or approx US$ 80m added through the over allotment process.
Cashed up….and the second GA USD 100m still to come through as long as the ADS stay above 30USD

Must be about $1bn available in cash or undrawn debt facilities now available and can run for atleast 3 years before adding sales margin to these resources. Hopefully enough is in the tank….and if they do want to buy a large molecule platform they can issue equity….

European partner for surufatinib May also generate a large upfront fee.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hang_Seng_Index
Contains the rules…other websites are available with the same data.

The rules I found implied a minimum of two years, unless they get to be a top 25 mcap player. Top 5 can go straight in. So Not soon according to the existing rules…..however there will always be exceptions and the CK group has some influence. The Chinese love a gamble and buying outside the main index anticipating entry in the future is quite a good bet.

Btw it seems yahoo has fixed its feed for Hutchmed in HK.

Get as much as you can inside ISA or pension tax free or sell and take as capital gain once announced.

Is due early this week……mgmt has indicated strong trading so expect it to be decent. Sp is fully valued…

Hoisting the for sale sign or white flag