Member Info for Jatw

HK investors off to a 17% day 1 stag.

Suspect 30th will be a down day if they sell

Is it wrong to feel slightly cheated….that the new shares have been issued at an unnecessary 10% discount and the company robbed of $50m…..and they gain 10% immediately….

Hopefully it means little if the market value increases significantly from here.
The big gain from this exercise is that no new money should be needed……unless that twinkle in CHs eye is a shiny new project.

And has scooted up past $28!
Maybe they will get the maximum price of the offer after all.

Will That prove to be the strike price for the offer?

The drug is approved….there was a more difficult population which seems to be the subject of the confirmatory study…..whether the label is restricted now is not clear. Hopefully it is available for use, but could be restricted at later point. The original study had quite long duration, so if new candidates are needed then it could be a couple of years for the confirmation to arrive but if it is further follow up with the study patients then remeasurement could be quick. I just wonder if the US will be more directive.
The HY results and future pipeline updates need to provide the insight needed.

I agree with your sentiment andsoforth.
I have been adding recently for a long term recovery……however we know markets look forwards and can run the sp up anticipating recovery, hence I would not want to be out of the market at the moment. Equally the markets punish unexpected bad news….so this is one to have on the more speculative end of a diverse portfolio.
IMO it is a buy at current levels, but worth waiting to see if the HY results include major new provisions.

Thanks for including the link…..we must have been typing at the same time.

The AZN RNS about Orpathys is an expanded version of the HCM RNS….generally more informative.
Hard to believe it has taken 10 years to develop the drug in collaboration with AZN…..could they have gone faster? Inevitably advances over that decade are now being progressed by rivals….if they are quicker to market it reduces the window for AZN…speed to market is a KPI for the current pipeline.
Q1 Let’s see how the drug is marketing by Azn…it was not in the sales numbers (apart from a milestone payment).
Q2 what does the confirmatory study mean for the timing of the US NDA. Usually they are most cautious.

The deadline for HK applications passed at noon HK time……as it was an electronic process it should not take too long to add them up and set the price.
The volume of orders and any scaling back or reallocation will be published on 29 June.

HCM will trade under the 13 company code previously used by Hutchison Whampoa prior to the Creation of CKHH which is now company code 1 in HK. 13 is a lucky number for some.

Just like buses….you wait for ages for approval and then two come along at once.
Secures the approval milestone payment and AZ should be selling it for several months o f this year.

I expect a sales upgrade with the HY results.
The shorts will close tomorrow and there should be a strong recovery after the pricing is set for this issue.

Wonder what General Atlantic will do?
Presumably they could spend their 100m in the issue or in the market and buy at less than 30US per ADS…..and keep their option for another 6 months to see what happens.

The issue is priced tomorrow…..to some extent it was a surprise that the US price closed above the maximum sale price….if you don’t underwrite the issue price, then it is possible for punters to sell and hope to buy back in lower. I think that is what happened yesterday.
If they set the price around 27us for 5 shares they will have done alright.

Fungible should mean treated the same as. There will be some statements in the offer document that will show they have the same rights
I assume it also means they can be converted to be held in HK, AIM or NASDAQ. There is a process to convert between aim and ADS, but I have not used it and I can’t think why anyone would want to. You can hold HK companies such as CKHH as CDIs which are like ADS but held in Crest accounts……(HCM could go down this route if in time it decides AIM is no longer fit for its purpose).

What they need now is market makers that can trade in all three markets which will create a continuous and more stable price rather than having 5% bid offer spreads suddenly hit the market at close or when the US is closed.

The extension of sulanda to pancreatic nets is timely and should result in an uplift in sales in H2.

The global offering raising USD 450-500m raises sufficient cash such that it should be a long time before they need to tap the market again. The obvious need for more cash and regular injections has been a big drag on the market. While the issue is yet to be priced it looks like it will be close to the current share price which is a good deal better than the raises a couple of years ago.
Once this raise is done, we can look forward to pipeline advances being reflected in share price uplifts. Time to buy.

Banner, it is a high risk buy. It depends on whether you think the sp loss of double the EBITDA shortfall is a fair reaction.
My view is that this share crashed in March 20 because of debt level and unknown pandemic impact. There was a potential PE bid that pushed the SP higher, it then fell back until the BOD bought in the low 600s. It then advanced slowly back to the 800s. Management announcements have not been positive, but the market assumed a faster return to pre covid levels of trading.
Management has been most positive in the recent profit warning, whether this was to prevent a greater downturn or they do see recovery time will tell.

We will not see 800 again for a while, but a move towards 700 is quite possible….the business will survive covid and is profitable which I think will prevent the worst outcomes.
I agree with questor a buy for the brave / optimistic…for the more cautious wait a year to 18months….and for a positive momentum to build before buying.
I don’t see enough to sell at present. There is always the prospect of selling one arm of the company if a buyer comes along prepared to pay top dollar, the services arm is attractive like UDG.

The MAS has reprimanded AIA, Pru and Aviva to over sales based remuneration.
Not clear whether this includes a monetary sanction.
The latest indication of tightening regulatory grip in Asian markets.

There are some smart people in Lancing MI, however there is probably a bit of a culture clash with the new board parachuting. In from wall st. Would not be surprising if the Jackson sp does rather well post separation after extracting its 2bn dowry from Pru.

Fairly typical MM response to mark down 20%.
Always seems an overreaction to me…..Proleukin always seemed a big bet and not one that is easy to pull off. Have to hope erwinase does better from the outset.

CBB so close only to have hopes dashed again…

As always the attractiveness of a share depends on timescales.
IMO the yield is too high and the sp will be driven up to 300 and a more reasonable yield.
The SP will also respond to market movements and as asset manager these will be skewed to bad reactions to market falls which happen from time to time.
Keep topping up when the wider market falls and IMO you will not go too far wrong with this one in the next 2years.

Thought we might get an update with the major acquisition news….suppose we’ll have to wait until mid July. Hopefully positive sales and increased profits can drive the SP a little higher.