Member Info for Jatw

Looking across the globe many life assurers / asset managers are trading at pre covid levels. OMU is an exception it is still 30-40% off. Southern Africa may be different to other parts of the world in its ability to deal with the pandemic, but it does not seem to warrant such a discount for OMU.
I anticipate much of this discount to unwind this year.
My target is 90p at the year end.
Other views?

It seems we may be able to post Qs during tomorrow’s session and interestingly there is a second Q&A session noon HK Thursday. Seems to be warming up Asian investors for something……btw it is probably no coincidence that the largest recent falls have been when Asian markets are closed…so they may be decent sized holders already.

The closure of the property funds is an opportunity to reflect on what changes the FCA consultation about a duty of care to the consumer……it goes further than Treating Customers Fairly and a customer centric culture. It may lead to the withdrawal of certain products and more assessments of culture by FCA.
Good customer outcomes should align with good business practices. All Financial services companies need to take heed. Property funds have been known for years to be vulnerable to suspension, arguably they are not fit for purpose and would fail under a duty of care.
What else would fail?
Annuities that don’t repay the initial premium?
Differential pricing between existing and new customers?
Relying on the small print to reject claims if the main literature is commonly understood to indicate wider cover?
Savings that indicate a future investment return that is not delivered?
Savings accounts with minimal interest after an initial period?
Q is the world going to get harder fo Aviva and their kind?

I am pleased OMU is embracing the market and providing quarterly trading updates.
I would have liked a comparison of Q1 21 vs Q4 20 to show continued progress, but the comparison with Q1 20 is highly favourable.

Early trading shows OMU.JO rising strongly.....may that continue throughout today.

Longodds thanks for confirming my nagging doubt that there are additional rules that allow unprofitable biotech listings.
No one wants excess dilution......but remember we are slowly being diluted by these $100m blocks, only 2 or 3% at a time which management intended to offset against pipeline progress and an increasing market capitalisation. Would a 20% dilution to raise $500m been worth it two years ago.....quite possibly but we will never know.

Or just type company name dividend 2021 into your search engine....that usually works just fine.

Where is the cash?
Most likely in the bank....not earning any interest....I am sure they will do some deals with it....but some is likely to become working capital either stockpiling raw materials or funding receivables. Given increasing inflation expectations they probably should be stocking up on raw materials.

Unlikely in my view without a bid.
Likely to stay in 150-180 range. Positive customer cash flows and high assets under administration may push it higher, but this needs to be proven in HY and FY results.
Supported by buy back in the medium term so a good place relative to competitors to invest if concerned about a market fall.

Aviva is to wind up three unit linked property funds that have already been suspended for 16months.
Bad luck for these fund investors...and some poor publicity for AV, but they will not be the last.
Overall minimal loss of future profits.

Thanks spikeyj
I focus on life insurance/asset managers and pharma which allows me to read around the companies and form views.....and test them out by sharing. I have (largely) given up commenting on SP movements and focus on news or events. It also helps to have worked in one of those industries.

10 papers leading to $100m or more to be spent on follow up work.
The main thrust appears to be combinations for surufatinib and fruquintib. The preliminary work was announced about 12-18m ago so now we are going to see what this might lead to.
Plus evolved data for sanetP and the US bridging study supporting the recent US NDA.

What I am more immediately interested in are the q1 sales in China and the plans to distribute in the US, Europe and RoW.

Changes announced today coming into force Jan 22 require new listings to have been profitable over the previous 3 year period (HK$80 aggregate). Bizarrely this means HCM could list its OTC operations, but not the discovery platform.

So it may be 2022 or bust for a HKSE listing. https://apple.news/AoEG3964rRyi-mAdUvGhiTg
Although I thought they had additional rules for biotechs to get round this problem.

Referencing th 10 papers to the company presentation
10 papers at asco21. Unlikely to be genuinely new, but we need to understand their impact on the pipeline. Links to the lastest corporate presentation 12 May.

Savolitinib 1 paper
P8 global study, Savo second row ph3 in planning
met+ referenced on p34 calypso starting reg study mid 21. Expect analysis of the 10 cases referenced. Q how good is Savolitinib? Worth progressing to ph3 trial.

Surufatinib 6 papers
A, US apt’s with NET....important bridging work for NDA recently completed p26 more data
B, p9 subset of Suru row4 Tuoyi p27 says select up to 3 subsets for phase III studies
C, p9 subset of suru row 5 Tuoyi. Presumably these are the ones selected
D, p9 subset of suru row 4 Tuoyi
E, p9 Sanet-p data used to approve in China and being used in US NDA...p25 more data available?we will see how good surufatinib is
F, p8 surufatinib row 6 + pd1, initial work

Fruquintinib 2 papers
A, p9 subset of row 3 +tyvyt
B, p9 subset of row 5
These appear to be on p31, one tislelizumab, one geptalolimab.

306 paper
P8 early work on solid tumours

It looks like the Sp has consolidated into the 800-850 range....I am hoping it now moves into th 850-900 range with increased index linked earnings supporting this.
Full recovery of meter installation and expansion of the CaRE pipeline will be needed to push it higher in the medium term. We will have to wait for the HY numbers to see it advance much into the 900s

Not a positive sign, missing a trick even if they only said trading in line with expectations.

Seems all is well in SMS. Trading update is on track.
Next news is late July.....
I anticipate the SP trading in a slightly higher range, depending on overall market conditions.

The bounce since March has been worth 15% for £ investors but closer to 25% for $ investors.

Can see this becoming more popular stateside and getting back to 90GBP when the alexion deal goes through.

Currently treading water and paying the price of not giving a trading update ahead of the AGM last week.
I am not sure we can read anything into the lack of an update.
The macro economics look better and should favour a better capital position.....if there have been lower sales of lumpy bulk annuities that may conserve capital.....but there is plenty of time to sign some deals before the HY.....
Looking for decent capital generation/releases at the HY and an improved solvency capital ratio to spur the share price on.

Oh and PHNX is raising about 500m by selling its European businesses.....that cash will need to be spent on something.....

It is an odd conclusion that it is difficult to split the Pru and M&G businesses apart. Why you would want to do that if you can afford to buy them both is the question to ask.
What is true is that a large chunk of M&G AUM are generated in the Pru business. There remains a 30bn book of annuities owned by the shareholder but the rest is client money. The annuities should not be too difficult to dispose of, similarly the With profits fund if you don’t like that business....but that is what Pru comprises.
Maybe it means the asset manager which is where shroders would get synergies is not worth very much on its own. And they could gain more through targeting a smaller player.

My opinion is that MNG is likely to get its M&A in first to bulk up as a strategic protective measure. They need to add 3/4bn mcap to be the same size as their most obvious UK threats.