Member Info for Jatw

JXN a shares will be issued next weekmanagment will then be able to commence the HK raise.

They should get on with it quickly. It will cause a dip but should rally once done.

We will have to see what Elliot thinks should happen…..maybe a sale of one of the divisions?

I would rather they were service and distributors for others products than product owners (much more stable). They have announced a series of new deals in the last few months.

Expect some turbulence.

Do they want to sell one of the two divisions?
They usually write a letter to the chairman stating how they think value can be realised.

The Aussie investment firm is better known in the UK as J O Hambro.
Just raised its stake slightly.

The Sanovo ph III trial is a big deal.
The first line setting is where there are the most patients and hence the largest revenues.
The question is whether the gain from a tagrisso + orpathys regimen outweighs the additional expense and side effects.
Orpathys has a good toxicity record and has a good chance of a positive result….it looks like the study may have to run for 2 years….a positive result will be valuable.

In the US you don’t need a vet if you have a gun.

The share prices in HK, UK and US now appear to be closely matched.
There will be no progress today bc it is the US Labor Day holiday and the Nasdaq is closed.

Stock connect is positive if you can market to Chinese mainland investors…..they have so much choice already…but as one of the leading innovative biopharmas Hutchmed has a chance of building a following.

The asset managers that offer funds whose benchmarks are the indices HCM are included in can choose not to invest but take the risk of underperforming…..most funds will hold most of the constituents but vary the weighting to what they think are the winners.

As a new constituent, HCM will attract some buying from these funds.

T will be interesting to see if trading volume increases inHK. Next week.

Graffiti - the JXN demerger has been troubled and needs time for a valuation to emerge from the chaos of the deal
1 the sale of a 10% stake to Athene for $500m and further value transfer via reinsurance looked a little desperate at the time
2 firing the CEO and CFO
3 inability to extract any funds to Pru makes it look like JXN needs capital….yet it is suggesting a $325 to 425m distribution in year one.
Metrics for yield, capital, shareholder assets are inconsistent.
The shareholder base needs to change to a US investor base which will take time.

For those who can wait 2 years there may be good value here, but at less than 3bn USD it looks like a bolt on acquisition for a. US player….which begs the question of why Pru could not find or would not deal with a trade sale.
It is a hard sell with the missteps above…now reflected in a lowly valuation….the tone is probably set until the FY results next feb/mar.

I don’t blame you for exiting….at an all time high….
All Aim stocks are risky, but I feel this one is supported by some solid assets and a favourable public policy agenda…..its main risk is the new market of grid scale batteries…it is very small in the grid scale projects compared to the grid and power distribution cos….and if the projects overrun build costs there may be little margin left….I guess that is your buy back scenario with 25% off after a profit warning.
Anyway the future is still looking positive I will run this a little further.

What if MNG is the leader in a merger or is predator…..
Quite likely to add to UK Wealth Management…or complementary asset manager.

I am sure Mng will already hold some debt/shares in Pru….within their client funds…and may participate in the HK raise, but they are hardly the target investor for Pru so I doubt it will be marketed hard to MNG.

I can’t see MNG getting back together if that is what you are hinting at. So any investment in Pru is held for the investment returns.

It seems Jxn was an irrelevance to Pru….as it has already regained any drop from the demerger.

It seems the JXN When issued trading might be a bit of a false market. When MNG demerged there was a 6m period of turmoil as shareholders sold/bought in….I expect JXN will be the same, but worse given the UKshareholder base might be more likely to sell JXN than US clients selling MNG.

US clients selling Mng I. The early days got a poor deal….as will UK a shareholders this time around. Best to hold JXN as I suspect it will be higher in 12-18m time. The prospective yield is around 14% which is unrealistic, at 7-8% the sp would be 50-60 USD.

As for Pru we have an almost exclusively Asian operation that needs a capital injection…..but at what price….tempted to cash in 50% of my holding and repurchase in the fund raise period.

1 ask HMRC what the valuation point is….and check the prudentialplc website. When MNG demerged they provided a calculation of how to divide the capital cost….they may do something similar for the JXN dividend demerger. Valuation date may be complicated by the date the new shares are issued. Yesterday was certainly an entitlement date like an ex-div date, but the shares are not officially issued for a couple of weeks and are trading on a when issued basis….the values could be quite different.
2 ask your broker…but yes get the form filled out it can’t do any harm and may be needed to sell them. The capital cost for future disposal and CGT will be whatever the dividend income value is.

Analyst target prices have moved on recently.
The average of 10 reported by Yahoo Fnance is $47.39 per ADS.
The value prior to the HY results was $41.35 so that is a near 15% gain….

MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION

My install of electric and gas smart meters went well this week. Good customer service.
Trustpilot reviews are 1 or 5* depending on communication, attendance and outcome of the install.

Well 80p has come up very quickly…….

The recent interim dividend was one third of the two dividends paid in respect of 2020. This mechanism tells us very little about management view of capital. They have said generate 2.2bn in the period up to 2022. Have a progressive dividend, pay off debt down from 30% to 25%. Leverage.

A strong capital position gives optionality to pay it out, use it to expand the business or keep it for a rainy day. Long May MNG (and others) have strong capital positions.
When a share yields 8% there is little benefit in raising the dividend, if there is spare cash a buy back is more tax efficient, should support the share price and increase earnings per share.

Opened at $25, now showing at 32.50 ticker is JXN WI
That is a whopping 14% yield based on a first year payout of $325m

And just under 60p per Pru share.

Surely JXN a is worth more than $2.3bn.

Looks like a bargain, and the market is going to stiff the forced UK sellers.

TNBC 10% of breast cancer, 28k new US cases pa, 150k living with the disease after diagnosis.
EC 66k new US cases pa with 800k living with the disease after diagnosis.

Both sound like decent sized markets to pursue with patients needing lengthy treatment..but it will take some time to generate sufficient study data to gain approval…hence it could be exciting in 2-3 years time…..at the moment it is a promising Avenue to explore and well worth the initial investment.
It would be good to know how the 300m erase arch budget is allocated across product strategies.