Member Info for Jatw

I suspect the IFRS results could be volatile….and market dependent.

The presentation to analysts seems to be a good teach in about JXN and its hedging practices.

Variable annuities and their hedging blew up a number of insurance cos back in 2008. JXN survived and thrived so while this is a cause of risk and uncertainty we should take comfort in their record..

Undervalued in my view.

Up13%, and over USD31.
With a buy back of 10% equity it looks like a sure thing to be able to buy now and sell to the company over the next few months….of course if the sp keeps rising they will buy back fewer shares than anticipated….it will certainly should give eps a good uplift in 2022.

The major news was a 50c dividend and a USD 300m buy back approx 10% of the equity.
The after market announcement resulted in a USD30 price, although how much of that will carry over to today will be interesting.
JXN said it would distribute 325-425m in its first year…..so this is delivering on that strategy….Pru could probably have extracted this cash from the business but I suppose it provides some solace for those continuing to hold that there will be support for the share price in the short term and dividends….
JXN is undervalued in my view….but that is the same as MNG stuck with a high dividend yield.

One of the tropes of investing is that shares in mature companies eventually perform like bonds…ie the price is stable and the yield predictable.
If that is true for MNG it is a high yield bargain.

Q3 results today have quarterly sales at USD190, so their run rate is approx 800m pa. This is up 90% year on year.
Davey highlights their Mcap as significantly higher than HCM, I think we can see why….as their pharma sales are 8x.
The outlook for HCM is for rapidly advancing sales…..and presumably a much higher mcap….as the gap closes with Beigene.

LLoyds certainly has the fire power to acquire QLT, but I am not sure how that would go down with SDR and their wealth JV….it would seem to be a direct competitor.

The market seems to like today’s news.
Meters are clearly a large part of what the company currently does…..if they start losing contracts because of consolidation of suppliers then breaking up the company and selling the meter business becomes a viable way forward.
In the meantime t was good to get 50MW of batteries into testing in line with cost expectations.
Managing construction of the next set of batteries will bring cost challenges but increases in construction may well be offset by falls in battery costs…..technology gets cheaper and more powerful every year and I have no doubt that will be the same for batteries.

I expect SMS to build its businesses to diversify away from meters in the next few years….the political climate favours them…financing should be no problem, winning the bidding for contracts will be more interesting but against the backdrop of a rapidly developing market there should be plenty to go round….
I remain positive on the outlook.

London market has been trading at quite different prices to Joburg
Both are now without the Ned bank share unbundling
Joburg rate is about 68p
London 73p…..
I am not buying that premium.

Meters continuing at run rate……
Grid scale batteries going from strength to strength….this new business line will become much more significant for the company…..
There will be further green opportunities…….smart heat pump services anyone?

It is a steady Eddie….don’t expect it to motor too far…..180 tops unless it attracts a buyer for one or other divisions….would go well with MNG.

Excellent capital day statement today….sets out the large capital return in H1 2020, a doubling of profits to 2025 and a revised higher dividend policy.
Buy buy buy

After a non news retreat to 140, there has been a no news recovery to 155.
Capital markets day tomorrow including a flow update for Q3.
Quilter is now a fee earner with a largely staff cost base…Asset base is critical will they have matched SJP? And SDR? For flows?

Exactly my thoughts…..looking at the corporate presentation management are meeting all their expectations and perhaps more on pipeline development.
The 2025 vision is clear…and achievable based on the current pipeline making sufficient progress for NDAs to be submitted by end 2023….

Can buy back just OMU ex Ned on Thursday. Could be low 60s. Anything under 70 represents a profit on sales just above 80p.

That is a massive increase in complexity to go to 20 new countries…..each with their own ways of doing things….
The next break up in 10 years time…..Africa to go it’s own way

Let’s hope the Chinese regulator is well staffed and can act promptly with due skill and attention without political interference…..that is the way the Chinese people will benefit most fro the innovation taking place n China…..and further companies with the right ethos such as HCM.

Staffing levels should resolve with higher pay…as long as it does not morph into poor service it is containable and .the customer will pay more. who will say they let their pet suffer.

My dog got bitten by another dog yesterday…..owners ran off. The check up and some antibiotics cost £84 which is a billing rate of about £300 ph….comparable to private medicine/dentistry….if the managers/ directors get greedy and price gouge clients when they are vulnerable that is when the reputation of all vets will suffer….

The October r company presentation suggests the annual incidence of ITP (target of 523) is 91k pts in China.
If successful that is easily a non trivial sales value.
20%-40% market share (18-36k pts) x duration of response. (No data available yet, but say 6m) x $1000 price per month = $108-216m clearly a wider variety of outcomes are possible based on take up, pricing and duration of treatment.

Who sold 8m shares yesterday? About 6% of the issued shares. And who is buying them?
RNS due soon.

Another $18m in annual interest costs saved by today’s refinancing….that makes about $140m improvement for 2022.

I am sure there will be some further trimming of central costs….but if you transfer work to HK there is little cost saving…so do the tasks where there is critical mass of skills and they can be most effective…..London provides the finance, but what you can’t have is London dictating to Asia operations.
The question investors should be posing is about how much London costs compared to moving the corporate domicile to HK. Yesterday’s budget may help to push Pru further towards Asia. I assume they losers from overseas RnD changes and the rise in Corporation tax commences shortly…..