Member Info for Jatw

HCM has held up v well in HK today, but others I track incl innovent, junshi and Beigene all have fallen 8-10%.
I see Beigene has closed its star market IPO at a 40% premium to the HK price, the shares are not fungible.
While these are extraordinary times it seems odd to have such large movements that don’t impact Hutchmed….what do these closer to HK think is going on?

Pru has sold 2m jxn at 37USD in the share buy back. Apollo sold 1m. Both around 10% of their holdings and in-line with their share of the buy back. Thought Apollo might let their stake drift upwards but no they will have sold at a modest loss..

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/epizyme-presents-updates-symphony-1-140000625.html
Epizyme reporting data from the symphony 1 study that HCM is supporting in China, showing a90% objective response rate….only a small population of 40, but surely will lead to a positive outcome….Ph3 to follow quickly.

Reading the papers as ESMO and ASH I find they don’t give context, Eg what does the standard of care deliver and how much better is the studied treatment.
I suppose that is academics for you….lots of data and the incentive to propose more research.
I do take comfort that there is some progress to P3 trials. Hopefully there is more commercial insight in the corporate presentation as it develops over 2022.

It should not surprise anyone that insurers take a different approach to evergrande than asset managers.
Insurers will need to use their capital to offset the fall in bond prices….asset managers will invest other people’s money at other people’s risk if they think it is a good investment and they get their AUM fee. Of course they do need to find investors willing to take these risks which is why reputation is important…..it may take along time to know whether ASHM has made good calls on evergrande. Only then will it’s reputation be burnished or tarnished.

Just looking at the volume today there appear to be many buyers that are looking for a higher offer. The number of shares pledged to the offer is low.
Expect some announcements that this bid undervalues the company….there is a good chance of institutional investors extracting a higher price to get the deal over the line.

Meters will need to be 4G or 5G enabled from 2033.
My meter has a 10y battery life so that means they need to upgrade new installations soon to avoid a crunch in 10 yrs time.

Should not be a risk…more of an opportunity to refresh meters in the future..

A disappointing probable end…not what was promised a few years ago.
Atleast the Bod has landed a deal. If another bidder emerges that will be interesting, but better to have a respectable deal than to drive this bidder away……bird in hand etc.

I expect we will see clinigen services prosper….and triton sell the products. That creates a high margin low risk operation to bring back to market as the growth peaks in a few years time.

Good to see the combination therapies being tested have the drugs from beigene and innovent listed….that will make pricing the combinations much easier to sell one would hope.

HKD 55 is equivalent to gbp 5.32 and USD 35.25 that is a 16% premium.
Just crazy…..have never seen such a discrepancy before.

Davey….Beigene is also cheap now having fallen 10% in HK on Monday. That seemed to be the qu cue for the US sell off.

Meanwhile in HK …..it is as if yesterday did not happen…up slightly instead of down 10%.

What is going on?

I always felt JXN was fundamentally undervalued
If the vampire squid is starting at 40 I can see my $50 target for two years out coming up quickly.

God give me strength.
Would be my best shot at ggms

Data read out by end 22.
Regulatory submissions H1 23
Regulatory decisions H1 24, new global launches H2 24.
As long odds suggested there is the possibility of unlicensed and off label sales commencing well before these dates come to pass.

Thank you

I also found this leaflet …
https://www.ouh.nhs.uk/patient-guide/leaflets/files/12048Punlicensed.pdf
Which explains it.
I suppose a variant is the patient access program for US patients needing surufatinib while it is assessed by the FDA.

Are off label sales legal? Sounds a bit dodgy to me and not something HCM would want to do with its clean regulatory record.

Sadly the developing world can’t afford even the cheap mounthrinses produced in Italy. They cost too much to transport and after a few bottles the cost is more than a vaccine jab.

I suspect that it is too difficult to measure the effects and make. Important findings and the best result possible is promising but more research is needed.

The board through its acquisitions is rebuilding the company with higher margin products….it won’t be long before some are calling for a break up or sale to PE.

The messaging around Orpathys in the NRDL has been non committal. In the end it probably comes down to numbers….with a relatively small market without alternatives they have chosen to keep a higher list price plus some charitable patient access program as preferable to a significant discount. Maybe AZ think they can the sales they want to establish the product and they will not go for NRDL when there is more volume in combination therapies in a couple of years. Savo is owned by AZ after all with HCM a junior partner.
I am sure the inclusion of sulanda is a good move both politically and commercially….let’s. Hope the terms are reasonable and pave the way for future therapies to come to market with the support of the Chinese regulators.

£1bn /133m shares = 751.9p
That seems to be the indicative offer…how much more triton are willing to pay we will only find out if an auction ensues or the Board holds out for more.
A knock out bid where the Board makes a recommendation and would have to pay a large break fee is higher….prob less than £10.00 but a good bit up from 7.50

The board should not agree a deal that undervalues the business. They have AZN as a model of how to resist….but they have to make the case for independence too.
It would be pretty galling to see a bid at 1bn succeed and then see the business back on the market in three years time at 2bn.
The pandemic continues to affect cancer treatments, but there are bright spots where trading is strong…let’s hear what an independent future looks like….it is not the 600p recently available in the market.