Member Info for Jatw

There is a dividend of 1p and a suggestion that the total 2022 dividend will be more than 1.5p
The capital position has improved to above 160%.
The market can be fickle but this is good news and I am hoping just will beat the market by some margin today and start a re-rating.

As Basil Fawlty would say
“Don’t mention the war. I did but I think I got away with it.”

If there is a dividend it will likely be small but symbolic of recovery. The psychology of it should not be underestimated…..but if delayed another year it is not disastrous.
The business update flagged better capital generation….90p with the right messaging tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

To comply with market abuse rules, the maximum of 25% of the daily market volume can be bought back each session. With a trade of 7m/day worth around £14m, only £3.5 can be bought pday,it will take 8months to do the buying.
Which is presumably why Aviva and quilter are doing a B share scheme and consolidation to effect their buy backs……MNG must think there is a set of shareholders that want to sell completely rather than apply a reduction to all.
Not a fan of buy backs.. shares often fall once the programme stops and it is free money to hedge funds..with a guaranteed buyer

Good performance in Asia (again) growing revenues and future profits at 12-15% pa.
SP does not deserve this low rating….I feel a.bounce coming over 2022.

The best of the london listed life assurance / asset managers.
Clear strategy
Strong business units
Quality earnings
Strong capital position.
This is a good entry point….with only geo political factors to worry about.

I wholeheartedly agree with your postings Davey, a very disappointing share price does not reflect the progress of the company.
While I look forward to the launch of sulanda outside China it is clear the company really needs the regulators to meet their commitments fairly.
Re the noise about doubled losses, this was expected and I expect will grow larger this year. It would not surprise me to see cash burn of 600m in 2022/23 before increased sales narrow the loss in 2024 and go cash positive in 2025. I don’t think they will need to raise more cash as they can slow the pipeline cash burn if needed. Dilution is the real killer of development bio pharma cos from a shareholder perspective.
One of Christian’s parting comments was that they hoped for two billion dollar drugs….pricing ex China is the key to this…

I hope that sulanda in Europe and ROW can come with a substantial upfront cash payment by the partner as that will incentivise sales.

I suspect that the company strategy of going it alone is concerning the market. Although it promises to retain value, it may be at the cost of a slower delivery… depressing revenue in early years before competitors move the standard of care on.

We can see there is a bigger company coming as the pipeline develops and commercialisation builds out….we have to wait for the company / sector to be fashionable again. This probably needs:
China to get its act together on covid and use more effective vaccines
US China relations to warm a little
Russia to agree a peace deal with Ukraine
2023 losses to have clearly peaked
2025 cash flow positive

In for the long haul…

While I think the change inCEO will be a positive within China, it does make the company distinctly more Chinese to US investors.
With investors in Russia wiped out, some will want to avoid Chinese investments just in case that totalitarian regime does something adverse.
Mr Hogg was the personification of Hutchmed, with him gone investors are more easily able to contemplate significant merger activity……I do expect Hutchison to drive HCM into one a combination with one of its Chinese competitors…..maybe not immediately.

But will Yuwe actually pay up?

Thought weiguo su did well today…..as a scientist he knows his stuff.
Innovation will continue which is the lifeblood of the company.
It cannot hurt in China to have a local CEO.

Stunned by the announcement of his retirement….it was going to happen eventually, but I thought 2025 when the company is cash flow positive would be his exiting point.

As expected a significant loss of nearly 200m USD. Increased pipeline spend to 300m.
Sales were in the middle of the guidance……Elunate seems to be doing well, sulanda off to a slow start but May pick up with NDRL inclusion. orpathys looking good for a self pay product.

It is clear that China does not pay like EU/US markets….and the approaching milestones for sulanda will be critical events. No details of sales plans for EU/US and non core markets.

Further details of pipeline progress sound exciting - as they always do. Let’s see what Mr To and Mr Hogg ha e to say at 1pm.

I don’t think there is anything here to change the story…2022 will be more investment in the pipeline 350-400m….hopefully NDA approvals outside China and some US /EU sales in H2…..probably. 300m loss will result before increasing revenues land in 2023 that may start to reduce losses.

Earnings of $33…..trading at a multiple of 1.2
Amazingly cheap.

It begs the question “is Elunate approved in the HK SAR?”
I have always assumed it was…but if Macau SAR is separate, then maybe HK is too?
I have tried to locate it in the approved list of pharmaceuticals for HK SAR but there seems to be no record, so may not be available in HK itself.

What Pfizer wants to do with its 32% share.

There was talk when the merger and demerger plan was put together of there being a Pfizer shareholder distribution…..but that was pre covid…..and things have changed now that Pfizer has cashed in with vaccines and are flush with CA$H……why have they not bought out GSK?

Why is GSK keeping a 20% stake? My view is that it blocks Pfizer from selling out and keeps GSK on the Board with a blocking stake.

How will GSK monetise its stake? Slowly or in one go and over what timescale?

Seems to me that Hcm is a company that keeps to its path….
The results are a bit of an irrelevance at the moment. My guess is the at the headline loss will be better than expected with the pipeline spend offset by the sale of the JV and early sales,
Top end of the sales guidance for the three China products would be a good starting position.
Then it is down to the regulators as to how this goes….EU MAA expected March, Us pdufa date of end April, and two Candidates with Breakthrough therapy designation progressing.
A promising pipeline should begin to show through in valuation.

Edward Braham is a leading international M&A lawyer, recently senior partner at Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer.

Are recent deals just a warm up….CEO JohnFoley has previously said that MNG wants to be ready to participate in market consolidation when the pandemic is over…

Will it be as predator, prey or partner? (Probably the last one)

Today’s announcement shows that AZ got it spot on identifying Dai ICHi s enhertu as a blockbuster.
Worth every billion spent acquiring the rights to jointly develop it.

AZ still a buy at £90 for me.

This is a capital transaction not a trade for profit. If it generates capital of 35m or more
Then the P&L effect is offset by the movement I n reserves and the NAV will rise…..

A more secure company needing less capital is what the regulator wants….the capital can be reinvested or paid as a dividend…..so not necessarily a bad thing.

The sp is on something of an uptick since the results which were good. AZ continues to advances its blockbusters which will outperform as the world health services revert to non covid business.
Still improving and a long way to go in my view.