Member Info for Jatw

There is a lot of caution and talk about difficult Q1, logistics difficult and margin was down several % which is never good news.
The market is unconvinced and needs to see what VLG can do….
Can it realise the potential sales in the pipeline.
Does it have pricing power or will margins be further eroded by higher costs?
Plenty of potential….but management has promised alot in the past and then been caught out by events…..IMO there is another 12-18m of results to deliver before there will be a significant rerating.

Today’s rise in London is rare as it is unusual for London to move significantly unless it is to match a move earlier in HK or in the US.
Maybe there wil be a reason other than JPM changing its mind.
After what has gone before it seems foolish to suggest that a bottom has been reached, but there must be one and we may have passed peak pessimism.

Or maybe not
The results are underwhelming……but as flagged…..difficult Q1 does not bode well and these results are not rocket fuel for the sp.
Needs more director buys….a clear recovery in performance sales growth
Why the spare (inefficient) capacity in Sweden is trumpeted I don’t know…..it is an expensive country to operate in…..better consolidating in Italy? Or building a UK plant or Far East base.
The sales and marketing guys need to get out there, we need to be growing at 25-30% for a couple of years….

GA are no fools…..they want a closer look and the result could be to sell out (bad news) or increase their stake…..the 100m they did not invest at 30USD will now buy quite a bit more of HCM…..they may want more corporate action selling the legacy businesses, licensing drugs in and out, joint development outside China even pharma M&A. An intriguing development, will Barings want a director too?

Can’t see this news would have prevented director buys.

Two unrelated items…..you can access scmp via Apple news without the paywall intervening…use search to find s south China morning post and save it as a channel….I don’t know if it 100% of the main content but it gives a flavour of the HK environment.

We need to watch what happens at epizyme. It shares continue to collapse down 20% today to 47c Something will have to happen r they may be delisted for being less than a dollar for too long. The mcap is $77m and end of q1 cash is about $200m. Tazverik sales are behind plan.
If Hcm believes n the product they could buy the global rights when epizyme needs more cash and if they think epizyme can recor they should take a major stake for much less than their warrant. For individuals it is univestible at present.

Robert don’t worry about HK dealing there are many brokers you can use.
I have been buying HK shares direct through Interactive Investor. Once you have HK assets keep a HKD balance and don’t convert to/from GBP to keep costs low (avoids 1.5% FX margin)
The shares will be re registered easily during a delisting and there will be no need to trade to move markets.

Davey it will not surprise you to hear that I agree with what you have written in you latest posts.
The sector as a whole is out of favour, but for companies with sufficient cash inthe future prospects should not have changed fundamentally.
I suspect the surufatinib delay will cost 2-300m USD in lost margin over the years to eventual approval which may become cash they need to find through licensing deals.
HCM can sustain some lost/delayed opportunities but they may need to trim their research program to make sure they don’t need to raise more money in future which could be very expensive….
In the short term they have plenty of cash…..and if all goes well for a couple of years then I can see a decent recovery in the valuation.but cash flow is critical and will be what I am watching carefully.
In my mind I have discounted the MAA for surufatinib, it will be a pleasant surprise if it is granted, but I expect delays or subject to the multi centre study results. Fresco2 results is the next key event in my mind.

Ground hog month…..now clearly mid May not early May…..where are the audited results?

JXN Q1 results continue to show decent cash (AOP) generation.
Q1 Dividend of 55c (unchanged). Buy back about half done…..

JXN is down $8 in three sessions ahead of Q1 results….will they be poor?

Think the sp is more likely to start with a 1 than a 3

Is in chinese today for a CICC conference.
Hopefully they post an English version shortly as they have the DB conference tomorrow.

Anyone with a positive case about ASHM?

The INdex linked contracts will generate a lot more cash than previously expected….should bode well for creasing dividends.

Pencil glad you found the innovent and lilly comment…..their problem was they did not even do the bridging study that HCM did, so theirs was solely based on China data.
Sufficiency of data is another matter entirely, it seems HCM thought the FDA would accept China data plus bridging data as sufficient…..I just think there has been a policy shift and the small bridging study is now deemed insufficient. What is sufficient is a grey area that can shift over time. It would have saved a lot of work if the FDA had asked for a full multi centre study at the outset….at the time CH thought the bridging approach a cost effective and time saving approach, sadly it has been a ladder with a snake at the top.

EMA approach will be informative for surufatinib…..let’s see if there is a difference of opinion.

FRESCO2 for Fruquintinib and the regulatory approval now is critical for the future of the company.

https://www.biospace.com/article/coherus-junsh-toripalimab-and-axsome-axs-07-all-receive-crls-from-fda/

Hutchmed not alone with CRL today. Junshi rejected, but notes there is flexibility in shingle country data in this case.
HCM story linked
https://www.biospace.com/article/hutchmed-fails-to-get-fda-approval-for-pancreatic-cancer-drug-multi-regional-trial-required/

The US has deferred sanctions pending on a set of Chinese equities and the HFCAA has only identified China/HK as non compliant. Trump and Biden both like to bash China and this feeds into regulations
I think there is no longer a tolerance for China to compete as the US would see on preferential or unfair terms. Hence views to discount third country data becomes FDA policy and the effect is to reject China applications that have not followed the full process.

I am confident Surufatinib will ultimately be approved but it will take 3 years and tens of millions of dollars more.

I think US policy has shifted to require deeper US studies to prevent foreign companies entering US markets on the cheap. A year ago this might have been approved.
Note that this is the fruquintinib pathway for which they also have to do a specific Japan study.

The question is now what will the Europeans do. There is a less overt anti China bias, but it would be odd if they did not want their own multicentre EU study.
The weakening of globalisation will cost us all dearly.

I was not expecting a rejection after the application statement quoted by Davey, but the policy in the US has been shifting away from foreign companies.
This will not go unnoticed in the EMA.
So there will be a 2-3 year delay on ex- China revenues which s also a pity for patients.