Member Info for Jatw

Something has to give soon or the shares will be worthless.

The Board needs to raise cash or explain to the market why it does not need to….may need to be raised at£1 per share but the alternative is oblivion.

The pipeline of products is wonderful and Alexion purchase appears well timed.
Share price set up for success….Azn is now a large quality pharma.

Pete I recommend you look at tesco as an example….their sp has advanced since the special dividend and consolidation.

Interested in what this board thinks of some HK listed competitors. Where would you reinvest 10% of your Hutchmed holding if you wanted to retain exposure to China biopharma but reduce dependence on a single company?

I created a small short term holding in Innovent last week because it looks similar to HCM (plenty of cash, lengthy pipeline, growing sales….) but it has fallen further (75% peak to trough), so may have further to rebound than others. Beigene, zailabs also interest me because of their falls. junshe has not fallen (why I can’t tell).

What would you do?

Also in SCMP
https://apple.news/AupWmoe-PQpOgcceTOSCPcQ

Deloitte quoted
“ Our understanding is that the Chinese authorities are open to audit oversight cooperation with the US, and have been in communication with the US regulators on this matter,” according to a spokeswoman of the accounting firm Deloitte.

Q how much of the recent fall is attributable to:
The PCAOB dispute and potential for delisting in 2024.
Changes in sentiment towards China caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Potential delays to FDA /MAA approval of Sulanda
Inflationary pressures on costs on pipeline investments
Break even expectations pushed into 2025

The big fall seemed to be triggered by the publication of the first list of audit problems but the longer list might be used as reasons to limit the bounce back…..I am hopeful the US and China can resolve this issue for companies like Hutchmed. The potentially sanctioned military assets list may be harder to resolve as they will surely have more sensitive data that China may not want revealed to a US authority….

The announcement clearly blames the auditor…..but a delay did happen before when they changed the CFO.
The two acquisitions win 21 will make it a bigger job, and there is a lot of covid about which may effect staffing. A little bit more information about the circumstances might help the market avoid the worst of the speculative reasons for a delay.
The management commentary implies there is nothing untoward.

More of the same please for H2.
Interesting to note they have opted not to fight the CMA….the CMA has imposed an arbitrary ceiling of 30% market share….these round numbers plucked out the air by regulators are often wrong but can take years to fight through the courts…..a bigger competitor can do that and the landscape will change again in a few years.

This delay is not acceptable. VLG needs to change auditors.
Let’s hope it is just a resource issue rather than a problem.

There has been a steady rise in the sp following the results….I suspect this will continue across the next year or so…..still significant upside IMO.

The situation at evergrande seems to be getting worse.
Banks have seized deposits, the audit is extended and the 21 accounts delayed with the shares suspended. This one of the largest business reorganisations ever that they need to pull off.
There may be value in the bonds, but how and when that plays out is hard to tell.

CH did say the had hopes of having two billion dollar products, it was quite a surprise to hear him say that he is usually much more cautious....must have been demob happy.

In terms of the science, Hcm has engaged with FDA about the volume of data needed and the bridging study design so it looks likely to be a positive clinical opinion….although they could ask for additional confirmatory studies.
I doubt there is a way round the inspection parts of the process so that will likely lead to delay with covid continuing To afflict China Hutchmed should be looking at contingency plans and contract manufacture in Us/Europe. However that will also need inspecting so there could be a sizeable delay. Although we know there is potential for delay the company needs to get the story out rather than spring a surprise on 30 April which is there style.

btw does anyone else find this site has slowed up and typing is painfully slow to appear

And the reaction is a 25% rise, hopefully we can call yesterday as the bottom.
Now the next real problem is the April PDUFA date and how the FDA deals with not being able to inspect the factory which either requires a rapid improvement in covid cases around Shanghai or the FDA to have some flexibility in its rules…..hopefully the PDUFA rules don’t force a rejection. I have seen conditional approvals granted awaiting more data, but that is in the form of confirmatory trials rather than manufacturing compliance.

If it looks like a lengthy delay HCM should appoint a US contract manufacturer that can be inspected.. . Beigene is building a US plant. HCM should get a US plant started.

At some point the market will see that Hutchmed, beigene etc have been oversold and there will be a sharp upwards adjustment…..I feel this is a really obvious statement that I should, be averaging down…..it seems I will be getting double the number of shares in my Next ISA buy, maybe it will be x3 in early april.

I am also sure the lawyers and accountants will find a way around it. Hutchmed is after all a cayman island company…..surely they can be audited from there?

Sadly I don’t see the HFCAA adding much safety to the US markets, as ever protectionism ends up being a cost paid by those the policians say they want to protect.

Seems like ashm are taking a lot more risk with client funds than others.
Overweight Russia and Ukraine as well as evergrande.

This s going to hurt performance…then clients will move funds away…..once the brand is badly tarnished Mr Coombs will need to sell out……can’t see Ashm surviving in its current form….fire sale candidate in 6m. I will be avoiding.

MJC….MNG does not actively participate in autoenrolment schemes…it does provide investment services to DB pension schemes which is a growth area. The weakness in MNG distribution is apparent when competitors raised inflows and AUM, it does not have a direct pension drawdown product, customers are forced to advisors and little pensions saving is retained….the old M&G Direct business needs to be replaced with a broader platform service.
Prufund is only available via advisors who can only access it on MNG owned systems.

Still lots of modernisation to do in the UK retail business.

Pencil…..the reduction from 3 to 2 years is a tightening not a relaxation.
This is a battle between two regulatory systems…..the US likes to impose extra territorial rights….driven on by protectionist politicians…..remember this started with Luckin coffee submitting fraudulent accounts….it is a bad law driven by something must be done politicians rather than relying on the market and law to sort it out.
In HCMs case if the accounts are audited by PwC, letUS regulators and lawyers pursue pwc globally as they are accountable for their network quality.
Maybe a company based in China using a Chinese auditor should not be allowed to list in NY in the first place…..

Agree brighty the story of this company is going to get brighter.
I would expect the sp to trade well below NAV, a 30-40% discount would be appropriate and this equates to 117-137
The company is back on an even keel with more balance to its risks. The transition has been somewhat forced by regulators (selling down the LTM book) and incurred considerable costs shown by the write down in the P&L.
For those who want an adventurous CEO….that has been tried and found wanting. Life / annuity companies should be sturdy robust and boring organisations that produce predictable returns for customers and shareholders alike.
Now that the capital position is stronger we can look forward to the operating cash flows being used to enhance shareholder returns by paying down debt to reduce financing costs and raising the dividend. The 1p dividend costs about £10m so when profits are £200m there is a lot of scope to raise it. Similarly the mcap is about 4.5x operating profits….it is trading at a low valuation because of past uncertainty of capital raises….the dilutive threat is passed….we can anticipate a re-rating in the coming months…..

The comparisons with Aia will come shortly from market commentators. AIA has projected a 10bn USD return to investors over the next three years. Pru in its current form needs to pay down more debt before it can start on this route….but it should start throwing off capital from its 47bn USD Embedded value.
Low capital strain on On new business should allow more NB profits to flow through to shareholder returns.
The new CEO / CFO team will need to address plans for capital returns.

I know the Rns is factual, they are provisionally on the list…..what I don’t understand is that there is no statement setting out management expectations….eg fully comply with IFRS, employ PwC as auditor one of the leading auditors globally.
Maybe PCAOB has no reach into PwC in HK/China/ Cayman Islands….in which case all listings will need to be local and US investors will lose out.