Member Info for Jatw

The numbers are as good as management promised. The SP rating is still quite racy, somewhere above 50x
The 25% fall over the last couple of months is more to do with rising interest rates and what investors are willing to pay than a change in company performance…..may have to wait a year for the eps multiple to fall back to around 30x before much growth in sp can be expected….but this remains a quality share to own for the medium to long term.

QD22, you have the results…….interesting but the number of patients tested is not statistically sufficient.
The question now is do they do the large study……costs will be significantly more and may not generate sales….
This is not the future of the company so in my opinion they should pause testing..

The delay would suggest the trial was at best inconclusive and at worst a failure.

The vaccines have worked and there may be no sales bump to be gained now……best to let it go and be forgotten.

BHIM,
HMRC will tell you the rules, the best way is to tweet them as they have a team that handles these messages.
I think you will find that listing on any other exchange is problematic for INheritance tax purposes.
It can be expensive but you will have fewer issues if you use a fund that has an aim of qualifying for IHT relief. You may well need to pay for advice to get access to these types of fund because they are deemed to be specialist in nature.
I would not count on IHT relief being available for much longer it is an easy target for politicians of all colours who seem to think that being a shareholder is equivalent to being a tax dodger.

The vote was passed.
It is now over to the regulators, but as there is no real change to the business (it is being bought by a fund rather than a competitor) this should be a formality hence they expect to complete the deal in Q2.
The sp now reflects an nterest rate until the deal is done. They probably need US, UK and EU competition authorities to approve the deal.

Yes all will feel they have gained from the transaction and there is enough room for improvement for triton to justify not overpaying.

How long before there is a trade merger and then a relisting at a higher value?

WUXI is the latest China biologics company to be added to the restricted exports list.
It’s shares fell 30%.
No links to Hutchmed as far as I know, just more instability in US Sino relations.

Results now 3 weeks away….
Increased losses resulting from pipeline investment. Revenue from China drugs - hopefully beats the target.
Cash position only slightly down due to sale of OTC business.
Funding in place for 3 years…..all good.

SB, I think it is now about funds and the need for a capital raise…..if the board thinks it needs more cash then best to get it done soonest. The dilution will be less and the recovery quicker…..

It is all about growth and whether there is any to be had?
Asset management margins are under pressure. Can M&G raise performance to get flows moving in? Institutional flow at HY was positive and they should know before retail who to back. The responsAbilty deal needs to add value.
Wealth mgmt is a higher valued business because it is sticky, can the investments in the platform, Sandringham and money farm deliver profitable growth?
Will the retail proposition be successful in Europe?
Has the heritage book recovered from its problematic system changes?

Lots of opportunities for MNG management to prove their worth. If the initiatives start to pay off the Sp will respond….it should become apparent inthe next 12-18m.

Just has been a regular disappointment….not all by its own hand as the regulator has moved against it, particularly in equity release mortgages.. after the regulator moved house prices have boomed so the risk of properties being in negative equity is much reduced. What we have now is a better balanced business.

The concern for several years has been capital adequacy, the return of the dividend will mark the end of regulatory concerns about this and allow a rerating of the shares. An increase in interest rates should be helpful too as long as the effect on housing is not too great.

People still need the products….

Re the sp I would not expect it to trade much higher than 70% of NAV. A takeover would be around NAV. That is still 140-150p, I hope decent results should bring this in a further 12-18m.

I think it will go through. Although it just depends on a few large SH.
The market has been steady at 910…..no one has pushed it higher and there has been no sign of a counter offer. Most of the recent buyers will take the certain cash return and reflect that many pharma have lost 20-30% recently.

On the other hand if elliot votes no, they are almost obliged to find another way of realising $ 2bn.

You could not make it up….good job this deal does not involve a party in a brewery.

Keeping us in the dark about voting intentions

Where do people stand on this?
I like the idea of the business, watched it rise and now fall with no end insight to the decline.
Where is fair value r s it just speculative?

The tide can turn quickly with these v small cap companies.
Pre covid there was a steady self care business with excess manufacturing capacity.
They opportunistically started making hand sanitising gel (like many) for which there is now no margin (who cares), they also naively hyped a long term sales deal with China that could not be delivered (selling a western made chemical in China against local and copycat competition was alsways going to be a difficult task), the new China deal promises that VLG will be paid for what they sell which is a much sounder business. The core f the pre covid business is still there plus the two add ons.
We will need to see how the new products go…..I would prefer they don’t white label as that must mean a lot of value passes to the own brand and cannibalises the full price brand sales.

Market has probably overshot today by going over 50p…..but if your time horizon is several years it is probably a bargain.

A small bolt on adding impact investment capability. Adds about 1% to AUM.
Another long term investment in the business:
IFDL platform
Sandringham advice expansion
Money farm online distribution for Europe direct to customer
None are transformational deals, but given time improve capabilities.

Ideally you want to deal with strong partners….epizyme has looked weak for a while.
Overnight it has announced a share issue at $1.5 to raise 88m.
The HCM option is at $12.50 which is a long way underwater…….depending on how the trials go with HCM products they should considering offering to buy the ww rights to tazverik……I doubt epizyme would be in a position to refuse.
Epizyme has funds until Q3 23 so will need new funding….no need for HCM to rush into anything.
It is highly speculative at this stage……maybe after next years funding round.

It is a complex company and it does depend on how they have hedged the various impacts of changes in market conditions.
P57 of the SFCR report shows sensitivities to various events. Available on the co website. Under investors and reporting.
Eg 1% rise in the risk free rate creates 1bn of capital and increases the SCR by 20percentage points.
Which is good…..unless it triggers a house price fall which would PGS the other way.

A v disappointing reaction by the market…the numbers themselves seem quite good and much better than 2020.
Maybe they were expected further announcements on buy backs….this has declined in a sector that has been rising this year…..it looks like a bargain…we will have to wait for the FY numbers to see more….
They will become a target if they are not careful.

Cash at bank is what is important now.
HCM sp may be weaker but it has the cash to support itself for 3 years (potentially longer by slowing new projects down).
I will be buying more in my 22/23 ISA. And likely to get quite a few more than I had planned on.

No further comments on the sp until the FY results.