Member Info for Jatw

What does it need this extraordinary amount of cash for?
China M&A to kick off in 2022?

Doubly Incompetent. Porton for getting the science /submission not adequately designed / documeNted sufficiently to get approval. Clin for putting out a materially incorrect RNS
But atleast they corrected it promptly. Complete response letters are not uncommo but are largely avoidable with good regulatory engagement in the design of the trials

Now would be a good time to land the cardiff study (if positive).

For the last three months Hutchmed has been almost solely responsible for the 10% decline in my portfolio.
Today and for much of this week it has been a bright green spot in a sea of red.

I really have no idea how this share price works…..but it does seem to me that the future is likely to be much better and brighter by sticking with Hutchmed.

And worse with the new variant news……
Today’s fall is possibly overdone but there will be no buyers until the pandemic is under control in Southern Africa.
I sold to avoid taking NED shares….I will watch the share for news but I see no reason to buy back in…..too risky and one for the brave at the moment.

Karv
I assume you are referencing the transfer of £12bn annuities to Rothesay.
The economic value was already signed over to Rothesay by reinsurance.
This legal action transfers the ownership of the policies to a Rothesay fund and will terminate the reinsurance contract.
MNG needed to hold capital in case Rothesay could not honour the reinsurance contract and this will release about £100m for MNG to count towards its capital generation target.

Pleasing to see the strength in HK yesterday and today. It would have been easy to have a 5% fall yesterday and with the US closed a risk off day today.
Good signs of HK sentiment towards Hutchmed.

Not good….downward trend seems to be accelerating

Sales up 13.4%, marking up 50bps.
Sell the news….creates a buying opportunity

Tazverik does not feature in the 2025 list of treatments.
The ph3 has two parts a 12m combo treatment then. 2 year maintenance….the first phase should read out in 2023.

Recent driver is more likely to be
SA(vo)CHI(na) is up and running which was subject to regulator approval. .it is a 250 pt study measuring progression free survival. Median PFS seems to be the earliest indicator….2023 read out?

Oops…sorry for that last thought. Although I somehow doubt it was the trigger for the US selling to commence.

Down 70% over a year mcap USD 360m
Under 3.50 was over 6 when the tazverik deal was done.

At the moment the option is under deep water. If the results look positive in early indications they might be able to buy the worldwide rights or even the whole of epizyme for less than future milestone and royalty payments. It all depends how much trouble epizyme is in.

Mixed results. Higher death claims offset by better AUM.
SA going into its summer will help the covid situation…not buying but will be interesting to see what the market reaction is to these numbers and today’s presentation.

EV say 820 equity and 320 debt total 1140.

Services EBITDA is 33
Product EBITDA is 90
If services is valued at 15x =495
Value of product = 645 a@ multiple of 7.
Not a slam dunk for PE to take over and make a lot of cash from.

Rothesay is backing 11-40 year mortgages via Kensington.
Looks good to me. When I bought my house 30 years ago a 5y fix was 6.99%

Thanks Tacly, it seems an extreme reaction for this v early stage asset.

And the presentation deck used last week has been loaded on the website.

Huge volume in HK this morning 3.5m, 8x average.
11%gain….how much will hold by the time the US opens.

You are not going mad SD235 prices do sometimes display like this, I suspect it is caused by auctions to clear stock….of course you can’t deal at these prices.

The marginal revenue of 3/6/9 months of revenue from Prufund on a platform is marginal. Advisors can put clients into PruFund off platform…they just have to do a bit more admin and can’t see client holdings in one place….MNG will make most of its money from shareholder transfers that are backended and some admin platform charge now…and is not a big deal.
Of course whether putting PruFund on the M&G wealth Platform may also drive more assets onto the platform but this is unproven.

What s perhaps more important is perception of management and the company….
There have been difficulties with major change in M&G and the platform….so it is to be welcomed that the priority is to have a good quality service from the outset over chasing extra revenue at any cost, including reputations costs.
That said management came to market promising growth it needs to find some in 2022.