Member Info for Jatw

Eps heading for 9p, capital at 17% well above target all point to a buy back and divi raise….
Still looking cheap….but they have since 2008.

£90 seems to be a strong resistance level.
But higher than last year before the alexion deal surprised the market….and the conflict with the EU over vaccines.
Looking forward to strong FY results in Feb and then a further advance beyond £100…although that partly depends on the GDP USD exchange rate as this is a global company with most revenue in USD.

More positive news about the pipeline today with 523 going straight into a registration study. The supporting data to be presented in a few weeks in America.
If all goes well that should complete early 2023, NDA late 2023 approval late 2024 and sales in 2025.

As shown by that indicative timetable, the main risk for HCM is competition moving the standard of care on (which is a good thing for patients) but it could limit the returns on investments.

We seem to be in a sectoral slump at the moment - only 6 months to go to the PDUFA date for surufatinib in the US. The first of many significant dates, but one that will confirm HCMs potential.

Not sure what you think you want to achieve……

There are plenty of ways of trading without owning shares that have the same effect…….options and Cfds not to mention gambling sites…..

The recent share price performance has been disappointing to say the least. However the backdrop is that Hang Seng is down 11% in the last 6 months. Smaller pharma s and HCM partners Innovent down 18% and Junshi down 54% in the same period.
What is behind this? China policy, credit concerns, need to raise funds in the future? Small portfolio of drug candidates. Cost inflation?

HCM is well funded…it needs NDAs to be made and approved….and commercial sales success in China and Then US.
A trading update with an uplift in the sales guidance would be welcome.

As you say, most likely tweaking the balance sheet for capital eligibility requirements in HK.
I would expect expansion in Africa and some deals in single Asian markets for asset management and insurance where they are sub-scale.

Rothesay said to be working with a major UK bank to issue long term fixed rate mortgages of 20-30yrs.
Advantage over Lifetime mortgages is there is no negative equity guarantee associated and regular repayment of interest and capital…..wonder why no one has thought of it before?
Bonds must be looking risky / little yield.

Proleukin should be depreciated…surprised a write down was not taken this year.
Like the services business…limited capital required, easy to scale and they keep signing new contracts….would be good to know the fees by contract to see f they are signing big deals.

BOA has reduced its holding this week 8.3% down to 6.8%…..no deal emerging..

With most of the debt at a 5.25% coupon I am surprised they call it high coupon….surely there is a better use of expensive shareholder capital.

Maybe their statements alongside trading updates (which are good numbers) confuse people.
Strong us companion animal business but they don’t know why. (July)
Latest still trading well but not confident to extrapolate forwards…..
Why say anything?

I have sold my largest holding once my broker laid out the costs of dealing in the future.
For a £650 holding they would be UK broker fee min£20, SA broker fee min £38 and a custodian fee of £15….more than 10% of the unbundled NEDBANK shares.
Likely to buy back post the unbundling for direct exposure to African insurance and savings.

Where Beigene goes, I expect HCM to follow eventually. HCM will need to start building another new factory by 2025 and outside China would be a sensible diversification of production…of course that only works if the raw ingredients ( APIs) are also manufactured outside China.
Anyway…we all hope for a positive FDA result, EU MAA and eventually Japan….Beigene teamed up with Clinigen to market their product in unlicensed form across multiple territories…..we wait and see how HCM will go to market outside China and the USA where there are sizeable markets to go for but more fragmented in regulatory environments and provision.

The problem with evergrande and other Chinese property debt is not the write off (borne by client funds) rather credibility of ASHM credit analysis capability in their area of EM bonds…..
Are they experts or do they unwittingly just take more risk with other peoples money?

No reason to buy ashm or invest in their funds until the situation becomes clearer….so expect the drift down to continue or worsen..

I think April 2022 and the FDA decision about sulanda in the USA.
While the company appears confident it has agreed a route to approval with China data plus a bridging study, this seems to me to be a short cut that ultimately the FDA could reject in favour of more studies. While this may be a low probability event it must be high impact if it occurs…..
Which is why the US reg team earn big bucks….hoping they can manage this risk effectively.

The third country referred to is most likely the UK…..setting the scene for future contracts with AZ.
Reliance on China for PPE supplies and Active Pharma Ingredients only really relevant for pandemic and large scale whole population exercises where generics are needed as cheap alternatives….I wonder how many expensive drugs have been in short supply.?can’t believe there will be an oncology drug shortage any time soon.

Clearly the market is not in the mood for a further up rating without evidence of profitable growth and capital generation.
The capital position has been improving hence I suspect the trigger will be dividends but management said their larger investors were happy with reinvestment in the business….so we have a stand off at present…..

I had three holdings. I have sold the smaller two as the unbundling seemed unlikely to be beneficial for them (too small).

NEDBANK shares are currently about 850p which will be about £11 for an £82 holding.
I took the view that a 2000 holding would create a £220 holding in NEDBANK which is too small to retain….

Buying for their investors….rather than stake building…..all the asset managers have cross holdings in each other held by their investment funds….nothing to see here folks….move along please.
The FCA will be all over these holdings to ensure they are fair to clients and the FMs are not privy to confidential information about SDR plc.

This is harder given the cat is out of the bag…SDR did look at a bid for MNG…they would have had to pay 270-300, now maybe only 250p….and if they can get it for new SDR shares it would represent something of a bargain……

The HK listing seems t be having a positive effect with Pru rising as London financials decline.
Close to 1500 now.

Now they have cash on the balance sheet, The stated aim is to retire high coupon debt will they be tempted to make a bolt on acquisition and retire less debt and refinance some at lower rates?

Plenty of growth to occur is Asia and Africa.

Looking cheap again….must admit I did not expect to be buying at under 500p again.
I continue to add.